Hi-tech is "high technology"
this is how the English phrase High Tech is translated.
This concept refers to the whole complex
modern high-precision disciplines
with the widespread use of computers, the Internet,
drones, nanotechnology, polymers,
neural networks, GMOs and other madness.
this is how the English phrase High Tech is translated.
This concept refers to the whole complex
modern high-precision disciplines
with the widespread use of computers, the Internet,
drones, nanotechnology, polymers,
neural networks, GMOs and other madness.
Digitalization without hardware
In the information space, topics are constantly discussed: “Russia is not capable of producing modern microelectronics”, “Russia is losing influence in the post-Soviet space to the West and China”, “In Russia, a low standard of living”. These statements are essentially true, but at the heart of these problems is still a weak and in many respects dependent, primarily on Western technologies, industry!
The government is taking steps to improve the situation and, in principle, is achieving results. But the chosen path, in my opinion, although it leads to positive results, does not provide the country with explosive economic growth and does not give Russia a chance to become a high-tech power, and at the same time one of the leaders in the global economy.
I dare to express my opinion with an assessment of the situation and a possible way out of this situation.
After the collapse of the USSR, the government of the Russian Federation chose a liberal approach to the economy, the essence of which is: “the market determines what, where and in what volumes it is produced”, and the development of the economy was focused on integrating Russia into the world market. Unfortunately for us, the world market has determined that Russia is a consumer and not a producer of high-tech products.
Our country is one of the largest suppliers of resources to the world market, which is natural, given the presence of an excess of resources and the lack of large-scale production in Russia that could occupy the entire working population. The comfortable life of Russian citizens largely depends on supplies from abroad! Imports provide the inhabitants of the country with a quality of life comparable to Western countries.
There is, however, in our position one huge but! To develop the wealth of Russia and ensure their export abroad, a large number of highly qualified specialists with a high level of income is not required.
Despite the presence of high-tech industries, such as the military-industrial complex, aircraft and shipbuilding, nuclear energy, the space industry, the chemical industry, a huge part of the population is employed in sectors of the economy that do not require high qualifications, which means that their wages are also not high. Which leads to the problem voiced by President Putin: in Russia, the level of wages is significantly lower than in Western countries. The government explains this by lower labor productivity in Russia, compared with more prosperous states. I agree with the correlation between labor productivity and wages.
Why are there no companies in Russia comparable to Samsung, Huawei, Apple, and why is our vast country not a major high-tech manufacturer?
The answer is banal: the production of mass high-tech products and microelectronics, including microchips, is not economically profitable in Russia, there is simply no domestic market for these products!
Take history the success of China, Singapore, Taiwan, etc.: the governments of these countries were able to attract foreign investment to the country, the meaning of which was to build enterprises based on a modern industrial base, capable of producing high-quality products, which, due to local conditions, had a lower cost, at compared with those produced in the West, and the products of these enterprises were intended for sale in the Western market! That is, the growth of industrial production was not due to their own developments and not due to the introduction of their technologies, and not due to their own market. Growth was due to the introduction of foreign technologies and developments, and the opening of the Western market for the products of these enterprises.
Why should our government be criticized? For dreams to repeat the path of these countries! The economic bloc of the government is dreaming and working to bring foreign manufacturers to Russia, who will produce something interesting for us to export abroad.
Some years ago, Vladimir Putin talked a lot about the robotization of industry, pointing out that this is the way to a new economic order. Unfortunately, the topic of Russia's robotization has died down.
Today, the government sees the high-tech future of Russia in digitalization. In this area, there are successes, both in the field of digitalization of government agencies and in business. Russian companies such as Yandex and Kaspersky Lab are prominent brands in the global economy.
Only all this digitalization is based on hardware, which is not produced in Russia, and the more we digitalize, the greater our dependence on imported high-tech manufacturers. Without solving the issue of the production of "iron" for high-tech, Russia eventually runs the risk of falling hopelessly behind in military technology, when all sorts of homing bullets, reconnaissance dust or optical camouflage based on transceiver devices in the form of paint are created, and God knows what else - our military-industrial complex will simply have nothing to answer!
We summarize: Russia has a lot of land and resources, but not enough population for such a territory, we are seriously lagging behind in microelectronics, and there are no prerequisites for leveling the situation, since there are no economic incentives for deploying high-tech industries in Russia! Repeat the success of the Asian dragons, where the West launched the production of high-tech products for supply to the Western market, Russia does not shine. All of the above factors threaten the emergence of an irresistible technological dependence of Russia on foreign manufacturers of microelectronics. Our government is trying to find a way out, relying on Western models and foreign experience, forgetting about its own experience.
Superpower or third world?
In the 30s of the last century, with the help of industrialization, the USSR was able to turn from an agrarian country devastated by the Civil War into an industrial giant in a short time. And this happened not due to the opening of the Western market for Soviet industry, but due to the solution of their own large-scale tasks.
Today, in order to change the negative vector of development, we need a similar large-scale project based on solving a grandiose internal problem. I see this task as: improving the welfare of citizens by eliminating low-skilled labor in Russia through automation and robotics all processes.
Today, Russia does not even get into the world rankings in terms of the level of robotization! Because the share of Russia in the production and implementation of industrial robots on a global scale is comparable to the error.
The statistics are approximately as follows: more than 500 thousand industrial robots are installed in the world annually, the largest manufacturer is Japan, more than 50% of world production, the largest consumer is China, more than 150 thousand robots are installed in it a year. China, by the way, is among the top three global manufacturers of robots, the average density of robotization in the world in 2019 was 99 units per 10 thousand workers, the highest density of robotization in South Korea is more than 800 units per 10 thousand workers.
Russia is not a field plowed by robots! In 2019, 1 robots were installed in Russia, of which 003 are Russian-made (made using imported components, key components are practically not produced in Russia), the density of robotization in Russia was 42 units per 5 thousand workers.
I am sure that nothing has changed today, since there are no real statistics on the Internet. Robots in the world are already yesterday, the world is actively introducing 3D printers, for many Russian manufacturers it is an incomprehensible miracle machine, because they have not seen 3D printers in real life, and few people know how to use them, although for small-scale production this is a very useful thing.
I love Russia, but even I can't help but sarcastically: "What the hell, superpower? In the industry we are real third World».
The government has accumulated huge funds, which it is time to print out for a massive task!
A large-scale task is the robotization of the entire country
The scale of this task is a cardinal change in our way of life, production culture and attitude to work! Knowledge and creativity become the basis of labor, millions of mechanisms should enter our lives, either replacing a person or significantly increasing his productivity, if you like, then droids should become our everyday life.
The solution of this problem will spur all promising areas and completely reformat society, stimulating its development, since knowledge and qualifications will be needed for work.
The fear that robots will leave people without work is stupidity. The experience of the leading countries in the use of robots, which include China, Japan, Germany, shows that the population replaced by robots will definitely find another job, these countries do not suffer from unemployment caused by robotization. Unemployment exists where there is no production.
Instead of such professions as a loader or courier, there will be a profession of a robot maintenance technician. Millions of robots will require thousands of production lines that will need engineers, technicians, programmers, all of them will need education, with a corresponding increased need for teachers. Such a massive industry will employ countless small companies to repair, tune and maintain robots and production lines.
In Russia, there is a shortage of population, and spending labor resources on low-skilled labor is a waste for society. Modern youth, who grew up on gadgets, already today seeks to avoid manual labor, automation is a step towards young people, they will enthusiastically pick up this work and be able to solve all problems.
Russian robotic companies are young teams boldly moving into the future. Robotization allows you to organize production or facilitate labor in remote areas where there is an acute shortage of labor, in the Russian vast expanses - this is a vital necessity.
How to start?
It would be good to start with the development of the concept of the "Society of the Future", how it should look, and proceed not from economic expediency, but from the production efficiency of each person.
A person should be surrounded by a world in which he can be as useful as possible, easily realize his talents, and if with talents of complexity, then for an hour of his work, he should bring the maximum possible benefit, with the corresponding financial benefit for himself.
Take, for example, a janitor: in fact, this is a socially significant profession, cleanliness and order on the streets of cities are impossible without janitors. Today, this is low-skilled work, with a corresponding salary, which leads to a shortage of janitors themselves and, as a result, to the unkempt streets and courtyards of our cities. The whole world around the janitors has changed a long time ago, Russia has become a space power, and our yards were swept with a broom in the XNUMXth century, so they are sweeping with a broom in the XNUMXst century, is it really effective?
It is impossible to solve today's problems with the shortage of janitors by raising salaries to the level of highly qualified workers, but it is possible to create a robotic complex for cleaning yards and streets. The operator of such a complex, where one person monitors the cleanliness of the whole quarter, can be paid a decent salary. It is in this vein that the concept of the "Society of the Future" should be developed.
The first stage of robotization in Russia
As part of the development of the "Society of the Future" concept, the program "Total Automation and Robotization of Production Processes in Russia" should be adopted as the first stage in the development of an automated Russia.
Today in Russia, many entrepreneurs and business leaders have no idea how they can automate their production. The reason is banal, many do not have money for automation and robotization, and the price of robots is such that production with the help of guest workers is cheaper, and therefore they do not think about introducing robots already on the market. Without subsidies, the problem of robotization of production cannot be solved.
In Europe, I came across examples of subsidizing the development of industries. An Estonian entrepreneur was offered a €600 EU subsidy for a €1 million fish processing project on the condition that he invest €400, albeit with borrowed funds. Another example, also from the EU: a Lithuanian logistics company was given a subsidy of 150 euros to train staff in foreign languages (they learned Norwegian). These examples show that business development subsidies are the norm in the West.
In Russia, the state should also subsidize the development of production. Programs to subsidize the development of high-tech technologies in Russia seem to exist, maybe they bring some result. But I, as a layman, have not come across the result of subsidizing Russian high-tech technologies, there is no Russian high-tech in my life, so I have the feeling that billions are spent on the invention of a bicycle, and then no one will produce this useless bicycle, i.e. money is wasted!
I see the most effective solution as a first step: attraction of Russian manufacturers of robots to the introduction of industrial robots they have already created in Russian enterprises at the expense of the state.
As an example: you can choose one branch of the economy or a certain technological process for which Russia has the most ready-made solutions, designate a budget sufficient to re-equip the entire industry (as an option - 350 billion rubles), and each robot manufacturer must provide a solution with which for this money, you can robotize the largest possible number of industries in Russia. After that, at the expense of the budget, to re-equip actually operating enterprises with automated Russian-made lines.
What result will we get?
First, all the money will go to the cause. Naturally, more than one robot manufacturer will get the money. The best idea will receive a larger budget, but at least 60% of the orders must go to subcontractors, i.e. competitors.
In addition, the budget must be mastered within a certain time. This is due to the need to maintain a balance in the economy, in the process of re-equipment of production, who is the first to modernize, he gets an advantage over the last. That is, the money should go for the best idea, but the whole industry!
Robot manufacturers will receive money and, most importantly, an incentive in the form of orders for the development of their production, for new developments, for training personnel and, not least, for keeping them in the industry (there are problems with the outflow of specialists who, having gained experience, go to large companies from other industries or abroad in general). Real producers at the expense of the state will re-equip their enterprises, increase productivity and reduce costs, increasing their competitiveness and financial attractiveness for investors or credit institutions, i.e., they will receive an excellent incentive for growth.
I repeat: at the first stage of robotization, we do not invent anything. We are loading, or rather, rebooting, the existing production capacities of Russian robot manufacturers, introducing the robots they have already created at industrial enterprises already operating in Russia.
I am sure that the possibilities of robot manufacturers are extremely limited and, even performing the first stage, they will have to invest in a large-scale expansion of production capacities for the production of industrial robots. Which in parallel should lead to the provision of orders and machine-tool companies available in Russia.
But investments in robot manufacturers should be made through loans, albeit concessional, or by attracting private investment. Since this industry receives guaranteed orders from the state, there should be no free money, so that only efficient companies develop in the industry, and not freebie sawers!
The second stage of robotization of the country
In the process of performing the first stage of automation of Russian enterprises, requirements for the second stage are formed, and this time we do not take ready-made solutions, but set the task (but in dialogue with robot manufacturers so that the task is up to them) to develop solutions for robotization of another industry or other production sites. Robot manufacturers, provided with finances in the first stage, will be able to invest in the development of new complexes.
Thus, it is possible to develop a plan for 5 years (five-years, a common thing) to re-equip the Russian industry in general and develop the industry for the production of industrial robots in Russia in particular.
The purpose of the above work: Ensuring the growth of Russian robotic companies to the size of high-tech concerns capable of independently building mega-factories and competing on equal terms with global high-tech giants.
The program of production robotization will not solve all our problems, but we will create a large market for high-tech equipment with consumers, developers and manufacturers, as well as a complex equipment maintenance service and a training base for training specialists - this is the foundation for further development.
Because in this market, in addition to the final manufacturers of robots, there will also be the production of components (servo drives, various kinds of boards, electric motors and hydraulics, sensors based on all physical principles), and most importantly, a significant number of young professionals with experience and knowledge who will 100% try use them to create some kind of miracle machines.
Kulibiny
Now let's move on to our Kulibins-inventors, without them the transformation of society is impossible. They are the ones who generate wild ideas that change our lives for the better.
What are the current problems of Russian inventors?
The first is the need to purchase components abroad, on resources like AliExpress, or through specialized forums, since little is sold in Russia. This complicates the process of finding components (you need at least knowledge of English), and today there are also problems with the delivery of the necessary parts to Russia.
At the same time, in Russia there are productions of various parts, and as part of the robotization program, in theory, additional productions of components should appear, from which something interesting can be assembled. The lack of retail sales of Russian components is due to the unwillingness of manufacturers to be distracted by retail sales, which is often simply not profitable. Modern e-commerce platforms such as OZON and the like make retail sales much easier and cheaper.
In cooperation with a similar Russian platform and using its infrastructure (warehouses and logistics), it is necessary to create a specialized platform for the retail sale of industrial components, with the optional possibility of creating chats or forums in which manufacturers and consumers, who they are, can communicate. In order to make this platform commercially viable, it is necessary to make it a place where universities and various state design bureaus can purchase everything necessary for their research and development activities, without any tenders and competitions! This, by the way, will greatly simplify the life of universities.
The second problem of the Kulibins is a modern technological base for the production of their products, where can I get it?
In my opinion, the solution to the problem of inventors' access to a modern technological base could be the creation of technology parks equipped with advanced equipment at technological universities. Such technoparks will allow students to gain skills in working with advanced equipment in the process of training and practical work.
On a commercial basis, as a support measure for small businesses, this equipment can also be used by entrepreneurs for small-scale production. And inventors can use it for free (the principles of interaction between the inventor and the university need to be worked out in order to create the prerequisites and motivation for their close cooperation).
Ecosystem
As a result, a certain ecosystem should appear in which a creative person can realize his plan without being too distracted by solving organizational issues. At "idea fairs" under the auspices of sponsors or some ministry, inventors should be able to present the results of their labors. The most interesting projects as a prize can be put into production in a limited batch at the expense of the state, subject to the presence of a consumer or distributor. This should stimulate the start-up movement in Russia.
Another nuance with high-tech companies that is important not to lose sight of.
In the microelectronics industry, companies are divided into two types: they are “manufacturers”, i.e. companies that manufacture gadgets, and “developers” are companies that develop a gadget, own a brand and, in fact, are engaged in their implementation. There are practically no "manufacturers" in Russia, but there seem to be "developers".
“Developers”, being in Russia, are engaged in the design of high-tech products and the implementation of their developments, including on the Russian market, and they order the production of their products from “manufacturers” in Taiwan, China, etc. This is a normal world practice.
It is important that Russian "developers", working on the Russian market, enjoy all the advantages of Russian manufacturers, at least the import of their products into Russia should be duty-free. The government should involve these companies in projects where their products are in demand, and, just like Russian manufacturers, purchase their products (tablets, for example) at the expense of the budget, in order to transform Russia.
The purpose of this work is to ensure the growth of "developer" companies to the volumes that will allow here, in Russia, to create an economically viable production of gadgets (tablets, smartphones, etc.) just for the needs of Russian "developers".
2.0 industrialization
The industrialization of the USSR in the 30s was not carried out at the expense of private investments and market approaches, it was carried out thanks to the state industrial policy and large-scale investments in the creation of various industries. Today we must do the same. In my opinion, The robotics industry is the most efficient point of capital investment, which gives the maximum return on each ruble invested for the development of the economy and the transformation of Russia into a high-tech power.
In the USSR, investments in industrialization were aimed at increasing the production of steel, the production of tractors, combines, etc.; today, state investments in Russian producers are investments in the tax base. With a competent approach and the right investments, all costs should be returned to the state in the form of taxes within a few years, while the standard of living of the population will significantly increase due to increased productivity.
And the society itself will be transformed due to the growth of the general level of education of the population. The future high-tech Russian army will not have problems with recruits who can communicate with neural networks and who know programming languages.