Turkish analyst predicted the growth of Ankara's influence in world politics in 2023

In 2023, Turkey will play an even more active role in world politics than in 2022, but the country will also face certain challenges. The main directions of Ankara's foreign policy in 2023 were analyzed by SETA Director of Security Studies Professor Murat Yesiltas.

According to the analyst, Turkey is pursuing a strategy to achieve autonomy and diversify its geopolitical advantages. This was quite clearly manifested in the issue of the conflict in Ukraine, in which Turkey did not take one of the sides, but preferred to balance between the West and Russia. Since the conflict in Ukraine will continue in 2023, Turkey will retain this vector of foreign policy. It is possible that Ankara will once again take the lead in new negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Separately, Professor Yesiltas drew attention to the new opportunities that open up for the Turkish military industry in 2023. Thus, 2022 has led to a significant reduction in Russia's ability to export defense products to the markets of developing countries. In 2023, this trend will continue, allowing Turkey to fill the vacuum created by Russia in the markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Yesiltas also draws attention to Turkey's policy in the Middle East. He predicts Turkey's desire to complete the current counter-terrorist operation in northern Iraq, but the continuation of the operation in northern Syria, as the threat from the Kurdish forces operating in the region remains.

Relations with the United States in 2023 will not be easy. But the most important task for Turkey is to achieve the export of military goods it needs. The risk of an aggravation of Turkish-American relations remains high due to Ankara's counter-terrorist operation in northern Syria. After all, the Turkish army is fighting with the old protégés of the Americans - the Kurds.

In the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, the likelihood of an escalation of conflict with Greece is high. After all, Greece claims the maritime zone, as it is interested in exploration of hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern part of the Mediterranean region. The American leadership does not like the tension in relations between Turkey and Greece, since both countries are members of NATO.

Yesiltash also announces the continuation of Turkish support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. At the same time, Ankara will undertake peacekeeping efforts, striving to prevent a conflict between Baku and Yerevan. The analyst calls the coming to power in Israel of a right-wing radical government a significant risk factor for Turkey, which could lead to an escalation in East Jerusalem and Gaza.

In general, the growth of Turkey's influence in world politics in 2023 will continue, despite numerous risks, the Turkish analyst concludes.

Comments

[Fizik13]

Another world hegemon has emerged.

[Shurik70]

Anyone who conducts an independent policy begins to influence politics.
Since Turkey does not follow all orders from the US, it will naturally influence policy.
Turkey is not our friend, but for good and mutually beneficial relations with Russia it is not necessary to be a friend. It is enough to be adequate and independent.

[Luka Nord]

Quote: Shurik70

Anyone who conducts an independent policy begins to influence politics.
Since Turkey does not follow all orders from the US, it will naturally influence policy.
Turkey is not our friend, but for good and mutually beneficial relations with Russia it is not necessary to be a friend. It is enough to be adequate and independent.

Well, Alexander wrote everything correctly ..
That's just Russia, gives Erdogan a club in the direction of the EU (gas hub, etc.) Turkey seems to be withdrawing its troops from Syria ..
Syria is our sphere of influence, especially on Israel, etc.
We are quietly "booming" with Iran. This leverage is very powerful for all world politics, but this is a last resort .. We keep it in reserve

[Shurik70]

Quote from Luka Nord

Syria is our sphere of influence, especially on Israel

Here I do not agree.
Israel is also a player, not someone's piece. As long as a significant part of Israel's budget will be sponsored by the US, it will try not to act strongly against US interests, but still primarily for its own interests.
Syria is also not purely Russian. Turkey, Iran, Israel are close by.
The US is openly stealing oil. There are many interests there.
And the "baton for the EU" is more like a lifeline for the EU economy, not a club.

[NNikolaich]

Yeah, Erdogan walks wide, too wide, no matter how the pants are torn))

[Luka Nord]

Quote: NNikolaich

Yeah, Erdogan walks wide, too wide, no matter how the pants are torn))

Well, if anything, we’ll cut the trousers for the Turks .. They remember the Russians, Byzantium and our Constantinople Let them use it for now

[Romanovski]

The West is preparing a "bench" for Russia, where, apart from Turkey, Poland and Germany are sitting and waiting in the wings ...

[Mavrikiy]

Turkish analyst predicts growth of Ankara's influence in world politics in 2023

And tell me, who will predict the influence of Ankara, if not a Turkish analyst? He reminded me of a joke about "the elusive Joe"

[orionvitt]

Quote: Mavrikiy

And tell me, who will predict the influence of Ankara, if not a Turkish analyst?

This is correct, with one caveat. It is not Turkey that is gaining influence, but Erdogan is very daring. Climbs even where he generally does not need to intermeddle. Turkey itself has problems through the roof, but here we clearly see in practice the postulate about the "influence of the individual in history." The burden must be chosen according to one's strength, no matter how the Turks overstrain themselves, taking on too much, because of the ambitions of their leader. It’s good, of course, to fish in troubled waters, as Turkey is now doing, taking advantage of the moment. But a hefty shark can also bite, which will drag away both the fisherman and the fishing rod.

[Kuziming]

This country has successfully developed in recent years in ideology, culture, high-tech, military affairs, diplomacy and politics. In fact, this is a functional revival of Byzantium. We expect further growth of Turkey's influence on world affairs.

[Jsem_CZEKO68]

Na to nepotřebuji být analitik, abych dokázal předpovědět větší vliv Turecka, když tam bude křižovatka Ruského plynu který všude chybí..

[Jsem_CZEKO68]

I don't need to be an analyst to predict Turkey's greater influence when there is a crossroads for Russian gas, which is in short supply everywhere..