Military Review

Stanislav Tarasov: Who and what threatens Turkey today

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Stanislav Tarasov: Who and what threatens Turkey todayAnkara is going to ask NATO to deploy Patriot missiles in Turkey due to the exacerbation of tension on the Turkish-Syrian border. This information was published by the Hürriyet newspaper with reference to a high-ranking Turkish diplomatic source. According to him, "the plan includes the deployment of missile defense systems in Turkey." NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen quickly responded to this message. He said that NATO did not receive a request from Turkey to deploy missile systems on the border with Syria. At the same time, a certain clarification was made: "The alliance has plans to protect Turkey from possible threats."

Information "leaks" in the Turkish media, organized by "certain forces" and the reaction to them from the North Atlantic Alliance resemble virtual "games" with an address sense. It’s one thing when Turkey takes part in the US global missile defense system, which was decided at the NATO Lisbon Summit 19-20 in November 2010. At the same time, the project on the deployment of missile defense elements in Turkey is motivated as opposition to the “nuclear threat from Iran,” although Turkey had previously opposed the designation of any particular state as a “source of threat. Such a position was specifically stipulated as the main condition for consent to the deployment of missile defense elements. Now as a "threat" is called Syria. Then, as recently as the Turkish and many Western media actively discussed the issue of the likely invasion of the Turkish army into Syria, and not vice versa. The only country that warned Ankara that it was ready to deliver a military strike against NATO facilities in Turkey, but only if military intervention in Syria followed the territory of that country was Iran. Therefore, speaking of Syria, as a potential threat, Turkey is still referring to Iran. And this is when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to create a tripartite committee - Turkey-Russia-Iran - “whose goal will be to resolve the Syrian issue." Is it a coincidence?

The fact is that the visit of the Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov to Cairo, the results of his talks with the UN special envoy and the Arab League on Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, open a "corridor of opportunities" for a Syrian settlement. First, an agreement was reached with the League of Arab States to form a common cooperation forum, and to hold its first meeting at the level of foreign ministers in Moscow before the end of 2012. In this context, the report on the visit of Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi to Moscow at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin should be assessed. According to the representative of the office of Egyptian President Yasir Ali, Egypt is counting not only on restoring special relations with Russia in various fields, but also hopes for Moscow to exert the necessary influence to solve the problems of the Middle East region, especially in Syria.

Secondly, during the meeting between Lavrov and Brahimi, a common position was determined: to seek a political way out of the Syrian crisis on the basis of the Geneva accords. They are known to provide for a cease-fire in this country, a dialogue between official Damascus and opposition forces, the creation of a transitional government and presidential elections. Only in such a scenario can you keep the course of events under international law, to prevent the spread of political chaos in the region. We also note the fact that the signature of Turkey stands under the Geneva communique, and the fact that, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Moscow decided to support Ankara’s initiative to create a new negotiation format to resolve the crisis in Syria.

This is due to the fact that the so-called Islamic Quartet on the Syrian settlement, Egypt-Iran-Saudi Arabia-Qatar, previously created at the initiative of Cairo, did not work because of the refusal of Saudi Arabia to act together with Iran. Then, as the format Turkey-Russia-Iran has a certain prospect, if only because two countries - Russia and Turkey - are signatories of the Geneva document, and Iran, in principle, supports its main positions. If the combination proposed by Turkey is supported by the League of Arab countries as an intermediate stage of the Syrian settlement, then there is a chance to make a "diplomatic breakthrough" in this direction. Moreover, the implementation of the initiative of Turkey would significantly strengthen its diplomatic positions throughout the Middle East, because in this case it will get a real chance to contribute to the plan of action for a settlement in Syria, which is being prepared by the UN Special Representative and the Arab League Brahimi.

But at the same time, offering different negotiation formats for a Syrian settlement and probing the soil for the likely deployment of Patriot missiles on its territory are techniques for using "double standards" in the policy. The outcome of such diplomacy can be not a settlement of the Syrian crisis, but an arms race, and the entrance to another foreign policy impasse. Because, according to the Turkish newspaper Yeni Asya, “Turkey can overcome the deadlock in the Syrian crisis only if it reaches a“ balance of accords ”, both at the regional level and internationally. But exposing the neighboring Muslim countries as a source of threat, Ankara does not it is only losing political and diplomatic maneuverability at the regional level, but is also drifting more and more towards the object of international politics, the newspaper Usak gündem, which believes that if the world community t perceive Turkey "only through the filters of the Syrian crisis and military-political confrontation with neighboring countries, then it will inevitably be withdrawn from the" game. " This, in our opinion, is now the main source of political danger for Turkey. Exit this difficult situation with the help of NATO Patriot Turkey missiles are unlikely.
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8 comments
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  1. nokki
    nokki 9 November 2012 07: 21
    +2
    The Turks - with all their ambitions - are just puppets in the hands of the Americans. And those purposefully lead the Near and Middle East to chaos and internecine war.
    1. alexng
      alexng 9 November 2012 08: 19
      +8
      Now Turkey is threatened only by Turkey itself. This is such a geopolitical suicide.
      1. Kaa
        Kaa 9 November 2012 11: 01
        +2
        Quote: alexneg
        Now only Turkey itself threatens Turkey

        Absolutely correct statement. Turkey differs from most Muslim countries in a greater degree of "secularism". This is also due to the fact that its predecessor, the Great Porta, accumulated the achievements of the European, Middle Eastern, Caucasian states, with which it constantly fought, assimilated their gene pool. In the 20th century, after its collapse, Ataturk began to build a state with a strong touch of "Europeanness". After World War II, Turkey fell into the arms of NATO and is still striving to join the European Union, therefore, for the time being, the "dark side of Islam" - Wahhabism bypassed it. But only for the time being. There is a big headache in the form of the "Kurdish issue", which is being removed by the military clans. But the slightest failure in military affairs - for example, a protracted turmoil in Syria, the influence of the military and secular authorities on the people will be "nulled" and Turkey will have a chance to fuck both independent Kurdistan and the Sharia government, which will be supported by both the Saudis and the Catarals, i.e. risks falling into an amorphous state for many years. Given the growing desire of Turkey to become a unifying factor for the Turkic peoples, i.e. a new center of power, it can be assumed that it is precisely this option that the "unholy trinity" - the USA, the EU and the Arab monarchies - is pushing. If not right, I think Yarbay will correct it, he knows better.
        1. Норд
          Норд 9 November 2012 16: 26
          +3
          The maniacal desire of some Turkish politicians (let’s not stick our fingers at Erdogan) to take the place of regional godfather has already led to the fact that Turkey has seriously begun to annoy everyone around and beyond. But these are still flowers. Berries will begin when Egypt joins the Syrian-Iranian tandem. And something tells me - this day is just around the corner. Then the Ottomans will become truly sour. Syria already doesn’t forgive them for this - don’t go to your grandmother. Yes, and Israel recalls the clowning with drones.
  2. vvvvv
    vvvvv 9 November 2012 08: 28
    +1
    In all cases in BV, in North Africa and other similar places, there are many points to which you can pay attention. For example, that there is no problem to find thousands of mercenaries who are ready to kill people in other countries for money. In general, they are ready for anything for the money. Both in Libya and in Syria, no matter how we look somewhat biased, but I got the impression that there are more frostbites than those who adhere to some wise views on private and general things. It is here that we can reason and experience for justice, and there Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, etc., etc. And now they are all at war with each other, as can be clearly seen from the tribes of Libya ... Western civilization and in general a man of the European type is demographically disappearing and in Europe huge ethnic enclaves ... And if their native states are still powerful, then on the basis of Islamism it is possible unite all Muslims in Europe and make a situation there, as it is now in Libya or Syria. In Central Asia and the Caucasus, it is also not so "good" ... It is clear that the United States, Israel, Atlantists and all that have a place to be, but the Arab countries - Qatar, Saudis, Turkey, and now Egypt and By Muslim Brothers, and can be listed and enumerated. I am sure that each separately and all together dream of something like a world Caliphate and screw up the infidels ... So ... Who is there from the American establishment said that the Arab Spring has picked up a hidden abscess ?! I'm starting to think more about the war of civilizations ... I can't say that I am so against the weakening of any radical and Islamist states, some of which seemed to be considered officially secular, but all have their own shadow groups, affairs, etc.
    These are my chaotic sketches, but on the whole, I hope, my doubts about the unambiguous views on things are clear.
    1. hrych
      hrych 9 November 2012 11: 53
      +1
      The demographic disappearance of a European-type person is quite exaggerated, no matter how white there are more than a billion. If the birth rate due to the possibility of control has fallen, but mortality has decreased and life expectancy has increased due to the level of the medicine. But due to the introduction, again of European values, the Arab population of Egypt, for example, has multiplied, then in the near future it will boldly go to the Islamic gloomy Middle Ages, in which most of the population will perish not from mass killings, but from hunger and epidemics. Several years ago, due to a crop failure, GDP announced a maratorium on the sale of grain, and in particular in Egypt, the main consumer of our grain, bread prices rose, whether or not they coincided, but the favorable, forty-year-old regime of Mubarak fell. Perhaps because of the poor harvest Russia will again declare a maratorium and what will happen in eighty millionth Egypt, St. Joseph himself will not say.
  3. Vlad7461
    Vlad7461 9 November 2012 12: 35
    0
    I think that if Turkey goes in the same direction, then everyone will have it and Israel and the Kurds, in general, all and sundry.
    1. Yeraz
      Yeraz 9 November 2012 12: 52
      -7
      This Tarasov is already tired, the articles are the same and so outlined in different ways. Enrages already.