Three "d" of China and the USA: we press, we are friends, we reach
I. Not the recession, but the road to the rise
Some analysts say that the fate of China is a rapid decline in growth rates, then just a recession and economic collapse in the very near future - unless this authoritarian state comes to its senses and carries out political and economic reforms (which, however, these analysts do not believe). Other experts are confident that China will overtake the EU economy already in 2012, and by the year of 2016 it will become the largest economy of the planet.
Dariush Kovalchyk, Senior Economist, Credit Agricole Bank, saysthat the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy lasts seven quarters. In the second quarter of 2012, the growth rate of the economy was 7,6%, and in the third quarter - 7,4%. Industrial production is declining - instead of the projected 9,8%, the increase was 9,5%. Analysts add to these "gloomy" indicators: "... only." How about the fact that in the US GDP growth in 2012 will not be even two percent?
Head of the Laboratory of the Quantitative and Technical Economics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Fan Mingtai notesthat the recession of the economy of his native country will not be long. The state is now on the verge of new reforms, and the country is about to return to a leading position in the global market. (Yes, she didn’t leave them, we’ll add from herself).
In the OECD report “A look at 2060 year: long-term growth prospects” it is saidthat by 2060, the share of China and India in global GDP will surpass all the 34 countries that are members of the OECD, although now it is just over a third. China will overtake the EU by the end of the year, and four years later will become the largest economy in the world.
He will retain the status of world economic leader until 2020. Until this time, the PRC will grow faster than everyone else, and then India and Indonesia will explode ahead: after all, the working-age population in China is decreasing. According to the OECD forecast, by 2060, the coefficient of the demographic load in China (the ratio of the elderly and the working-age population) will increase fourfold. China now benefits from strong productivity growth and large investments in the past ten years.
According to experts, by 2025, the aggregate GDP of China and India will exceed the total economies of the G7 countries, and by 2060, the economies of the countries taken together will be one and a half times larger than the economies of the G7.
As for China’s per capita income, by 2060 it will be 25% higher than the current equivalent in the United States.
At the CPC congress, it was said that the Chinese economy would keep from recession, measures will be takenensuring sustainable development of the economy, in particular, measures to increase domestic consumption, increase incomes of the population, control inflation and restructure investments. In China, the fight against corruption is intensifying. Model officials appear. Recently, support for the introduction of strict control over the actions of officials expressed at the congress at the meeting of the Shanghai delegation, the secretary of the party committee of this metropolis and one of the likely candidates for the future Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee Yu Zhengsheng:
Comrade Yu Zhengsheng is ready to publish full information about his property if the Central Committee makes such a decision.
At the congress of the CPC Hu Jintao presented ambitious development plan for China. Among other things, it says about the planned doubling of per capita income by 2020 year. Such a goal reflects China’s attitude towards achieving a high standard of living, similar to the Western one, and at the same time reducing social tensions. In solving these problems, not only will higher incomes be provided for the population, but also domestic demand will grow, which the PRC lacks. At the same time, it becomes obvious that the ambitious goal for China, in addition to economic recovery, is also a challenge - financially, economically, and politically - to Western domination of the planet.
The new generation of Chinese leaders will be headed by Xi Jinping. Deng Xiaoping before him outlined a dual policy: to carry out economic reforms, while maintaining the communist regime. The press often repeated his statement:
The new leader will face the difficult task of managing the Chinese economy and making Chinese politics for a full ten years. Barack Obama opened his cards at the pre-election debate with Romney, saying bluntly that the PRC is the main reason for the US strategic reorientation to the Asia-Pacific region. Obama said he wants to show China that the United States is still the Pacific state.
Comrade Xi, experts suggest, will turn the locomotive of the Chinese economy into the country: after all, the "great Chinese machine" is losing steam in vain. In Europe, purchasing power declined sharply, and trade relations with the US are deteriorating. Therefore, China must maintain a huge economic growth due to domestic demand.
In addition, Xi Jinping believes that China needs to compensate for the fall in exports to developed countries by expanding trade on the Asian continent: after all, there is still some economic dynamics.
Further, the Chinese currency, the yuan, will become part of the new regional financial architecture, and opportunities will be found for the yuan to become an international reserve currency.
China hopes to further strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
ASEAN will transform the Chinese from a dollar into a yuan block and will try to transfer this regional group of countries from the traditional alliance with the West to an alliance with the PRC.
Such grandiose plans will not do without China’s strengthening of its armed forces, and at the same time not preparing them for any attempts by the United States to encircle the PRC.
In general, Xi Jinping will never “relax”. Geopolitical confrontation is inevitable. Global military strategic challenges to China are all the more likely if the OECD forecasts prove correct.
Ii. "Malignant tumor"
Other analysts believe that there will be not so much confrontation as cooperation - inevitably not only and not so much competition and even “cold war”, as partnership. It really can not be avoided: the economies of China and the United States are interdependent.
Experts are set The question is: if China’s sustained economic growth eventually closes the gap with the United States, which has so far been unsuccessfully struggling with the domestic economic recession and is experiencing growing pressure on the labor market, will the Chinese anti-Chinese sentiment in the current largest economy in the world not spoil the final bilateral relations?
Indeed, today the relationship between China and the United States seems to be one of the most important issues in the world, since a definite answer to it will have far-reaching consequences for the entire world order.
There is an opinion on this matter of Hu Jintao: maintaining healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations is in the fundamental interests of both peoples and is conducive to peace, stability and development in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as a whole. Comrade Hu recently congratulated Mr. Obama on his re-election, saying that China is ready to go along with the United States on the path of further progress in bilateral relations, which will be useful for both the Chinese and the American people, as well as people around the world.
The Chinese expect the Obama administration to have a more balanced and less confrontational policy toward China. After all, today, in a globalizing world, the two largest world economies are very closely related, which speaks of the primacy of partner China-US relations. Yes, there are trade disputes, yes, there are disagreements about exchange rates, there are problems in the field of intellectual property rights and a number of other issues, but both parties could solve them through a joint search for answer options, through consultations.
Experts believe that cooperation between China and the United States is a panacea not only against economic shocks, but also the road to maintaining world order, as well as a way to overcome such challenges as terrorism, climate change, etc.
There is, however, a slightly different opinion. Professor Jeffrey Garrett, Dean of the Business School of the University of Sydney and Professor of Political Science at the Center for United States Studies, sureA: China and the United States will never be friends. And yet ... and yet he believes that these enemies
The election in the United States, the analyst writes, did not change the balance of power in Washington, so the continuity in politics is taken for granted. Obama's strategic direction abroad will be to restore the balance of US foreign policy in Asia, precisely with the goal of influencing China’s growth path.
However, Obama cannot be unaware of the interdependence of the American and Chinese economies. And the strengthening of the American presence in Asia will coincide with the growth of tensions in relations with China, which at one point may even get out of control. So what should Mr. Obama do?
Professor Jeffrey Garrett agrees that
Hence, the professor concludes: such economic interdependence means that China and the United States will never go to the second cold war. And at the same time, Sino-US relations, the analyst returns to his main topic, will always be tense - because of the very different ideologies of the two superpowers.
So here's where the dog is buried, let's add on our own: different worldviews! One stubbornly wants to be a hegemon, and does not allow them to become the second. After all, there is only one value: American.
At the same time, the expert adds, the United States believes that they are still strong enough to get involved in such a game.
For example, the professor takes Australia, Korea and Japan. What do they have in common? And the fact that China is their leading economic partner. But there is one more thing: their alliance with the USA is the basis of their national security.
Hence, Obama's strategy is aimed at reminding China: yes, you Chinese have many major trading partners, but the US also has many good partners, as well as allies. Obama makes it clear to Beijing in the following way: more marines in Darwin, holding joint naval exercises with Japan, including the situation in the South China Sea on the agenda of the East Asia summit, and a lot more.
Jeffrey Garrett declares: the United States cannot restrain China’s growth, but neither does it try. They want to continue to cooperate with China, but are worried about their risks: as if growing up China did not turn out to be a "malignant tumor" on the body of the globe.
Most likely, let us add, the United States is ready to tolerate the presence of China behind itself, somewhere in second place, and even in third place. These are the “rules of the road” that we are happy to adhere to in Washington.
The US today has 12 aircraft carriers, Russia has 1 (“Admiral Kuznetsov”), and China will soon have 7: Varyag, bought from Ukraine and modernized, and 6, which are still in the plans (and plans are made in China). This cannot be liked by the United States, because it is very similar to “catch up and overtake” and is not at all like the desire to go second or even third. That would suggest who the United States go third - they would agree?
USA пишет Natalia Serova, we can congratulate on the fact that they managed to draw China into the arms race. We must agree with the analyst: after all, it is not America that is chasing the Chinese, but the Chinese behind America.
Americans do not have the moral right to reproach China with hostility. The United States itself generates a large share of military hysteria: after all, the increase in tensions between America and China is connected, among other things, with the adoption of the strategic document in Washington by Washington 3 in January: “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 2012 Century Defense”. This strategy states that the strengthening of the PRC in the long term may affect the economy and security of the United States. The key points in the adopted US military strategy are reduced to a reduction in the number of American armed forces while simultaneously concentrating budget resources on the development of satellites and unmanned aircraft. The strategy also implies a reorientation of resources to the APR.
Obama starts and wins - that's the plan for the White House. The Chinese, of course, cannot agree with this. They cannot retreat from development plans either.
What for?
Thus, the key components of the mutual policy of the United States and China will remain three "d": pressure, friendship, achievement. Both powers will continue to put pressure on each other, they will also sing a duet about the planned friendship, but let's wait for 2016 of the year about achievements. If the United States is fighting for China to remain in second place, then Beijing, having unwillingly accepted the challenge, at the CCP congress seriously thought about circumventing the hegemon at the turn.
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