Prologue: what is petrodollarIn 1973, the United States, in order to support global demand for its currency, actually created petrodollars. Between the USA and Saudi Arabia a deal was madeAccording to which every barrel of oil purchased from Saudi Arabia was nominated in US dollars. Moreover, according to the new rules, any country that wishes to purchase oil from Saudi Arabia should first exchange the national currency for US dollars.
In exchange for Saudi Arabia’s willingness to supply its oil exclusively for dollars, the United States offered it weapon and protection.
And by the year 1975 all the OPEC countries decided to estimate their own oil reserves exclusively in US dollars - and also in exchange for arms and military protection.
Thus arose the global petrodollar system, which quickly created artificial demand for the American currency throughout the world. And with the further increase in world demand for oil, the demand for dollars also grew ...
I. Red hand
Today in the USA are increasing volumes of oil production. According to the US energy department, only in 2012, they will increase by 7%. According to experts, if mining continues to grow at a similar pace, the United States will catch up with Saudi Arabia after 2. In addition, America intends to accelerate the development of large oil and gas fields, including in Alaska.
In this case, the States occupy the twelfth place in the world in terms of profitable proven reserves of "black gold".
In 2012, America returned to the level of the 14-year high for oil production. There is also information that America may soon print out oil reserves created in 1997.
Analysts cite two reasons for changing the oil policy of Washington: 1) The US is interested in reducing its dependence on energy imports from the Middle East, where with the rapid construction of democracy either problems have arisen or they are soon expected; 2) Washington and Riyadh are interested in lowering oil prices, so that in one fell swoop of two geopolitical hares with a kill: to weaken Russia and Iran. The interest in the decrease confirms the statement made in September by the Minister of Petroleum Industry Ali al-Naimi that Saudi Arabia is concerned about the rise in prices for black gold. Strange. It would seem: after all, the Saudis need to rejoice, but they worry. But everything fell into place when Washington vigorously welcomed dumping statements from Riyadh.
The oil dollar empire staggered!
Its dumping attempts occur on the background of the fact that Vladimir Putin received the title of "oil shah of the world" from Western journalists.
Quote:
Exxon Mobil is no longer the largest oil producer in the world. Starting from yesterday, this title belongs to Putin Oil Corp - ugh, I wanted to say Rosneft, a Russian company controlled by the state.
Rosneft buys TNK-BP, which is a vertically integrated oil company owned on a parity basis by the British oil company BP and a group of Russian billionaires known as AAP. As one of 10, the largest privately-owned oil producers in the world, in 2010, TNK-BP, with assets in Russia and Ukraine, distributed 1,74 a million barrels of oil equivalent daily to XNUMX, and processed almost half of this volume at its refineries.
With TNK-BP in hand, Rosneft will control production over 4 million barrels of oil per day. And who controls Rosneft? None other than Vladimir Putin, president of resource-rich Russia. ”
Rosneft buys TNK-BP, which is a vertically integrated oil company owned on a parity basis by the British oil company BP and a group of Russian billionaires known as AAP. As one of 10, the largest privately-owned oil producers in the world, in 2010, TNK-BP, with assets in Russia and Ukraine, distributed 1,74 a million barrels of oil equivalent daily to XNUMX, and processed almost half of this volume at its refineries.
With TNK-BP in hand, Rosneft will control production over 4 million barrels of oil per day. And who controls Rosneft? None other than Vladimir Putin, president of resource-rich Russia. ”
If the TNK-BP deal is completed, it will be the largest in the industry since Exxon bought Mobil in 1999 year. And Rosneft’s daily production will jump somewhere up to 4,5 million barrels - that’s enough to “breathe nostrils with Exxon” in the race for the title of the world's first oil producer.
"... Russia," writes Marin Katusa, "to hell is spending a lot on the purchase of its own oil production, which in my opinion smacks of nationalization."
A "taxis" to everyone in Russia, they believe in the West
“Vlad Putin is the most“ resource-motivated ”leader of the modern world ...”
The conclusion is made:
“Concentration in Putin’s hands to an even greater resource authority can only lead to one thing: high oil prices and an incredibly“ bull market ”of energy.”
And here's another news:
"... anyone who wants to work in Mother Russia should have a shaggy paw in the Kremlin, or he risks unexpectedly finding out that he was sent by the forest."
“Putin’s plan” works, according to Katus, due to nationalization:
“Over the past ten years, Rosneft has grown unrecognizably - not by chance, but because for Vladimir Putin it is a tool with which you can reiterate state ownership of a not weak piece of Russia's oil fields. The most prominent case in point was in 2003, when Putin presented a $ 27-billion tax bill to a privately-held oil company Yukos, which had bankruptted it. After that, the Russian president transferred the oil fields of YUKOS to Rosneft, with the result that oil production jumped from 400 thousand to 1,7 million barrels per day.
It was a blatant nationalization. The head and founder of Yukos, Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was accused of fraud and imprisoned. In one night, Rosneft swelled from a small oil producer to Russia's largest oil company. ”
It was a blatant nationalization. The head and founder of Yukos, Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was accused of fraud and imprisoned. In one night, Rosneft swelled from a small oil producer to Russia's largest oil company. ”
The author notes that only the Saudis produce more oil than the Russians, and besides, no one exports so much oil as Russia. And if Rosneft buys TNK-BP, the Russian state oil giant "will pump almost half of the oil extracted from the depths of Russia."
At the same time, the “Putin’s plan” for nationalization may not work if the Russian president does not take into account the mistakes made by others. Here in 1980, Saudi Arabia nationalized the oil industry, and in 5 the following years, production fell by more than 60%.
That is why V. Putin encourages BP to stay close: Rosneft needs special technical knowledge. M. Katus believes that Moscow is going to
“Print out huge reserves of unconventional oil in impermeable formations and gas on the shelf. In addition, endowing BP with the status of an important shareholder allows Putin to maintain the appearance that Rosneft is not just a continuation of the state. ”
In fact, the author of the article believes, it is still a continuation of the state. Moreover, as Rosneft takes control of Russian oil wealth, Putin’s weight in the international arena will only increase.
That is why, we will add on our own, Saudi Arabia, all of whose influence in the international arena is in the oil regula tion of the world economy, in clear agreement with the United States are going to begin new price manipulations. They are frightened by the grand Putin Plan. They are afraid of Russia's growing influence in the world market and at the same time in geopolitics. Oil profits today are nothing compared to the loss of influence tomorrow.
And then there is Gazprom. This company, writes Katusa, is also a Russian state one. Gazprom has actually hobbed Europe around: after all, Russia covers 34% of European gas needs. Sometime the South Stream under construction will work, and the percentage will increase. Everything: Gazprom controls the gas of Europe, Rosneft controls its oil.
"The red hand stretches from Russia, stretches to strangle the rule of the West and pave the way for a new world order - one in which Russia will be at the helm."
Ii. Working poor to replace middle class
Progressive journalist Michael Snyder считаетthat Russia, like China, is not at all the "buddies" of the United States. On the contrary, they are their ruthless rivals. Moreover, Russian and Chinese leaders are calling for a new global currency. That, it is not difficult to guess, means the exclusion of the dollar from the global oil economy.
For example, recently China and Germany agreed to increase the volume of joint trade for mutual currencies. In the USA, they didn’t even find what to say: the Washington media answered with silence. Snyder calls this "deafening silence."
But Russia and China have been concluding agreements of this type all over the world for the past few years.
M. Snyder makes unpleasant conclusions for America. First of all, oil for Americans will rise in price substantially. Secondly, all other goods will go up in price. Third, foreign demand for US government debt will decline substantially. Fourth, interest rates will rise in the US economy. For what exactly? For all!
And so that in Russia or in China there is no collapse, these smart countries accumulate gold resources. Gold is fully capable of protecting Moscow and Beijing from the currency crisis, and at the same time it will give weight to both the ruble and the yuan.
As a result, America will become Spain, and pensioners will be on the verge of poverty. Riots will begin. Most of the so-called "middle class" will turn into a "working poor".
And China and Russia will quietly share control over parts of the world ...
Iii. About gold
The same Snyder is trying to draw the attention of his American government to the “goldization” of Russia and China. He is bitter complainsthat the media in the United States almost completely ignore one of the most important trends in the global economy. But buying gold and gold by China and Russia while industrializing these countries is a trend, due to which the value of the US dollar will fall sharply and, as a result, the cost of living in America will increase.
Yes, the US dollar is still the main reserve currency of the world (more than 60% of all foreign exchange reserves in the world). In dollars, most calculations are still made. This, of course, gives the US huge economic benefits. Since trading is carried out in dollars, there is a constant demand for dollars - worldwide.
But now, says Comrade Snyder, the situation is changing. Now Russia and China are leading the movement that is interested in moving away from the use of the American dollar in international trade. Yes, this shift is taking place gradually, but the turning point is sure to come!
Nightmarish inflation will cover the United States. There will be a turning point in the entire global financial system. Native America does not pay attention to it? But in vain: China and Russia, "ruthless competitors", are moving the United States to collapse.
That's why M. Snyder is surprised at the silence of the American media.
And while they are silent, Russia in the face of “Tsar Vladimir Putin,” according to MarketWatch, is accumulating gold at an incredible pace. According to the World Gold Council, Russian gold reserves have more than doubled in the last five years.
V. Putin, the blogger believes, skillfully took advantage of the financial crisis to create the largest gold reserve in the world in just a few years. And now the “king” buys gold by about half a billion dollars every month.
And looking at Russians, China also “quietly imports giant golden mountains ...” For only the second quarter of 2012 of the year, China bought 75,8 tons of gold. This figure is twice the amount imported for the entire previous year - 38,1 thousand tons.
It should be noted that in the first seven months of 2012, China imported almost as much gold as the common hedge fund of the eurozone (European Central Bank). According to the forecast, at the end of 2012, the PRC imports more gold than during the same year by the ECB.
Moreover, Chinese companies are also buying gold mining firms around the world. China National Gold Group has applied for an amount of $ 3,9 billion, participating in a tender to acquire the African company Barrick Gold PLC. This is just one example; There are many of them; we will not bring them in the absence of space. We only indicate that the gold expansion of China has spread to Africa, Australia, Brazil, Kazakhstan (data from Fox Business).
And only the blind can not see what is happening.
Experienced dealers like George Soros and John Paulson, and behind them the central banks throughout the world, also accumulate gold. And the price of gold in the world naturally grows.
As a result, a situation may arise in which the dollar will simply be deleted from world currencies. It will cost less than printing paper. Not just "Moody's" will lower the credit rating of the US federal government, but there will be, according to Snyder, an "explosion of debt."
Meanwhile, Russia and China will agree on which global reserve currency will replace the dollar.
No, this day will not come tomorrow, Snyder believes, but he will definitely come.
And America will never recover from this.
By the way, popular Austrian economist Jerry Robinson считаетthat the separation of President 15 August 1971 from gold by President Richard Nixon occurred precisely with the goal of being able to print and deposit as many dollars into the world economy as America — with its rampant consumption and unwillingness to save — would be necessary.
Below we will have the opportunity to compare this opinion about American consumption about the opinion of another economist about Russian consumption.
Iv. About 2015 year
Russia is facing the end of surplus petrodollars, считает famous economist and analyst Charles Clover.
The oil-fueled active trade balance of Russia (785 billion dollars was accumulated during the period from 2000 to 2011, which is equivalent to more than 40% of last year’s GDP) gave Moscow the world's third-largest foreign exchange reserves: about half a trillion dollars.
Such impressive reserves of petrodollars allowed the Kremlin to spend more than 200 billions of dollars just to overcome the consequences of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. Russia also placed money in special stabilization funds, for example, in a reserve fund (61 billion $), in a national charity fund (88 billion $), thereby creating an “additional buffer” against the negative impact of the crisis.
Interestingly, against such a background, an American economist predicts a “double deficit economy” for Russia. Yes, yes, where both the federal budget and the external trade balance will have negative values. And this, in his opinion, will prove to be a “rude awakening” for the current Russian “tactics.”
Similar negative values occurred at the end of 1997, the analyst writes, which was then the main reason for the collapse of the ruble in August 1998.
If in 1998, foreign currency reserves in the country were less than 20 billions of dollars, now they reach approximately 500 billions of dollars. But this does not prevent the Western economist from saying that the management of the Russian economy today is “not at all beautiful” and somewhat resembles the “chaos” of the post-Soviet years (1990-s).
Where does the problem come from?
But the fact is that the Russians, according to the author, consume too much, which is why they, as they say, will not converge with credit.
After all, Comrade Putin promised before the election trillions of rubles for wage increases. In addition, the foreign expert believes that budget funds were also spent to ensure re-election in March.
Eventually
“Instead of facing such a pleasant question as spending a golden pile, the government may have to make an unpleasant choice between borrowing, devaluing the ruble, or cutting expenses.”
The price of oil is still quite high. The Central Bank of Russia believes that, given its price in 2015, a little less than $ 130 per barrel, a country can afford to manage an excess of $ billion in $ 51.
But the fact is, Mr. Clover believes, that by that time imports will eventually be ahead of exports:
"... the Russians make up for the hardships of communism by consuming with amazing appetites."
And only the elimination of the “soft petrodollar pillow” could benefit Russia. It could finally force the government to transform both the economy and the legal system at the same time to make the country attractive for foreign investments.
Currently, however, instead of raising capital, Russia exports it. Net capital outflows amounted to 84 billion (equivalent to 5% of GDP) in 2011. The central bank said that this figure would fall to 65 billion dollars in 2012 and to 15 billion dollars in 2015.
The American does not believe this. This is understandable: otherwise his entire article will crumble.
Meanwhile, the "financial guru", a well-known large investor Jim Rogers (former partner of George Soros in the "Quantum" fund), already today advises invest in Russia. He speaks of his native America like this:
“In 2013 and 2014, we will have economic problems ... Either they (politicians) will have to raise taxes, or they will have to be fooled. ... raising taxes has never led to economic growth. "
Against such a negative economic background, Comrade Rogers turned his gaze to Russia. He, who has been negative about his career, now declares:
"I am convinced that for the first time things in Russia have changed."
And now he is busy only with what he thinks: where exactly to invest his money in Russia. Earlier, in September, Rogers accepted the offer of Russian VTB to become an advisor in the field of agricultural investment.
Moreover, now he considers Russia to be more attractive in investment terms than China.
About the fact that the American economy comes "The End", Rogers expressed back in May:
"The United States is the largest debtor nation in the world storiesMany European countries also have excessive debt levels. And history shows that such a situation can only be overcome through a crisis. In America, debt levels exceeded 1 trillion. $ this year. The situation is getting worse, not getting better. All this will end in a terrible collapse. I hate to say this, but we must face the facts ... "
Epilogue: about The End of Petrodollar
Petrodollar system, prompts To us, the Austrian economist Jerry Robinson has proven to be extremely beneficial to the American economy. In addition to creating a market for affordable imported goods from different countries that need US dollars, the United States received more specific advantages: after all, America, in fact, now receives a “double credit” from each global oil transaction.
First, oil consumers have to buy it in US dollars. Second, the super-profits of oil-producing countries are then placed in US government debt securities, which are held in Western banks.
Petrodollars provide at least three immediate benefits to the United States: with such a settlement system, the demand for US dollars increases; growing demand for valuable US debt securities; Finally, the system gives the United States the opportunity to buy oil for a currency that can ... be printed at will.
The last point the Austrian scientist compares with the cultivation of carrots. Here you need to buy gasoline, but gasoline changes only to a carrot. And there is one person in your city who grows it: he has exclusive rights to that. Uncomfortable, but nothing can be done: you have to go to him for a carrot. But how convenient for him! He has plenty of gas. And the carrot costs him little. He just needs to throw seeds in the soil.
The same story with the printing of American money. They can stamp only the US Federal Reserve. On paper.
Obviously, says Robinson, creating a system of petrodollars turned out to be a brilliant political and economic step. All subsequent actions of America in the Middle East were due to its protection of the petrodollar system - including under the guise of fulfilling obligations under a long-standing deal: after all, the contract provided for the United States to protect Middle Eastern oil-producing states from threats.
It remains to add that the sources of threats were skillfully modeled by the United States. For this, destabilization processes have been fueling for decades in the Middle East.
An empire, Robinson writes, has no friends, an empire deals only with things. Never follow the deceiving media: always follow the money.
That is why the American mass media are now silent about the realization of Moscow expansion in the oil market, securely covered from the rear by buying up gold! The American public has been fooling since 1971. It is worth it, this very public, to explain what the plans of the “tsar” Putin are fraught with, and at the same time the golden Peking strategy is fraught with how the public will understand how cleverly and for how long it fooled.
What's next?
And then only “psychological expectations” will lead the American economy to a market and inflationary collapse. And no Saudi Arabia will save their “defender”. You know, there are a lot of oil in Venezuela, where Hugo’s “regime” is viciously scourged by Washington as dictatorial. There is a lot of “black gold” in Iran, which came under the sanctions of the United States and the EU. Do we need to talk about Russia, which, thanks to The End of Petrodollar, will strengthen on the world stage?
Therefore, the American corporate media are silent, the Fed continues to amortize its machine round-the-clock, and the United States and Saudis have launched a joint campaign to lower oil prices, reminiscent of the one with which the USSR was destroyed. But this time the goal is smaller - not the destruction of Russia, but the preservation of a shaky petrodollar empire.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru