Military Review

An American observer called strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities and partial mobilization in Russia the right decisions

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An American observer called strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities and partial mobilization in Russia the right decisions

The Russian armed forces were able to achieve good results in the process of a special military operation in Ukraine, using a limited number of their weapons. Barry Posen, a professor of political science and international relations at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), writes about this.


As the observer notes, the Russian armed forces, with their high-precision strikes, disable Ukraine's energy infrastructure facilities. The consequence of this is a decrease in the ability of the Ukrainian army to effectively use its air defense, command and control and intelligence systems.

According to Posen, since the fall of 2022, the Russian armed forces have begun to demonstrate a much more reasonable approach to conducting a special military operation than before. This was facilitated by partial military mobilization, which strengthened the forces at the front, and the campaign aviation attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.

Now the Kyiv regime is forced to divert all its air defense forces to protect the country's key cities and energy infrastructure. Power cuts in winter have an extremely negative impact not only on the lives of ordinary Ukrainians, but also on the country's industry, the functioning of state institutions and its defense capability.

According to the American analyst, his previous forecasts regarding the Ukrainian conflict, which he made in the summer of 2022, no longer work. Then Posen said that the fighting had reached a dead end, but now the situation has changed. He calls the “bitter truth” that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering very heavy losses. The conflict has turned into a "war of attrition" that is very costly for the Kyiv regime. None of the parties to the conflict, however, demonstrates a willingness to start negotiations.

Posen emphasizes that Russia is unlikely to agree to cease hostilities. The economy of the Russian state demonstrates stability, which reduces the likelihood of domestic political problems for the current Russian government.

Now the Russian armed forces are, according to an American analyst, in a much better position than in the summer of 2022. This hinders a possible transition to a peaceful settlement of the conflict, since there is simply no need to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Russia, Posen believes.

The analyst pays special attention to the issue of partial mobilization. Although many Western authors believe that she did not help the Russian military command much, Posen takes the opposite view. He believes that the appearance of 300 trained Russians liable for military service at the front has significantly strengthened the capabilities of the Russian armed forces in all directions.

The analyst also notes that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson makes some sense, since it helped the Russian command to focus on other areas. Thus, we can conclude that strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and partial military mobilization in Russia are considered by the American observer as the right decisions in the strategic plan.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 7 January 2023 11: 17
    +6

    Posen emphasizes that Russia is unlikely to agree to cease hostilities. The economy of the Russian state demonstrates stability, which reduces the likelihood of domestic political problems for the current Russian government.
    Of course, he is right here. The tasks of the SVO have not yet been completed.
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 7 January 2023 11: 24
      +5
      Quote: aszzz888
      he is right here

      They began to praise us for something .... Obviously they are preparing a trick! feel
      1. aszzz888
        aszzz888 7 January 2023 11: 27
        +5

        Uncle Lee (Vladimir)
        Today, 11: 24
        NEW

        +1
        Quote: aszzz888
        he is right here

        They began to praise us for something .... Obviously they are preparing a trick! feel
        There is such a sign. wink But, here is the statement of a political scientist, and of course it will not play any influence). Merry Christmas!
        1. ABC-schutze
          ABC-schutze 7 January 2023 11: 53
          +1
          I am not religious, but I accept congratulations with gratitude. And I'm joining...

          In addition, in my ancestors, along the same line, namely, the Vladimir Orthodox Gods ...

          And according to another, Orthodox "migrants" (possibly, however, Old Believers ...) the village of Nikolskoye, in Soviet times Lunacharskoye, Ttashkent region.

          Well, on the third line, they lived, somewhat "westward" ...

          So, all Russian Orthodox and Old Believers, also with their Christmas holiday ...
          1. Alexander Salenko
            Alexander Salenko 7 January 2023 14: 35
            +1
            And they tried to rein in my party grandfather, well, he was born on January 7, what can you do?
            Happy Holidays to everyone who celebrates.
      2. ABC-schutze
        ABC-schutze 7 January 2023 12: 07
        +1
        And they have been preparing "podlyanki" of Russia, at least since the time of the Troubles. And while they exist, they will cook ...

        It's just their "natural state". And in relations with them, Russia must proceed precisely from this ...
    2. ABC-schutze
      ABC-schutze 7 January 2023 11: 34
      0
      God willing, soon he, an AMERICAN, will begin to call "wrong" the TEN-MONTH ABSENCE of Russian regular, targeted and massive strikes on the decision-making centers of the Kyiv Nazis and the inhabitants of these rat houses ...

      It must be assumed that at least THEN, the Kremlin inhabitants will "hear" what is ALREADY "becoming clear" to the enemies of Russia, AL "beyond the ocean" ...
  2. Mihail0221
    Mihail0221 7 January 2023 11: 20
    0
    Power cuts in winter have an extremely negative impact not only on the lives of ordinary Ukrainians, but also on the country's industry, the functioning of state institutions and its defense capability.

    Minus 15 in the Belgorod region. I looked at the temperature in Ukraine. The further west, the higher, it's a pity ... crying
    1. Bolt cutter
      Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 11: 29
      +1
      The further west the higher
      In London +12 now belay .
      1. Mihail0221
        Mihail0221 7 January 2023 11: 33
        +1
        In London +12 now belay
        well, see how well you save on heating hi
        1. Oleg Ogorod
          Oleg Ogorod 7 January 2023 11: 38
          0
          Kaliningrad is now full of Germans who have come there for the winter. It is more profitable to rent a house there than to pay for heating in your own country. Pragmatists.
          1. Bolt cutter
            Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 11: 42
            +4
            now they speak a lot of Germans
            This myth has already been dispelled - the realtor gave an interview and said that the Germans were no more. Yes, and getting a visa to the Russian Federation is not so easy and quite expensive.
            1. Sergey250455
              Sergey250455 7 January 2023 13: 32
              0
              Those who have dual citizenship come. A lot of German pensioners live in the Kaliningrad region. It's easier to live in Russia
            2. saygon66
              saygon66 7 January 2023 23: 17
              0
              You don't even need a visa... smile Fan IDs for the kickball are still valid.
        2. Bolt cutter
          Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 11: 44
          +2
          save on heating
          In severe British frosts -2 Celsius, the monthly bill for gas + electricity was 110 pounds smile .
          1. Mihail0221
            Mihail0221 7 January 2023 11: 49
            +2
            In severe British frosts of -2 Celsius, the monthly bill for gas + electricity was 110 pounds smile .

            In 2015, at minus 20 in an apartment of 40 sq m, the gas bill was 800 rubles, a gas wall-mounted boiler is very profitable. Now I don’t live there, I can’t say how much it would be now
            1. Bolt cutter
              Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 11: 57
              +2
              In 2015 year
              I would have 40 pounds for the same 40 square meters. Yes, and today's 110 are quite edible - the average salary "on hand" per shift.
              1. Mihail0221
                Mihail0221 7 January 2023 12: 07
                +2
                I would have 40 pounds for the same 40 square meters. Yes, and today's 110 are quite edible - the average salary "on hand" per shift.
                Now I live in another apartment, I pay 1900 rubles for 40 square meters (centralized heating) 15 shifts per month 3600 rubles "clean" on average per shift. This is how we live and not only chew bread.
                1. Bolt cutter
                  Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 12: 10
                  +2
                  3600 rubles "clean"
                  And enough belay This is 41 pounds, with comparable prices for everything except excisable goods.
                  1. Mihail0221
                    Mihail0221 7 January 2023 12: 16
                    +1
                    And enough belay This is 41 pounds, with comparable prices for everything except excisable goods.

                    For travel as you wrote to me here (about Japan), no, of course, it won’t be enough. And of course, enough to eat (what you want) and dress. So we keep postponing. lol so I also pay a mortgage though the payment is small
                    1. Bolt cutter
                      Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 12: 27
                      +1
                      what you want
                      According to joint calculations with members of the forum, it costs 15 percent more in England. For clothes, the former, seasoned rag-woman, said that it is more expensive in Russia.
                      1. Mihail0221
                        Mihail0221 7 January 2023 12: 38
                        +1
                        For clothes, the former, seasoned rag-woman, said that it is more expensive in Russia.
                        probably branded. And the "brothers - Armenians" have a sweater of 1000 rubles. laughing And yes, jeans are about the same.
                  2. Mihail0221
                    Mihail0221 7 January 2023 12: 46
                    +1
                    3600 rubles "clean"
                    And enough belay This is 41 pounds, with comparable prices for everything except excisable goods.

                    Well, this is in a shift of 3600 net per month. So many jobs in Russia, where they pay less.
                    1. Bolt cutter
                      Bolt cutter 7 January 2023 13: 10
                      +2
                      per shift 3600 clean not per month
                      It is clear that in shift. In England £9.5 an hour is the minimum wage. On hand with a standard week - 1335 per month.
                      from the "brothers - Armenians"
                      Here, such prices for clothes are practiced by the Primark chain.
                  3. saygon66
                    saygon66 7 January 2023 23: 20
                    0
                    No matter how much you get - there is always enough!
                2. Alexander Salenko
                  Alexander Salenko 7 January 2023 14: 39
                  +3
                  In Crimea, half a dollar is considered normal, despite the fact that our prices are high, at the level of the capitals., And so a hard worker brings about 30 thousand a month
                  1. Mihail0221
                    Mihail0221 7 January 2023 14: 50
                    +1
                    In Crimea, half a dollar is considered normal, despite the fact that our prices are high, at the level of the capitals., And so a hard worker brings about 30 thousand a month

                    Here in the crisis year he stepped over 50 thousand. ferrous metallurgy worker. She grew up a little.
  3. Mihail0221
    Mihail0221 7 January 2023 11: 23
    +3
    The analyst also notes that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson makes some sense, since it helped the Russian command to focus on other areas.

    Absolutely right. There were military personnel for the most part, the elite paratroopers ... Having lost Kherson (for a while), we saved the army.
    With the loss of Kherson, Russia is not lost ...
    1. ABC-schutze
      ABC-schutze 7 January 2023 12: 02
      -1
      You're right...

      But the hat throwers - the "planners" of the NWO, should have thought about this even in its initial phase. Not for the TENTH MONTH...

      In the initial phase. When the Russian Armed Forces had brilliant successes, Gostomel was taken and held by the Airborne Forces. The Chechen special forces cleared the suburbs of Kyiv, and the "messengers" of the enemies of Russia, with their flock, IN SRAHA, carried their feet from Kyiv to Lemberg ...

      But, for some reason, LITERALLY IMMEDIATELY, the inhabitants of the Kremlin "nullified" everything achieved with memorable and mediocre "gestures of good will" ...

      Now, before achieving the main goal of the NWO and solving its main tasks, first Russia has to be saved ...
      1. Alexander Salenko
        Alexander Salenko 7 January 2023 14: 42
        +2
        It seems to me that until the last moment they wanted to decide, to agree, they say, we are terrible, but capable of negotiating.
  4. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 7 January 2023 11: 33
    +1
    Rocket strikes on power facilities forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to disperse crews with MANPADS throughout Ukraine.
  5. dump22
    dump22 7 January 2023 11: 41
    -1
    If your steps are praised by your opponent, isn't this a reason to wonder if you are doing everything right?
    1. ABC-schutze
      ABC-schutze 7 January 2023 14: 25
      +2
      No reason...

      Especially, taking into account the fact that the enemy himself, THESE "steps", on the way "to his victories", continuously practices ...

      Yugoslavia, Iraq, Serbia... Bridges, telecentres, power lines. Embassies even...

      The Russian "answer" on the energy of our opponent's fosterlings, came out abruptly? .. So it should be so. Is this not a reason for the enemy to rejoice? ..

      After all, a “real teacher,” as they say in the East, is always happy when the success of a student who takes an example from him begins to surpass his own achievements.

      True, in this case, a capable student came from "another school." But the Creator will help, he and your other examples, for the benefit of HIS rightful cause and for the "treatment" of the teacher himself...
      1. dump22
        dump22 8 January 2023 01: 38
        -1
        Especially, taking into account the fact that the enemy himself, THESE "steps", on the way "to their victories", are constantly practicing ... Yugoslavia, Iraq, Serbia ... Bridges, television centers, power lines. Embassies even...


        Exactly! You are absolutely right.
        What do I think about this?
        The Americans are already on their own experience and convinced of the futility of these steps - an attempt to seize control of the territory through the destruction of infrastructure.

        The bombings did not help them either in Iraq. not in Libya, not in Serbia, not in Afghanistan.
        Well, they conquered Iraq, so what? They still had to leave Iraq in disgrace. And yet they were not able to overthrow Milosevic with the help of powerful bombings in 1999 and still have not been able to draw Serbia into their zone of influence. They also failed to take control of Libya. The examples of their failures are numerous.

        Maybe now they are happy to watch our repetition of their bad experience and therefore "praise" us?
        1. ABC-schutze
          ABC-schutze 8 January 2023 20: 18
          0
          You don't have to "cheat"...

          Firstly, you are not talking about the "same", but about the exact opposite. Although "veiled" ...

          Secondly, Russia and its Armed Forces, in the course of the NWO, return THEIR territory illegally alienated during the illegal collapse of the USSR. And, PURPOSELY, CONSISTENTLY, turned by the US, NATO and other "Europeans" into a springboard for harming Russia's national security interests. Incl. - creating a DIRECT MILITARY THREAT to it ...

          Thirdly, Iraq, Libya, Yugoslavia (and now Serbia), Syria (which you did not mention ...), Afghanistan, which the United States and NATO launched missile and bomb strikes, you mentioned, have nothing to do with the territory of the United States and their European never had tobacco. And they were thousands of miles from the borders of the United States.

          Fourthly, the task of overthrowing the "objectionable" and "setting a dangerous example" to other countries the leaders of sovereign states, independent of Uncle Sam's instructions, was solved. And quite quickly... And for the long term... Why was there no need for a direct, especially permanent and full-scale, presence of the United States in these territories...

          And in Syria, the United States (and Turkey ...) ILLEGALLY OCCUPATE (and for more than one year ...) EXACTLY the "infrastructure" regions, ILLEGALLY EXPLOITING their infrastructure and ILLEGALLY exporting Syrian energy resources from them ...

          And Afghanistan, in the context of infrastructure, is not an "indicator" at all. There, for 100 years now, after the expulsion of the British, no one except the tribes (each, their own ...) controls ...

          Fifth, even if Uncle Sam and his European tobaccos "didn't work out" at all, this does not at all mean the "meaninglessness" of the means and methods used. Moreover, it does not mean that this will not ultimately bring success in solving problems by their geopolitical competitors at a different time, in a different place, and in relation to a different adversary, and with PRINCIPALLY different TARGET (that is, MOTIVATE ...) installations .. .

          Sixthly, Libya and Iraq, as "states", have disappeared altogether ... And for a long time ... There is a civil war going on (thousands of miles, I remind you, from the borders of the United States ...), there is no central authority, and there is no threat to national US interests (including regional ones) no longer come from these territories ...

          By the way, in Libya, by destroying Gaddafi, the United States destroyed precisely LONG-TERM INFRASTRUCTURE projects of large-scale hydrocarbon production and LONG-TERM COMPETITIVE energy supply to Europe along the most optimal route from North Africa, through Italy, developed by Russia and China. So, there at Uncle Sam, IMNNO AFTER THE BOMBING, - "all the way" ...

          And Russia was "removed" from China. And the European "allies" were driven into greater dependence on themselves ...
          1. dump22
            dump22 10 January 2023 14: 28
            0
            Syria (which you didn't mention...),


            Great, thanks for reminding me about Syria.
            This is yet another example of a complete US military failure.
            How many attacks did they strike on the infrastructure of Syria? How many cities were razed to the ground? And what is the result? Did they overthrow Assad? Have you raised uprisings against him, achieved an increase in the discontent of the population? Ruined, decomposed Assad's army?
            No.
            And what are their current successes in Syria?
            Very deplorable.
            They withdrew the main part of their troops from there a long time ago, this is still Trump in 2019.
            And now in Syria, the Americans are sitting almost without getting out at a couple of small military bases, not daring to stick their nose out of them (well, for example, they generally do not move further than 55 km from their base at al-Tanf!). There are literally several hundred of them throughout Syria.
            But there was a time - they controlled more than a third of the entire territory of the country. Yes, for some reason they screwed up.
  6. shinobi
    shinobi 7 January 2023 12: 14
    +2
    The battles on the front line are being fought with exactly the same number of troops as in the spring. Mobilized, these are occupying forces, to catch the DRG. A positional war began in science, for which the student of NATO of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (what a surprise!) Was not ready.
    1. Alexander Salenko
      Alexander Salenko 7 January 2023 14: 43
      +2
      There are videos in the cart of how mobilized artillerymen shoot from hyacinths, obviously not at the DRG
  7. TIR
    TIR 7 January 2023 12: 19
    +2
    With all the cynicism, the withdrawal of troops from Kherson made it possible to shorten the front. Yes, while the density of Ukrainian troops has increased, but the concentration density of our artillery has also increased. It was then that with the active consumption of our artillery ammunition and the shortage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this was justified. From a military point of view, of course. After all, if the density of manpower from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is increased by 2 times, and the density of our fire is increased by 2 times, then there will be much more casualties among the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Although from the point of view of the image it was not necessary to leave Kherson
  8. evgen1221
    evgen1221 7 January 2023 12: 47
    0
    What kind of ANALYST is this, if at first one thing and then the exact opposite vangues. This is no longer analytics, but a friend is called.
  9. iouris
    iouris 7 January 2023 13: 46
    -1
    Not "air" but unmanned air strikes are being carried out on the infrastructure. Aviation cannot work. It is necessary to prepare for the transfer of strikes to Poland, Romania and the entire "Baltic" (including Sweden and Finland). From there, an offensive will soon begin and there is no need to feel sorry for the "German proletariat". And the Bandera people are used to cover up special operations against infrastructure anywhere: even in Moscow, even in the Far East (although, how far is it, if China is there?)
  10. Fizik13
    Fizik13 7 January 2023 14: 45
    -1
    For the Americans, the question is not for us or against us, but to create a movement in the electoral pool. The result will be one - Russia is the enemy of America. They shit in our souls, sirut and will be angry for a long and tedious
  11. odometer
    odometer 7 January 2023 17: 29
    0
    To be honest, it doesn’t matter what this professor of sour cabbage soup and the doctor of puppet sciences are talking about ... There are plenty of their own political talkers to listen to foreign ones too ... But for miserable agitation and miserable Russian propaganda, this is a "breakthrough" smile