The International Monetary Fund has improved the forecast of Russia's economic development for 2023 and 2024
No matter how hard the states of the Western coalition, led by Washington, tried to destroy the Russian economy with an unprecedented wave of sanctions, cause chaos in the country and thereby force Moscow to abandon the continuation of the special operation in Ukraine, these plans were not destined to come true. Contrary to the forecasts of even the Russian government and experts, and even more so foreign financial institutions, the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation at the end of last year turned out to be much more optimistic than expected.
This was recognized not only in our country, but also at the international level. Experts from the International Monetary Fund have adjusted Russia's economic development indicators for 2023 and 2024 based on actual data from last year, which also turned out to be better than forecast.
According to the IMF’s preliminary estimate made in April 2022, the Russian economy should have lost 2,5% of GDP; in July, experts lowered this figure to 6%, and already in October they corrected it to 3,4%. According to the January report of an international financial organization, in fact, the fall of the Russian economy over the past year amounted to 2,2%.
In this regard, the IMF also revised the forecast values of the final macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation for 2023 and 2024. Prior to the start of the special operation, the fund's experts assumed that Russia's GDP would grow by 2,1% this year; 2,3% respectively.
In the January report, the IMF improved the forecast for global GDP growth in 2023 to 2,9%, and for the Russian economy, experts significantly raised expectations - from a fall of 2,3% to an increase of 0,3%. Next year, experts say, Russia's GDP growth will be 2,1%.
It is noteworthy that the IMF's expectations are more optimistic than those made by the Russian government, which predicts a 2023% decline in GDP in 0,8, and the Central Bank - within 1-4%. According to the Russian authorities, the country's GDP in 2024 should grow to 1,5-2,5%.
The improvement of the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation was due, among other things, to the competent policy of the country's leadership in terms of regulating financial markets, reorienting exports and imports, and supporting both large businesses and SMEs. This year, the role of the state in the recovery of the economy will increase. Only their National Wealth Fund (NWF) in 2023 can allocate an additional 1,5 trillion rubles to finance infrastructure projects and support companies.
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