Military Review

Western analyst: the Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the Azov direction

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Western analyst: the Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the Azov direction

According to Peter Dickinson, a researcher at the American analytical center Atlantic Council, the Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the Azov direction.


They [the Armed Forces] need to maintain the same momentum as in September, when the Kharkiv region, and then, in November, Kherson returned under their control

- said a Western analyst.

As the analyst suggests, Kyiv is waiting for an opportunity to attack the enemy at the very moment when the ground is frozen, and the Ukrainian military will choose the southern direction - the coast of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov as one of such places for the offensive.

It is possible that active hostilities will be conducted in the Berdyansk region, or perhaps in the Melitopol region in order to gain time, as a result of which the Russian troops heading towards the Crimean peninsula will be deprived of the opportunity to receive replenishment

added the analyst.

Note that earlier the deputy director of the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, Melinda Hering, criticized the actions of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who, in her opinion, is leading his own country in the wrong direction. Also, the head of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers Denis Shmyhal, who, according to Hering, did not cope with the obligations assigned to him to effectively manage the government in such a difficult time for the country, got into the lens.

Former American Army Colonel Liam Collins, in an interview with Western reporters, also stated that the Ukrainian military needs to have time to carry out an attack before the snow melts, otherwise the use of dirt roads will become much more difficult, which happened at the beginning of the special operation.
Author:
Photos used:
https://www.mil.gov.ua/
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  1. fruc
    fruc 5 January 2023 10: 13
    +2
    Liam Collins ... said that the Ukrainian military needs to have time to carry out an attack before the snow melts

    Well, even if L. Collins so desired, we will prepare and wait for concentration.
    1. Luka Nord
      Luka Nord 5 January 2023 11: 19
      0
      Quote: frruc
      Well, even if L. Collins so desired, we will prepare and wait for concentration.

      Let them concentrate, we’ll cover them in a crowd right away .. Still, it’s better than looking for them later in caches .. Denazification is going well, few people are already ziguting and showing tattoos with Nazi symbols ..
    2. voice of reason
      voice of reason 5 January 2023 12: 05
      -1
      it broadcasts the situation that was in autumn 22. And now the situation has already changed and the enemy himself is waiting for our offensive.
  2. HAM
    HAM 5 January 2023 10: 13
    +4
    How good it is to "step on" in a cozy office....
    1. StarWarrior
      StarWarrior 5 January 2023 10: 37
      +3
      and retreat, regroup and make goodwill gestures too.
    2. Fisherman
      Fisherman 5 January 2023 12: 27
      0
      - You're under arrest!
      -Listen, Semyonov, do you have a pistol?
      -Then - detained!
      So here ... are you going to attack? Will there be enough armored vehicles of winter equipment for at least a brigade? Or did a regiment of incomplete equipment gather to arrange deep breakthroughs? As for the infantry, I have no doubt - they still have a lot of this crap, even enough machine guns, but in winter to conduct an offensive under a hail of bullets and shrapnel and cluster MLRS? How many hundreds of meters will pass?
  3. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 5 January 2023 10: 19
    +11
    I hope that our command drew conclusions from their Kharkov and Kherson defeats and the enemy will be met with bullets and shells from the heart.
    1. Luka Nord
      Luka Nord 5 January 2023 11: 29
      0
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      drew conclusions and the enemy will be met with bullets and shells from the heart.

      Better than carpet bombing .. To be sure!
  4. glock-17
    glock-17 5 January 2023 10: 24
    +4
    I hope the tactics of breaking through in small groups will no longer work and worthy fortifications have been prepared.
    1. Andy_nsk
      Andy_nsk 5 January 2023 10: 45
      0
      I hope the tactics of breaking through in small groups will no longer work and worthy fortifications have been prepared.

      There is a bare steppe, you can’t really hide and you won’t seep in, and without having enough equipment, aviation and air defense, somehow I can’t imagine how they are going to attack. I hope ours will meet them with a barrage of fire!
      1. VSZMK
        VSZMK 5 January 2023 11: 42
        +6
        Quote from Andy_nsk
        I hope the tactics of breaking through in small groups will no longer work and worthy fortifications have been prepared.

        There is a bare steppe, you can’t really hide and you won’t seep in, and without having enough equipment, aviation and air defense, somehow I can’t imagine how they are going to attack. I hope ours will meet them with a barrage of fire!

        They also spoke for Kherson.
        1. Luka Nord
          Luka Nord 5 January 2023 12: 13
          +2
          Quote: VSZMK
          They also spoke for Kherson.

          Well, stop spreading rot about Kherson already .. They departed in an organized manner for tactical reasons.
          To arrange Stalingrad, there was no point ...
          The tactic was chosen for military, economic, political and moral depletion of the enemy .. The regime will not last long, the losses are large (hidden), and the infrastructure is slowly being destroyed. The population is scattered in different directions. The West is tearing up why Russia does not use tactical nuclear weapons, etc. We are waiting !
          1. Lawrence_OnYouNo
            Lawrence_OnYouNo 11 January 2023 15: 08
            -1
            Quote from Luka Nord
            The regime will not last long

            I've been hearing this since 2014....
            like all the other theses...
  5. Pivot
    Pivot 5 January 2023 10: 24
    +2
    Only God knows what will happen and how long it will last. As long as there is faith that we will win, we will fight.
    1. StarWarrior
      StarWarrior 5 January 2023 10: 35
      +5
      You can't win by faith alone.
      To win the war, it is necessary that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief had the WILL to win, and the General Staff of the Russian Federation had BRAIN, commanders at all levels up to and including the platoon.
      1. your vsr 66-67
        your vsr 66-67 6 January 2023 14: 26
        +2
        Quote from StarWarrior
        You can't win by faith alone.
        To win the war, it is necessary that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief had the WILL to win, and the General Staff of the Russian Federation had BRAIN, commanders at all levels up to and including the platoon.

        As I personally think, if our General Staff had brains, and they reported to Putin about the real balance of forces and capabilities before the start, he would not have started this adventure called his! And he listened to the "victorious" arguments of our Defense Ministry and General Staff, and that's the result!
        1. Lawrence_OnYouNo
          Lawrence_OnYouNo 11 January 2023 15: 10
          -1
          Quote: your vsr 66-67
          And he listened to the "victorious" arguments of our Defense Ministry and General Staff, and that's the result!

          tell me honestly - how did you assess the prospects of Ukraine in the war with Russia yes 24.02.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX?
  6. opuonmed
    opuonmed 5 January 2023 10: 28
    0
    Well, for such a quantity, can you deliver a massive blow, even use tactical weapons or not?
  7. StarWarrior
    StarWarrior 5 January 2023 10: 33
    +3
    It is beneficial for the Russian Federation that the Armed Forces of Ukraine throw their forces into these offensives that are suicidal for them as much as possible.
    It is easier to smash an enemy who has come out of hiding than an enemy who has dug in in Avdeevka and Artemovsk.
    Our intelligence needs to exaggerate in every possible way the weakness of our positions in the area of ​​Melitopol, Ugledar and Kremennaya in order to provoke the enemy to attack there.
    At the same time, the concentration of enemy forces should be smashed on the approaches to the front - in Zaporozhye, Yekaterinoslav, Kharkov.
    Let the enemy draw all his reserves from Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev - then in the summer it will be possible to take them with bare hands.
  8. cmax
    cmax 5 January 2023 10: 52
    +3
    God only knows what awaits us in 2023. But Russia will not survive another defeat from the Krajina. And in general, raising the issue of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the 12th month of the war shows the depth of the problems in the country and the leadership. Let's see, there are few options. Either we have them or they are in The Hague. And multi-hectare haciendas will not help, as well as many millions of salaries in rubles. I immediately remember ..... smart faces are not yet a sign of intelligence!
    1. StarWarrior
      StarWarrior 5 January 2023 11: 01
      +2
      All this because Putin is not able to mobilize Russia in any way - neither ideologically, nor economically, nor disciplinary.
      He fears more for his rating than for the fate of the country.
      He wants to be white and fluffy for everyone at once - so that the people do not smell the war, so that the elite and oligarchs of the Russian Federation do not grumble because of temporary inconvenience with the West now closed to them, so as not to aggravate relations with Western and Ukrainian partners.
      Hence - grain deals, ammonia pipelines, the surrender of Kherson, gestures of goodwill.
      Sitting on two chairs until the very end.
      But Stalin was not afraid for his rating and therefore won.
      1. The comment was deleted.
        1. Petr_Koldunov
          Petr_Koldunov 6 January 2023 19: 35
          +2
          Interesting... moderators! I was given warnings for thoughts that did not reach in their rigidity even a tenth of this maxim! And then it hangs itself - and nothing!
      2. AlexWar
        AlexWar 7 January 2023 03: 39
        +1
        Russia did not prepare for war. Mobilize where the question is and how will you dress them? You felt that many people were taken away, I personally didn’t feel it at all.
        If you know, after covid, Russia, on the contrary, reduced spending on the army.
        They will always have time to mobilize, when necessary, there are conscripts (airborne special forces). According to conscripts, our army has not become smaller.
        The war in Syria went on for many years, in Chechnya it went on for 10 years. So it will be here for 10 years.
        Putin also said that they will be pecking at the grain.
        Ukraine is throwing its best reserves into battle, Russia has not even used its reserves yet.
        You must be listening to Ukrainian propaganda. All of us on the ground there are no big losses.
        Today they posted on political Russia the composition of the bombs in the cars. Volumetric detonating.
        In the kurgan, 3500 people are looking for the Kurganmashzavod alone. You imagine the volume of their production.
        Most of the factories fulfilled the plan, and it was twice as high as the total volumes.
  9. Egeny
    Egeny 5 January 2023 11: 02
    0
    the Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the direction of Azov

    And Kulebyaka hopes to receive Western equipment only by the end of the year. Will Scholz arrive earlier in a tank or Mikron in his old armored car? And Sunak fell silent for some reason, but how he sang ...)
  10. Simon
    Simon 5 January 2023 11: 02
    0
    The Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the direction of Azov.

    My opinion is that this will be the last offensive of the Ukrainians, after which they are unlikely to recover.
  11. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 5 January 2023 11: 27
    +2
    The conclusion is made on the basis of the transfer of Russian troops.
    Many were transferred to Berdyansk and to the north of Crimea. They fear a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction.
    1. Realist58
      Realist58 6 January 2023 15: 21
      +1
      It is understandable, because absolutely all the "experts" predict the offensive there. And to shit Crimea, it's very bad for the ratings.
  12. aleks700
    aleks700 5 January 2023 13: 29
    -1
    Well go ahead. I hope they are buried there. And then freely to Poland. Where will its borders be by then?
  13. Fizik13
    Fizik13 5 January 2023 14: 47
    -1
    Western analyst: the Ukrainian army will concentrate all its forces this winter for a large counteroffensive in the Azov direction

    They also attacked Debaltseve in the winter of 2015 in a crowd....
    They almost hit the cauldron, left a bunch of their own on the battlefield, barely carried their legs.
  14. Veter5757
    Veter5757 6 January 2023 00: 10
    +1
    In the Sea of ​​\u2b\uXNUMXbAzov, winter is frost for XNUMX weeks on Epiphany, then a thaw, then again the frost is weaker for a week, and then the end of winter and March slush. When to come? According to the British weather calendar?
  15. DeadPahom
    DeadPahom 6 January 2023 11: 30
    0
    At the moment, active operations are underway between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and PMCs. Yes, the RF Armed Forces provide support, but the fact remains that the regular army of Ukraine is powerfully snatching from a private military company. What general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are we talking about?
  16. tralmaster
    tralmaster 6 January 2023 11: 39
    +1
    For now, they have to withdraw troops to the Donetsk region. If they slightly weaken the front line in other directions, a white and fluffy animal will come to them.
  17. DeadPahom
    DeadPahom 6 January 2023 12: 26
    0
    Quote: cmax
    But Russia will not survive another defeat from the Krajina.

    A man writes from a warm sofa under New Year's salads and alcohol. When and where was Russia defeated, sick?
  18. Andrey A
    Andrey A 6 January 2023 12: 33
    +2
    On the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to go on the offensive in March 2023. The thing is that the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the offensive by the spring will be finally used up ... By the end of last summer, Ukraine put up to 1 million people into service, having mobilized, thus. all of its trained reserve. This is approximately a third of the human reserves of Ukraine ... If we bear in mind that these are 42 ages, then at least 14 ages have been put into operation ... In reality, much more, because a large part of the "zarobitchans" are abroad (not counting those who managed to escape from the "square") ... Ie. real human reserves of Ukraine are approx. - 2 million people. But, throughout the autumn and the beginning of winter, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were actively fighting and suffered losses, which means that mobilization did not stop ... Thus. already mobilized - ok. 1,3 - 1,4 million people or two thirds of the real mob. resource or 28 ages ... Total: people are already being called for approx. 50 years (18 +28) .... As a result, the morale of the mobilized has dipped significantly ... The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been forced to intimidate and terrorize their fighters so that they do not run away and no one hides this. If earlier there were many veterans of military operations in the Donbass among those who fought, and they had a motivation to fight, because many were involved in all sorts of bad deeds in the occupied territories: from violence and robbery to shelling of civilian objects, in civilian life they constituted a kind of community , intimidating pro-Russian activists and received money for this. These were peculiar, Ukrainian units of the SS ... Ordinary mobilized people do not have such motivation, among the older ages sympathy for the USSR and Russia prevails ... They will not die for the United States and the current Ukrainian government. In the spring (since losses will grow) the situation will only get worse: you will have to call up almost 60-year-olds, and those who do not even have the physical ability to really participate in hostilities (full soldier equipment weighs about 20 kg (armor, weapons, ammunition and pr), the old men simply won’t pull it all, and they don’t have the desire to lie down for the “square” with their bones ... Conclusion: they will begin to surrender ... In any case, there is no question of an offensive with such and such a contingent. .. There will be no one to attack: the positions would somehow be held and that’s good. Such is the logic ....
    1. Petr_Koldunov
      Petr_Koldunov 6 January 2023 19: 41
      0
      Everything is logical ... but do not forget that mercenaries from NATO countries are going there in huge numbers - having combat experience in NATO units, well-trained specialists: British, Poles, French, Americans ... That is, you should always keep in mind one or two constantly replenished teams of professionals, well-armed specialists, for whom war is a way of life.
    2. AlexWar
      AlexWar 7 January 2023 04: 03
      +1
      After 45, most men are already chronically ill. Here are young people from 30-40, this is the main mob reserve
      Their reserves are leaking and they want to throw as many troops into battle as possible in order to do something before the end of Biden's term.
      Ukraine throws reserve after reserve into battle. But for a long time this will not be enough for them. Plus, the special forces of all countries of the world help them
      This year will be decisive, because Russia is also running out of weapons
      The plus is that we are now getting the latest weapons and many factories will rise even from their knees.
      If our defense industry increases the production of the same C1 shells, beeches, su-34s, missiles and homeless people, Ukrainians can only dream for now.
      Zelensky is counting on the power of NATO and that they will not be abandoned. He can't say we will lose. They will be given weapons on the condition that they attack
  19. Realist58
    Realist58 6 January 2023 15: 17
    0
    It’s interesting, but if the saloreich hits Lipetsk “suddenly”, does the cunning Jewish boy Vova use tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of a horse-drawn erephia?
  20. AlexWar
    AlexWar 7 January 2023 02: 33
    0

    These bombs could have been dropped on bridges
    Until they are sent armored personnel carriers to attack, they will not, there is nothing.
    Today they showed a photo of the composition of the whole with bombs. Volumetric detonating, such as sunbursts
    To date, all Ukronazi attacks have been repulsed.
    All trains suitable for air strikes are also hit by missiles
    Well, these Bradleys will be thrown to them, and they know how to manage and repair them?
    Russia has volumetrically detonating bombs from 500 to 7 tons The father of all bombs
    https://militaryarms.ru/boepripasy/bomby/vakuumnye/
  21. Tank destroyerSU-100
    Tank destroyerSU-100 9 January 2023 17: 59
    0
    Quote from Luka Nord
    Quote: frruc
    Well, even if L. Collins so desired, we will prepare and wait for concentration.

    Let them concentrate, we’ll cover them in a crowd right away .. Still, it’s better than looking for them later in caches .. Denazification is going well, few people are already ziguting and showing tattoos with Nazi symbols ..

    Yeah, did they cover a lot near Kharkov?
  22. Tank destroyerSU-100
    Tank destroyerSU-100 9 January 2023 18: 01
    +1
    Quote from Alexwar

    These bombs could have been dropped on bridges
    Until they are sent armored personnel carriers to attack, they will not, there is nothing.
    Today they showed a photo of the composition of the whole with bombs. Volumetric detonating, such as sunbursts
    To date, all Ukronazi attacks have been repulsed.
    All trains suitable for air strikes are also hit by missiles
    Well, these Bradleys will be thrown to them, and they know how to manage and repair them?
    Russia has volumetrically detonating bombs from 500 to 7 tons The father of all bombs
    https://militaryarms.ru/boepripasy/bomby/vakuumnye/

    And how will we deliver to the target if the remnants of the Ukrovermakht air defense have "grounded" our aircraft tightly?
  23. Tank destroyerSU-100
    Tank destroyerSU-100 9 January 2023 18: 08
    0
    I propose to wave less checkers in the comments, so that later you don’t look for excuses like after the “regrouping” near Kharkov and Kherson. The armament is coming out to the Wehrmacht. Tens of thousands of personnel are being trained. And it is necessary to prepare for the fiercest battles, so as not to squeal later, they say, how it was allowed that the Wehrmacht's coming out in a matter of days occupied the territories for which they fought for many months.
    Especially when you consider that the communications of the Wehrmacht's coming out are inviolable and the NATO equipment comes in unhindered.