Fergana Valley: what does an American colonel write about

On the American website eurasianet.org, which is related to Mr. Soros, the other day an article by Joshua Kuchera (Washington) appeared, which is a commentary on the report of Colonel of the Military College of the US Army Ted Donelly. The report of the military is devoted to the possible development of the situation in the Fergana Valley after the US and NATO troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan. Well-known analyst Alexander Shustov, after analyzing the text of the report and commentary to it, made a conclusion: Americans are not going to leave Afghanistan, but, on the contrary, expect to gain a firm foothold there for a long time.

Fergana Valley: what does an American colonel write about

In addition, the publication of the Donnelly report, as well as the lengthy commentary of a Washington journalist, led the analyst to a number of other reflections. In addition to maintaining their presence in Afghanistan, the United States probably intends to open a military base on the territory of Uzbekistan, which will work, for example, “under the roof” of the Transit Transportation Center: after all, plans to deploy special forces in the countries of Central Asia that will be engaged in ensuring the Northern network supply, the United States said more than three years ago - in September 2009 th. At the same time, the “program” in the Fergana Valley will be one of the keys to destabilize the region, and, consequently, Russia. (Not for nothing, add on my own, in the magazine «Turkish Weekly» express themselves considerations about the fact that, in the opinion of Western military experts, Moscow is expanding its radio intelligence programs in the Fergana Valley). Alexander Shustov therefore believes that the steps being taken by Russia to preserve and strengthen its military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan look absolutely necessary against this background.

Let us turn to the report to Mr. Donelly.

As is common with US strategists and tacticians, the colonel of the US Armed Forces Donelly states that the Fergana Valley is about to become a stronghold of terrorists - similar to what the tribal area of ​​Pakistan has become (“Territory of Federal Government Tribes”). Having made such a “sharp” statement, Mr. Donelly immediately called on Washington to actively develop local security cooperation in order to protect the region from the dangers of terrorism. The goal is very noble and extremely democratic.

In order not to stagnate on American values ​​alone, Mr. Colonel moved from the spiritual to the material. More precisely, to the military strategic. in the report noted:

“The region of Central Asian states since 2001 has played an important supporting role in Operation Enduring Freedom.” However, the current US military strategy is focused on the region only in the context of its operational significance attached to this operation. Inability to look at this region through the prism of a longer-term strategic perspective jeopardizes the process of achieving success in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international coalition troops, negatively affects the security and stability situation in the region and increases the likelihood of re-engagement of the US in the region’s affairs, and on the most undesirable conditions. ” .

And once the conditions can be “undesirable,” America must plan the outcome that will be convenient and beneficial for her. Having mentioned terrorism, Donnelly finds arguments that extremist groups, like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, will definitely take advantage of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The Americans will leave, and the terrorists will instantly establish themselves in the Fergana Valley: after all, the borders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cross this densely populated area.

Here, the colonel draws a parallel with the tribal zone of Pakistan, into which the Fergana Valley may well turn after the 2014 year.

“... Like the tribal zone, the future Fergana Valley will be a significant unmanaged territory, which will serve as a refuge, an incubator and a springboard for armed extremist groups and militants. The IMU and other extremist armed groups will begin to use this shelter, as well as their new rear areas in Afghanistan, to increase pressure from the Islamist rebels on the secular governments of Central Asian countries. ”

America must actively counter this threat. And donelly explains how. However, the colonel's proposals are not concrete.

He states that the Fergana Valley (“a strategic center of attraction for the region”) should be the centerpiece of a promising strategy, and stabilizing the situation here (meaning preventing any militant activity) is the first task for the United States. The first, he notes, and not just an integral part of the task with respect to the territory "where our bases are located and along which our supply corridors pass."

The colonel proposes to ensure the military component of security cooperation. In this context, Donelly proposes to invest in the strengthening of borders and the adoption of barrier measures to isolate the valley from the militants operating in Afghanistan. He also points to counter-terrorism measures that can be taken by units engaged in the fight against militants in the Fergana Valley and in the adjacent territories. A corresponding counter-narcotics activity is also needed, which will help stop the channels of financing extremist groups. At the same time, the colonel writes about the "liquidation of the consequences of various disasters", perhaps hinting at the likely Russian construction in the region of hydropower plants, as we know, not approved by seismologists from Nevada.

To avoid hostility and the strategy was not so costly, Mr. Donelly offers to connect Russia and China to it.

“... The United States should promote the idea of ​​connecting Russia, China, the SCO and the CSTO to the implementation of this regional strategy ...”

However, the Colonel of the US Armed Forces is a realist and does not count on Russia’s special assistance. He even talks about probable "resistance." However, the Russian-Chinese approach may have a “political, diplomatic and informational application.”

Journalist Kucera, commenting on the report, states that Donelly’s recommendations will not be implemented. Why? The journalist does not speak directly, but between the lines is read: the economic crisis. Obama is not in a hurry to go to Central Asia or to other places far from America. Hegemony is hegemony, and 16 with over trillions of dollars of debt is not a joke, no matter what the Fed specialists say and no matter how stable the convertible dollars are. The driver writes:

“... I argue the opposite: that the development of these programs is a direct consequence of the need for access to Afghanistan. So when the need for it disappears, I suspect that these security assistance programs will also be curtailed. In general, the United States is less and less willing to take part in some military aspects in remote corners of the world ... "

Meanwhile, the journalist shares the danger of extremism in the Fergana Valley with Donelly.

Let us ask ourselves a question: why does American Colonel Donnelly care so much about the Fergana Valley, if at the end of 2014, the United States must withdraw its troops from Afghanistan? Why talk about large strategic programs? Is it really so agitated the colonel activities of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan? Since when are the Americans, the ideologists of the “Arab Spring”, admirers of the theory of controlled chaos and the fathers of destabilization, preoccupied with Islamism near the borders with Russia? Yes, let it seem to be getting stronger!

Analyst A. Shustov believes that Donelly’s concern about the order in the valley and the local population is in line with the concerns of the US military regarding the operation of the Northern Supply Network: it is through her that the American forces in Afghanistan receive most of the military cargo. The main transit goes through Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, some deliveries are made through Tajikistan.

If the channel is blocked by the Islamists, the ISAF in the Hindu Kush will be isolated. This is what worries T. Donelly. He, Shustov writes, believes that Washington views Central Asia solely as a platform for ensuring actions in Afghanistan. This is not to say that the Fergana Valley is the “key” to the whole of Central Asia. Today there are the Sogd oblast of Tajikistan, the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken provinces of Kyrgyzstan, as well as the Uzbek Andijan, Namangan and Fergana provinces. Along with the lack of water and high population density, this area is also characterized by a high level of Islamization. In fact, the Fergana Valley is a powder keg of Central Asia. Bring just a match ...

Why should the United States stay in Afghanistan? Neither Kucera nor Colonel Donelly write anything about this. And in vain. They would reinforce their hypotheses, theses and democratic conclusions with some figures - the report and commentary would become clearer.

The fact is that only for the current year, according to the report of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, on the Afghan fields Was collected 3.700.000 tons of opium poppy - raw materials for the manufacture of heroin. THREE MILLION FAMILIES THOUSAND TONS. Compared to 2011 year, the acreage increased by almost 20% - from 131 thousands of hectares to 154 thousands. Today, four fifths of the total world crop of opium poppy is removed in Afghanistan.

Leave such plantations American makoroby not going. Especially at a time when the economic crisis is rampant in the world. That is why Americans need to gain a foothold in the Fergana Valley, thereby ensuring constant transit and marketing of the finished product.

When the Colonel of the US Armed Forces speaks about anti-drug trafficking activities, he seems to hint at a desirable monopoly for those who export “legally” heroin ...

Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
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    1. Brother Sarych
      27 November 2012 08: 54
      The valley, of course, is a potentially extremely dangerous region, and with its specificity - a very high population density! A not-so-good life, of course, contributes to the development of extremist sentiments, and resources do not change anything drastically - there is no and is not expected ...
      1. SSR
        27 November 2012 10: 24
        Quote: Brother Sarich
        Not a very good life, of course, contributes to the development of extremist sentiments

        Good day to you, Brother Sarych.
        Do not take my words as an insult, but today in this region the weakest link in Uzbekistan.
        With neighbors, relations with all are strained, it is the Uzbeks who are most susceptible to radical Islam, and it is in Uzbekistan that the people are intimidated by the "siloviki". (short)
        If I’m wrong and you can tell something new .... I will willingly and with great interest listen to you.
        (PS can be in PM)
        1. Brother Sarych
          27 November 2012 12: 37
          Uzbekistan is far from the weakest link in Central Asia, but the Valley is by far the weakest link in Uzbekistan! The fact that it is the Uzbeks who are subject to radical Islam - I strongly disagree, although there is fertile ground for this movement ...
          If we talk about weak links, they are unequivocal Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan a little stronger, and the most stable link is Turkmenistan - there are few people, a lot of resources, brains are completely washed out and it is much easier to control everyone without exception ...
      2. ughhh
        27 November 2012 11: 53
        Quote: Brother Sarich
        resources radically change something - no and not foreseen

        What to change? So that the poppies do not grow - it’s a week to fly on an airplane, to scatter the powder, there will not grow any more ... not grow.
        Gerych is used to destroy the masses of the population. The question is where? Judging by the fact that our government does not particularly interfere with the amers, either the gerach is not for Russia, or the government is working against us. Or simply can not interfere, but, again, it is not clear why.
        We are, as usual, in the role of a herd. Mooooo ...
        1. Brother Sarych
          27 November 2012 12: 41
          In Uzbekistan, in the Valley, especially poppies do not grow - there is nowhere to grow them, so as not to fall asleep! Heroin does not go through Uzbekistan with the bulk, it has calmer roads ...
          It’s not that ours wouldn’t want to make money on it, just the overhead would have increased many times during transportation! We have something to transport somewhere several orders of magnitude more difficult than our neighbors, even a completely legal cargo - everything is under control ...
          1. SSR
            27 November 2012 12: 54
            Quote: Brother Sarich
            even a completely legal cargo - everything is under control ...

            I just just recently chatted with guests from Andijan, and the left bank of Kara-su (Uzbek) so the guys speak badly about the Karimov family and about the security forces who rule on behalf of the authorities and that the worst crime is covered.
            I understand that certain egregious cases may occur in the Vatican.
            It just seemed like the farmers were very dissatisfied ... the citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan work at our place of work .. when they sit there they discuss well, like we all are in the kitchen)) and the Tajiks and Uzbeks blame Karimov for his daughters and security officials.
            1. SSR
              27 November 2012 14: 12
              PS, they also scold their own .. about the Kirghiz they generally say that they have "continuous goat-picking with revolutions." but they agree on one thing that the most closed and unfriendly is Uzbekistan. and in general, only silence about Kazakhstan ... and I can not say anything about Turkmenistan.
            2. in reserve
              27 November 2012 14: 40

              and about the siloviki who rule on behalf of the authorities and that the worst crime is covered.

              Since the days of the union, they have been roofing crime and there has always been a problem with drugs there.
              1. SSR
                27 November 2012 17: 04
                I read sometimes ... and it becomes clear through what cracks the USSR got through and collapsed, here Gorbachev and the security forces
    2. +1
      27 November 2012 08: 54
      thanks to the author! very interesting article.
    3. +3
      27 November 2012 09: 57
      How cute, the American military takes care of peace in the Ferghana Valley.
      Regarding terrorism, the IMU has been around for a long time, but their activities are constrained and sluggish. The only option is when the IMU and other terror. organizations can become more active if “someone” helps them with arms and finances.
      1. SSR
        27 November 2012 10: 28
        As is common with US strategists and tactics, Colonel American Sun Donelly says Ferghana Valley is about to become a stronghold of terrorists

        So this colonel is actually just talking about it ..
        in Syria, in Libya, the method has already been worked out with the Taliban communications are established
        there are bases in Afghanistan .. there are achievements in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (it is not for nothing that the presidents of these countries turned to Russia to find whole warehouses with weapons and revolutions by American citizens there already two pieces were incidentally in this part Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to internal unrest but without the Islamic factor )
        and I think they also have connections with the IMU.
        only the people can drown them.
      2. 0
        28 November 2012 00: 31
        However, the colonel of the US Armed Forces is a realist, and does not count on special assistance from Russia. He even talks about the likely "resistance."

        Doesn’t count correctly, and even speaks correctly.
        But the main mistake of the Americans is that they are generally going to play chess with a judoka.
    4. sq
      27 November 2012 09: 58
      Already planning where to grow drugs for Russia
      1. 0
        27 November 2012 10: 19
        Why are you planning?
        Everything is growing a long time ago.
        Well, no difference, everything is the same.
        The problem is not resolved in printers.
        1. +2
          27 November 2012 11: 55
          Quote: Papakiko
          The problem is not resolved in printers.

          Meanwhile, the problem is simply being solved. Only a little political will of the Russian leadership, backed up by military force.
    5. IlyaKuv
      27 November 2012 11: 12
      Yes, so that the United States choked with an ulcer, everything is numbed by him with his plan to capture the world.
    6. 0
      27 November 2012 11: 36
      In addition to drugs, it is a convenient place to place the US strategic missile defense radar: up to the starting positions of Russia's strategic nuclear forces within 1,5-2 thousand km. They want to detect missiles as early as possible in order to manage to shoot down the trajectories on the accelerating section (the first 1,5 minutes are very important): no need to suffer with false BG. Well, in the light of the program of a quick global strike, when they finalize their hypersonic missile, it will be possible to destroy our missile systems even before the launch of the missiles.
      1. Brother Sarych
        27 November 2012 12: 43
        Well, what a convenient place for the radar - in the lowland, and around the high mountains! Better hard to imagine ...
      2. Anthrax
        28 November 2012 21: 24
        Quote: Tektor
        They want to detect missiles as early as possible in order to manage to shoot down the trajectories on the accelerating section (the first 1,5 minutes are very important):

        And can you find out how a missile defense system will launch an ICBM launched somewhere from near Nizhny Tagil, Novosibirsk, Barnaul or Irkutsk 1,5 minutes after the start? Our strategic missile forces divisions are located there
        SM-3 Aegis will be deployed in Poland and southern Romania.
        This is 2,5-6 thousand kilometers to Tagil or Irkutsk.
        How do they fly this distance in 1,5 minutes? How do they fly this distance, because the range of the SM-3 is 700 kilometers, and even after modernization they’ll hardly overcome 1000 km
    7. +1
      27 November 2012 12: 28
      When these amerikosy just choke ... Well, all of them care. Here they got it.
    8. 0
      27 November 2012 12: 49
      As a legacy from the USSR, Uzbekistan was a developed region, in almost all sectors, from traditional cotton to advanced aircraft manufacturing. Karimov and the family are somewhat similar to our struggle. And what happens there is what would happen if the EBN remained in power.
    9. MilaPhone
      27 November 2012 13: 13
      The most delicious pilaf in Namangan.
    10. efefefd
      27 November 2012 13: 41
      NATO will come - restore order!
    11. djon3volta
      27 November 2012 14: 05
      and why, for example, some kind of Bangladesh or the Republic of Chad doesn’t care what will happen in the Fehran Valley, but they want to saw SUShashka. Anything worries ??? of the globe, and they’re generally climbing into their own districts to clean up their places ?! They think that ordinary people don’t understand who the Americans are and their politics?
      and let’s introduce Russian troops to Mexico, for example, under the pretext of combating the proliferation of drugs! since the Americans cannot cope with the flow of coke coming from Mexico, then the Russian peacekeepers will help, only without the Americans, and so to speak .. angry we will build a military base there, and we will spread our democracy, Russian democracy ..
    12. +5
      27 November 2012 15: 26
      .... "WHAT is their business at all, I will not understand? Live on the other side of the globe, and do not climb into their area at all to establish their own order ?!"
      Well, this is called HEGEMONY. This means the presence of global interests of Americans in the region. Of course, we are not talking about the spread of democracy or the fight against drug trafficking, and I think the fight against world terrorism is a screen. Bases, zones of influence, etc., etc. are needed. And as a result, access to resources. That's all the good American desires!
    13. +2
      28 November 2012 09: 07
      If America claims that someone needs help, it means that soon it will either open a base or deploy troops. These guys just do nothing.
    14. 0
      28 November 2012 20: 09
      The fact is that only for the current year, according to the report of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, 3.700.000 tons of opium poppy - raw materials for the manufacture of heroin - were collected on Afghan fields. Three Million Seven Hundred Thousand Tons

      Oleg Chuvakin was a bit mistaken with zeros. 3700 tons, not 3 million
    15. Anthrax
      28 November 2012 20: 28
      For the last 5-7 years, the most common drug in Russia was desomorphine or "crocodile", which was made from codeine-containing drugs, codeine, cafeine, etc. sold in every pharmacy. They even introduced prescriptions only this summer, before that there was even no recipe was not needed.
      In recent years, heroin has simply disappeared in some regions, being replaced by "crocodile" and smoking mixtures, which are freely sold throughout the country.
      But now it is not customary to see a "beam in one's own eye" in our country.
      It is necessary to bring down everything on a foreign land, evil Americans like that.
    16. 0
      28 November 2012 22: 53
      Go to Osh - every 2nd family is engaged in the processing of drugs (the KBC and the silk mill do not work, but you have to live). Kyrgyzstan was impoverished in Soviet times, and the social conflict! 1988) turned into interethnic. Practically Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are artificially created republics. in the Middle Ages, this is the territory of the Kokand Khanate (mountain beks do not count). In addition, the northern Kyrgyz look at the southern as people of the second grade. And there was essentially no Soviet power - in every district and region there were clans (hence the " the suicides of the "secretaries of regional committees, the murders of the chairmen of the Council of Ministers and the Supreme Council ...) Corruption, servitude ... And after the collapse of the Union, Islam (radical) became uncontested. But the worst thing is that the masses poured into the Russian Federation and Ukraine. And the role played by the Egyptian et al, Arab guest workers in Libya are well known ...

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