ISW: The Russian army is preparing an offensive in the Luhansk direction, a strike towards Zaporozhye is unlikely

The Russian army is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive in the Zaporozhye direction, it will develop in other sectors of the front. This conclusion was made by the American think tank, better known as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts from the United States believe that the Zaporozhye direction is unlikely to be the main one for the Russian army to advance, even taking into account the transfer of reserves and new armored vehicles to the line of contact. The blow will be struck in one of the sectors, Moscow will not have enough forces for the entire front, even despite the mobilization carried out. The alleged direction of the strike is the Luhansk region, as well as the area of ​​​​Bakhmut (Artemovsk).

Decisive Russian offensive operations are unlikely to target the city of Zaporozhye from the western Donetsk-Zaporozhye front line as the Russian military continues to prepare for an offensive in the western part of the Luhansk region. Russia is concentrating troops and military equipment for a decisive offensive in the west of the Lugansk region and the Bakhmut districts

- it is said in the next summary of the Institute.

Meanwhile, Kyiv continues to claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly ordered the liberation of the entire Donbass by March 1. A fake about this was launched by Ukrainian TsIPSO, and now the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is declaring the impossibility of the Russian army to "capture" the remaining territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, presenting it as another victory for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In turn, British intelligence acknowledged that Russia had made "little success" in its attempts to encircle Bakhmut (Artemovsk), taking under fire control the two main routes through which resources and reserves were transferred to the city.

Comments

[expert]

"In turn, British intelligence acknowledged that Russia had made 'little success' in its attempts to encircle Bakhmut (Artemovsk), taking under fire control the two main routes along which resources and reserves were transferred to the city."
I hope and I am sure that "small successes" will turn into those very pebbles, which at first gradually, and then rapidly turn into a rockfall.
There are no alternatives. Only a victory!

[Anachoret]

All these overseas "analysts" seem to be born in the same hydrometeorological center) write all sorts of random heresy in the expectation that later when their "forecasts" do not come true) no one will remember them, but here and now they will receive their hype)

[Shurik70]

American think tank, Ukrainian CIPSO and British intelligence ...

Abbreviated: AATSUCI Bro ...

[Vyacheslav57]

The blow will be delivered in one of the sectors, Moscow will not have enough forces for the entire front,

Fucking analysts this American center. The troops of the Russian Federation have already understood that nothing can be achieved with one blow, the enemy must be pulled apart along the entire front. So that it was not possible to pull up reserves. This is what is being done now, from where only a part of the military is removed, a blow is immediately struck there, followed by moving forward. Yes, while the advance in depth is not significant, but the manpower of the enemy is being destroyed.

[Shurik70]

Exhaustion - it works both ways.
Russia is psychologically better prepared for a long confrontation, but the West has more industrial reserves.
They will hire more mercenaries, make "duty" at the front in shifts, send more equipment and weapons.
It is not known who will get tired faster.
Here, the sanctions will work rather - it is necessary to stop supplying Europe with oil, gas, fertilizers, and generally stop trading with those who supply the Nazis.
And this should be done now, and not later, when they find other suppliers.

[DenD]

I'll probably be stupid. But look at us, at Russia. Parallel import, we easily mastered. There will always be someone who will buy from us and resell to others. So depriving resources directly will not work. Turkey, buying gas from us, scatters it to Europe, India, buying oil from us, refines it and sends diesel fuel to the United States. And these are just two examples that lie on the surface.

[hrych]

Quote: Vyacheslav57

the enemy must be pulled apart along the entire front

Just, it is necessary that he concentrate, as in Soledar-Bakhmut. You stretch the enemy and you stretch yourself, and when the enemy concentrates, then we also concentrate the fire with a sad result for him.

Quote: Vyacheslav57

advances in depth are not significant, but the manpower of the enemy is destroyed

This is the tactic when the enemy does not run to the next line of defense, but rather throws reinforcements into the vent again and again.

[Cympak]

Quote: hrych

Just, it is necessary that he concentrate, as in Soledar-Bakhmut. You stretch the enemy and you stretch yourself, and when the enemy concentrates, then we also concentrate the fire with a sad result for him.

Don't talk about things you have no idea about. You'll pass for a smart one Although, the latter is unlikely.

[hrych]

Quote: Cympak

Don't talk about things you have no idea about. You'll pass for a smart one Although, the latter is unlikely.

Whose will you be?

[Argon]

All these analytical centers are closely connected with intelligence, and they, in turn, draw information from "moles"

[Luka Nord]

Russia waits and wets .. We need operational space And go to the border with Poland
There the sulaks concentrated .. Well, cut off NATO supplies
And we will soak ukrov anyway
usraina That's right .. Russia dug more deeply the essence of the Angla-Saxons
Here they are "hornet's nest" Figured out!

[EMMM]

How is it possible! Ukrainians dug up the Black Sea. They had excavators, with a bucket immersion depth of 450 meters. Great creators!

[dmi.pris1]

Well, the Amerza vagners announced themselves on the coffee grounds .. And as for the "entire front", even in 1944 the Red Army, which had huge potential, did not deliver "ten Stalinist blows" at the same time

[Mother Theresa]

We need to impose a moratorium on such publications. There is no sense from them.

[Leonidych]

Let them grind. "The dog barks, the caravan moves on." The most important thing is that we do not have a leak, where, when and with what forces we will strike.

[rocket757]

ISW: The Russian army is preparing an offensive in the Luhansk direction, a strike towards Zaporozhye is unlikely

. The same conversations, fortune-telling ...
So, can the data give direction to the correct conclusions ... counterintelligence, go ahead, catch all the spies, whatever they are!

[Leonidych]

I also want to tell fortunes, but suddenly I guess. We will strike north of Kharkov at Dnepropetrovsk, at the same time in the Luhansk direction. And of course, a counter strike from Zaporizhzhya at Dnepropetrovsk in order to encircle the entire Donbass grouping. How confused I am. Already liked it.

[MstislavHrabr]

You are an optimist, my friend ... For such an operation, at least a millionth army is needed ... And even if we defeat the enemy, we will not be able to hold this territory ... It would be great to start with an attack from Belarus and Russia on Chernigov, along the Dnieper and Desna, perhaps and the Seimas (in the Sumy region) ... And only then ...

[Leonidych]

Yes, I only two hands FOR!!! Well, our army seems to be more lyama. And also the landing in Izmail and the coverage of Odessa with access to Transnistria IN BEAUTY. As they say, "getting richer with a thought," so I dreamed.

[antiquity]

North of Kharkov Belgorod. And he's almost at war. More northwest. But in this case, when moving to the south-west, the Sumy region will be behind and it will not just look like that. Those. you need to make a restraining / covering rear strike on Sumy / Okhtyrka. This is unlikely.
The most logical thing seems to be a strike along the Dnieper to cut off everyone and everything and create a watershed for the future. Same for everything. At least in a military sense, at least in a territorial one.
But it is hard to believe in it. Judging by the battles for the second week for a holiday village across the road opposite Ugledar (20 private houses), this was not an offensive, but a distraction of attention and forces. The main goal is to clean up the Donbass and freeze the conflict for a break / mobilization / foreign policy

[couch]

Excuse me, but what do they care where we attack? There is our territory everywhere and we need to liberate it, we will do it without the promptings of mossy "yuksperts"!

[Aaron Zawi]

Quote from sofa

Excuse me, but what do they care where we attack? There is our territory everywhere and we need to liberate it, we will do it without the promptings of mossy "yuksperts"!

Well, first of all, people are just curious. After all, it's great to feel smart, able to predict the event. Secondly, these publications are paid in various publications, i.e. people earn their living by their passion.

[igorbrsv]

To be honest, I feel like that too. I just don't make any money. And so, you wrote directly from me. And I can't help myself

[Cympak]

Analysts from the United States believe that the Zaporozhye direction is unlikely to be the main one for the Russian army to advance, even taking into account the transfer of reserves and new armored vehicles to the line of contact. The blow will be struck in one of the sectors, Moscow will not have enough forces for the entire front, even despite the mobilization carried out. The alleged direction of the strike is the Luhansk region, as well as the area of ​​​​Bakhmut (Artemovsk).

Now there is success in the Artemovsky Seversky direction. It needs to be developed. Wait for the enemy to pull up reserves there. Then deliver a massive blow in the direction of Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk along the Dnieper. This will cut off the enemy's supply through the Dnieper. The nearest bridges will be built in Kyiv, Kanev, Cherkassy, ​​Kremenchug

[Adrey]

Quote: Cympak

Now there is success in the Artemovsky Seversky direction. It needs to be developed. Wait for the enemy to pull up reserves there.

When the enemy pulls up reserves, it will be an order of magnitude more difficult to attack, with corresponding losses.

Quote: Cympak

Then deliver a massive blow in the direction of Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk along the Dnieper.

Without isolation and subsequent capture of Zaporozhye, an offensive along the Dnieper is impossible. Having such a fortified point on the flank and in the rear to go forward, this dooms oneself to the risk of a counterattack and subsequent encirclement.

[Cympak]

Break the bridges across the Dnieper in Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk and there will be no counterattacks. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the means to cross the Dnieper. They raked at the beginning of the NWO because of the stupidity of stick breeding, now "they blow on the water." Only degenerates fight with blows to the forehead. To win, you need strikes to the flank and encirclement. Settlements need to be blocked. Then provide humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave for several days. After that, it is announced that the enemy is hiding behind civilians and the city is being destroyed by bombardment by artillery and aircraft. This is how Americans fight.

[hrych]

Quote: Cympak

They raked at the beginning of the SVO because of the stupidity of stick breeding

Why do you all think our strategists are narrow-minded? Let's figure it out. The first stage of the operation is like disrupting the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but most importantly, stopping the nuclear threat, which Zelensky proclaimed, which determined the direction of the strikes. Those. through Chernobyl to Gostomel, where they were looking for a cargo of Mriya, such as the Kiev direction. Zaporozhye direction to capture the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Kherson direction to the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant near Nikolaev and a call to Kharkov to eliminate the American reactor at the research institute. Everything was done by special forces groups and the stage of the operation was carried out brilliantly. The reactor in Kharkov was blown up (it is minuscule for irradiation with neutrons and radioactive materials), Mriya and the airfield were checked, as was the Chernobyl nuclear power plant along the way. As they say, they found everything at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, i.e. enriched materials, so they did not go to Nikolaev. Further, the special forces had to be withdrawn by combined arms forces, and the Kremlin immediately began peace negotiations and all the vast lands seized during this operation were ready to return in exchange for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the LDNR. Even Ukrainian flags were filmed in Kherson and Melitopol and given to the residents. Zelya was in agreement with everything, but the West turned on and the negotiations broke down. As a result, our troops ended up in a difficult situation near Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkov. One way or another, these lands were abandoned later and losses were incurred, although they would have been abandoned anyway during the truce. The second stage is the cutting of a land corridor to the Crimea and the privatization of the Sea of ​​Azov, where the battle for Mariupol became the key one. The milestone has reached its goals. Negotiations continued and Macron conducted them by phone, therefore Azovstal surrendered, but a treacherous blow was dealt to the troops preparing to withdraw in Kherson and the goal was to break into Luhansk with several boilers along the way. The plan is thwarted, even though they suffered losses. Putin stopped negotiations and annexed the LDNR, Kherson region and Zaporozhye to Russia. Defining new conditions. And the third stage began - the grinding-destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Which is successful. All this was voiced by our Ministry of Defense, I just repeated it, but for some reason everyone passes it on deaf ears, and the military correspondents simply crap, not seeing beyond their noses. And to complete stage 3, the bridges across the Dnieper CANNOT be touched.

[Cympak]

. The first stage of the operation is like disrupting the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but most importantly, stopping the nuclear threat, which Zelensky proclaimed, which determined the direction of the strikes. Those. through Chernobyl to Gostomel, where they were looking for a cargo of Mriya, such as the Kiev direction. Zaporozhye direction to capture the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Kherson direction to the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant near Nikolaev and a call to Kharkov to eliminate the American reactor at the research institute. Everything was done by special forces groups and the stage of the operation was carried out brilliantly.

Victim of RenTV.

The purpose of the landing on Gostomel is to capture the GDP for the further landing of airborne units by landing. Il-76s were already standing loaded with troops and equipment. At the last moment, they canceled when they realized that the air defense was coming out could not be suppressed
The entry of 2 groups of special forces into Kharkov: this is the heroism of the special forces who went forward and the shame of the army who remained in place.
"Mriya" stood at the airfield of deployment and was destroyed by artillery strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You don't need a Mriya to drop a dirty bomb. Enough of the Su-24, although the Ukrainians have both Il-76 and An-124.
Our troops found themselves in a difficult situation near Kyiv, Nikolaev and Kharkov due to the fact that no one took care of protecting the communications routes, cleaning the adjacent villages as they moved, and covering the columns with helicopters from the air. On the other hand, the army men were ordered to take their uniforms, and the National Guardsmen marched with rubber sticks and plastic shields.
Smartphones were taken away (it was enough just to get SIM cards), cards were issued paper and outdated. As a result, the troops strayed. No one cared about the means of disguise.

And now, after the prospect of the "Raat road" became clear for our troops near Kyiv, we had to make a "goodwill gesture."
And what kind of fool placed equipment and combat helicopters on the airfield of the Chernobaevka airfield near Kherson in the zone of destruction by artillery and MLRS of the enemy (40 km to the outskirts of Nikolaev)
And how did it happen that they had to leave half of the Kherson region and the Kharkov region (retreat from Izyum) after the inhabitants voted for joining Russia?

The militants at Azovstal surrendered, because they were promised "extraction". Strange as it may seem, the "extraction" has passed: the leaders are resting at a resort in Turkey and "marveling" at the iPhone from Abramovich, the rest have been exchanged in several stages and are preparing for new war crimes.
"Grinding-destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" sounds cool from the propagandists' TV, until you find out how many lives of our fighters this ingenious operation claimed (remember Verdun and the positional stalemate of the First World War or the Rzhev-Sychev operation "Mars").

[hrych]

Quote: Cympak

The purpose of the landing on Gostomel is to capture the GDP for the further landing of airborne units by landing. Il-76s were already standing loaded with troops and equipment.

You are the victim of Ren TV. You see what kind of "strategist" you are, there you criticize the graduates of the General Staff Academy What landing IL-76? There is no need for unfinished air defense either, it is enough to cover the runway with hail and artillery. You yourself write about covering Mriya with artillery. On February 5, Mriya took off from Billund Airport in Denmark. A military cargo was declared, then it was corrected to empty. They brought some containers. No dirty bomb (adherents of dirty bombs are the victims of RenTV) and what is the heresy with her dumping this cow? She passed away on February 27th.

Quote: Cympak

And how did it happen that you had to leave half of the Kherson region and the Kharkov region (Izyum) after the residents voted for joining Russia?

Firstly, not half of the Kherson region, but somewhere in the fifth. They voted to accept them as part of Russia, and Russia and the Garant undertake to release and integrate them. Is the story over? Fukuyama ghost? Everything has its time. Raisins are included in the Kharkiv region, the referendum was held in the LDNR, in the Kherson region and in Zaporozhye. Referendums were held on September 23-27, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Izyum on September 11. Azovstal was surrendered and Mariupol was liberated, just as Azov became an inland sea - this is a great achievement, and what happened to the Azov people only excites hysterics. You do not see an elephant, but you are looking at bedbugs. This was certainly a condition of the agreements, but our people were exchanged for the Azov people, they are more important. The negotiations were conducted by the secret services and you do not have enough data to judge the deal. The leaders of Azov certainly agreed to cooperate with Russia. It's obvious why they weren't returned to Ukraine, but they were released by the media. Snot should not interfere with intelligence, they will figure it out.

Quote: Cympak

"Grinding-destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" sounds cool from the propagandists' TV

It just doesn’t sound like ours are being modest. Der Lein hinted at 200 thousand corpses, Chinese intelligence reported about 250 thousand. But the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers lost 320 Vushniks. The former deputy head of the European Command of the United States, Stephen Twitty, in an interview with the Linke Zeitung newspaper noted that about 200 thousand military personnel were missing in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is a plus for losses. And OSINT (Open Source Intelligence - open source investigations), according to mortuaries, funeral homes and lost women, voiced 400 thousand. Our losses are there, but they are not commensurate. According to Rzhev, now only brewers are talking and comparing with Verdun, normal historians and analysts know that the Rzhev operation - thirdly pushed the front line away from Moscow, secondly stopped the prospect of an attack on Moscow, and firstly fettered parts of the army "Center", which the Wehrmacht could not transfer to Stalingrad. In fact, this is one big operation, including Mars, Saturn and Uranus. In all three sub-operations, the victory of the Red Army, whoever mumbled something, and the result of a large operation is unconditional.

[igorbrsv]

I think they will take Zaporozhye. What Western experts mean by the word they are not going to take is unknown. Not going when? Now? Next week?

[Luka Nord]

The main thing here is not fighting, etc. And politics and economics!
Ukraine, this is all just pressure on Russia, but bloody and ugly.
And attempts to bring us to our knees for our resources ..
And the Russians don't want to! And we begin to remind the peoples of the American continent how much the Anglo-Saxons owe them, and so on.

We are silent about ourselves .. Louder than the Jews, we will not be able to shout, but hint if only

[Kerensky]

The American analytical center, better known as Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Yes, stop it already!
Interest group of 10 people. Materials are supplied by OBS.

[voyaka uh]

View their materials half a year ago. Where did they go wrong?
They accurately noted the accumulation of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov and Izyum at the time.
And the departure of the Russian army from the right bank was also predicted two months before it happened.

[Sebostyuan]

"Look at their material half a year ago. Where did they go wrong?"

So on the go and do not remember. Even before the start of the NWO, they drew arrows - strikes in all directions. Many laughed at them (the blow should be one maximum two), but no, our troops went exactly in those directions. In addition to the landing in Odessa.
They talked about the energy facilities planned for the strike. The concentration of the main efforts in the Artemovsk region, etc.

Who cares about the bridges across the Dnieper. Wrote that go - discussion. Decisions have not yet been made.

[1erWahrheitsMinister_1984]

Nach dieser "Analyse", sollte man Saporoschje mit als Erstes
massiv angreifen und die dortigen Ukra-Truppen allesamt zu
Kleinholz verarbeiten...!!!

[expert]

Ein echter Erfolg kann nur dann erreicht werden, wenn diesen keine "Analytiker" erwarten und prognostizieren.

[Fizik13]

ISW: The Russian army is preparing an offensive in the Luhansk direction, a strike towards Zaporozhye is unlikely

According to the Sovinformburo.....
Another fortune-teller roofing felts, agents divulging our secret plans, roofing felts experts .....

[Ghost1]

The Ukrainian media quote this isw all the time, they carry such nonsense there. I thought it was an abbreviation of some "yellow" newspaper.

[alexey_444]

If the ratio of losses is what we are told, then our actions are correct, why rush to lose people. They hurried with Kherson, they were exhausted to catch Zhdunov. All evil spirits will fall down and those who cooperate with the orcs will be calculated on the front line. Yes, unfortunately ordinary people suffer, but there is no other choice.

[Ulan.1812]

Here are fortune-tellers ... continuous Nostradamus.
They'll hit here, they won't hit here...
Let them calm down where necessary, and we will strike there.

[Boris Sergeev]

Wherever you look, only American or British "analysts" are quoted. Are there no Russians anymore?

[Alex Nevs]

Yeah. You read here couch analysts "smart as much scary" from the movie "Chasing Two Hares"

[val_67]

"British scientists" drafted into the army? Then it deserves attention ... the attention of the orderlies, who until that moment had protected their fragile psyche from the rough outside world.
Russia will advance. Where, when and how - ask the General Staff. No one will give more accurate information. Although, all those who ask ahead of time will be sent along a route that vaguely resembles the direction of the main strike

[single-n]

The agency is all about everything. Forecast. The Russian army plans to strike at the territory of Ukraine. Attacks on the territories of other countries are unlikely.
I am waiting for proposals for cooperation with the editors on a commercial basis.
Tariffs
One guess
a) probable -1000r
b) limitedly probable 800 rub
c) the probability is assessed as unlikely -600
d) unlikely 400r

I believe that I can generate such newsbreaks for articles in VO quite often and much cheaper than you will spend the time of your employees searching for such assumptions