Change of world view
Since the European Union acquired its own single currency, so many beautiful words have been said about the alternative to the dollar that it no longer inspires. But this was the case until recently - although as a result, among other things, the initiative of Nursultan Nazarbayev with a single Eurasian altyn was successfully thrown around.
The appearance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies brought the topic back to the front pages, however, with all the exchange rate growth of “money in digital”, trust in them is becoming less and less every year. And the fact that there is more and more wildly expensive mining only worsens the perception of "crypto" in the ranks of the general public.
But it is especially interesting how, in parallel with the adventures of bitcoin, there was a revaluation of values in the field of traditional currencies. After a series of crises and a rollback of the euro below the dollar, it became clear that the status of the “new world” currency simply did not pull the euro. Its almost complete garter to the dollar is no longer a secret to anyone.
But the yuan, also tied to the dollar through foreign trade relations of supposedly fiercely hostile China and the United States, cannot be the world currency. It is clear that the ruble has no chance, although quite a lot of people are drawn to it through the EAEU and the confrontation with the United States.
However, the disconnection of Russian banks from SWIFT is still not a joke, and everyone, even in the EAEU, would very much like Russia to bear financial losses only and exclusively.
Nevertheless, it is in our days, after the pandemic and with the escalation of the CBO, that rumors around a new world currency are no longer rumors.
Sur, and only
In fact, very active analytical work is underway, which may take years, as with the euro, but may take a few months, since much, even a lot, has already been done before. It is no coincidence that such projects as Brixi, Evraz, or the completely extraordinary Brazilian-Argentine Sur or Sur - that is, the South, are popping up now.
But if the launch of the currency between the BRICS countries almost this spring was already announced by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, then the heads of the two interested states, but not even the heads of central banks, are talking about Sura. The status is higher, but the terms can be longer or shorter.
Something else is more important now - many are simply tired of the disadvantage of the dollar for poor countries. In addition, even in the US Congress, the very real threat of an American default, at least an external one, has been voiced. And we must not forget about the need, and in fact - the duty of everyone, everywhere and everywhere, and always to operate with two currencies.
What other arguments are needed in favor of a new world or at least local regional currencies? The euro nevertheless saved the Europeans from the bond with the dollar, and this is just the most contagious example. True, the euro did not shake the position of the dollar, but the alternative BRICS currency can shake.
However, this is not about her, but about Sur - "Sur", which is able to reach the second place in the world after the euro in terms of issuance. But only under one condition - the issue should be, if not complete in relation to the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso, then at least exceed 50% of the turnover.
It is unrealistic to do this in a short time, but it is also necessary that not only Argentina and Brazil themselves, but also all the rest, especially the countries of Latin America, begin to work with the single currency without any problems. There, as is known, the turnover of intra-country and intra-continental trade exceeds 90% of the total.
In connection with the Argentine-Brazilian initiative, one cannot fail to recall that Russia and Brazil are the most active in declaring their desire to get out of the dollar. Within the framework of the BRICS, their readiness to introduce a single means of payment was not very supported by India and China, which have a lot of contradictions in the financial sphere.
In general, the Chinese do not really need some kind of "Brixie", since it is simply more profitable for them to manipulate the yuan that dominates the BRICS. But for the Indians, the advent of Brixi is a very real threat to the position of their rupee, which is already not very in demand, since you can’t buy a lot of it without unnecessary hassle.
Shooting blanks
Isn't that why the rather unexpected proposal of the fifth member of the BRICS, South Africa, to accelerate the transition to the "Brixi", at least within the framework of the not yet promoted New Development Bank - in fact, the BRICS bank, caused such an ambiguous reaction.
The experts reacted in a very original way to the prospect of the prompt introduction of either Sur or Brixi. Many generally believe that there is a kind of race going on that will help one way or another to shift part of their economic and financial problems onto junior partners. Already beyond the BRICS and beyond the borders of Brazil and Argentina.
As you know, none of the initiators of the introduction of common money has complete order, or at least relative stability with budgets, inflation, and exchange rates. Inflation for many people goes off scale, although it is camouflaged, as we have in Russia. But Russia is at least more comfortable paying for imports not in the currency of "unfriendly" countries.
By themselves, neither Sur nor Brixi can serve as a solution to problems, although they will save you from most of the headache with the optimization of calculations. However, the locality of such currencies is quite predictable in itself, and therefore talk about a “new world” is nothing more than PR, rather pathetic, and propaganda, which, by definition, should be, if not stupid, then certainly rude.
But "Sur" - for sure, and "Brixie" - will almost certainly become local - mainly for internal settlements. Between Argentina and Brazil or Commonwealth: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. As soon as the mechanisms for issuing such currencies are determined, it will be possible to understand how dominant the position of the Sura or Brixi will be.
There is no need to prove that the potential volumes of trade in such currencies can be huge. The experience of the euro is quite enough, but there, after all, the transition to a single currency from national ones turned out to be quite lengthy - the public was not pulled.
However, outside of the BRICS and the South American pair, absolutely nothing can change at all. And this is no longer a blow to the dollar, but a blank shot, or rather, shots. Both the issuance of dollars and their withdrawal from circulation, called sterilization, are nowadays a matter of a few clicks on the Fed's computer.