Rammstein. The name of this German military airbase is still well known today. Who has not written and talked about the results of the eighth meeting of representatives of Western countries on the issue of increasing military assistance to Ukraine. The issue is really serious and cannot be ignored.
However, looking through the materials following the meeting, reading the analytics from various experts, you come to the conclusion that in most cases the focus is only on the military component of the meeting, on the results, or rather, on the adopted assistance package. Although already at the beginning of the materials, many analysts talk about the main thing. About the supply of heavy tanks APU.
Honestly, I was sure that the Germans would not give permission to supply their tanks to Kyiv. And the point here is not at all the unwillingness of Berlin to intensify the escalation of the conflict. The point is the image losses of Germany in the event of the start of such deliveries.
The Germans understand as well as the Americans that their "Leopards" will burn perfectly on the territory of Ukraine. Simply because the Russians have already prepared for such a "surprise". How they prepared for the supply of other military equipment, which was discussed in Ramstein.
I have already written about the scheme that the United States uses. At the beginning of the delivery, and then talk about them. On January 23, according to some reports, trains with American infantry fighting vehicles were already seen in Holland. So, it is quite possible that tomorrow they can be seen already in Poland. As you understand, this is not a BMP teleportation, but a long-conceived and ongoing operation.
Business, nothing personal
What happened on the sidelines of the meeting in Ramstein? Why, despite the colossal pressure, did the German chancellor at first not give in to pressure and not give permission for supplies? Why can't the US mongrels - the same Poles and other American friends - just send the Germans somewhere and give the Leopards to the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
The answer to the second question is simple. It's not hard to convey. And Germany can't do anything about it. German tanks will not go to Warsaw. But a tank is a machine! And quite complicated, requiring not only refueling, but also repair. And this is where the danger lies.
The Germans will not service tanks illegally supplied to Ukraine. Consequently, in just a matter of days, formidable machines will turn into a pile of scrap metal. Some will be burned, some will be broken by great ukry, some will simply stand up without consumables.
By the way, exactly the same argument is used by the Americans to explain their refusal to supply Abrams.
But the first question is much more interesting.
I do not envy the German Chancellor today. Agree, when they try to break you up, it’s not pleasant enough. And Olaf Scholz is in just such a position today. On the one hand, it is pulled by the Americans and their friends, and on the other hand, by their own business and German politicians.
Let me remind you of a couple of stories that happened quite recently, in our memory.
Remember history with Turkish drones in Nagorno-Karabakh? What happened to the company that made them? How did a new god called “Bayraktar” appear in Ukraine? And what happened then, when these UAVs began to fall en masse, also remember.
Then a new god appeared. Also remember his name - "Javelin"! His fate is also known. This god lasted even less drones. Today in Ukraine there are many small gods: from "three sevens" to "Haymars". But there is no big, “great” deity. That which would become a symbol of dill victory.
Heavy tanks, according to the plan of the Pentagon and Kyiv, should become just such a deity. Today, the German Leopards are a symbol of NATO's power in Europe. The real competitor of the symbol of American power is the Abrams. This is where that notorious dog is buried.
And how does this most notorious god appear? How did the gods of World War II appear? The appearance of such weapons has always been facilitated by military victories. In the same way that defeats sent even beautiful specimens into oblivion. Such is the logic of war. No matter how much we talk about the shortcomings of the PCA, this is the most massive machine of war.
American businessmen are well aware that in order to maintain the image of the Abrams as the best tank of our time, serious victories are needed. After several military campaigns, where these tanks did not prove to be great, quite a lot of almost concluded deals fell through. And this is many billions of dollars.
The other day I saw a video on YouTube about how the Abrams is trying to climb an icy hillock. Nothing, in general, new. A heavy tank on tracks that are ridiculous for our conditions. As old as the world since the Second World War. But look today the same YouTube. This roller is wiped wherever possible. Such a video makes those customers think for whom snow is quite normal conditions in winter. Business does not want anyone to know more about the embarrassment of their products than they themselves tell.
And, unlike politicians, businessmen are realists. They understand that it is not necessary to expect serious victories from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This means that any weapons that will be provided to Kyiv will receive a lot of negative feedback. From here, precisely from the conclusions of businessmen, the nomenclature of future deliveries to Ukraine follows. The same ancient, long-decommissioned rubbish in their own armies. Or something that simply has nowhere to go, but it's too early to write off.
Support to suffer longer
It is interesting to analyze those deliveries that were announced in Ramstein, but in fact are already being carried out by the West. The first (and I am convinced quite often that the first is the best) thought is that this is a way to support the dying for at least some more time. It cannot be cured, but it is still possible not to let it die in peace. Let him suffer even more for the amusement of others. Something from the arsenal of medieval executioners with their quartering, rack or stake.
Yes, military assistance, on the one hand, for a fairly serious amount. The United States alone will supply $2,5 billion worth of military goods. But, on the other hand, in the situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are today, these weapons are ineffective. No matter how good the M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles are, but this is just an infantry fighting vehicle. Yes, and the number - 59 pieces, will not seriously change the situation.
Just like everything else. British tanks? Other weapons? Don't you think that this is a mockery of the Ukrainians. In the quantities in which they will be delivered to Ukraine, this is not even funny. NATO tactics include the use of RTGs as a combat unit. A company supported by a tank or tanks. 12 company tactical groups?
A lot of people today are talking about longer-range missiles and glide bombs that can be used to strike deep into our defenses. Indeed, knowing the skillfulness of the Ukrainians and about a lot of “modernizations” of various weapons, a hybrid of the “Haymars” and such a bomb is quite possible.
In total, such a hybrid can indeed fly about 160 km. But our air defense has already learned how to hit the missiles of the American complex. A hybrid will fly even worse.
The result?
And as a result, firstly, the secrecy of the launcher is lost. For minutes, but lost. The risk of losing this installation increases.
Secondly, most of the missiles will be shot down on the accelerating trajectory. And this hybrid needs to fly to a height of up to 20 km ...
Well, the response from the Russian army without fail. This factor must also be taken into account.
As a result, Rammstein showed that the West no longer believes in the victory of Ukraine. What was decided to be delivered is rather a sop to strengthen the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These deliveries will tickle our nerves, but in general they will play the role of an additional "bait" of targets for the Russian army.
The meat grinder will work in the same mode as today. But Zelensky and his team need only this to preserve their own power and even life. The idea of a fix about the depletion of Russia, popular uprisings and the further disintegration of our state in the practical implementation of Kyiv. And the same idea is deeply rooted in the heads of ordinary Ukrainians.
Take over Europe completely
To whom is war, and to whom ... How often do you have to remember this saying. It sounds especially vile given the deaths that war brings. But you can't throw words out of a song. This is not a play on words, but the reality of modern wars in general. Under whatever slogans wars start, in the end it all ends with someone getting rich and someone going bankrupt.
I touched above on the moment of discrediting German weapons in Ukraine. But there is also a continuation of this particular business theme. Little is said about this, but remember what, for example, the Poles demand for their deliveries of Leopards? They give the Leopards, but in return they should receive the Abrams!
This is not a whim of the Poles, not their desire to get something better than they have today. The superiority of the Abrams over the Leopard is rather doubtful. Spending billions on the purchase of "Americans", armed with "Germans", is stupid. And serving the "Germans" is much more convenient.
It's no secret that the Polish government goes out of its way to please the Americans in order to occupy Germany's niche in the European political arena. Poland's decision to change Leopards to Abrams is a US decision. This is what Washington needs, not Warsaw.
It is not for nothing that the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany periodically “buck up” at various summits of Western politicians. They are well aware that after the collapse of the economies of European countries, an attempt will follow to deprive Europe of at least some military resistance.
And the military machine of Europe today is largely based not on American weapons, but on French and German ones. The Americans tried to introduce their production in some European countries, but the situation did not change much from this.
Yes, European analogues of American weapons appeared, but the rearmament desired by the Americans did not happen. Today in Ukraine we see quite a lot of such analogues. They are used in Europe, but only by a few countries. It does not cause serious dependence on the USA.
German tanks, French planes and missiles, Italian armored vehicles, Swedish grenade launchers and several other types of weapons are the goal of the United States. By replacing European-made weapons with American ones, Washington is practically killing the EU military industry and depriving Europe of at least some possibility of resistance. Any European army armed by the Americans will simply not be able to use their weapons against the United States.
We talked and wrote for a long time about the fact that Ukraine is just a territory for a NATO-Russia war, the USA-Russia. Today it is no longer even a territory of war. This is a garbage dump, where everything that was stored in European and American closets and on balconies is thrown out, in case - "what if it comes in handy." Something that is no longer needed, but simply throwing away the hand does not rise.
The sad fate of the once promising, but sold for a penny country ...