American press: Kyiv will not be able to launch an offensive involving massive air strikes

Despite the training of soldiers and the supply of Western-made military equipment, the Ukrainian army will not be able to launch a large-scale offensive in the style of NATO forces, involving massive air strikes.

According to the American edition of the Wall Street Journal, in order to break through the echeloned defense lines equipped by the Russian army, as the Ukrainian command expects to do, the armed forces of the United States and its allies would launch an offensive with a massive air strike using aviation and cruise missiles.

However, given the extremely limited number of fighter jets and combat helicopters at the disposal of the Ukrainian army, according to Western analysts, the Kiev regime is unlikely to risk them in frontal attacks.

According to experts, even in the case of mass deliveries of Western fighter models to the Ukrainian army, the Kiev regime does not have the infrastructure necessary for the deployment and successful use of fighters. It will take a long time to restore destroyed or create new infrastructure facilities, but the Kiev regime currently does not have the resources necessary for such large-scale projects. In addition, the Ukrainian army is experiencing a shortage of pilots who have undergone the training necessary for successful attacks.

Despite Western press reports about the deplorable state of Ukrainian military aviation, there is more and more information that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to replace massive airstrikes with massive attacks. drones-kamikaze.

Comments

[dmi.pris1]

The offensive last autumn was carried out with minimal aviation activity all the way. They have a different tactic - they tear the defenses in several places with armored groups and leave to smash the rear. They still hope for this. The question is about the stability of our defense six months ago and now.

[alexander 66]

Syrsky is not a genius, he took advantage of the grossest mistakes of the generals and their stupidity. The lack of troops, the stupidity and stupidity of the command, the supporters without communication, and as it happened in these conditions, only the lazy will not break through. the Ukrainian is preparing for real and the blow will be serious and very strong, maybe on Belgorod as a distraction, there are troops with a gulkin nose.

[koramax81]

Were there any mistakes? Perhaps you do not know everything, sitting by the sofa?. I, as a participant in those events, have a slightly different attitude to what happened

[dmi.pris1]

Well, share with us, sofas, your experiences, thoughts about ..

[voyaka uh]

"Syrsky is not a genius, he took advantage of the grossest mistakes .."
---
It's called professionalism.
Spot the enemy's mistakes and take advantage of them.
Wagnerovsky Prigozhin wrote about the Armed Forces of Ukraine, briefly:
"this is the regular army,
who fights right."
Hinting that they need to learn.

[nik-mazur]

Quote from: dmi.pris1

They have a different tactic - armored groups tear the defense in several places and leave to smash the rear

And this tactic worked solely because of the lack of defense. Moreover, even the rear did not particularly succeed in smashing - the offensive impulse was just enough to occupy the territory left practically without a fight. And where ours rested, the offensive immediately stalled.
That is, the question is not whether ours can stop the offensive - most likely they can at any time, in any place - the question is the price ...

[dmi.pris1]

The question of price? In the previous article there was a comment about leaving the right bank and Kherson. They took pity on the military, civilians they say. ...

[nik-mazur]

Quote from: dmi.pris1

It's not about feeling sorry for someone.

Yes, I didn’t say anything about pity. The question, of course, is not in pity, but in minimizing losses ...

[Maz]

Quote from: dmi.pris1

The offensive last autumn was carried out with minimal aviation activity all the way. They have a different tactic - they tear the defenses in several places with armored groups and leave to smash the rear. They still hope for this. The question is about the stability of our defense six months ago and now.

Now the situation is completely different, we have an echeloned defense saturated with engineering structures, minefields, targeted areas, and an organized rear. Advantage in tanks, art, aviation, Reb, reconnaissance, air defense, RSZO, ... attack such a defense saturated with anti-tank weapons. It's a job for suicidal people. And the experience of the son of difficult mistakes is still available. And there is an example from whom to take and learn from experience - from the fighters and commanders of the PMC Wagner. So, sho our cause is just, the enemy will be defeated, victory will be ours!

[tralflot1832]

You can’t do much with UAVs, but with Chimeras and with bombs launched from the ground, we may have problems if they assemble them into a shock fist.

[VOVA30930]

In the original article in the WSJ, it was written that way. Emphasis on precision-guided weapons and guided munitions.
The author has already added about the emphasis on drones.

[Magog_]

but Chimeras and bombs

The last example with the use of Pole-21 electronic warfare in the Tula region gives hope for successful methods of dealing with a swarm of projectiles guided by satellite target designation systems. "Field-21" has a radius of influence of 25 km.

[solar]

an example with the use of electronic warfare "Field-21" in the Tula region

raises big questions. The basis of Strizh's control was initially an inertial navigation system, satellite can only play a supporting role there. And it is impossible in principle to influence the INS with the help of electronic warfare. Rather, Strizh himself fell due to a breakdown.

[Magog_]

satellite there can only play a supporting role

Until now, it seemed to me the other way around: the inertial one directs the projectile in advance, and the satellite turns on at the final guidance site, providing high accuracy ... I don’t understand how it works in your view? Why is "preliminary / initial / rough" guidance your main - justify?

[nik-mazur]

Quote: tralflot1832

if they collect them in a shock fist

Given the number of those Chimeras, as well as tanks and other equipment, the fist will turn out to be very small. Again, detecting and destroying concentrated vehicles is easier.
So the hope is to collect equipment very quickly in one place, to break through at least a minimal gap in the defense, and then fill it up with cannon fodder. Actually, as it was in the Kharkiv region ...

[tlauicol]

They will not break through the defense, but will strike where there is none.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Tlauicol

they will not break through the defense, but will strike where it does not exist

And where do we have no defense?

[fif21]

Quote: Tlauicol

They will not break through the defense, but will strike where there is none.

And if they wait for the offensive of the RF Armed Forces? Saturating your troops with equipment and personnel. They talk about counter-offensive, but this is different from offensive. First offensive, zarub in defense, and then counter-offensive. Or am I wrong?

[Rosemary]

Quote from: nik-mazur

So the hope is to collect equipment very quickly in one place, to break through at least a minimal gap in the defense, and then fill it up with cannon fodder. Actually, as it was in the Kharkiv region ...

There was no "filling up with meat" in the Kharkov region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine found gaps in the defense in advance, where the mobilized without heavy weapons stood, through which they entered.
And then, in full accordance with the doctrine of mobile warfare, the Ukrainian combat groups went forward, bypassing the centers of stubborn resistance and capturing only those settlements where they did not meet any resistance.
On the very first day, our bypassed units lost communication and normal command and control of troops. And the bypassed units, under other conditions, capable of resisting for a long time and stubbornly, were forced to retreat under the threat of encirclement and complete destruction, often without even really entering into battle with the Ukrainians.

[Herman 4223]

Mobilization began after the Kharkov events. And how it all happened, we will find out a little later.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Rosemary

There was no "filling up with meat" in the Kharkiv region

And what was there? Advantage in armored vehicles, artillery and aviation, or what?

Quote: Rosemary

groped for gaps in the defense, where the mobilized stood without heavy weapons

So this is the lack of defense.

Quote: Rosemary

bypassed units ... capable of resisting for a long time and stubbornly, were forced to retreat under the threat of encirclement ... without even really entering into battle with the Ukrainians

And the threat of encirclement arose not due to the fact that there was too much cannon fodder from the Ukrainian side?
By the way, ours could defend themselves - for example, in Balakleya, a company of the National Guard held out for three days before retreating - but this would lead to noticeable losses.

[rocket757]

American press: Kyiv will not be able to launch an offensive involving massive air strikes

Despite Western press reports about the deplorable state of Ukrainian military aviation, there is more and more information that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to replace massive air strikes with massive attacks by kamikaze drones.

Guess, don't guess... let's wait and see.
However, it is necessary to prepare for any development of events, whatever happens ... "we did not prepare for this."

[dmi.pris1]

Yes, winter always comes unexpectedly for public utilities. The main thing is that the military should not take an example from them .. The old Russian "maybe" can play a cruel joke. I hope this will not happen

[rocket757]

It has already happened and this is just the option when you shouldn’t, you can’t follow the saying - repetition is the mother of learning!

[Neo-9947]

I hope this doesn't happen

Why should 2023 be an exception to the thousand-year history of Rus'?
Our generals, as always, were preparing for the last war, they had never heard of drones.
- Network-centric warfare?
“Don't express yourself, Billy.
Communication in the troops is Chinese household radios, at their own expense with Ali, and the almighty TA-57. In short, the connection is at the level of 1941.
First aid kits, sights, armor, boots - what only the fighters did not complain about ....
Everything is as usual.
So there are no trends why this time everything will go differently.

[igorbrsv]

. Why should 2023 be an exception to the thousand-year history of Rus'?

And what's wrong with her?

[kakvastam]

If they start launching Swifts and Flights in batches, and even taking advantage of the preparations for the parade, they can create a lot of problems.
And that the parade is more important than the war, there can be no doubt, and the troops under it can be removed, and the places of their concentration can be protected by air defense calculations, which are completely unnecessary in other places.

[Magog_]

And that the parade is more important than the war, there can be no doubt

Seriously ? And why not use the current moment with the NWO to stop the practice of pompous parades on Victory Day? It’s just that on this day to hold a symbolic parade of historical restored military equipment, followed by an exhibition demonstration of it for everyone ... And the front passage of 2-3 regiments in uniform and with weapons from the Second World War. The main events on Victory Day should be: at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, at monuments, mass graves of our soldiers of that war throughout the country ... Parades of modern troops around the world are held in the so-called. "Independence Day", which does not make sense for Russia ... Our authorities quickly figured out this absurdity of "June 12" to be renamed "Russia Day" ... What day is then suitable for such a parade? I don't know. Think up.

[igorbrsv]

. If they start launching Swifts and Flights in batches

Swifts seemed to have only one squadron near Odessa. They were "modernized" last year - they were stuffed with TNT

[kakvastam]

There is another opinion: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/11127

[Herman 4223]

Stop the advance of the enemy, you can only your successful offensive. Guessing where the blow will be struck is an empty business, you can think of dozens of options. It is possible that the Americans themselves do not yet know exactly where to strike them. Therefore, I wish our military to break through the front somewhere in the near future and force them to deploy prepared enemy reserves to plug holes!

[Tim666]

Quote: Magog_

but Chimeras and bombs

The last example with the use of Pole-21 electronic warfare in the Tula region gives hope for successful methods of dealing with a swarm of projectiles guided by satellite target designation systems. "Field-21" has a radius of influence of 25 km.

Most precision-guided munitions - gmlrs, Excalibur have a redundant inertial guidance system. How can it be influenced by electronic warfare, can you explain?

[Magog_]

The inertial guidance system cannot provide high accuracy, such a projectile is no different from the ammunition of an advanced area-of-effect multiple launch rocket system. In order to effectively influence the enemy in this case, it will be necessary to proportionally increase the mass of the warhead depending on the firing range ..., i.e. reduce range, etc. It seems to be easy to understand. What's the question ?

[svp67]

Quote from Tim666

there is a duplicate inertial guidance system.

If everything was fine with this "duplicate" system, in terms of accuracy, then there would be no need to bother with installing a satellite system ... Worse, they are now installing new seekers that go to heat or a laser mark, that is, for confrontation need to use more funds

[Tim666]

Quote from: nik-mazur

Quote: tralflot1832

if they collect them in a shock fist

Given the number of those Chimeras, as well as tanks and other equipment, the fist will turn out to be very small. Again, detecting and destroying concentrated vehicles is easier.
So the hope is to collect equipment very quickly in one place, to break through at least a minimal gap in the defense, and then fill it up with cannon fodder. Actually, as it was in the Kharkiv region ...

You say that as if you know how many vehicles the Armed Forces of Ukraine have? According to your T-64, T-72, T-80, they will not go into battle. They are already producing shells 125, 152, sort of like in the Czech Republic, a factory in Kostenets in Bulgaria has been launched, which produced 122 and 152 for the police department, and something suggests that the shells will not go to Africa.