The Wall Street Journal writes about the "determining factors" in the Ukrainian conflict this winter

Many experts have already expressed their opinion on the vectors of development of the Ukrainian conflict in winter. Some of them are confident that severe cold will suspend active hostilities until the spring of 2023. Others, on the contrary, argue that the parties will launch major offensive operations as soon as the ground "freezes".

Analysts from the American edition of the Wall Street Journal also expressed their vision of the situation. According to the authors of the article, four factors will play a decisive role in the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation this winter.

First, it is weather conditions. Experts also believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive with the advent of frost, when the slush disappears. It is worth noting that, for some reason, the Americans do not talk about the likelihood of an offensive by the RF Armed Forces.

The Americans call the Zaporozhye Front and the Svatovo-Kremennaya line the main directions of the likely strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, analysts "prophesy" serious difficulties for ordinary Ukrainians due to energy problems.

The second factor that can seriously affect the course of the conflict in the material is the city of Bakhmut (Artemovsk). Win or lose
any of the parties in this direction, according to experts, will have a huge psychological effect.

Thirdly, according to the Wall Street Journal, much will depend on the decision of the new Congress on further support for Ukraine. The decrease in the volume of assistance, according to experts, will definitely play into the hands of Russia, which is allegedly planning a new offensive from the side of Belarus.

Finally, the Americans name the fourth factor the likelihood of peace talks. However, experts call this scenario the most difficult to implement. At least in the near future.

Comments

[kor1vet1974]

The Wall Street Journal writes about the "determining factors" in the Ukrainian conflict this winter

"Office, writes." (c)

[dmi.pris1]

No. "Paper will endure everything." And there is no responsibility and the fee is dripping. This is closer to the topic

[rocket757]

Many experts have already expressed their opinion on the vectors of development of the Ukrainian conflict in winter. Some of them are confident that severe cold will suspend active hostilities until the spring of 2023. Others, on the contrary, argue that the parties will launch major offensive operations as soon as the ground "freezes".

And when was it that the "general frost" interfered with the Russian army ???
By the way, we want to, we don’t want to, we admit it, but the dryers, in this respect, are the same as us ... it is unlikely that winter weather conditions will interfere with them, here the reasons are different ... completely different!

[oleg-nekrasov-19]

I think the question is not in the cold anymore, but how many reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be thrown into Artemovsk and on its flanks to prevent operational encirclement, and also whether we will let them calmly "winter" on the Kremennaya-Svatovo contact line.

[dmi.pris1]

The thing is that the freelancers try on themselves. Yes, in difficult weather conditions they would not start to become more active. And then yes. It all depends on how many reserves, ammunition, equipment arrive. both sides

[rocket757]

Availability of reserves, and what?
To catch "cannon fodder" and throw it on the front line, for disposal ... this can also be done, but they also need to be armed, and a lot of reinforcements should be given. How are they doing in this regard?
Without real firepower, without ammunition, the infantry does not fight much ... even a lot of infantry will be disposed of when the attackers have everything in abundance.
Against the POWER, only the power can stand...
About the strength of the spirit and so on ... not everything is so simple at this point in time.

[oleg-nekrasov-19]

So they catch "cannon fodder" to plug holes, while three brigades are being prepared in Western Ukraine (two mechanized and one assault). A terrorist defense was thrown at Svatovo-Kremennaya, more or less ready-made military units were transformed into consolidated BTG and RTG and thrown at Chasov Yar, Kramakha and Slavyansk, followed by rotation to Artemovsk. The 25th brigade now only remained near Kremennaya and parts of the National Guard near Svatovo, including the terrorist defense.

[rocket757]

The next question is... we are saturating the front line with personnel and reinforcements, this is a fact. How will the Vushniks be able to use the old tactics, for example, when it is designed to conduct combat operations against individual, not large military units, that is, against "partisans", in fact ???
That is, should we expect their curators to come up with something else, to return to the type of warfare in the classic version?
Let's see ... although, the structure of the Armed Forces that they use now, for the classic version, is adapted ... but in no way is it adapted for that.

[voice of reason]

determining factors in this conflict:
1.combat capability, organizational discipline and technical equipment, as well as the equipment of directly combatant units with ammunition.
2. availability of logistics to replenish the loss of material base, equipment and personnel, as well as the possibility of forming new units.
3. the availability of material and technical resources to replenish the warring units in the military-industrial complex of the country as a whole
weather, relief and other factors are not determining. They fight in the far north and in the deserts. and in the mountains and in the oceans and in the forests. The rest is not important. It would be someone and what to fight.

[fa2998]

What severe cold is the article talking about? In our area, winter is minus 5 - plus 5. 99% of this weather is worth it. Mud is impassable, often icy. Snow does not hold, it falls and melts. If a real cold winter with heavy snows, the memory holds for a long time. Now they are remembering the winter of 1986.

[rotmistr60]

For some reason, the Americans do not talk about the likelihood of an offensive by the RF Armed Forces.

Probably unpleasantly says what worries you the most. Therefore, they console themselves with the thought of an "imminent victory" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, realizing that this will not happen. For them, the main thing is that it dragged on for a long time and preferably with heavy losses for the Russian side.

[iouris]

Abisnite, why "Ukrainian conflict" and not "world war"?

[Raven 95]

So Mr. Ze is still our man ....
No negotiations there!
Only the capture of Kyiv and unconditional surrender!

[Sasha Koblov]

THE DETERMINING FACTOR is in the Kremlin!

[zenion]

Ukrainians are capable of much, they can even return across the Danube. They have done this many times already. Stalin believed them and decided - maybe they will come to their senses. They cut off a section of Russia. Let them show themselves as masters. Did not help! Whoever they formed ties with, they betrayed them all. Hitler did not even believe in them by 5%. He said - he studied and I know the policy of these bandits, they will kill my mother and will not bow to my father. You can trust them when they are shackled and in ticks.