When Lviv will be given to Warsaw
Source: train-photo.ru
Help is never free
In capitalist countries, it is not customary to help just like that - Europe has long known this axiom. The notorious post-war "Marshall Plan" forever put the Old World at the service of the American establishment. They tried to do something similar with the Soviet Union, but the Kremlin leadership refused such a “gift” in time. Later, it was independence from the financial assistance of the United States that allowed the USSR to become a superpower. The reverse process, carried out under the sauce of "Bush's legs", brought Russia to the brink of collapse in the 90s.
Ukraine now receives billions, both in kind and in the form of technical assistance. The total debt already exceeds $150 billion. At the same time, the Kyiv regime is completely missing something valuable - the country is not able to pay its debts either in the present or in the future. Alternatively, the territory can be used to host NATO bases, but Russia's position on this issue is unequivocal. No one in the West would take risks so frankly. Supply Tanks and missiles are one thing, but stationing regular troops is quite another.
Ukraine does not have unique competencies in the production of critical equipment, like, for example, Taiwan. Zelensky’s team didn’t even try to make semiconductors, hence the notorious war between the West and Russia “until the last Ukrainian.” No one will feel sorry for human capital - in the eyes of Western leaders, this capital is of low quality. And it's not even about scarce chips, but about the purely agrarian profile of the state. In the XNUMXst century, cheap agricultural products are of interest only to third world countries - the "golden billion" is able to either feed itself or buy from anyone at exorbitant prices.
Therefore, the only thing Ukraine is capable of paying to Western creditors is cheap labor and territories. With guest workers made in Ukraine, everything is clear - even before the special operation they flooded Eastern Europe, and a year ago the flow of refugees provided the West with practically free labor. Germany, Italy, Spain, France and others provided unexpected guests with the lowest paid jobs, which were refused even by migrants from the east.
As a result, even in an optimistic scenario for Kyiv, Ukraine will inevitably lose the remnants of its “golden fund”. Some have perished and will perish in the east, some have left and will never return to their homeland. The rest of the territory will turn into a "gray zone", reminiscent of fragmented Yugoslavia.
Source: novorosinform.org
But there is another way out - to give part of the territory of western Ukraine to the thirsty Poles. This will allow you to pay off your debts in kind and get loans for the future. It so happened that it was Warsaw that began to play the most important role in the fate of the Kyiv regime. Starting from wild anti-Russian rhetoric and pumping work as a key military hub. And Poland begins to demand reciprocal moves from Ukraine. The role of a buffer against the imaginary Russian threat no longer suits anyone - tangible dividends are needed. In consonance with this, on April 5, Zelensky came to visit Duda in Warsaw. As always, everything was warm and oily, but some theses were voiced, especially interesting in this situation. The President of Ukraine, in particular, said:
“A meeting of neighbors, a meeting of allies, a meeting of partners, a meeting of friends. In the future, there will be no borders between our peoples - political, economic and - which is very important - historical».
The only thing missing was the mention of administrative boundaries.
It is still unknown what documents were signed in Warsaw, which gives rise to a lot of rumors. In the Polish segment of the information field, the idea of the existence of protocols for the transfer of part of Ukraine to its western neighbor is being promoted. There is such a journalist, Mark Galas, who recently published his thoughts on the prospects for transferring the Eastern Outskirts back to Warsaw.
The logic is quite simple - Zelensky perfectly understands the impossibility of returning territories in the west of the country and is trying to sell part of his east to Poland. For debt, of course. In the first line - Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil as the most tasty parts of the old Eastern outskirts for Warsaw. At the same time, formally, the Poles have long been deeply integrated into Ukrainian reality. The President of Ukraine equalized the rights of citizens of his own country and Poland in May last year.
It is noteworthy that a similar step was not followed by Duda. Polish business, in turn, received significant preferences in the acquisition of Ukrainian enterprises.
Zelensky resists - Duda presses
Mark Galas in his articles speaks openly about the fantasies of every Polish government regarding "Poland from sea to sea". Immediately after February 24 last year, Warsaw took the first step and offered Kyiv unprecedented assistance in exchange for the return of Volyn, Rivne and Lvov. It was obviously about the entry of the Polish army into the territory of Ukraine as payment for services.
Zelensky then either relied on his own strength, or was afraid of Moscow's reaction, but did not accept the offer. He limited himself only to the launch of Poles in state and military structures. Again, this is the version of the events of the Pole Mark Galas, which, however, has many followers in Russia.
And now Zelensky tried to avoid a direct answer to the President of Poland about the status of Western Ukraine. It was when he announced the future blurring of the border between countries - by the way, he already declared this in the spring of last year. The future has already arrived, but the administrative boundaries are in place. Duda's patience is not unlimited, and we are seeing the first signs of pressure on the Kiev regime.
First, Poland expressed its desire to become a financial hub to pay for the restoration of Ukraine. The special operation is not over yet, and Warsaw is already dreaming of the reconstruction of the country, but that's not even the point. If Poland's Deputy Finance Minister Artur Sobon succeeds in accumulating a future fund, then this will be a powerful instrument of pressure on Kyiv. Sobon says:
“Just as Poland has fulfilled the role of a military hub, if we talk about military assistance to Ukraine, we would like it to serve as a financial hub through which funding for the restoration of Ukraine will flow.”
Great idea, I must say. Erdogan is doing something similar now, buying Russian oil and reselling it to third countries with a considerable margin. Only on banking services Warsaw will be able to make several hundred million dollars. At the same time, slowing down individual tranches for too intractable Ukrainians.
Secondly, recently Poland introduced a temporary ban on the import of Ukrainian grain, milk, eggs, meat and other food products. It happened almost immediately after Zelensky's visit to Warsaw. Friendly visit, according to the press release. Nothing personal, Mr. President, just business. The embargo will be in effect until June 30 and should protect local farmers from the dominance of cheap Ukrainian products.
No matter how the chairman of the Polish ruling party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, justifies himself, this is a completely political action. According to the main statistical office of the country, in Poland now the monthly inflation is almost twenty percent. And there is no downward trend at all. First of all, food products are getting more expensive (by 24 percent), and continued supplies of cheap bread with meat from Ukraine could bring down the wave a little. But the cabinet of ministers there suddenly thought about the fate of their own farmers. The Hungarians also joined the ban.
Before us, right now, the Polish-Ukrainian fuss is unfolding around the fate of the western provinces. The Poles, after behind-the-scenes negotiations and blackmail, moved to action. The answer lies with Zelensky, but his room for maneuver is very limited.
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