Military Review

US military expert: Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome

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US military expert: Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome

The failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive could be disastrous for the Kyiv regime. However, both success and failure will significantly weaken the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


So argues a US military expert, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, in an article published by 19FortyFive.

He believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will inevitably lose combat capability after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome. They will be significantly weakened and become vulnerable.

A failed offensive could leave the Ukrainian armed forces in such a weakened state that they are unlikely to survive the rest of the year as a cohesive force. A successful offensive can also weaken them so much that they become vulnerable to a Russian counterattack.

- the expert believes.

In addition, he assumes, preparing for counter-offensive actions, the Ukrainian command will finally exhaust its mobilization resource. Because of this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will actually cease to exist as a real combat force. Thus, the Kiev regime, the expert believes, will be able to rely only on the National Guard.

And although the author admires the stubbornness of the Ukrainian military, he argues that the disruption of the counteroffensive is not the worst thing that can happen to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He believes that the transition of the Ukrainian army to active operations is a big risk factor for Zelensky and his generals. Davis is confident that both the success and failure of the counteroffensive will lead the Kiev regime to military defeat.
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29 comments
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  1. oleg-nekrasov-19
    oleg-nekrasov-19 April 5 2023 12: 30
    +1
    It is not the counter-offensive itself that is important, but its media component, the American military expert probably forgot who Kyiv's "teachers" are.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 April 5 2023 12: 41
      +3
      How will the media and so on help them when they quickly roll back?
      There used to be lovers of winning in words, only on the battlefield they were kicked specifically when they faced real power, and not the media troops of talkers.
      1. oleg-nekrasov-19
        oleg-nekrasov-19 April 5 2023 12: 58
        +1
        after all this chatter about "invincibility" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is "kicked", it will go to "no", it will burst like a soap bubble, but as long as there is a need to report to the owner for the money invested, there will be all these loud statements, assurances and promises. I think Russian intelligence, of course, discards all this "husk" and has real numbers, dates and facts.
        1. Machito
          Machito April 5 2023 13: 54
          0
          Ukrovermacht is really in the position of zugzwang: wherever you throw it, there is a wedge everywhere. Should this be surprising? There are really few people on this planet with common sense in their heads who are ready to fight the Russians.
          Take it by yourself
          To avoid falling while walking. (C) Brother.
      2. orionvitt
        orionvitt April 5 2023 14: 25
        +3
        Quote: rocket757
        How will the media and so on help them when they quickly roll back?

        I don’t know who will go where, they will just sit in the cities. And any city is, in fact, a ready-made fortified area.
        1. rocket757
          rocket757 April 5 2023 15: 15
          +1
          This is understandable, the city is ready to fortify the area, BUT, in order to keep it, resources are also needed, different and not few!
    2. Alien From
      Alien From April 5 2023 12: 46
      +5
      Don't underestimate the Khikhel, we already know what they are capable of.
    3. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 April 5 2023 12: 55
      +1
      Quote: oleg-nekrasov-19
      It is not the counteroffensive itself that is important, but its media component,

      He blurted out like a god) That is, if as a result the counterattacks occupy Moscow, is this nonsense?) It's nice to see a person who has categorically broken with reality and lives completely on the phone. By the way, are you windy there?)
      In fact, this very counter-offensive will end with the fact that we will have a large increase in prisoners who will have to be fed, and Ukraine will shrink its territory very much. Maybe the territory will generally be about a kilometer around Lviv. Should we not pay our Ukrainian debts by terminating the legal existence of "Nenka"?
      You see, there is still a reality beyond the boundaries of your phone screen. And she continues to exert her harmful effect on cozy network publics ...
      1. Andrei Nikolaevich
        Andrei Nikolaevich April 5 2023 13: 30
        +1
        We have historically, like to feed the vanquished. They themselves lived in barracks, and fed Germany.
    4. credo
      credo April 5 2023 12: 59
      +2
      In addition, he assumes, preparing for counter-offensive actions, the Ukrainian command will finally exhaust its mobilization resource. Because of this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will actually cease to exist as a real combat force. Thus, the Kiev regime, the expert believes, will be able to rely only on the National Guard.

      Trying to analyze American "experts" is pointless and counterproductive, especially when such an expert claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness in any case, but one can rely on the National Guard of Ukraine (in 2015, it is about 60 thousand people).
      Apparently American experts know more and better than anyone.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 April 5 2023 12: 38
    +2
    US military expert: Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome
    . Standard situation... Any counter will come and so on, will deplete the accumulated saloreihu resources and very quickly. This is not Newton's binomial, everything is clear to everyone in advance ...
  3. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek April 5 2023 12: 41
    +5
    What I wrote about. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, even with a positive outcome of the offensive, will lose a bunch of equipment and people and resources. In the absence of aviation, artillery will take on x2 or x3 load. This is the consumption of both barrels and shells. And the occupied territory will still need to be retained. And the Russian Federation has fresh divisions and equipment and aviation ....
    1. parma
      parma April 5 2023 12: 46
      -3
      Quote: Zaurbek
      What I wrote about. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, even with a positive outcome of the offensive, will lose a bunch of equipment and people and resources. In the absence of aviation, artillery will take on x2 or x3 load. This is the consumption of both barrels and shells. And the occupied territory will still need to be retained. And the Russian Federation has fresh divisions and equipment and aviation ....

      We hear such conversations for a year, but so far only we have done panicky “regroupings” ...
      1. Zaurbek
        Zaurbek April 5 2023 13: 10
        +1
        Leaving territory and attacking equipped positions are two different things. On the same Kherson before leaving, how many attacks were there?
        1. parma
          parma April 5 2023 13: 22
          -1
          Quote: Zaurbek
          Leaving territory and attacking equipped positions are two different things. On the same Kherson before leaving, how many attacks were there?

          Less than in Artemivsk/Bakhmut... in fact, in the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fought back every day in a village or two, and then ours retreated... where is the guarantee that now they will do it differently?...
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 5 2023 12: 42
    +2
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine will inevitably lose combat capability after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome
    But the American expert is right. The Armed Forces of Ukraine collect the best (l / s, Western equipment) in order to finally show the West that it is not wasting money and weapons on them. But when attacked, this "best" will turn into a mountain of corpses and a pile of iron. How long will it take then to try to create something else like this for the next meat grinder? Year, two? And will the West agree after that to the next deliveries to the "black hole".
    1. NDR-791
      NDR-791 April 5 2023 12: 49
      +1
      Quote: rotmistr60
      But the American expert is right.

      And they (who are retired) always tell the truth, they have nothing to lose. True, instead of processed "fat", Europe can supply Polish freshness. But it will not be for long - it’s not for them to reign in Kressy, but to rot in the field.
  5. igorbrsv
    igorbrsv April 5 2023 12: 44
    0
    . Davis is confident that both the success and failure of the counter-offensive will lead the Kiev regime to military defeat.

    And this seems to be true. The mobilization resource has been exhausted. The plan to mobilize 250 could not be carried out in any way. Not to mention that daily replenishment equals daily "decrease"
  6. Entropy
    Entropy April 5 2023 12: 45
    -1
    Just do not google other forecasts of this "expert", otherwise you will be upset
  7. corpse
    corpse April 5 2023 12: 48
    -1
    Red line?
    Shoigu spoke about the possible transfer of US long-range missiles to Ukraine
    https://ria.ru/20230404/rakety-1862866627.html
  8. zloybond
    zloybond April 5 2023 12: 49
    0
    In general, it is not clear for what purpose the opinions of someone are issued with such enthusiasm. Some kind of dance with pots on your head. The battle has not yet begun, and already everyone feels sorry for the APU for its loss.
  9. dump22
    dump22 April 5 2023 12: 58
    0
    Davis is confident that both the success and failure of the counteroffensive will lead the Kiev regime to military defeat.


    And this is without a doubt.
    This is such a feature of modern military conflicts.
    Even a military victory (as well as, of course, defeat) in modern military conflicts inevitably leads later to actual defeat.
    The United States defeated Iraq and, despite a quick victory, got out of there in disgrace.
    The US completely occupied Afghanistan, even established a friendly government, but then got out of there in disgrace.
    NATO completely defeated Libya and then abandoned it in disgrace.
    Etc
  10. APASUS
    APASUS April 5 2023 13: 00
    +1
    The fact is that the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 50% composed of the media component.
  11. spirit
    spirit April 5 2023 13: 09
    +3
    There was something similar in 1918, the last offensive of the Germans finally finished them off and the front collapsed after a couple of months. But this is a war, there are risks everywhere, but you can, and vice versa, scatter the enemy’s front with one blow, especially when there is confusion and vacillation in its ranks due to incomprehensible statuses and the goals of the operation, where the soldier, not particularly understanding why he is fighting to keep the defense, especially the mobile, will not be very stubborn. So the offensive in any case will be very dangerous hi
  12. Ezekiel 25-17
    Ezekiel 25-17 April 5 2023 13: 10
    -1
    Quote: Mikhail3
    Quote: oleg-nekrasov-19
    It is not the counteroffensive itself that is important, but its media component,

    He blurted out like a god) That is, if as a result the counterattacks occupy Moscow, is this nonsense?) It's nice to see a person who has categorically broken with reality and lives completely on the phone. By the way, are you windy there?)
    In fact, this very counter-offensive will end with the fact that we will have a large increase in prisoners who will have to be fed, and Ukraine will shrink its territory very much. Maybe the territory will generally be about a kilometer around Lviv. Should we not pay our Ukrainian debts by terminating the legal existence of "Nenka"?
    You see, there is still a reality beyond the boundaries of your phone screen. And she continues to exert her harmful effect on cozy network publics ...

    There is a lot of work in Russia: Donbass needs to be restored, railways need to be built, again, polar bears need to be fed.
  13. Palestinian
    Palestinian April 5 2023 13: 15
    -1
    bingo .. which was required to prove)))
  14. VladimirNET
    VladimirNET April 5 2023 13: 40
    0
    Quote: parma
    We hear similar conversations for a year ...

    Before - we didn’t have planning bombs, we’re fixing it ...
  15. yuriy1863
    yuriy1863 April 5 2023 14: 12
    +2
    US military expert: Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome

    If we analyze the state of affairs with the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive according to available publications in the media, then we really get the impression that the Ukrainian strike group is counting on the "disposability". Weapons, weapons and military equipment are extremely diverse, the minimum time in the preparation of firing crews and crews, the establishment of restrictions on the use and maintenance of this equipment (the situation with the "Challengers"). It seems that the "Western partners" are trying to achieve two main goals for themselves. The first goal is to weaken Russia as much as possible, undermine its already frail economy, and at the same time bring discord and confusion into Russian society. The second is to squeeze all the juice out of Ukraine, disassemble it piece by piece, transferring part of the territory to its satellites, part (most affected by hostilities) to Russia, and on the remnants to mold a puppet formation with the capital in Kiev. As a result: NATO is even further to the East, through a buffer pad under the "Ukraine" nameplate, and Russia is all in trouble: it is raking up economic and social problems not only on its original territory, but also on newly acquired ones. In addition, he is also fighting local terrorists from the "bander underground". Therefore, now we need the scenario "Kursk Bulge 2.0": to withstand, recapture, defeat. Yes, to defeat so that not a single European hyena would even dare to think of crawling over the western border of present-day Ukraine.
  16. _Ugene_
    _Ugene_ April 5 2023 16: 44
    0
    US military expert: Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose combat effectiveness after their counter-offensive, regardless of its outcome
    and even these experts a year ago told how many weeks Russia would capture all of Ukraine in the event of an attack