Military Review

It's too early to worry about the ruble

28
It's too early to worry about the ruble



So is it the right course?


Back in November, the authors plucked up the courage to predict that by the New Year, either the euro or the dollar would exceed 70 rubles (What can we expect from the New Year's ruble?). At that time, the mark of 73 rubles was called the upper exchange rate bar. It is possible that now it will even have to jump over.

The authors do not find anything good in the fall of the ruble, and they never find it, even if there are serious problems with filling the treasury and executing the budget. These problems can and should be solved in other ways, rather than exchange rate games at the expense of the population.

It is already crushed by rising prices, many times higher than the official inflation figures. However, at the moment there is nothing wrong with the weakening of the ruble. At least for those who do not plan to make solid import purchases and large trips abroad.

And such people are in the majority in the country, and we, as you know, have democracy, not Western liberal, but precisely in favor of the majority. Whether the liberals are afraid of the weakening of the national currency can be judged by their speeches in defense of the high rates of the euro and the dollar.

Or, according to current maxims, for example, from the forgotten Mikhail Zadornov, who, having left power, has been driving banks for several years now - at first, it seems, VTB 24, now Otkritie, which almost fell victim to bankruptcy and reorganization.

Word to the banker


So, Mikhail Mikhailovich believes that

“in a situation that we consider basic for ourselves, that is, when there is no global crisis, ... the ruble exchange rate will weaken within reasonable limits, to about 75 rubles. for the dollar and the euro, depending on the strengthening of a particular currency. Why? That same trade surplus will halve and return to pre-2022 levels.”


An authoritative professional has no doubt that

"this will inevitably affect the ruble, since no one - neither the Central Bank nor the government - will artificially move it."

It would be interesting to know - Zadornov has some kind of insider in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers, what is so sure?

And where, then, was he in March 2022, when everyone was also waiting "natural weakening of the ruble". Double, or even triple at the exchange rate. And actually, at some point, they waited for 200 rubles at the exchange rate, and then they got a reverse move, up to the marks of almost 2014.

And after all, it was Zadornov who was almost the first to recall this wording about the “natural weakening of the ruble” again. We strongly doubt such “naturalness”, just as we do not believe in “a reduction in the trade surplus”.

Because we do not believe in the effectiveness of Western sanctions and price ceilings. And we are convinced of this by the haste with which the sanctioners backtrack on many positions in each next package of sanctions. Yes, and the gas ceiling, high, as in Stalin's houses, to be honest, does not cause anything but a smile.

Bets not yet placed


Today, we can be convinced as much as we like that only and exclusively the collective West is interested in the growth of the euro and the dollar against the ruble. And to prove that everything that is happening is the result of the introduction of a ceiling on oil prices and an increase in discount rates in the US and the Eurozone.

All this, of course, takes place, if we completely forget about the spring of 2022 and how easily the Russian Central Bank completed the seemingly impossible task of returning exchange rates from heaven to earth. And about how after that Russian exporters cried out about the loss in export profits from the strong ruble.

Now the ruble has weakened, but not so much as to immediately "save" the foreign trade balance and, along with it, the budget, which, in fact, does not need to be saved. After all, the cost of maintaining any decent income for those who really need it is not provided.

And this is even taking into account the latest decision to raise the minimum wage, which was announced by none other than the head of state. And this is with a clear prospect of a very rapid strengthening of the ruble. When will the final tax payments, and will greatly increase the demand for the national currency.

Be that as it may, the Russian financial system nevertheless managed to be seriously and for a long time distanced from the international one. And, no matter what the liberal supporters of world integration, and in fact - globalization under the dollar, may say, economic sovereignty is almost, first of all, one's own currency.

And better, of course - convertible. However, the topic of conversion, as well as the topic of money in general, is a big conversation about trust, which continues not even for centuries, but for millennia.

We didn't warn about this.


The other day, when it finally became clear to many that cryptocurrencies are too similar to pyramids, it was somehow suddenly and not too loudly announced plans to release a new world currency. They even came up with a slightly intricate name for it - bancor. Nothing but an alternative to the dollar and the euro.


Although it is absolutely impossible to understand who and how will deal with the bancor from open sources. The IMF, the World Bank, or anyone else who already works for the dollar?

The ideas of a new world or integration currency are literally floating in the air today. They were worn before. At least since the dollar has reigned “in the whole civilized world” (we haven’t forgotten this turnover yet).

In the Eurasian space, someone, for example, the ex-president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, dreamed of Altyn, in the BRICS - they talked a lot about some kind of brixi. The Middle East and Latin America did not stand aside either.

By the way, the euro, if desired, can be considered the first major experiment of this kind, although this is nothing more than a surrogate for the dollar. The euro is no better than the Japanese yen, and the Chinese yuan, too.

Let the People's Bank of China try to put us down for such a passage, and let them boast of their ability to manipulate rates. That's just without the American market and without the dollar, the entire industry of China will fly into hell.

At present, no one has felt the bancor effect, as once there was no serious reaction to bitcoin, but there the limited emission and limited energy opportunities for mining turned out to be the salvation. Bancors, if desired, can be released as much as you like, there would be demand.

Again, no one will tell you now whether there will be this demand. After all, we will not get tired of repeating money - nothing more than a surrogate for trust, they believed in the ruble as soon as they began to accept it, or rather, forcibly take it for oil and gas. What it will be possible to force with a bancor is not yet known, but if necessary, there will be.
Author:
Photos used:
ereport.ru, svop.ru, mavink.com
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  1. Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
    Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov 25 December 2022 04: 50
    -2
    It's too early to worry about the ruble

    ***
    - The course is stable ...



    ***
    1. Civil
      Civil 26 December 2022 07: 14
      -3
      In my life, the ruble died repeatedly and each time they didn’t explain everything in any way - they pretended that it was necessary. Or they frankly scoffed declaring that a weak ruble (respectively, the impoverishment of the population) is very beneficial for the state.
  2. yuriy55
    yuriy55 25 December 2022 05: 19
    +10
    You need to worry about the ruble just because, despite all the attempts of the Russian authorities, it has not reached its destination and has not taken its rightful place in the list of reserve currencies (like there is nothing to buy for the ruble).
    Maybe it is the nature of the speculative economy that has led to this situation?! Maybe it's time to reduce the number of banks (TO ONE - STATE, for example), which are allowed to engage in currency speculation?!
    It is disgusting to watch how, over the course of three decades, a huge tribe of burnouts, quarrelers, swindlers has bred (and continues to multiply) in the country ...
  3. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 25 December 2022 05: 22
    +1
    they believed the ruble as soon as they began to accept it, or rather, forcibly take it for oil and gas

    When you deal with bankers, you can’t believe a single word they say ... these scammers made their fortunes on gullible people ... now they also parasitize on them by removing numerous commissions and interest from their salaries, credit cards, bank cards and other tools for legally taking money from simple-minded citizens.
    The 90s taught me well not to take the word of either bankers or government officials ... who, like Basilio the cat and Alice the fox, are constantly looking for new ways to pluck citizens.
    The ruble will inevitably fall because it is beneficial for business... ordinary citizens will always pay for inflation out of their own pocket... oil and gas are just particulars.
    The Classics of Capital have described this process well... everything is natural.
  4. Beetle1991
    Beetle1991 25 December 2022 05: 35
    +8
    Because we do not believe in the effectiveness of Western sanctions and price ceilings.

    Well, this is a clear denial of the facts.
    Brent oil is about 40% more expensive than Urals, with a similar composition. Urals is about $55 per barrel (with a ceiling of $60), Brent is about $75-80.
    Gas exports to the largest gas market have decreased significantly. Nord Stream stopped. There they blow up, then the turbines are arrested. Nord Stream 2 will not be launched at all.
    And the author probably doesn’t know about sanctions in the form of freezing more than $300 billion?
    Yes, the author knows everything. But pushes the song: but we don't care.
    Russia's GDP in 2013 (before the first sanctions) was 2 trillion.292 billion. Russia's GDP in 2021 is $1 trillion, $776 billion, that is, over 8 years, the economy has contracted by more than 20%. This year, the Ministry of Finance and the Russian Central Bank expect the economy to fall by another 4 percent. That is, in 8 years the economy has lost more than 25%, more than a quarter.
    At the same time, over these 8 years, the world economy has grown by an average of 3-4% per year. Developed countries grew by about 2-3% per year. Developing on average by 4-7%.

    Sanctions are not a brick to the head. Sanctions are bricks in a backpack. Well, they threw 4-5 bricks into your backpack. Not fatal, it's not a brick on the head. But over a long distance, it slows down the wearer of this backpack all the time.
    1. Reader 47
      Reader 47 26 December 2022 06: 25
      +1
      Quote: Beetle1991
      Russia's GDP in 2013 (before the first sanctions) was 2 trillion.292 billion. Russia's GDP in 2021 is $1 trillion, $776 billion, that is, over 8 years, the economy has contracted by more than 20%.

      Well you give! ))) Thank you, I haven't laughed so much in a long time.
      1. SavranP
        SavranP 27 December 2022 08: 42
        0
        This, most likely, "banderlog vulgaris" tried to cast a shadow on the wattle fence. Urals - heavy oil from the Volga region: Bashkiria, Tatarstan, Samara, etc. The factories of Eastern Europe, the former CMEA, worked and are still working on it. Urals deliveries are shrinking as production costs rise. Brent, European oil, is simply running out: most of the wells in the North Sea are already empty. Therefore, the prices announced are fake. Light Siberian oil, ESPO brand, goes to the East and is not supplied to Europe.
  5. Nikolay Malyugin
    Nikolay Malyugin 25 December 2022 05: 44
    0
    I am not an economist. I consider all cases with the ruble with the eyes of an ordinary person. Everyone predicts the collapse of the US monetary system. And they themselves buy dollars in large quantities. How can the dollar fall? China keeps trillions of greenbacks in the treasury. We have less. But our people stocked up with dollars no worse than China. According to well-known economists, we have lost trillions of dollars over the past years only on the exchange.
    1. filibuster
      filibuster 25 December 2022 13: 01
      -1
      Everyone predicts the collapse of the US monetary system.


      The main thing here is to see who these predictors are.
    2. gromit
      gromit 25 December 2022 15: 47
      +3
      “It is a pity for people who buy dollars for 35 rubles. They will lose money."

      Do you mean this well-known economist?
    3. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 25 December 2022 18: 40
      +1
      Quote: Nikolai Malyugin
      I am not an economist. I consider all cases with the ruble with the eyes of an ordinary person. Everyone predicts the collapse of the US monetary system. And they themselves buy dollars in large quantities. How can the dollar fall? China keeps trillions of greenbacks in the treasury. We have less. But our people stocked up with dollars no worse than China.
      Yes, not exactly like that. Now in the world there is a clear tendency to reduce the basket of the dollar in gold reserves. If Russia used to have something under 150 billion dollars in US debt obligations, then today it is hardly 3 billion. China had these papers for 1 trillion, but since the spring of this year it has arranged their sale and today it has these papers in the amount of slightly more than 3 billion. Japan and England reduced the amount of American paper in their reserves by 400 billion each. It if on large holders. I think that those who are smaller also got involved in this process, especially after mattresses and co. seized 250 billion dollars from Russia, because now no one believes in any guarantees that are guaranteed by the United States.
      As for the ruble, I am also not an economist at all, but I think that it will probably fall because. in general, foreign exchange earnings have fallen, and if the ruble is issued at the previous dollar price, this will simply lead to a shortage of rubles to fulfill social guarantees, obligations and other payments. Having sold a dollar for a hundred rubles, the budget will receive one amount, and a dollar for fifty dollars, a completely different one. In the first case, filling all the holes with a ruble is much easier than in the second case. And then the end of the year, tax payments, debts, etc. in short, more rubles are needed.
  6. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 25 December 2022 06: 53
    0
    An authoritative professional has no doubt that...
    Bankers in all countries live their lives trying to influence the economy and politics, but at the same time not forgetting their main purpose - profit, and it is better to be very large.
  7. Boris55
    Boris55 25 December 2022 08: 03
    -3
    Quote: A. Ivanov, A. Podymov
    After all, we won’t get tired of repeating money - nothing more than a surrogate for trust

    Money is the most generalized information about product exchange.
    When the amount of money does not match the availability of products, inflation or deflation occurs.

    Quote: A. Ivanov, A. Podymov
    forced to take for oil and gas

    Seriously? belay When you come to the market, do the sellers immediately wring your hands and force you to buy your goods at the price that is? laughing Are you in favor of command and control management? Do you understand that when the production of a product becomes unprofitable, this product will disappear?

    The authors are clearly pushing the idea of ​​the West to limit product prices, without which they will simply become uncompetitive and roll back to the 16th century.
    1. SavranP
      SavranP 27 December 2022 15: 43
      0
      It surprises me that smart and very educated financiers in Russia (the same bank in Russia, for example) do not remember hundreds, perhaps thousands, of years of work as "changers", from which modern bankers originated (a bank is a bench on which the money changer sat). Money changers ensured the exchange of some money for others that were in circulation in the area. Why do Russian banks, such as VTB and VEB, not open their branches at Russian embassies in countries with which Russian enterprises have at least some significant trade. That is, to trade for rubles and local currency. Exchange rates can be determined at the auctions of the same Moscow Currency Exchange, or in another place, as agreed by the parties. The main thing is to get away from parasitic intermediaries, the dollar, the euro, etc.
  8. Just_Kvasha
    Just_Kvasha 25 December 2022 08: 20
    0
    It is desirable to beat the enemy with his own weapon. We cannot completely stop trading with the West, and no one can. Therefore, with the countries that have introduced a price ceiling, continue trading, but introduce for them our floor (or plinth, if you like), the essence of which is that when the actual price drops below the plinth, deliveries stop, and the execution of contracts is suspended.
    As for the exchange rate, why is the ruble measured in dollars? It's time to make gold a universal measurer, and determine any rates through it.
  9. Mihail0221
    Mihail0221 25 December 2022 08: 48
    -2
    However, at the moment there is nothing wrong with the weakening of the ruble. At least for those who do not plan to make solid import purchases and large trips abroad.

    And these are the majority in the country,

    Nothing really bad so far. Prices have risen, but they have risen every year without war or sanctions. request so we live and not only chew bread.
  10. Illanatol
    Illanatol 25 December 2022 09: 00
    +1
    Quote: Beetle1991
    Russia's GDP in 2013 (before the first sanctions) was 2 trillion.292 billion. Russia's GDP in 2021 is $1 trillion, $776 billion, that is, over 8 years, the economy has contracted by more than 20%. This year, the Ministry of Finance and the Russian Central Bank expect the economy to fall by another 4 percent. That is, in 8 years the economy has lost more than 25%, more than a quarter.
    At the same time, over these 8 years, the world economy has grown by an average of 3-4% per year. Developed countries grew by about 2-3% per year. Developing on average by 4-7%.


    The economy grew, the economy fell. It is necessary to consider in which sectors the growth or fall.
    If the fall is concentrated in the "virtual casino" sector, then this is definitely not a problem. Rather, it even benefits the real sector. There is also little benefit from inflating financial bubbles - and this is "economic growth" in developed countries. What is such an inflated economy worth - we see on the example of European countries. The reduction in trade with the Russian Federation, in terms of value, is very small, but significant for the real sector, has led to rather serious consequences.

    As for the ruble. Of course he will weaken. For the sake of oil exporters, to compensate for their losses from energy exports. Well, our state is like this ... "someone has a donut, someone has a donut hole, this is a democratic republic."
  11. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 25 December 2022 09: 01
    0
    Zadornov should be asked how he managed to drive the Otkritie bank into debt, having an unlimited resource of money from the Central Bank. He was even given a successful pension fund under management. Let's see how VTB copes with this asset "a suitcase without a handle".
  12. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 25 December 2022 09: 22
    -1
    We have to wait for the report of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. What is happening in the hydrocarbon market. All these Western agencies work only for themselves; 15 billion yuan ($2 billion) in one day, you won’t understand anything in one day. Maybe it’s just a conspiracy of exporters in December.
  13. lis-ik
    lis-ik 25 December 2022 11: 19
    +1
    It is surprising how easily the authorities solve the problems of the raw material segment and the filling of the budget at the expense of the population (lowering the ruble) and this does not cause rejection from anyone.
    1. AdAstra
      AdAstra 25 December 2022 15: 07
      +2
      It causes rejection, but only, as in that song, "violent few"
    2. Sahalinets
      Sahalinets 28 December 2022 03: 16
      0
      Does it surprise you? You've been out for the last thirty years and just now came out of a coma? Then I have bad news for you - this is now the norm!
  14. Maks1995
    Maks1995 25 December 2022 11: 36
    0
    Either way, prices will go up. From the depreciation of the ruble and New Year's time.

    Almost no one has a bancor, no cryptocurrencies, but everyone goes to the store .... and they are unlikely to remember the phrases of Mikhail Zadornov, looking at the price tag that has risen once again ....

    next to it are articles that people have less and less money .... apparently, they belong to those who live on another planet .....
  15. Old Horseradish
    Old Horseradish 25 December 2022 11: 59
    0
    These are the same creatures who stole my savings from my savings book in 1992. And you can have no doubt!
  16. Msi
    Msi 25 December 2022 13: 15
    -2
    by the New Year, either the euro or the dollar will exceed 70 rubles (What can we expect from the New Year's ruble?). At that time, the mark of 73 rubles was called the upper exchange rate bar. It is possible that now it will even have to jump over.
    ...Sho again... laughing everything is gone. What a nightmare laughing
  17. Glagol1
    Glagol1 26 December 2022 20: 21
    +1
    The fading of trade with the West and the decline in the ability to export capital, the growth of foreign trade with settlements in rubles - all this will not allow the ruble to fall much, even if oil and gas fall. 70 - 75 rubles per dollar - this rate is objectively real.
  18. Sahalinets
    Sahalinets 28 December 2022 03: 15
    0
    Yes, really, why should an ordinary citizen worry about a decrease in his real income? Well, he will buy two Aurus instead of three and will eat sturgeon caviar only in the morning ...
  19. zenion
    zenion 31 December 2022 20: 32
    0
    No need to worry about the ruble. Many rubles are hidden behind the cordon. Of course they are called differently and they look different. Either they glow yellow, or they shine like diamonds, but they are there. Not for everyone, but many don't. They lie there peacefully with Hitler's money and do not bite.