So is it the right course?
Back in November, the authors plucked up the courage to predict that by the New Year, either the euro or the dollar would exceed 70 rubles (What can we expect from the New Year's ruble?). At that time, the mark of 73 rubles was called the upper exchange rate bar. It is possible that now it will even have to jump over.
The authors do not find anything good in the fall of the ruble, and they never find it, even if there are serious problems with filling the treasury and executing the budget. These problems can and should be solved in other ways, rather than exchange rate games at the expense of the population.
It is already crushed by rising prices, many times higher than the official inflation figures. However, at the moment there is nothing wrong with the weakening of the ruble. At least for those who do not plan to make solid import purchases and large trips abroad.
And such people are in the majority in the country, and we, as you know, have democracy, not Western liberal, but precisely in favor of the majority. Whether the liberals are afraid of the weakening of the national currency can be judged by their speeches in defense of the high rates of the euro and the dollar.
Or, according to current maxims, for example, from the forgotten Mikhail Zadornov, who, having left power, has been driving banks for several years now - at first, it seems, VTB 24, now Otkritie, which almost fell victim to bankruptcy and reorganization.
Word to the banker
So, Mikhail Mikhailovich believes that
“in a situation that we consider basic for ourselves, that is, when there is no global crisis, ... the ruble exchange rate will weaken within reasonable limits, to about 75 rubles. for the dollar and the euro, depending on the strengthening of a particular currency. Why? That same trade surplus will halve and return to pre-2022 levels.”
An authoritative professional has no doubt that
"this will inevitably affect the ruble, since no one - neither the Central Bank nor the government - will artificially move it."
It would be interesting to know - Zadornov has some kind of insider in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers, what is so sure?
And where, then, was he in March 2022, when everyone was also waiting "natural weakening of the ruble". Double, or even triple at the exchange rate. And actually, at some point, they waited for 200 rubles at the exchange rate, and then they got a reverse move, up to the marks of almost 2014.
And after all, it was Zadornov who was almost the first to recall this wording about the “natural weakening of the ruble” again. We strongly doubt such “naturalness”, just as we do not believe in “a reduction in the trade surplus”.
Because we do not believe in the effectiveness of Western sanctions and price ceilings. And we are convinced of this by the haste with which the sanctioners backtrack on many positions in each next package of sanctions. Yes, and the gas ceiling, high, as in Stalin's houses, to be honest, does not cause anything but a smile.
Bets not yet placed
Today, we can be convinced as much as we like that only and exclusively the collective West is interested in the growth of the euro and the dollar against the ruble. And to prove that everything that is happening is the result of the introduction of a ceiling on oil prices and an increase in discount rates in the US and the Eurozone.
All this, of course, takes place, if we completely forget about the spring of 2022 and how easily the Russian Central Bank completed the seemingly impossible task of returning exchange rates from heaven to earth. And about how after that Russian exporters cried out about the loss in export profits from the strong ruble.
Now the ruble has weakened, but not so much as to immediately "save" the foreign trade balance and, along with it, the budget, which, in fact, does not need to be saved. After all, the cost of maintaining any decent income for those who really need it is not provided.
And this is even taking into account the latest decision to raise the minimum wage, which was announced by none other than the head of state. And this is with a clear prospect of a very rapid strengthening of the ruble. When will the final tax payments, and will greatly increase the demand for the national currency.
Be that as it may, the Russian financial system nevertheless managed to be seriously and for a long time distanced from the international one. And, no matter what the liberal supporters of world integration, and in fact - globalization under the dollar, may say, economic sovereignty is almost, first of all, one's own currency.
And better, of course - convertible. However, the topic of conversion, as well as the topic of money in general, is a big conversation about trust, which continues not even for centuries, but for millennia.
We didn't warn about this.
The other day, when it finally became clear to many that cryptocurrencies are too similar to pyramids, it was somehow suddenly and not too loudly announced plans to release a new world currency. They even came up with a slightly intricate name for it - bancor. Nothing but an alternative to the dollar and the euro.
Although it is absolutely impossible to understand who and how will deal with the bancor from open sources. The IMF, the World Bank, or anyone else who already works for the dollar?
The ideas of a new world or integration currency are literally floating in the air today. They were worn before. At least since the dollar has reigned “in the whole civilized world” (we haven’t forgotten this turnover yet).
In the Eurasian space, someone, for example, the ex-president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, dreamed of Altyn, in the BRICS - they talked a lot about some kind of brixi. The Middle East and Latin America did not stand aside either.
By the way, the euro, if desired, can be considered the first major experiment of this kind, although this is nothing more than a surrogate for the dollar. The euro is no better than the Japanese yen, and the Chinese yuan, too.
Let the People's Bank of China try to put us down for such a passage, and let them boast of their ability to manipulate rates. That's just without the American market and without the dollar, the entire industry of China will fly into hell.
At present, no one has felt the bancor effect, as once there was no serious reaction to bitcoin, but there the limited emission and limited energy opportunities for mining turned out to be the salvation. Bancors, if desired, can be released as much as you like, there would be demand.
Again, no one will tell you now whether there will be this demand. After all, we will not get tired of repeating money - nothing more than a surrogate for trust, they believed in the ruble as soon as they began to accept it, or rather, forcibly take it for oil and gas. What it will be possible to force with a bancor is not yet known, but if necessary, there will be.