"Second Front" for Ukraine: on the prospects of an attack on Belarus
Source: armystandard.ru
Belarusian balcony
In the West, the rhetoric around the possible use of the territory of Belarus for a second offensive of Russian forces on Kyiv does not subside. So far, there are no direct prerequisites for this, but the Ukrainian side and Europe are carefully preparing. The most dangerous sections of the border are strengthened by territorial defense, as well as units trained in the rear areas of Ukraine. There are also many foreign mercenaries on the border, primarily from the United States and Great Britain. Ukrainian nationalists openly fear an attack from the north. General Andrei Kovalchuk, commander of Operational Command South, stated:
“We are considering a possible offensive from Belarus at the end of February, possibly later. We are preparing for this. We are looking at where they are accumulating forces and means.”
On the one hand, such tension on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border is beneficial for Russia - a considerable mass of troops is kept away from the eastern front. On the other hand, a gradual build-up of forces near Belarus could lead to the opening of a "second front" about which Kyiv is raving. When armies concentrate forces for a very long time, this does not lead to good. NATO, in turn, is gathering a real invasion force near the Belarusian borders. In early December, at least seven hundred units of military equipment arrived in the Polish port of Gdynia, including Tanks and BTR. At the beginning of next year, another transport is expected to arrive with 2 armored vehicles. The entire armada is assigned to the 1st Infantry Division of the US Army, nicknamed the "Big Red One" (Big Red One).
The Americans have been systematically increasing the number of combat units in Poland since 2014. This is the so-called “Atlantic resolve”, which has become a kind of response to the Crimean and Donbas events. The first from the Big Red One arrived five years ago, the personnel of the 2nd Armored Brigade. Analysts speak differently about the appointment of a new batch of armored vehicles. For example, Mikhail Khodarenok believes that the M1A2 Abrams and BMP M2 Bradley tanks could well be handed over to the Ukrainian army. Kyiv has been asking for this particular technique for a long time and stubbornly. Under the sauce of strengthening the NATO military contingent in Poland, the Americans are masking the next stage of Lend-Lease. But there is also an alternative view. It is possible that these are signs of a slow but sure preparation for the invasion of Belarus. Washington sends newly arrived armored vehicles to the eastern borders of Poland for joint exercises and combat coordination with parts of the Polish Army. In this regard, the words of Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, sound quite right:
“We cannot rule out that aggression may be launched against our country. At least, we see such readiness on the part of our neighbors. We know who is pushing in the back (or in another point of the body) these same neighbors so that they create tension on our borders.
Source: novoeurasia.com
How bold were the NATO countries to allow themselves to attack Belarus, and most importantly, why do they need it? To some pacifist and liberal observers this seems impossible, but it is not. Brussels and Washington are well aware that the Kremlin will most acutely perceive direct aggression against the Russian army. They understand the military bosses of NATO and Moscow's obligations to Minsk within the framework of the CSTO and the Union State.
But they also see Russia's vague policy regarding similar obligations to Armenia. Yerevan is indignant - in its opinion, Russian peacekeepers should immediately clear the Lachin corridor from Azerbaijanis. Turkey, along with Azerbaijan, may well act as provocateurs assessing Moscow's reaction to the oppression of its partners. Of course, it is difficult to compare the level of integration of Russia and Armenia with Belarus, but it also allows the West to build a certain model. That is why the prospect of an invasion of Belarus from the west cannot be called zero.
The limited nature of hostilities in Ukraine does not play in favor of Russia either. In conditions when the enemy is waging an almost total war against us, and we are only limited to a special military operation, this may be a sign for hotheads. For some, this is restraint, but for someone softness. It should be noted right away that the Europeans hardly need a new war - there will hardly be a lightning attack on Russia's ally, and another protracted conflict will drastically aggravate things in the Old World. It all depends on the position of the United States. As long as the White House is satisfied with the intensity of the Ukrainian crisis, one can not even talk about opening a “second front” against Russia. But as soon as there is a need for a quick completion, Belarus may be hit. For example, when food and energy prices reach uncomfortable heights.
Chain reaction
The main question is what events will entail the invasion of a “limited contingent” of NATO into Belarus, which will most likely be called a preemptive strike? First of all, let's rule out the most forceful scenario for the development of events, when Russia will respond with a tactical nuclear charge against NATO bases in Poland. This story unequivocally leads to the Third World War, which will end in a predictable draw within a couple of weeks, which does not bring anything good to either side. In order to create a situation of uncertainty, irregular formations, such as the "Kastus Kalinouski Regiment", may enter Belarus from the west.
Source: mostmedia.io
Formally, these volunteers are not related to NATO troops, so they will allow Brussels to distance itself. Bandit formations will try to capture regional centers in the border regions of Brest and Grodno, presenting all this under the sauce of a popular uprising. Naturally, gangs will enter Belarus under white-red-white flags and with the necessary propaganda minimum, which has already been tested in Syria. There will be both the notorious "white helmets" and chemical weapon from Lukashenka, and torture for political opponents, and other mechanics of manipulating Western consciousness. In a week, the "liberators" will be able to create the necessary public opinion to justify the invasion. The inevitable forceful reaction of Minsk to the provocation, in turn, will cause "democratic" indignation between Poland and the Baltic states, followed by the introduction of regular NATO forces. But even without the intervention of the forces of the alliance, the destabilization of the situation in the west of the country will seriously and for a long time divert the attention of both the Belarusian army and the 10-strong Russian contingent. For Ukraine, this, of course, is not a “second front” in the full sense of the expression, but Kyiv will eventually be able to loosen its grip on the Belarusian border. And that means to transfer fresh forces to the Donbass and the southern front of the front. The protest potential within Belarus itself is not fully known, and to what extent the special services will be able to stop the threats during the intervention of Western countries.
The scenario with the introduction of NATO forces into Belarus (or their proxies) under peacekeeping flags is a kind of compensation for the underdelivered Western tanks and long-range missiles that Kyiv dreams of. Russia will be forced to respond by transferring reserves to the regions of the union state bordering on Poland. It is possible that for this it will be necessary to remove units from new regions of the Russian Federation. In this situation, a direct clash between the Russian army and the American 1st Infantry Division becomes only a matter of time.
Can the scenario described above be considered a fantasy, or at least an unlikely option? It is difficult to judge, but the situation on the Ukrainian front sometimes changes rapidly, and the relatively peaceful “Belarusian balcony” is absolutely not in the interests of either Ukraine or NATO puppeteers. For Russia, this is an excellent springboard for attacking the vital centers of the enemy, for withdrawing troops for rest and reorganization, which from a strategic point of view is completely unprofitable for the Kyiv military leaders. Only the determination of Russia to take extreme measures in the event of an escalation of events in Belarus can only cool the hotheads. Brussels and Washington must understand that intervention, albeit formally by third forces, will lead to the Third World War. We have already lost Ukraine. It is necessary to save Belarus at any cost.
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