"The line should go through here", - said he, holding a red marker strip on a poster with an image of an exploding bomb.
“Here” is at the 90-percent completion mark of Iran’s nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu thoroughly prepared for that speech. He read analytics, searched for articles on the Internet - and in New York shared his findings with the audience:
“By next summer, with the current level of enrichment (uranium), Iran will reach an average level of enrichment. And then it will only take a few months or weeks for Iran to get enough uranium for the first bomb. ”
According to Netanyahu, the only peaceful way to prevent Iran from getting bombs is observing the red line.
It seems to be translated from a diplomatic language that means: only one road leads to peace - military threats. He who has nuclear weapons speaks the language of threats to those who do not yet have nuclear weapons. And after such sharp warnings, the alleged creator of a nuclear weapon must immediately abandon any of his atomic inclinations and speak out for nuclear-free world peace. A little one-sided position, as it seems, - but when diplomats, even more so of a high rank and so much experience as Mr. Netanyahu, thought about the second side? And it’s not up to the statesman to think about the welfare of the one whom he considers an adversary. If, considering him to be an opponent, he really cares about the welfare of his native country ... Otherwise, who knows, what if Comrade Ahmadinejad is from Iran, as American, and British, special services have long been saying, is not going to make an atomic bomb? Then Netanyahu’s concern for the welfare of the motherland can only harm the homeland ...
At the same UN General Assembly, it turned out that the White House is not only not inclined to launch any kind of military action against Iran, but generally refers to the “nuclear issue” as if it practically does not exist.
Representatives of the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, following Netanyahu speaking in New York, stated the need to give a chance to international diplomacy, but rejected the idea of "deadlines and red lines". We agreed to the fact that the Israeli prime minister forced publicly reject allegations of interfering with the US election campaign.
As a result, the aggressive intentions of the Israeli prime minister, no matter how peaceful the goals he did not hide behind and no matter what visual banners with bombs he exhibited near the UN rostrum, left Netanyahu alone. What is America? After all, in Israel itself, as it has long been known, many politicians and military do not support the idea of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially without participating in the US operation (such is, for example, the opinion of Israeli President Shimon Peres).
Recently, Mr. Netanyahu confirmed his position on the Iranian issue. And the prime minister has found new arguments.
Giving an interview to the French magazine “Paris Match”, he saidthat Israel’s strike on Iran is in the interest of the Arab countries. Netanyahu said:
“Five minutes after the strike, contrary to skeptics, the region will breathe a sigh of relief.” He added: “Iran is by no means popular in the Arab world, and some governments in the countries of the region, as well as local residents, understood that Iran’s armed with nuclear weapons would be a danger not only for Israel, but also for Arabs.”
The Prime Minister, of course, knows better, but so far in reality there is a tripartite alliance of Iran, Iraq and Syria. And with the economic blockade of Iran and Syria, when al-Maliki’s dissatisfaction with America is in Iraq (rumor has it that they are already going to be "replaced"), this alliance will only grow stronger. Thus, referring to the “Arabs”, Mr. Netanyahu is probably broadcasting about Qatar from Saudi Arabia. Maybe more about Jordan to boot. But now a coalition is being created in the region, to which the UAE calls Arabs - to counter the Islamist dangerous tendencies (especially the activity of the Brothers), and nobody cares about Iran’s medical nuclear program. In addition, the influence of the United States, which many suspect, will still support its local ally, that is, Israel, has fallen in the region.
America itself once again recently began to discourage Israel from entering Iran.
The US military command not only warned Israeli colleagues, but clarifiedthat any actions against Iran could seriously limit the ability of American forces in the region to conduct their own operations to counter the Iranian nuclear program.
After all, the naval, air force and ground forces of the United States are dependent on the rulers of the Persian Gulf states. Judge for yourself: the US Navy base is located in Bahrain, and the main air force bases are in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman. The US military leadership is unlikely to be able to fully rely on these bases if Israel begins to act first. And the truth is: who knows what the answer will be? One thing is clear: it will be fast. Rather, even the Ayatollahs of Iran will strike at the pre-emption, the so-called "preventive", which has been repeatedly stated.
As for the limited strike on Iranian facilities, this is not enough: it will not destroy the program, but only infuriate Tehran.
“A strike can create serious problems for the Gulf countries in the political field. The risk of regional war is too great for them, ”said Emil Hokay, an employee of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.
Thus, the region does not support Israel at all. Rather the opposite.
And if Mr. Netanyahu, the prime minister, continues to be worn with his “red lines” and unconvincing rhetoric, then Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who fully shared the ideas of the prime minister, has recently begun to surrender.
On October 30, it was interviewed by the popular British newspaper The Daily Telegraph and right сообщилthat Iran, they say, retreated from its nuclear ambitions. True, temporarily. This reservation was probably needed by Comrade Barak in order to alleviate the bitterness of the realization that Tel Aviv was left without Washington's support. Of course, there is hope for Mitt Romney - after all, the famous Canadian medium recently predicted that he would become the president - but the inauguration will take place only on January 20. Is that why we were talking about “temporary”?
The head of the Israeli Defense Ministry said in an interview with a British newspaper that sanctions and diplomatic efforts are unlikely to lead to resolving the confrontation, and added that therefore Israel (of course, along with its long-awaited allies) will probably come to the need to decide on a military strike against nuclear weapons. objects of Iran, but "next year."
Ehud Barak noted that in August, Tehran sent 38% uranium reserves, enriched to 20%, out of its total quantity in 189 kg, for processing into fuel for a research reactor. And this Iranian solution "allows us to consider the postponement of a critical moment for the period from 8 to 10 months." According to him, if such a decision had not been made, an escalation could have taken place before the presidential elections in the United States.
Here the journalists asked for an explanation of what was happening. Why is this stubborn Ahmadinejad retreated? Somehow it does not look like him.
The Israeli Defense Minister has prepared three explanations for this.
“The first is a broad discussion of a possible Israeli or American operation that kept them (Tehran) from trying to get closer (to developing nuclear weapons). It could also probably be a focused diplomatic maneuver, which they took to avoid the culmination of this problem before the US elections, just to gain time. It could also be a way to convey to the IAEA that, they say, "we are honoring our commitments." Maybe it is a combination of all three elements. ”
Yeah, the first reason was, of course, a “broad discussion.” Barak apparently believes that he and Netanyahu have frightened Ahmadinejad with “red lines”.
In order not to resemble the one who started a retreat from military plans, Ehud Barak said that "the Iranians are determined to turn into a military nuclear power." Only now it will probably happen “next spring or early summer of next year”.
The Israeli Defense Minister also indicated:
“To be honest, based on my long experience in the Middle East, I am extremely skeptical about the likelihood that (sanctions) will force the Ayatollahs to come together at any stage in the foreseeable future and decide to abandon their intention to follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea and turn into a military nuclear power. "
In short, the Israeli Defense Minister gave America one last chance to improve. For now - wait for the election results. As they used to say in advertising: “Make a groove, eat Twix.”
In the meantime, “Twix” is drinking tea, Mr. Romney can come to power in the United States. At the end of October, this warlike man made it clear to everyone that no consequences of the war with Iran would frighten him and they could not frighten him. He is brave said on debates:
“If I become the president of the United States, I’ll support Israel. If Israel is attacked, we will defend it. Not only by diplomatic measures, but also by military force. Secondly, of course, there can be no question of Iran becoming a nuclear state. This is unacceptable for America. I would also have Ahmadinejad convicted in accordance with the UN Convention on Genocide. I would blame him. ”
And who just inspired this lover of military toys, that someone is planning an attack on Israel?
As for Iran, Ahmadinejad is not going to do anything there and was not going to refuse. Moreover, the Iranian president even boasts with his program, however peaceful.
Last week, Iran officially recognized (first recognized), that is now at the final stage of the installation of centrifuges at the underground facility Ford. This information, which had previously appeared in the press, was confirmed by the head of the Iranian nuclear agency Fereydun Abbasi-Davani himself.
“Iran is completing the launched nuclear project, despite the speculation and negative reports of the Western media,” comrade Abbasi-Davani said at the end of the government meeting.
Iran has completed the installation of the latest 640 uranium centrifuges at an underground plant in Fordo, built inside a mountain. There are 2.800 in total there, but they have not started working yet.
Finally, it must be said that Israel and the United States now have relations.
Professor Bar-Ilan University Eitan Gilboa, believes that the union of the United States and Israel is beneficial to all. He believes this as firmly as Netanyahu believes that the attack of Iran is in the hands of all Arab states.
Giving an interview to the Voice of Russia correspondent, professor сказал:
“The United States is Israel’s most important partner both militarily and diplomatically. The two countries have very close interests in everything that concerns the elimination of common external threats, such as nuclear Iran. Hence, so close attention in Israel to the election of the American president. ”
Of course, intent. Netanyahu and Barak will not wait, when Mitt Romney will sit on the throne in the White House. However, there is not a tron; in the US there is still Congress. You can still say about the "backstage of the world", but already tired.
The professor is somewhat offended by Obama: he has never been to Jerusalem. In short, Obama pushed Israel somewhere - not to the background, not even to the third.
Well, yes, whether the case of Romney, who not only flew to Jerusalem, but also called it the capital of Israel. Here it is.
But the professor is a smart man. Referring to some analysts, he said that in the event of re-election, we would see the new Obama at the helm of America. This will be a wise president who will "radically reconsider his foreign policy."
However, the professor immediately added that the majority of Israelis are hoping for a victory for Romney.
What is it about? All clear. Obama, once again becoming president, will suddenly show himself as a clone of Romney’s election campaign. And then all the aggressive hopes and military aspirations of Mr. Netanyahu and at the same time Eitan Gilboa will come true.
But somehow it is doubtful that Comrade Obama - if the American people choose him - suddenly began to implement Mr. Romney’s election program.
Also in the 2008 election of the 4 of millions of American Jews eligible to vote, 78% voted for Barack Obama. Recent polls show that even today the Jews of America will remain loyal to the democrats.
It would be nice to have a little more peace in the world and a little less war. This, so to speak, is a minimum program.
In the meantime, both Israel and the United States are preparing for a possible war.
Now there are the largest in stories bilateral military cooperation between Washington and Tel Aviv three-week exercises of the forces of the missile and air defense forces called "Severe Challenge - 2012". It is argued that these teachings are not related to the Iranian nuclear issue. Commander of the US contingent Lieutenant-General of the United States Air Force Craig Franklin says:
“Everything in these teachings is subordinated to the improvement of joint American-Israeli capabilities. This is a command army work. It is not connected with any elections or tensions in the Middle East. We are military professionals who train together to solve defensive tasks. ”
In addition to the Israeli defense, the Americans brought the GCS ultra-modern radar system and the Patriot system.
Maneuvers are held in secret mode. According to Israeli media, the exercise will cost the American side 30 millions, and the Israelis 8 millions of dollars.
In parallel, throughout Israel there are rear service exercises. According to the scenario, an earthquake occurred in Israel. Analysts do not allow ambiguous interpretations of the causes of this very “earthquake”. We are talking about possible strikes from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah.
John Ray, an analyst with NBC News, reports that about 3500 US troops and about 1000 Israeli soldiers are involved in the exercises.
“Whether we like it or not, - пишет a journalist - but these exercises are held in the midst of two election campaigns and, of course, at a time when a suspicious lull occurred in the actions against Iran.
Martin Dempsey, the head of the United Headquarters Command, however, remarked that the military would not want America to be seen as an "accomplice" of the Israeli attack. And the second side, that is, Israel, also expressed a stormy disagreement with such an assessment of the teachings.
But the analyst believes that neither the United States nor Israel can avoid a protracted conflict with Iran.
For Netanyahu, who is facing the elections, these exercises are beneficial because they emphasize that yes, the United States is still an Israeli ally. This Netanyahu can reassure their voters.
Barack Obama is also on hand, because he refutes some too fervent statements by Mitt Romney, who said earlier that the prevention of the Iranian threat to Israel is an American “sacred duty”.
Thus, no matter how much the journalists want “sensation,” the game is now going around elections, and not at all around the Iranian “nuclear problem.” Candidates make statements, voters shake a whisker, sociologists conduct polls and draw ratings, Ahmadinejad reports on the successes of the peaceful Iranian atom. Everything goes on as usual.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru