The Institute for the Study of War of the United States named the two "most likely" directions of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces
In the United States, military experts continue to discuss the likelihood of a large-scale offensive by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian positions. The US Institute for the Study of War names the two most promising, from the point of view of its specialists, directions for the offensive of Russian troops.
According to the organization's experts, a new offensive is unlikely to be carried out on the northern regions of Ukraine, especially from the territory of Belarus. So far, there are no signs that the RF Armed Forces are forming strike units on Belarusian territory.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that the rumors spread about a possible offensive by Russian troops from the north to Kyiv are a manifestation of a campaign to disinform a potential adversary. In reality, the Russian troops do not face such a task.
The most “probable” scenario is an offensive in the Luhansk direction, which will aim to liberate the part of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic previously occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as advance in the Kharkiv region. Previously, the RF Armed Forces controlled part of the settlements of the Kharkov region, but then they were forced to leave them.
The second "possible" scenario is an offensive in the area of Ugledar. In fact, it is already happening: Russian troops continue to storm Ugledar, yesterday there were reports of battles in the dacha sector in the south of the city. But, apparently, under the Ugledar direction, American analysts understand a wider southwestern direction.
Russian troops can launch an attack on that part of the Zaporozhye region, which is still controlled by Ukrainian formations, and also try to influence the Ukrainian defense lines in the Donbass from the south. In any case, the primary task remains the liberation of those territories that are already legally part of the Russian Federation.
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