The US administration denied information about the trip to Moscow of the head of the CIA to discuss peace in Ukraine

The US authorities said that the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, did not visit Russia to offer the head of the Russian state Vladimir Putin the Crimea and Donbass in exchange for establishing peace. Previously, the newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung wrote about this.

The publication of the newspaper said that the chief of American intelligence offered the Russian leadership to give the Russian Federation about 20% of the territory of Ukraine and end the hostilities on this. Apparently, we are talking about the recognition of Crimea, Donbass, the liberated regions of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as Russian, which are already legally part of the Russian Federation.

However, this idea was not accepted by either Moscow or Kyiv. Moscow believes that Russia will be able to win the hostilities and occupy even larger territories. The Kyiv regime, in turn, does not want to lose important territories and hopes that it can regain control over the lost regions.

However, the very fact of such publications in the Western media, even if Burns did not really visit Moscow, indicates that in the West such an outcome of the Ukrainian conflict is increasingly being accepted.

After all, Western analysts understand that Ukraine is unable to win the conflict, and the risk that it will lose even more territories or the regime of Vladimir Zelensky will collapse is very high. Perhaps such stuffing in the media is a test of public opinion both in the West and in Ukraine.

Comments

[APASUS]

Probing the situation through the media. They are waiting for a reaction to the proposal. And the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, could visit Moscow on a secret mission, that’s why it’s secret

[Greg Miller]

All those few victories that Russia won in this century were won exclusively on the battlefield and there was not a single diplomatic one among them. Any negotiations, deals, etc. always ended in the same thing - the defeat of Russia. If the leadership of Russia now starts negotiations with the enemy, then there is only one conclusion - another defeat awaits us.

[Sarmat Sanych]

Military action is a process for which numerical indicators are also used. And if so, then statistical analysis and numerical methods can also be used to understand what is happening and who wins.
I don't understand why no one has done this yet. For Comrade Konashenkov regularly issues all the figures necessary for this. Apparently, it's boring and you can't sell LGBT Finns like that.
But we don’t need it, so I’ll try to describe a certain simplified mathematical model of military operations. I take losses of the anti-tank at the MINIMUM (in fact, they are 3-4 times higher).
Remark: Military historians say that the Third Reich essentially lost the war by the winter of 41, when the "blitzkrieg" did not achieve its goals. For Germany no longer had the resources for a long war ... then there was only a postponement of the inevitable
So, for any parameter, the basic equation has the form:
f(t)=X+(ab)t
where X is the value of the parameter at the beginning of the conflict
a – average rate of replenishment/restoration of the parameter
b is the average parameter destruction rate
Since all the data are statistical, averaged, fluctuations of numbers in one direction or another are possible.
When planning, the military uses more complex formulas, with correction factors, but we do not need planning, but a statement after the fact (with extrapolation for subsequent periods), so the simplified version will do.
For example, let's take the statistical parameter "tanks and other armored vehicles".
Let's calculate X for it.
According to the reference book "The Military Balance", the ground forces of Ukraine were in service at the beginning of 2022:
- 858 tanks of various types and 1132 more in storage
- 1212 infantry fighting vehicles
- 547 combat reconnaissance vehicles (BRDM-2, BRM-1K)
- 622 armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles
Total X = 858+1132+1212+547+622 = 4371
Now let's calculate the average destruction rate.
b = 7679 (figure from yesterday's report) / 340 (days of SVR) = 22,58 units per day
It is more difficult to calculate the average replenishment rate, because there you need to add up foreign supplies, Ukraine's own production (everything is simple here, this is a near-zero parameter) and repaired equipment (for this parameter, I have no data for obvious reasons). Therefore, accuracy is relative.
Again, I can only take data on deliveries from open sources.
As of June 7 last year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received from other countries 252 Soviet-type tanks, 40 tanks manufactured by NATO countries (promised for delivery), up to 395 armored vehicles, 147 units of other armored vehicles. The total number of 834 units in 104 days.
And, let's say that an average of 3 units of armored vehicles are being restored per day (here I shamelessly flattered them, but let it be). Again, there is also equipment that breaks down on its own, without the participation of the RF Armed Forces, but I don’t have such statistics, so let’s forget it.
We get (optimistic for the Armed Forces) figure
a = 834/104 + 3 = 11,02
Again, there is an obvious downward trend in the supply of Western equipment to Ukraine. If in the first months an average of 8 units of equipment were delivered per day, then if we take the current data on what the West promises this year, then this figure is already striving for 1-2.
Final formula f(t)= 4371 + (11,02-22,58)t
If we substitute the value 340 instead of t (today is counted from the beginning of the NMD), then we get the number of tanks and other armored vehicles remaining in the Armed Forces of Ukraine about 440 units. With an average contraction rate of 11 units per day ...
I emphasize that this is a very, very approximate model. For, including the intensity of hostilities, the value is variable (and the less armored vehicles the Armed Forces of Ukraine have, the less they throw it into battle, so correction factors are also needed here).
But now it is clear why there is such panic and convulsive fuss in the West on the topic “it is urgent to issue tanks to Ukraine”?
Moreover, even if they give everything that is in question, then at the current rate of destruction, this will prolong the conflict for about a month. The result will not change, it will just shift in time.
Further, we can make similar equations for other parameters - the number of aircraft, air defense, artillery and MLRS, infantry.
And at the output we get a system of linear equations. What to do next with her? Haven't everyone forgotten the school course of mathematics yet?

[credo]

The West of Ukraine, most likely starting from the Zhytomyr and ending with the Lvov regions, has long decided where and to whom they want to "catch". True, there are enclaves there, which are not on the way with this "western Ukraine".

The East and coastal regions of Ukraine seem to have also more or less decided on their goal setting.

What remains is Central Ukraine, which wants to keep everything for itself and not give anything to anyone. It is on this task that we need to work more quickly and not give the Anglo-Saxons time to build up. It seems that now the solution of the issue regarding the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR belongs to Russia and we need to resolve this issue on our own.

[Egoza]

Quote: credo

The West of Ukraine, most likely starting from the Zhytomyr and ending with the Lvov regions, has long decided where and to whom they want to "catch". True, there are enclaves there, which are not on the way with this "western Ukraine".

The East and coastal regions of Ukraine seem to have also more or less decided on their goal setting.

What remains is Central Ukraine, which wants to keep everything for itself and not give anything to anyone.

Oh! Yes, everything will be as Molfar Nechay said. The West will take Z.U. and the rest will go to Russia. The main thing he said: “Our nation is dying out. Brother will go to brother, and this is what the third party did. Then everything will be like it used to be, Romania, Poland, Hungary will take their lands, all the rest will go under Russia. And after that everything will be Fine"

[Cheshire]

Quote: APASUS

Waiting for a response to the offer.

My reaction - God save us.

[Civil]

To paraphrase the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Provisional Government Milyukov:

the position of Russia does not give any reason to think about the weakening of the role of Russia in the common struggle and proclaims the nationwide desire to bring the NMD to a victorious end

[ivan1979nkl]

William Burns did not visit Russia

William Burns: That man in the red wig with the fake mustache? no, you misunderstood - it was not me

[blackGRAIL]

Well, the world is not beneficial for the American at this stage. They have not yet achieved their goals (in the process, and the world is guaranteed to frustrate them), and this war is probably the most ideal war for the United States in their entire history. And the stakes in this war, again, are the highest in the history of the United States.

[Sarmat Sanych]

Let's describe the current situation on the fronts. But not in the format of military pornography “this village has already been taken, but this one has not yet”, but in the three dimensions of the war - in military, economic and informational.
The military potential of Ukraine has been destroyed, not only almost everything that the Kyiv regime had at the beginning of the NVO was destroyed in a year, but also most of what was supplied to this regime during this year by its Western masters.
A clear indicator of the real state of affairs is the situation with the mobilization in Ukraine, where old people and teenagers are being swept away right on the streets, inventing new tricks for this. And the head of the personnel department of the command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Roman Gorbach, said that Ukrainian citizens who are limitedly fit for military service can be mobilized. For understanding: the category "limited fit" means a wide range from diabetics to dtspshniki.
As for new arms deliveries, the figures there are also quite eloquent: against the backdrop of several thousand armored vehicles already destroyed, talk about a couple of hundred new ones is up to about 5% of the already destroyed.
Hopes that such meager deliveries will be able to change something have a direct historical analogy - this is the "Wenck's army". Let me remind you that she honestly tried, literally in a day she raked and lost up to 90% of her personnel (already very incomplete), after which she randomly retreated and the remnants surrendered to the allies.
The difference is that Hitler at least had this army. And Zelensky has supplies of Abrams and Leopards so far only in the form of promises. Moreover, the Leopards promise by the summer, and the Abrams by the beginning of next year (and only the beginning of February is in the yard). In general, "Mein purer, Steiner will not come."
The inevitability of the military defeat of Zelensky's Nazi regime is already obvious even to the majority in the West (primarily the military). Therefore, no one wants to participate in the "lost cause" - this explains all the numerous excuses for trying to force them to supply military equipment to Kyiv. And they will lose the equipment, and then Russia will remember and ask.
The most intelligent were the Croats. Because scientists. During World War II, they took an honorable first place in terms of percentage of losses on the eastern front - the Soviet Army destroyed over 90% of the personnel of the Croatian volunteers who fought on the side of Hitler. As they say, “the more suicides, the less suicides”, and there are practically no such people left in Croatia.
Already the local president was brought by the raguli to the “Peacemaker” (but still “take the world with us”, and whoever is not with them is not “the whole world”). But if the choice is between "Get to the raguli on Peacemaker or provoke the wrath of the Russians", then the Croats make the right choice. And not only them.
Moreover, this very blackmail on the part of the Americans “Listen, lackeys, well, they quickly chipped in armored vehicles for the dill” only causes additional friction and tension within NATO.
A recent statement on the Politico website: the United States may allow other countries to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but they will not do it themselves.
That is, "We ourselves will not spend money, but you bought weapons from us, so now give it away for free into the abyss." Who will like this? Well, except for Lithuania and Estonia (but those don't have F-16s, they don't have anything at all).
Again, a simple mental exercise. Let's say you have twenty units of tanks of varying degrees of brokenness, you are forced (by twisting your arms in every possible way) to give four. What tanks do you think you will give away then? Are the very best? Or those that are no longer on the move (and still unscrew everything you can from them for spare parts)? The exercise is over.
Even officially, the Americans and the British say that they will remove secret equipment from their tanks before they are sent outside ...
Let's move from the obvious to the interesting. To the economy.
The IMF has revised its previous forecasts and now vanguts that this year the Russian economy will grow by 0,3% of GDP. And the British economy is not expecting growth ... even under the most optimistic scenarios (and the IMF always draws “its own” as optimistically as possible, and then revises it downwards), the fall in the UK's GDP will be 0,5%.
Things are not much better for other Western countries, members of the anti-Russian coalition.
Let me remind you that a record - over 10200 - number of various "sanctions" have now been imposed on the Russian Federation. Although I have vague doubts, are they really imposing these sanctions on Russia? Judging by the results, it seems that for themselves.
At the same time, only 9% of foreign companies left the Russian market. Because "the market decided so, that's why, go steal!"
And those who left are now biting their elbows, howling and thinking about how to return (not everyone can, many niches are already occupied by smarter and far-sighted competitors).
Zara enters the Russian market under a new name (several years of brand promotion to Biden down the drain). Adobe is resuming support. “Small-soft” say “Download now, pay later” (and are looking forward to the onset of this “later”). Gabin calculates lost profits and mutters “fucking Ukrainians” under his breath.
The Russian economy lives its own life. Reoriented to other markets (and why I am sure that they are much more interesting and promising than the dying European one?), I set up import substitution, alternative supplies and, where necessary, the so-called "parallel" imports. And it can exist in this mode for decades - and also show GDP growth.
No, of course, everything is stable in the ward of Demura, Piontkovsky and Latynina - Russia (like China) has a maximum of 2-3 weeks left ... and it has been like this for many years in a row ... but even specialized specialists in white coats try not to look there without special need ( patients are incurable, it is impossible to help them, and the heat of the fool is going through the roof).
All the rest understand that it was not possible to strangle Russia economically (I don’t understand at all what they were counting on, it was initially an extremely unrealistic and inadequate plan).

Therefore, the last hope of the collective West is a victory in the information war, which will be expressed in a coup d'état inside Russia and the coming to power of someone pro-Western (depicting the face of an ultra-patriot with his face).
An even more inadequate hope than the hopes for a military victory for Ukraine and the economic strangulation of Russia.
For, firstly, “a refrigerator is stronger than a TV” (they themselves came up with this formula). And with the refrigerator (in the broadest sense) in Russia, everything is in order.
And, secondly, these plans of theirs were made without the slightest regard for the Russian mentality. Which reads "during the emergency (invasion, earthquake, and so on) no riots." Russians in trouble rally, not Maidan.
And these wretched ones who call to “beat the guards”, they do not understand that the “guards” will soon start to beat them themselves. For there are 152 million of us guards in Russia (together with new territories, from little Alyoshka in a tank helmet to a grandmother with a red flag).
Am I clearly explaining?
Therefore, there will be no Maidans in Russia (and there will be in Western countries).

So what awaits the collective West for another hundred years without a victory over the Russians.

[Egeny]

Lord, how many letters, straight ... essay. That's right, only the last sentence of the text and the thought that the West could not defeat Russia could be limited.
The whole world is in ruins if this world is without Russia.

[credo]

Let's describe the current situation on the fronts. But not in the format of military pornography “this village has already been taken, but this one has not yet”, but in the three dimensions of the war - in military, economic and information ....

I liked your presentation.
Hope it comes true.

[Egoza]

Quote: Sarmat Sanych

So what awaits the collective West for another hundred years without a victory over the Russians.

I hope more, 300 years

[blackGRAIL]

But our problem is that the Americans don't really need Ukraine's victory. They will receive all their trophies from the duration of this war (and the lost trophies are still so great that they will not allow the defeat of Ukraine at any cost now).

The situation with mobilization in Ukraine. Yes, it's getting worse. But at the same time, there is no shortage of personnel at LBS; Ukraine can afford to train tens of thousands of its soldiers abroad. And the main mob reserve of Ukrainians is those who left for Europe. They are very easy to mobilize and send to the front. We need a synchronous decision of the UG and the EU, a kind of conditional law on the "mobilization of citizens of Ukraine staying abroad." According to various estimates, this is from 500 thousand to 1 million. mobikov.

The West is supplying exactly the range and quantity of weapons that the United States considers necessary at the current stage. He categorically does not need a global victory for Ukraine. We all laughed very loudly and for a long time about the success of the Ukrainian offensive upon the return of Kherson. Yes, now the situation is completely different (defensive lines have been erected, the size of the group has been increased), but for some reason I no longer want to laugh. Indeed, as the Americans say, the moment of truth is coming. Will the Ukrainians be able to repeat the success or not.

Economy. Everything is sad here (for everyone except Americans). Our problem is that the Gauleiters of Ukraine, and even more so their Western masters, are absolutely indifferent to the economy. We have seen this in a mild form in the example of the Baltic countries. No decline in the economy and living standards of the population can change the anti-Russian course of the Baltic tigers. And (importantly) their population came to terms with it. There are no protests and there will not be. Politicians pursuing a self-destructive policy have won, are winning and will continue to win elections. And with Ukraine the situation is completely similar, only if Tribalty is a light option, then Ukraine is hardcore. The West will contain Ukraine until it realizes all its plans. And those resignations that the Americans have now launched in Ukraine show the seriousness of their intentions to achieve the targeted use of funds. The vacant posts will be filled by American proteges.

The destruction of the European economy, its decentralization and the relocation of production, workers, brains to the United States is the main prize of the Americans. It's a matter of Pax America's survival. And many European politicians (Pax America above all) sincerely support this, because they believe that their future for the white man in this world order is better than even the higher welfare of the nation. The war allowed the voices of the nationalists (those who believed that their countries were above everything) to be silenced, and stopping the war now will lead to the inevitable loss of power by the Euro-Atlanticists. At the same time, now the population of Europe in general in the hospital does not demand to stop feeding Ukraine and stop the war, they demand adequate compensatory measures to reduce the costs of war.

Something like this.

[Olga]

Quote from: blackGRAIL

the main mob reserve of Ukrainians is those who left for Europe. They are very easy to mobilize and send to the front.

- Agree. They feel uncomfortable in Europe, they complain about unbearable living conditions and bad attitude. They should go to the front, they will be better off there.
They are true patriots and will not pay off the mobilization, no.
And if we take away from them the possibility of giving a bribe for evasion, then they, as the most stupid of the stupid and the most patriotic of the patriotic, will not guess how to avoid death.

Indeed, everyone sees what he wants to see.

Quote from: blackGRAIL

The destruction of the European economy, its decentralization and the relocation of production, workers, brains to the United States is the main prize of the Americans

you can't argue here. Only one caveat - this "prize" must be worked out, it must be provided with means and objects of labor. Well, or to feed ("the brain", you know, should eat!). And these means and objects of labor, so far, continue to strive for China.

Quote from: blackGRAIL

And many European politicians (Pax America above all) sincerely support this, because they believe that their future for the white man in this world order is better than even the higher welfare of the nation

This is the real root cause of what is happening. It's bad that the so-called. Ukrainians do not understand this.
But the implementation of such plans fails, hence the neurosis of individual Western politicians. And nervousness is a sign of insecurity in success.

[tralflot1832]

They denied about 20% of the territory! And they didn’t say much about the surrender of the United States!

[Woodman]

The US authorities said that the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, did not visit Russia to offer the head of the Russian state Vladimir Putin the Crimea and Donbass in exchange for establishing peace.

Even if this is a fake, then I think it makes sense to widely disseminate such fakes about representatives of Western countries a couple of times a month. Today the states, tomorrow the Germans, then the Angles, etc. And pretty soon they won't trust each other. And it will be a little easier to resist the West...

[rotmistr60]

What difference does it make whether the head of the CIA was in Moscow or not, the main thing is that information was launched about the alleged "peacekeeping" initiatives of the United States, which Moscow refused. This means that the entire "civilized" world, once again, must be convinced of the "aggressiveness" of Russia and, with renewed vigor, begin to help Ukraine with those types of weapons that have not yet been supplied.

[voice of reason]

No. No former Ukraine. No Korean version of the section. Only new Russian regions and friendly Little Russia controlled completely by Russia.

[I dare to_notice_]

This is not a royal business. Himself from some head (even the CIA) to listen to proposals ...
For this, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has laurel.

[Dead duck]

With such success, you can offer the United States 20% of California, and return the rest to Mexico.
"fabulous..."

[FoBoss_VM]

Such an entity, which even the state does not turn its tongue to call Ukraine, should cease to exist. In the worst case, the border should pass along the line Vinnitsa - Zhytomyr. In the most favorable in its current borders, but in any case, only on the rights of the territories and regions of the Russian Federation. No autonomy, no independence. That's enough, enough of the game

[Uprun]

Striped in their repertoire, they say one thing, do another, and plot a third. Well, never mind, we have our own national interests, the main thing is that the word does not disagree with the deed.

[flicker]

However, the very fact of such publications in the Western media, even if Burns did not really visit Moscow, indicates that in the West such an outcome of the Ukrainian conflict is increasingly being accepted.

Still, the West ruined our plans, and we ruined the plans of the West, and it looks like we succeeded in this.
The conflict in Ukraine has dragged on too long for the United States, they did not count on this. They now have to support parasites from Ukraine, which is excessive even for their financial capabilities.
But the main thing is that they urgently need to resolve the issue with China And they have a maximum of two years for this. Here they are in a hurry.
So the mattresses are simply forced to merge Ukraine, but at the same time they want to do it on terms that are acceptable to themselves and not acceptable to us (no one asks Ukraine about anything at all).
That is why they raise the stakes so much with the supply of weapons (almost we will give everything to the ukrams) in order to negotiate for themselves more favorable conditions for draining Ukraine.

[Vert]

Trial BALL did not roll, leaving a bitter aftertaste.