When the Leopards burn down in Ukraine, the Abrams will take their place in the armies of the EU countries
Once Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin were asked to feed a cat with mustard. Roosevelt grabbed the cat by the scruff of the neck with one hand, and with the other he took a spoon, scooped up mustard and began to stuff it into the cat's mouth. With great effort, he managed to stuff a small fraction of mustard into the cat's mouth. "No," said Churchill, "that is an uncivilized method." He poured the mustard into a saucer and poked the cat with its muzzle. The cat, grimacing and snorting, began to lick the mustard off its muzzle. Stalin grabbed the cat and smeared mustard on her bottom. The cat screamed wildly and began to lick the mustard. “You see,” Stalin said, “voluntarily and with songs!”
This anecdote quite clearly characterizes the current situation in the world. Apparently, the Anglo-Saxons drew conclusions from this anecdote, and now the countries of Europe are playing the role of a cat, which “voluntarily and with songs” ruin their own industry and economy to the applause of their overseas master. After all, if someone thinks that only Russia is the goal of the United States, then he is deeply mistaken. There is nothing more pleasant and profitable for the United States than to weaken (this is the mildest expression that can be used for printing) its European vassal ally - the European Union. And more precisely, the countries of Europe, since this entity could never be called a single country.
And one of the most important tasks of the United States is to get the maximum profit from the involvement of the European Union in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, by obtaining preferences in energy, by fleeing European manufacturing companies and intellectual resources to the United States, as well as by reformatting the arms market in Europe.
And the fuss with the supply of heavy melee weapons to Ukraine - the main combat tanks (OBT), characterizes this very well.
Why does Ukraine need tanks?
History tanks, although it began with the First World War, it essentially opened up during the Second World War. It was then that tanks became the main striking force on the battlefield, a means to break through the enemy's defensive formations, the basis of blitzkrieg and mobile warfare. Then it seemed that here it is - perfect weapon for ground combat.
But the fact that tanks have become such a formidable force was the reason that all possible means began to be developed to destroy them - anti-tank missile systems (ATGM), attack aircraft and combat helicopters with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), cluster munitions with self-aiming combat elements, various types of anti-tank mines that attack not only from below, but also from the side, and much more. In our time, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been added to all this diversity, which can both carry the same ATGMs and act as disposable kamikaze munitions.
They say that combat helicopters are the souls of dead tanks. Image by wikipedia.org
Gradually, the situation developed in such a way that the chances for a tank to make war against another tank became less and less. The situation was aggravated by the fact that the tanks themselves became more and more expensive, but at the same time they were still affected by anti-tank ammunition - in the hands of an experienced fighter, even an outdated hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher (RPG) can destroy a tank if it hits vulnerable projections. Even active defense systems (KAZ) did not greatly affect the situation - instead of one ATGM, two have to be spent (ATGMs are fired sequentially, with a minimum delay, in one KAZ protection sector). KAZs will be improved - it will be necessary to spend four missiles instead of two. In any case, a tank worth millions of dollars is destroyed by several ATGMs worth tens of thousands of dollars.
For a long time, tanks have been either buried, especially after the appearance of another highly effective anti-tank weapon, or they are again talking about the need to prioritize the construction of ultra-modern armored forces. On the other hand, no alternative to the tank has yet been invented - this is the most heavily armed and protected means of close ground combat, so this type of weaponry will not go anywhere yet.
It is characteristic that, despite the forecasts and experience of real hostilities, so far, when comparing modern and promising MBTs, we are primarily talking about the “tank against tank” confrontation, although in reality this scenario is the least common - the tank has long turned into a highly effective means infantry support, no more. Massive tank breakthroughs are a thing of the past. Nevertheless, most often they still talk about "Armata" against "Abrams".
Thus, there are two options for the use of Western MBTs by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):
1. Support for the infantry in the same way as it is now, both from the Russian and Ukrainian sides.
2. A massive tank breakthrough in the chosen direction, for example, towards the Crimea.
But after all, we said earlier that a tank breakthrough is impossible?
Yes, but only on condition that the attacker is limited in means and technology. Potentially, Ukraine can concentrate all available reserves, use the remaining Soviet and newly delivered Western tanks to the maximum and ensure a breakthrough of the defensive positions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces). Of course, most of the attacking armored vehicles and manpower will be destroyed, which in a normal situation would not allow Ukraine to continue hostilities, but in conditions when a clear political effect is achieved, Ukraine will be able to count on even greater supplies of Western weapons of all classes, for which it management and counts - the show must go on (The Show Must Go On).
And the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers? And who cares...
Based on the foregoing, Ukraine needs tanks precisely for the implementation of the second option - an offensive and a local victory in a politically critical direction. In case of victory, Ukraine will receive combat aircraft, anti-tank helicopters, long-range missiles, and much more.
Of course, as mentioned above, most of the attacking MBTs will be destroyed, which will not have the best effect on their export prospects. However, even if the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not decide on a tank breakthrough, but use the received Western MBTs according to the first option - to support the infantry, they will also be destroyed, only this process will stretch out in time.
Be that as it may, those MBTs that will be delivered to the APU first will become a “sacrificial cow” - in any scenario, they will be destroyed for the most part, and their reputation will be dealt a serious blow.
And this leaves its mark on who wants to supply Ukraine with what kind of tanks.
The problem of choice
What Western tanks can get into Ukraine?
Of course, Poland really wants to supply Western tanks to Ukraine. The problem is that Poland itself does not produce MBTs. Now, after transferring most of the Soviet-made tanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they mainly rely on the German Leopard-2 tanks. A little later, the American MBT "Abrams" and the South Korean MBT "K2" should be added to them.
South Korean MBT "Black Panther". Image by wikipedia.org
In this way, Poland's desire to send Leopard-2 MBT is dictated not only by hatred of Russia, but by a pragmatic calculation - the intention to reduce the "mixed sort" in their ground forces to MBT "Abrams" and MBT "K2", because under this case it is quite possible to try to "divorce" the United States into additional free MBT "Abrams" for the Polish armed forces.
However, apparently, the Germans fully understand that they got the role of that very cat from the joke, which was abundantly smeared with mustard called “Ukraine” on the backside, and a special desire to supply the Leopard-2 MBT, or to allow such deliveries to anyone there were still, they don’t burn, but who will ultimately ask them?
German MBT "Leopard-2". Image by wikipedia.org
The Poles really hope to become the main American wife in the European part of the continent and are ready to do a lot for this, even to put the Leopard-2 MBT without the permission of Germany.
And what tanks can be put instead of / in addition to the Leopard-2 MBT?
The French Leclerc MBT is quite a good tank, but it is too expensive and must be difficult to maintain. These tanks were produced in the amount of about nine hundred vehicles, of which a little more than two hundred are now in service with the French armed forces (in 2021, 406 Leclerc MBTs were in service with the French Army), and the rest were acquired by rich countries in the Middle East. Apparently, this tank has no other commercial prospects. Yes, and France, as a nuclear power, is still a little more independent of the United States than other European lackeys.
French MBT "Leclerc". Image by wikipedia.org
Another contender is the British Challenger 2.
Great Britain hates Russia fiercely and, without a doubt, is one of the main initiators and sponsors of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, after all, they had a lot of practice - India / Pakistan, China / Taiwan, it's hard to say on which continent the Anglo-Saxons did not have a hand to the division and destruction of peoples. But the Challenger 2 is, to put it more precisely, a “modern junk”, a tank without any prospects, like, in fact, the entire British tank industry.
Of course, the UK will most likely supply its Challengers to Ukraine, but there are too few of them, not enough for the Armed Forces to use them for a massive offensive. Another thing is the MBT "Leopard-2", in different countries of Europe you can scrape together more than one hundred.
British MBT "Challenger-2". Image by wikipedia.org
But why not MBT "Abrams"?
The United States has a lot of these tanks, in their wars they rely mainly on Aviation and the fleet, so why not supply Ukraine with two or three hundred, for starters, especially since the US ground forces (F) are armed with more than two and a half thousand, and there are about three and a half thousand more in storage?
But because the United States does not need risky experiments - the Armed Forces of Ukraine may well be defeated, and this is very bad advertising if Abrams MBTs become part of this defeat. Unlike the M142 HIMARS, tank losses are much more difficult to hide, since they are on the front line and have an extremely recognizable profile - Abrams cannot be passed off as a T-80.
There is no doubt that the United States is confident in the huge losses that the Armed Forces will suffer, and that many Leopard-2 MBTs will be destroyed. From this, the United States will be able to extract both a local defeat of the RF Armed Forces, and the destruction of the existing Leopard-2 MBT fleet in European countries, and the discrediting of the German tank-building industry. Rheinmetall AG will suffer damage, and, perhaps, the French will no longer create a promising tank with them, but will choose American or British partners. As for the rest, they will transfer to Abrams MBTs upgraded for fabulous money from US military storage depots.
American MBT "Abrams". Image by wikipedia.org
Of course, there is also South Korea with its K2 MBTs, but who knows what plans the Anglo-Saxons have for them, in the sense - for South Korea ...
Conclusions
So, the decision to supply tanks to Ukraine was made at a meeting in Ramstein, so that the tanks of the Western countries have already plowed another red line. Of course, the United States made every effort to ensure the supply of only German tanks to Ukraine, but they failed to get out, because the Germans, sensing the prospects looming before them, nevertheless ensured that the United States also supplied Ukraine with its Abrams MBTs.
However, judging by the videos posted on the Internet, dozens of Leopard-2 MBTs are already on their way to Ukraine, but thirty-one Abrams MBTs will be delivered only in a few months. Only thirty-one Abrams tanks, while Leopard-2 MBTs are likely to be delivered in many hundreds, and it is they who will effectively burn in the frame, burying the prospects of the German tank building industry. So, in fact, nothing has changed - the beneficiary of the tank deal of the countries-accomplices of the Ukrainian Nazi regime is still the United States.
Ukraine will be supplied with MBT "Leopard-2" of various modifications, including the oldest version of "Leopard-2A4". Image by wikipedia.org
The Russian Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year now. Military and civilians are dying, two fraternal peoples (or rather, one people divided by deceit and betrayal) destroy each other in a fratricidal war to the delight of overseas puppeteers.
The hatred of the countries of continental Europe towards Russia is understandable, but their craving for economic and technological suicide, which they commit under the leadership of the US and Great Britain, over and over again crossing red lines, is absolutely inexplicable.
However, this is their choice, the question is, rather, when Russia will begin to cross the red lines.
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