Chinese restructuring?
The completion of the XVIII Congress of the Communist Party of China marked the initial stage of the transfer of supreme state power in this country. As it is known, Xi Jinping has become the new leader of China, representing the new generation of the leaders of the Middle Kingdom. In March of next year, it is he who will replace the current Chairman of the PRC, Hu Jintao, in this post.
Much has been written about the biography of the new Chinese leader, and one of its main segments is that Xi Jinping managed to survive both great falls and stunning political successes by its 59 years. If there are people in China whose fate was so intense and at the same time contradictory, then Xi Jinping belongs to their number. It is this contradictory and gives food for thought in terms of what role the new Chinese leader can play in the fate of his country. Some who have not yet had time to taste all the fruits of Xi Jinping’s highest political power are called by some Chinese Mikhail Gorbachev, while others tend to see him as a completely different person: no more, no less, of Chinese Stalin, who will be ready to take any steps to strengthen statehood.
Such assumptions are based precisely on aspects of Xi Jinping’s biography, because diametrically opposed things often appear intertwined in it at first glance. Judge for yourself: the daughter of Xi Jinping in 2010, became a student at Harvard University, for which she even had to change her name (in China, this information is carefully ignored); Xi Jinping's close relatives (according to Bloomberg data) have an impressive overall state of nearly a billion dollars in 0,4; the sister of a new Chinese leader lives in Canada; at the same time, Xi Jinping himself is the son of one of the main Chinese revolutionaries Xi Chunxun, who was considered one of the main supporters of Mao Zedong. In his speeches, Xi Jinping repeats every time that he will never deviate from the course that when the Great Pilot determined for China. In addition, often the leader of the new Chinese higher political generation does not forget to mention in his speeches the case of Marxism-Leninism, which today must be a peculiar vector of the country's development. These words are somehow oddly aligned with the desire to give your child a Western education, and indeed they do not fit in with the fact that in the Xi Jinping family, let's say, they are very positive about excessive wealth.
Such contradictions look serious enough, given that Xi Jinping has a grudge against the state. The fact is that this very state in its time repressed his father, and he himself was very hard on him, sending a long link to the village of one of the poorest Chinese regions. One may argue that it was in the distant past, but the personality psychology suggests that such scars do not heal in the course of their lives. A person who has gone through such trials, sooner or later, will try to do everything to find an opportunity to respond to his offenders. Well, if the "offenders" of Xi Jinping have long been away in this world ... In this case, a person with big ambitions, according to the same laws of personal psychology, will try to transfer the accumulated negative emotions into a different direction. And in this case, it is hardly possible to envy those people who take in head to swim against the current determined by the new Chinese leader today.
Xi Jinping occupies the highest level of the hierarchical pedestal in China. At the same time, it receives from the previous generation of managers a grandiose economy in its scope and social problems that are no less ambitious in scope.
In recent years, everyone has become accustomed to calling China the most powerful power, but by and large the power of this power is not based on the welfare of the majority of Chinese citizens. And is it even possible in this case to talk about individual well-being, when at a nominal level of GDP in 7,5 trillion. dollars, per capita GDP in the PRC is a little over $ 4,2 thousand. This is a unique world economy. For all its external pomp and all statements about the soonest coming out of the 1-th place in the world (China plans to overtake the United States on this indicator by 2018-2020) China remains a poor country. From the 2862 units of county subordination in the PRC at the beginning of the current year, only according to official data, 592 is recognized as poor districts, that is, more than 20%. If we take into account the level of secrecy of the PRC for the world press in terms of covering such unpopular topics, then we can be very skeptical of official information. Probably, the number of poor counties in China can be increased at least 1,5-2 times.
The maximum number of poor citizens live in rural areas. The economic stratification of society in China became quite significant after China began to pursue a policy of industrialization, abandoning its agrarian priorities. As a result, it turned out that in terms of differences in the income level of the urban and rural population, China is one of the first places in the world. The maximum GRP falls on those regions in which industrial giants are located (for example, Shanghai), but the GRP in the remote provinces of China is often an order of magnitude lower. In this, China is similar to Russia ...
However, compared with Russia, China still has at least one drawback. It lies in the fact that about 9% of the illiterate population lives in China, which is about 140 million people (a figure approximately equal to the population of the Russian Federation). Such an amount of illiterate population obviously strikes not just the status of China, but also raises the question of how the new government is going to solve such a serious problem. After all, with such a level of citizens who do not possess elementary literacy, it is difficult to talk about the transition to more impressive growth rates. With the level of involvement in the world economy that China has today, the level of education of the nation plays a very significant role for the development of the country's economy.
It is worth noting that the vast majority of illiterate citizens of China live in rural areas. Summarizing the above, it turns out that the rural environment in modern China acts as a kind of ballast, which prevents the large Chinese ship from actively moving. If so, then Xi Jinping, who knows firsthand the problems of the Chinese village, will have to look for leverage to solve this complex problem.
In this regard, it can be assumed that the Chinese leader has two options for solving this problem.
The first option is that Xi Jinping will be forced, as they say in such cases, to face the peasants, taking away a significant piece of cake from the industrialists. This will allow raising the level of education in the countryside, leveling the income levels of villagers and citizens, and finally returning people to the villages. However, in this case, the new leader of the Middle Kingdom, obviously, will be forced to face new economic realities: the growth of industry, which acts as a real engine of China, will slow down, which will lead to a weakening of the economy. The figures for China's GDP growth will go down, but the income level of the average Chinese will be more substantial than today. In other words, China can be faced with a choice: to catch up and overtake the US economy, or to focus primarily on the welfare state. Taking Chinese ambitions into account, this choice can be extremely difficult. Xi Jinping can go the way: one and the second, and all at once. But in this case, the PRC will remind the famous Buridan donkey, who was able to choose one of two equally tempting delicacies. Will Xi Jinping have enough forces and means to solve both of these tasks - now it’s extremely difficult to speak, but what he can try to do this is quite possible.
The second option is that China will finally position itself as a state of technological progress, dividing priorities between the educated and poorly educated segments of the population. Technical intellectuals, skilled workers (China-1) will continue to forge the technological power of the country, and the village will remain China-2, which will continue to break away from the first. If Xi Jinping follows this path, then the title of Mikhail Gorbachev, who once went in the direction of granting broad autonomy to the regions, not particularly delving into the particularities of their development, may well be entrenched in the new Chinese leader.
In general, the task of a person who comes to the highest point of state power in China is primarily in the choice. And in the choice not from two evils, as it often happens, but from two blessings. If Xi Jinping is a rational person and not accustomed to be in a fever, then a clear choice will help him solve the most ambitious tasks. If the two opposites of his fate determine his further political character, then this may play a cruel joke with the new generation of Chinese power.
Much has been written about the biography of the new Chinese leader, and one of its main segments is that Xi Jinping managed to survive both great falls and stunning political successes by its 59 years. If there are people in China whose fate was so intense and at the same time contradictory, then Xi Jinping belongs to their number. It is this contradictory and gives food for thought in terms of what role the new Chinese leader can play in the fate of his country. Some who have not yet had time to taste all the fruits of Xi Jinping’s highest political power are called by some Chinese Mikhail Gorbachev, while others tend to see him as a completely different person: no more, no less, of Chinese Stalin, who will be ready to take any steps to strengthen statehood.
Chinese artist Luo Jianhui paints a portrait of Xi Jinping after the announcement of the new Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
Such assumptions are based precisely on aspects of Xi Jinping’s biography, because diametrically opposed things often appear intertwined in it at first glance. Judge for yourself: the daughter of Xi Jinping in 2010, became a student at Harvard University, for which she even had to change her name (in China, this information is carefully ignored); Xi Jinping's close relatives (according to Bloomberg data) have an impressive overall state of nearly a billion dollars in 0,4; the sister of a new Chinese leader lives in Canada; at the same time, Xi Jinping himself is the son of one of the main Chinese revolutionaries Xi Chunxun, who was considered one of the main supporters of Mao Zedong. In his speeches, Xi Jinping repeats every time that he will never deviate from the course that when the Great Pilot determined for China. In addition, often the leader of the new Chinese higher political generation does not forget to mention in his speeches the case of Marxism-Leninism, which today must be a peculiar vector of the country's development. These words are somehow oddly aligned with the desire to give your child a Western education, and indeed they do not fit in with the fact that in the Xi Jinping family, let's say, they are very positive about excessive wealth.
Such contradictions look serious enough, given that Xi Jinping has a grudge against the state. The fact is that this very state in its time repressed his father, and he himself was very hard on him, sending a long link to the village of one of the poorest Chinese regions. One may argue that it was in the distant past, but the personality psychology suggests that such scars do not heal in the course of their lives. A person who has gone through such trials, sooner or later, will try to do everything to find an opportunity to respond to his offenders. Well, if the "offenders" of Xi Jinping have long been away in this world ... In this case, a person with big ambitions, according to the same laws of personal psychology, will try to transfer the accumulated negative emotions into a different direction. And in this case, it is hardly possible to envy those people who take in head to swim against the current determined by the new Chinese leader today.
Xi Jinping occupies the highest level of the hierarchical pedestal in China. At the same time, it receives from the previous generation of managers a grandiose economy in its scope and social problems that are no less ambitious in scope.
In recent years, everyone has become accustomed to calling China the most powerful power, but by and large the power of this power is not based on the welfare of the majority of Chinese citizens. And is it even possible in this case to talk about individual well-being, when at a nominal level of GDP in 7,5 trillion. dollars, per capita GDP in the PRC is a little over $ 4,2 thousand. This is a unique world economy. For all its external pomp and all statements about the soonest coming out of the 1-th place in the world (China plans to overtake the United States on this indicator by 2018-2020) China remains a poor country. From the 2862 units of county subordination in the PRC at the beginning of the current year, only according to official data, 592 is recognized as poor districts, that is, more than 20%. If we take into account the level of secrecy of the PRC for the world press in terms of covering such unpopular topics, then we can be very skeptical of official information. Probably, the number of poor counties in China can be increased at least 1,5-2 times.
The maximum number of poor citizens live in rural areas. The economic stratification of society in China became quite significant after China began to pursue a policy of industrialization, abandoning its agrarian priorities. As a result, it turned out that in terms of differences in the income level of the urban and rural population, China is one of the first places in the world. The maximum GRP falls on those regions in which industrial giants are located (for example, Shanghai), but the GRP in the remote provinces of China is often an order of magnitude lower. In this, China is similar to Russia ...
However, compared with Russia, China still has at least one drawback. It lies in the fact that about 9% of the illiterate population lives in China, which is about 140 million people (a figure approximately equal to the population of the Russian Federation). Such an amount of illiterate population obviously strikes not just the status of China, but also raises the question of how the new government is going to solve such a serious problem. After all, with such a level of citizens who do not possess elementary literacy, it is difficult to talk about the transition to more impressive growth rates. With the level of involvement in the world economy that China has today, the level of education of the nation plays a very significant role for the development of the country's economy.
It is worth noting that the vast majority of illiterate citizens of China live in rural areas. Summarizing the above, it turns out that the rural environment in modern China acts as a kind of ballast, which prevents the large Chinese ship from actively moving. If so, then Xi Jinping, who knows firsthand the problems of the Chinese village, will have to look for leverage to solve this complex problem.
In this regard, it can be assumed that the Chinese leader has two options for solving this problem.
The first option is that Xi Jinping will be forced, as they say in such cases, to face the peasants, taking away a significant piece of cake from the industrialists. This will allow raising the level of education in the countryside, leveling the income levels of villagers and citizens, and finally returning people to the villages. However, in this case, the new leader of the Middle Kingdom, obviously, will be forced to face new economic realities: the growth of industry, which acts as a real engine of China, will slow down, which will lead to a weakening of the economy. The figures for China's GDP growth will go down, but the income level of the average Chinese will be more substantial than today. In other words, China can be faced with a choice: to catch up and overtake the US economy, or to focus primarily on the welfare state. Taking Chinese ambitions into account, this choice can be extremely difficult. Xi Jinping can go the way: one and the second, and all at once. But in this case, the PRC will remind the famous Buridan donkey, who was able to choose one of two equally tempting delicacies. Will Xi Jinping have enough forces and means to solve both of these tasks - now it’s extremely difficult to speak, but what he can try to do this is quite possible.
The second option is that China will finally position itself as a state of technological progress, dividing priorities between the educated and poorly educated segments of the population. Technical intellectuals, skilled workers (China-1) will continue to forge the technological power of the country, and the village will remain China-2, which will continue to break away from the first. If Xi Jinping follows this path, then the title of Mikhail Gorbachev, who once went in the direction of granting broad autonomy to the regions, not particularly delving into the particularities of their development, may well be entrenched in the new Chinese leader.
In general, the task of a person who comes to the highest point of state power in China is primarily in the choice. And in the choice not from two evils, as it often happens, but from two blessings. If Xi Jinping is a rational person and not accustomed to be in a fever, then a clear choice will help him solve the most ambitious tasks. If the two opposites of his fate determine his further political character, then this may play a cruel joke with the new generation of Chinese power.
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