Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia was widely and enthusiastically covered in the Russian media. The reasons are obvious - in the face of Russia's opposition to the entire collective West, Moscow has no choice but to improve relations with China and the Asian powers, the notorious "pivot to the East." Many experts pin certain hopes on China, believing, in particular, that it will increase support for Russia in connection with the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine, and secretly or openly begin to provide military assistance.
Yesterday we heard a lot of beautiful words about Russian-Chinese friendship, that "the relations between China and Russia over the past ten years have become stronger and more stable, these are relations between two great powers." However, let's see what we have in the bottom line.
As a result of the meeting, 14 documents were signed, including 2 joint statements, 7 non-binding memorandums, two protocols (one of them on strengthening cooperation in the field of scientific research), 1 comprehensive program, an information exchange agreement and a cooperation agreement in the field of joint production of television programs.
That is, in fact, nothing serious was officially signed. Some experts and political scientists are already speculating about some secret agreements that could be concluded, and even that China could allegedly provide Russia with a full-fledged lend-lease. However, these statements are not supported by any facts, and it is not possible to verify them at the moment. If we assume that something similar was concluded, then we will learn about this a little later. However, it does not appear that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have reached any "breakthrough" agreements.
What were the true goals of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow? And why should Russia rely only on itself in a military conflict? These are the questions we will try to answer in this article.
On the purposes of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow
Russia became the first country visited by the President of China after being re-elected for a third term, in connection with which some analysts suggested that this was no accident, and Russian-Chinese friendship could sparkle with new colors, especially against the backdrop of the military conflict in Ukraine. Even some American media suspected that Xi Jinping "is going to get closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin" and can provide serious military support to Russia.
However, not all Western media adhered to this opinion, there were other assessments. In particular, the British newspaper The Sunday Times, on the eve of the visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow, published an article under the heading “Xi's Moscow mission is to ensure that there is one winner in the war in Ukraine - himself”, which stated that the main purpose of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow is to publicly demonstrate himself as a potential peacemaker.
“The meeting with President Putin on Monday and the virtual talks with President Zelensky are meant to look like an attempt to end the war in Ukraine. The Chinese leader would no doubt prefer the conflict to end rather than continue. In little more than a year, he damaged Chinese interests in various ways: energized NATO, undermined Beijing's efforts to establish diplomatic relations with Europe, weakened demand in key export markets, stepped up the rearmament of Japan, pushed the United States to supply weapon to Taiwan. However, Xi has a more pressing priority: his goal is to make sure Russia doesn’t lose.”
- writes the edition.
The journalists of the British newspaper believe that China fears that in the event of Russia's defeat in the military conflict in Ukraine, the Americans will turn their eyes to the Celestial Empire and designate it as the "main enemy", which is unfavorable for China.
“The most pressing issue for Beijing is the rapid deterioration of relations with the United States. Xi said this month that the US and its Western allies have embarked on a "comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression of China" campaign. Xi also wants to present himself as a great statesman, working tirelessly to promote world peace. He reportedly plans to call Zelenskiy shortly after talking to Putin. If he had acted differently, only footage of him shaking hands with the Russian leader and the impression that he was his assistant would have remained in the world ... Xi knows that Russia and Ukraine have no real prospects for upcoming negotiations, because neither of them is ready to give in. So all you have to do is position yourself as a potential peacemaker whenever the opportunity presents itself.”
– summarizes the publication.
This assessment of the British press, in the opinion of the author, is quite sound. It seems that Xi Jinping is really trying to present himself to Moscow and the world as a peacemaker and a possible mediator between Russia and the West. In addition, in terms of peacekeeping, the PRC has achievements - rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia through the direct mediation of China (read about this in the Military Review article: “The Beijing Accords: The Beginning of a New Political Era for the World"). Xi Jinping has already proposed his “peace plan” for Ukraine, and this plan, frankly, raises many questions.
Beijing's plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine
China proposed its 12-point peace plan back in February, calling for an end to hostilities and "abandoning the Cold War mentality." Moscow said yesterday that "the provisions of the Chinese peace plan can be taken as the basis for a settlement in Ukraine," but let's look at some of the points of this plan.
The first paragraph speaks of "respect for the sovereignty of all countries" and "observance of international laws, including the UN Charter", but without double standards. Moreover, it says that "the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be guaranteed." Following international law, the new territories of the Russian Federation are the territory of Ukraine, does this mean that the PRC offers Russia to surrender under Chinese guarantees?
The issue is debatable, some experts suggest reading this paragraph on “territorial integrity” in some other way, however, in my opinion, everything is said quite clearly there. The following paragraphs talk about abandoning the "cold war mentality", ending unilateral sanctions, a ceasefire, starting peace talks, supporting the safety of nuclear power plants and, interestingly, "grain export guarantees". According to the PRC, all parties must comply with the agreement on the transportation of grain across the Black Sea, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN in 2022.
It is no secret that China is one of the main consumers of Ukrainian grain, which is why Beijing, like Turkey, apparently insists that Russia strictly comply with the terms of the grain deal.
In general, the PRC's plan is "for all that is good, against all that is bad," but with by no means pro-Russian overtones. In general, one can agree with Colonel aviation retired Victor Alksnis, who, following Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow, noted that Vladimir Putin failed to convince Xi Jinping to support Russia.
“China offers Russia to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine by returning Crimea, Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to it. That is, China does not support Russia in this situation, but Ukraine. But for Russia, this means unconditional surrender, which, I hope, it will not accept. Therefore, one cannot count on the supply of military equipment and weapons from China. Moreover, China in paragraph 3 suggests:
“All parties must remain rational and show restraint, prevent the flames from fanning and tensions from escalating, and not allowing the crisis to escalate further or even spiral out of control.”
That is, there can be no question of any strategic offensive by our grouping, ”
“All parties must remain rational and show restraint, prevent the flames from fanning and tensions from escalating, and not allowing the crisis to escalate further or even spiral out of control.”
That is, there can be no question of any strategic offensive by our grouping, ”
Alksnis says.
Quite skeptical about the visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow is also the ex-minister of defense of the DPR, a retired FSB colonel Igor Strelkov (Girkin), who believes that the Chinese will try to persuade Moscow to their vision of a “peaceful settlement”, which does not correlate well with national the interests of Russia.
Why can Russia rely only on itself?
Based on the fact that the first country visited by President Xi Jinping after being re-elected was Russia, some analysts have suggested that Moscow has topped China's priority list. However, is this really true?
Xi knew full well that this visit would make a lot of noise in the media and annoy the Americans, but is he ready for a real increase in confrontation with the US? The well-known events in Taiwan have demonstrated to everyone that they are not ready, but maybe something has changed?
To answer the question about China's real priorities in politics, one should turn to the economy (the current policy has ceased to be politics as such and has long been tied to the economic component) - who are China's main trading partners at the moment?
At the end of 2022, China's three main trading partners were the European Union, the United States and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). China's trade with the European Union and the United States in 2022 amounted to $1,6 trillion, which is 8 times more than trade with Russia, which is $190 billion, according to China's customs statistics. Given that, as mentioned above, the role of the economic factor in modern politics has become total, it becomes obvious with whom relations are more important for China.
So far, there are no signs that the PRC is ready to go into open confrontation with the collective West. America and Europe have become China's main and fastest growing markets for goods, and China is important for the US as an export market. Therefore, it is hardly worth counting on the fact that China will go into open confrontation, risking running into trouble (as was the case during the presidency of Donald Trump, who imposed duties on Chinese goods). After all, even if Beijing secretly opens lend-lease for Russia and starts supplying ammunition or weapons, this will not be hidden from Western intelligence, and will not be able to remain a secret for the West for a long time.
In the conditions in which Russia finds itself, it is Beijing that Moscow needs more, and not Moscow that Beijing needs. After all, it was China that became Russia's main trading partner after a sharp reduction in imports from the EU. It is through China that a significant part of the electronics is purchased, and even the same drones and many other equipment needed by Russia. However, one cannot count on full-fledged friendship with China. China is first and foremost an important business partner, not a friend or ally.
Therefore, in the military conflict in Ukraine, Russia can only rely on itself.