“France demands from the Syrian opposition to create a transitional government, representative, which could become a legitimate representative of the new Syria. We recognize the government of new Syria as soon as it is created. ”
Hollande, this Western European political leader, thought out everything in August: according to him, the French will help those who create liberated zones in Syrian territory. Hollande also hinted that France is not alone: the Turkish initiative to create buffer zones in Syria is already being worked out.
As for the formal reason for the intervention, which the world community is waiting for, there is one: the threat of chemical weapons from Syria.
Basically, Hollande followed in the footsteps of Obama, who publicly on the night of August 21 said:
“... the issue of chemical and biological weapons is critical. It concerns not only Syria. It affects our interests. We cannot allow weapons of mass destruction to fall into the hands of villains. For us, this is a red line. As soon as we see that chemical weapons will start to be hauled around the country, we will reconsider our position. ”
Another formal reason, which will be easy to use if the international community turns off the chemical weapons tale, is the need for “humanitarian intervention”: the number of refugees is increasing inside and outside Syria. By the end of the year, notices Vladimir Khrustalev, an expert of the international organization "Lifeboat Foundation", that the number of displaced persons can reach 4, then 5 millions.
“This,” he writes, “creates a wide range of problems for the current authorities of the country. After all, the very situation of a “humanitarian catastrophe” actually arises - a rather suitable reason for intervention. And in this case we are talking about a very real humanitarian catastrophe ... "
12 November, as soon as the so-called Syrian National Coalition reported on its birth (what happened on November NNXX in Doha, Qatar) and as soon as it became clear that America supported it ideologically (because participated in the negotiations on the creation of this “authority”), Monsieur Hollande kept his word: he recognized this very coalition as the sole legal representative of the Syrian people. France was the first EU country to recognize the CPC.
Not only Monsieur Hollande сказалthat the CPC should be the future government of democratic Syria, which will make possible the end of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
So, the government is appointed, it remains to deal with Assad. And in order to deal with it, Paris plans to supply weapons to the "rebels".
The French president noted that Paris will consider the issue of arms supplies for the SNK as soon as the opposition members form a legitimate government in Syria.
“Strange enough, - notices analyst Boris Dolgov, - reckless support of the Syrian rebels by Paris also looks - if only because of the incompatibility of radical Islamic dogma and social democratic doctrine, which the French leadership, as represented by the leaders of the socialist party, profess. Probably, the perverted picture of what is happening in Syria, created by the global media, plays its role ... "
There is another "incompatibility", which Hollande, as it were, does not see.
Democratic journalists at a briefing at the French Foreign Ministry asked how there could be parallel plans for the arming of Syrian rebels and an arms embargo imposed by the EU. Spokesman for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs Philippe Lalliux confirmedthat journalists are right, not French authorities:
“With regard to the supply of weapons to the Syrian opposition, they are now affected by the European embargo.”
Monsieur Lallier tried to explain further how, in fact, the official Paris would implement the aggressive doctrine of Hollande and supply the Syrian opposition with weapons. He thought and referred to the statement of the President of France about this very supply. It’s like a joke about the head’s correctness: the first paragraph is that the boss is always right, the second paragraph is if the boss is wrong, see the first paragraph.
Analysts speculate on what strategy and tactics the SNK will adhere to - an organization that, in fact, does not exist in Syria yet, it all roams abroad: France, Turkey, Qatar ... Syria expert Sergey Filatov says:
“Now this coalition, shot down in Doha, will appear on some part of Syrian territory, declare this section a“ free Syrian republic ”or call differently, declare that a new government is sitting there, and this will be a signal for Paris to send support for this“ government "All forces".
Hence the task of Hollande is clear:
“... to find a piece of Syrian land for implanting“ the government of free Syria ”there.
The head of SNK is Islamic preacher and scholar 52-year-old Ahmed Muaz al-Khatib, and his deputies are human rights defender Suheir al-Atasi and former deputy Riyad Seif, who served out several years in prison for criticizing the government of Syria. In coalition has entered Syrian National Council, previously refused to merge with other groups.
“We submitted to the pressure put on us and agreed to be part of a new education in exchange for international promises, but without any guarantees,” said Ahmed Ramadan, a high-ranking SNC member.
12 November SNK was recognized as the legal representative of the interests of the Syrian people by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The Council of the Syrian National Coalition should include 60 people representing both political emigration and warring “rebels”. The council will then elect a transitional government as part of the 10 ministers. The goal of “coalitioners” is to get weapons and military aid in general. They do not hide it.
“We need military assistance: anti-aircraft complexes, anti-tank missiles. I hope the world will reconsider its position, ”said the newly elected head of the SNA, Georges Sabra.
On the same day, November 12, the US State Department announced support for the opposition coalition.
The United States declared the CPC "the legal representative of the Syrian people" and said that they would actively assist it. At the same time, however, America does not plan to supply weapons to the opposition. This was announced on November 13 by State Department spokesman Mark Toner.
Election of the new leadership of the Syrian opposition, he call “A positive and constructive step forward,” but warned that Washington expects concrete actions from this body. As the American diplomat said, coalitions should “complete the creation of organizational structures,” including various “technical committees,” in order to “prepare for a political transition period” in Syria.
Answering a question from journalists whether France was in a hurry, declaring SNK “the only legitimate representative of the Syrian people,” Toner said that “he is not going to evaluate the actions of the French government.” He stressed that Washington “would like to see more concrete actions” of the new leaders of the Syrian opposition before drawing conclusions.
It can be briefly summarized: the traditional friend of the “Arab Spring” is still France. Whatever president rules it.
By the way, the Syrian authorities called the “immoral” recognition of the SNK by France the only legitimate Syrian government. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad сказал:
“Let me use this word, it’s an immoral position, because it allows the killing of Syrians. The French support the killings, the terrorists and encourage the collapse of Syria. "
November 14 Syrian National Coalition recognized the legal representative of the Syrian people is Turkey. True, that SNK is the only legitimate authority in Syria, Ankara chose not to speak - and this very much surprised Qatari, Saudis and other anti-Syrian companions.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said:
“Turkey wholeheartedly welcomes this important achievement and reaffirms its recognition of the CPC as the legal representative of the Syrian people and encourages partners in the organization of the Islamic Conference to do the same.”
Explain why Turkey did not follow the example of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and France, who recognized the CPC as the sole legitimate authority in Syria, the minister did not.
At the same time, Ahmet Davutoglu assured the Syrian rebels of support:
"Syrian citizens and the revolution now need not sympathy and beautiful speeches, but effective and real assistance."
And he called on the entire world community to render this very help.
Against the background of the creation of a “transitional authority” in the media, rumors were spread about the preparation by the British of a special operation to eliminate Assad. A likely source of rumors - the TV channel "Al-Arabia". It can be assumed that these rumors are intended both to frighten Asad (this is unlikely) and to make it clear to SNK that there is some active force behind them, but they need to hope in God, but not themselves.
According to rumors, British special forces at this very time deal training fighters of the Syrian opposition, who will have to eliminate the president of Syria, and at the same time, representatives of his entourage. The instructor group supposedly includes representatives of the Air Force Special Forces (SAS), Marine Special Forces (SBS) and Paratroopers. And as if a British government statement had already been made that after the re-election of President Obama to the United States, the governments of Britain and America decided to put an end to the Syrian “bloody bacchanalia”.
November 17 on readiness to work closely with the Syrian National Coalition said British Foreign Secretary William Hague. This is an opposition alliance, according to Mr. Haig,
"Is a representative of Syria, to which Britain has confidence."
He did not forget about Western democratic values:
"But before starting cooperation, we must make sure that the people of Syria accept the coalition as their legal representative and that it stands for a democratic future for Syria."
In general, everything looks very noble.
This nobility fits in with the campaign to eliminate Bashar al-Assad from power, which is also planned in Britain. No, we are not talking about a detachment of liquidators, to whom the material of the Al-Arabiya channel is dedicated, but about an international conference that took place on November 16 in London.
The event brought together representatives of Arab and Western countries (EU + US). Their goal was to discuss how it is better and more convenient from the point of view of democracy and the interests of the people of Syria to overthrow the bloodthirsty Assad. British correspondent ITAR-TASS tried to find out in the Foreign Office the personal composition of the meeting participants, but no one was named to him. The correspondent had to buy newspapers. According to media reports, the head of SNK Muaz al-Khatib, his deputies Riad Seif and Suheir al-Attasi participated in the event. The conference was opened by the head of the British Foreign Ministry, William Hague, and it was chaired by John Wilkes, the British envoy for relations with the Syrian opposition.
Abdel Seyda, one of the newly-minted leaders of the Council of People's Commissars, specifically formulated three main requirements that the coalition poses to foreign powers: diplomatic recognition, financial assistance, and the supply of portable anti-aircraft systems to combat aviation Syrian government forces.
If all Western countries, add on our own, behaved like “gallant” France, the Syrian opposition would have been armed and replenished at the same time by recruits eager to make money and shed Alawite blood - and, quite likely, in the Middle East, in the place Syria, the semi-state enclaves of Druze, Sunni, Shiite, Christian, Kurd, and Wahhabi would appear. All this would be more like Yugoslavia than Libya.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, following his president, said that Paris is going to appeal to the European Union with a request to lift the ban on the supply of “defensive weapons” to Syria. France recognized the CPC, and is already ready to provide direct military assistance to opposition groups.
Thus, France would have created another hotbed of Islamism in the Middle East, that is, it would have achieved what the United States recently achieved - with the “Arab spring” and then the “elections” in Egypt. Obama even got the title “naive” from the media.
London is not as hot as Paris. And not so dumb.
Last Thursday, a meeting of the National Security Council was held in London, at which Prime Minister David Cameron chaired. They discussed possible measures to promote the Syrian opposition with ships, airplanes and the supply of anti-aircraft systems, but no decisions were made. London will wait for the signal of Washington - this is definitely.
And Washington is also slow. Barack Obama, who before the elections showed some peacefulness, cannot stun his own people with a sudden war in the Middle East. In addition, the White House is busy with a host of internal problems: first, the e-government website collects signatures for the separation of states (primarily southern ones), and the government will have to give people some answers; secondly, there is a campaign in the United States to legalize marijuana and "blue" marriages, which is a big step for the country's citizens to democratize their homeland, and this is more important than Syria, about which they know little; thirdly, there is already a fight in the Middle East - between Israel and Hamas, entrenched in the Gaza Strip. “Set on fire” in such a situation even Syria is tantamount to an explosion of the entire region. The White House won't go for it right now.
In this connection there is an interesting opinion. Vyacheslav Nikolaev считаетthat the Israeli-Hamas crisis, which arose in November, is not accidental. The author refers to an article in Time magazine where journalists asked themselves the question: “Why did Netanyahu decide to attack Hamas right now?”
If we reject the fact that it is Israel (elections in January, the necessary fight against terrorism), Hamas (election of a new leader and political bureau), Palestinian autonomy (actions of Mahmoud Abbas in the UN recognizing a Palestinian state) and Egypt, with its radical Salafi groups, operating on the territory of the Palestinian Authority, then we get what Netanyahu had said earlier. And he declared that in Syria there are “jihad groups dangerous for Israel” and that “the government of Israel will give a decisive response to aggression from their side.”
V. Nikolaev comes to the conclusion that the essence of the emerging intrigue will be revealed in how events will develop further. If the current conflict between Israel and Hamas does not end in a few days, then it may well be the beginning of a wider armed escalation that can cover the entire Middle East.
And Israel, willy-nilly, will be opposed to the West and the Arab world in their confrontation with Syria.
Once the operation "Cast Lead" was the beginning of a break in relations between Israel and Turkey. What will the operation "Cloud Pillar" result in if Turkey not only recognized the CPC, but also pursues a neo-Ottoman policy? And Qatar and Saudi Arabia, supporting the Syrian "opposition"? And Egypt? After all, the open support of the Palestinians and Hamas by this country was quite predictable. Last month, the Israel Project interviewed public opinion in Egypt. 74% of respondents were in favor of breaking the Camp David agreement with Israel - three times more than during the 2009 survey of the year. And 87% of Egyptians would be “happy” if their state got an atomic bomb (three years ago only 41% of respondents supported their own nuclear project). Cairo recalled the ambassador from Tel Aviv.
17 November in Cairo, in the mosque of Al-Azhar, a prominent cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has not been in Egypt for a long time, read a sermon in which he compared the attack of Israel with the violence that. according to him, creates Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
“We tell the tyrant to Israel: the day of your end is approaching,” he told the crowd.
Israel has enemies on all sides, and it is advantageous to ensure that Islamist radicals do not come to power in Syria. With this behavior, Tel Aviv will probably soften even one of its regular critics - comrade Ahmadinejad from Tehran, who is sleeping and sees how to erase the "Zionist state" from the map of the planet.
It turns out that Israel had to start the operation before the West, the Arabs and the Turks did away with Syria. To say only that Netanyahu needs a small, victorious war before the elections means to underestimate the Israeli prime minister. Many people don’t like his rhetoric, his Iranian “red lines”, even Washington, but he is quite an experienced politician. He is well aware that Assad, in which the Golan Heights was calm for many years, is much more preferable than the gang of Islamists inveterate.
In the meantime, Israel’s operation has only increased instability in the region. 16 November Syria strongly condemned the hostilities that Tel Aviv took in the Gaza Strip.
Syrian government urged the world community "put pressure on Israel to force it to stop its aggression" and appealed "to all honest people in the world" with a call to "speak out against the arbitrariness perpetrated by the Israeli authorities." In a government statement, the Israeli army commits "atrocious crimes" in Gaza. Expressing solidarity with the "just struggle of the Palestinians", official Damascus confirmed that it "remains true to its obligations in defending the right of the Palestinian people to return the lands occupied by Israel and create an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital."
What, in fact, will be the end of November, Comrade Abbas will seek at the UN General Assembly.
And what is interesting here is this: relations between Syria and the Hamas in power in Gaza became complicated when the Arab Spring began in Syria (March 2011 of the year). Hamas supported the "rebels", most of whom are Sunnis, that is, the co-religionists of Palestinians from Gaza. Hamas leaders who had previously settled in Damascus, left the city.
As for the Syrian President, Bashar Assad считаетthat the West will not decide on military intervention in Syria, since "the price of such an action will be very heavy." He states:
“I think the price of a foreign invasion of Syria - if it happens - will be more than the whole world can afford. This will entail a domino effect that will affect the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific. I don’t think that the West will take such a step, but if it does, no one knows how this will end. ”
However, it is possible that the West will fight with the hands of others. On Monday, November 19, a meeting of European foreign ministers is scheduled. She will be is devoted including the issue of lifting the arms embargo to the Syrian opposition.
As is known, the EU imposed a ban on the export of weapons and military equipment to Syria in May 2011. The reason for the embargo: "Weapons can be used for internal repression." But, although France raised the issue of supplying “defensive weapons”, and not the “bloody Assad regime,” but democratic oppositionists, one high-ranking EU official who wished to remain anonymous, said to the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star, that the arms embargo on Syria can hardly be changed so that the weapon goes to the rebels, and not to the "regime": it is almost impossible to track. Therefore, the EU is unlikely to change the embargo.
As for Washington, its specific plans for Syria are difficult to determine. One thing is clear: the White House will not back down from Syria. Renowned Analyst Eric Dreitzer says:
“... It must be remembered that the completion of the American adventure in Syria defeat would be the end of US hegemony in the Middle East. If the States are not able to continue their campaign from Syria, then this means that their attempt to destroy Iran is unlikely to be developed. This means that their deadly grip on the Persian Gulf and oil reserves weakens, so when it comes to Syria, they spread all their cards on the table, and all their stakes are at stake. ”
On According to The media in the Syrian conflict have already killed more than 39 thousands of people.
Russia adheres to the same position on Syria. Hearing about Western conversations about the recognition of the SNK and supply, Russia warnedthat the supply of weapons to the rebels will violate international law. Vladimir Putin said that the overthrow of Assad would plunge the country into chaos.
Returning “on the ring” to the theme of the boiling Middle East, it should be added that the wise President of Israel believes that it is Russia that can stop the bloodshed in Syria and bring peace to the Middle East. About this Shimon Peres сказал 8 November, after negotiations with Vladimir Putin:
“For many years, there was silence on the border with Syria, and we would like this to continue. I believe that Russia and you have an important role - you can stop the bloodshed in Syria and bring peace and security not only to Syria, but also to the Middle East. ”
But as long as the “world hegemon”, he is Israel’s first ally, does not stop putting pressure on Syria, and with it the EU states, the Saudi-Qatari oilmen and neo-Ottomanists Erdogan and Davutoglu, who are now forced to feed 120 thousands, will stop yapping at her Syrian refugees, Tel Aviv will not be able to live in peace. This may be a paradox or someone's “naive” plan, but Europe and the United States are doing everything so that Israel in the Middle East is surrounded by Islamist enemies. If Syria, according to the plan of Western and Turkish strategists, is divided into “buffer zones”, then Muslim radicals will come to power. And Shimon Peres is well aware that Russia in the Middle East plays the role of a geopolitical deterrent. A crucial factor for the security of Israel.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru