Military Review

Israel and the Iranian nuclear issue: pause or retreat?

14
At the end of September, at the UN General Assembly in New York, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again demonstrated to the public his red line strategy. He explained to the world community, and basically, of course, the Obama administration, where there is that terrible line, at the crossroads of which Iran, the international community will have to "toughly react."

"The line should go through here", - said he, holding a red marker strip on a poster with an image of an exploding bomb.


“Here” is at the 90-percent completion mark of Iran’s nuclear weapons.



Netanyahu thoroughly prepared for that speech. He read analytics, searched for articles on the Internet - and in New York shared his findings with the audience:

“By next summer, with the current level of enrichment (uranium), Iran will reach an average level of enrichment. And then it will only take a few months or weeks for Iran to get enough uranium for the first bomb. ”


According to Netanyahu, the only peaceful way to prevent Iran from getting bombs is observing the red line.

It seems to be translated from a diplomatic language that means: only one road leads to peace - military threats. He who has nuclear weapons speaks the language of threats to those who do not yet have nuclear weapons. And after such sharp warnings, the alleged creator of a nuclear weapon must immediately abandon any of his atomic inclinations and speak out for nuclear-free world peace. A little one-sided position, as it seems, - but when diplomats, even more so of a high rank and so much experience as Mr. Netanyahu, thought about the second side? And it’s not up to the statesman to think about the welfare of the one whom he considers an adversary. If, considering him to be an opponent, he really cares about the welfare of his native country ... Otherwise, who knows, what if Comrade Ahmadinejad is from Iran, as American, and British, special services have long been saying, is not going to make an atomic bomb? Then Netanyahu’s concern for the welfare of the motherland can only harm the homeland ...

At the same UN General Assembly, it turned out that the White House is not only not inclined to launch any kind of military action against Iran, but generally refers to the “nuclear issue” as if it practically does not exist.

Representatives of the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, following Netanyahu speaking in New York, stated the need to give a chance to international diplomacy, but rejected the idea of ​​"deadlines and red lines". We agreed to the fact that the Israeli prime minister forced publicly reject allegations of interfering with the US election campaign.

As a result, the aggressive intentions of the Israeli prime minister, no matter how peaceful the goals he did not hide behind and no matter what visual banners with bombs he exhibited near the UN rostrum, left Netanyahu alone. What is America? After all, in Israel itself, as it has long been known, many politicians and military do not support the idea of ​​bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially without participating in the US operation (such is, for example, the opinion of Israeli President Shimon Peres).

Recently, Mr. Netanyahu confirmed his position on the Iranian issue. And the prime minister has found new arguments.

Giving an interview to the French magazine “Paris Match”, he saidthat Israel’s strike on Iran is in the interest of the Arab countries. Netanyahu said:

“Five minutes after the strike, contrary to skeptics, the region will breathe a sigh of relief.” He added: “Iran is by no means popular in the Arab world, and some governments in the countries of the region, as well as local residents, understood that Iran’s armed with nuclear weapons would be a danger not only for Israel, but also for Arabs.”


The Prime Minister, of course, knows better, but so far in reality there is a tripartite alliance of Iran, Iraq and Syria. And with the economic blockade of Iran and Syria, when al-Maliki’s dissatisfaction with America is in Iraq (rumor has it that they are already going to be "replaced"), this alliance will only grow stronger. Thus, referring to the “Arabs”, Mr. Netanyahu is probably broadcasting about Qatar from Saudi Arabia. Maybe more about Jordan to boot. But now a coalition is being created in the region, to which the UAE calls Arabs - to counter the Islamist dangerous tendencies (especially the activity of the Brothers), and nobody cares about Iran’s medical nuclear program. In addition, the influence of the United States, which many suspect, will still support its local ally, that is, Israel, has fallen in the region.

America itself once again recently began to discourage Israel from entering Iran.

The US military command not only warned Israeli colleagues, but clarifiedthat any actions against Iran could seriously limit the ability of American forces in the region to conduct their own operations to counter the Iranian nuclear program.

After all, the naval, air force and ground forces of the United States are dependent on the rulers of the Persian Gulf states. Judge for yourself: the US Navy base is located in Bahrain, and the main air force bases are in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman. The US military leadership is unlikely to be able to fully rely on these bases if Israel begins to act first. And the truth is: who knows what the answer will be? One thing is clear: it will be fast. Rather, even the Ayatollahs of Iran will strike at the pre-emption, the so-called "preventive", which has been repeatedly stated.

As for the limited strike on Iranian facilities, this is not enough: it will not destroy the program, but only infuriate Tehran.

“A strike can create serious problems for the Gulf countries in the political field. The risk of regional war is too great for them, ”said Emil Hokay, an employee of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.


Thus, the region does not support Israel at all. Rather the opposite.

And if Mr. Netanyahu, the prime minister, continues to be worn with his “red lines” and unconvincing rhetoric, then Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who fully shared the ideas of the prime minister, has recently begun to surrender.

On October 30, it was interviewed by the popular British newspaper The Daily Telegraph and right сообщилthat Iran, they say, retreated from its nuclear ambitions. True, temporarily. This reservation was probably needed by Comrade Barak in order to alleviate the bitterness of the realization that Tel Aviv was left without Washington's support. Of course, there is hope for Mitt Romney - after all, the famous Canadian medium recently predicted that he would become the president - but the inauguration will take place only on January 20. Is that why we were talking about “temporary”?

The head of the Israeli Defense Ministry said in an interview with a British newspaper that sanctions and diplomatic efforts are unlikely to lead to resolving the confrontation, and added that therefore Israel (of course, along with its long-awaited allies) will probably come to the need to decide on a military strike against nuclear weapons. objects of Iran, but "next year."

Ehud Barak noted that in August, Tehran sent 38% uranium reserves, enriched to 20%, out of its total quantity in 189 kg, for processing into fuel for a research reactor. And this Iranian solution "allows us to consider the postponement of a critical moment for the period from 8 to 10 months." According to him, if such a decision had not been made, an escalation could have taken place before the presidential elections in the United States.

Here the journalists asked for an explanation of what was happening. Why is this stubborn Ahmadinejad retreated? Somehow it does not look like him.

The Israeli Defense Minister has prepared three explanations for this.

“The first is a broad discussion of a possible Israeli or American operation that kept them (Tehran) from trying to get closer (to developing nuclear weapons). It could also probably be a focused diplomatic maneuver, which they took to avoid the culmination of this problem before the US elections, just to gain time. It could also be a way to convey to the IAEA that, they say, "we are honoring our commitments." Maybe it is a combination of all three elements. ”


Yeah, the first reason was, of course, a “broad discussion.” Barak apparently believes that he and Netanyahu have frightened Ahmadinejad with “red lines”.

In order not to resemble the one who started a retreat from military plans, Ehud Barak said that "the Iranians are determined to turn into a military nuclear power." Only now it will probably happen “next spring or early summer of next year”.

The Israeli Defense Minister also indicated:

“To be honest, based on my long experience in the Middle East, I am extremely skeptical about the likelihood that (sanctions) will force the Ayatollahs to come together at any stage in the foreseeable future and decide to abandon their intention to follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea and turn into a military nuclear power. "


In short, the Israeli Defense Minister gave America one last chance to improve. For now - wait for the election results. As they used to say in advertising: “Make a groove, eat Twix.”

In the meantime, “Twix” is drinking tea, Mr. Romney can come to power in the United States. At the end of October, this warlike man made it clear to everyone that no consequences of the war with Iran would frighten him and they could not frighten him. He is brave said on debates:

“If I become the president of the United States, I’ll support Israel. If Israel is attacked, we will defend it. Not only by diplomatic measures, but also by military force. Secondly, of course, there can be no question of Iran becoming a nuclear state. This is unacceptable for America. I would also have Ahmadinejad convicted in accordance with the UN Convention on Genocide. I would blame him. ”


And who just inspired this lover of military toys, that someone is planning an attack on Israel?

As for Iran, Ahmadinejad is not going to do anything there and was not going to refuse. Moreover, the Iranian president even boasts with his program, however peaceful.

Last week, Iran officially recognized (first recognized), that is now at the final stage of the installation of centrifuges at the underground facility Ford. This information, which had previously appeared in the press, was confirmed by the head of the Iranian nuclear agency Fereydun Abbasi-Davani himself.

“Iran is completing the launched nuclear project, despite the speculation and negative reports of the Western media,” comrade Abbasi-Davani said at the end of the government meeting.

Iran has completed the installation of the latest 640 uranium centrifuges at an underground plant in Fordo, built inside a mountain. There are 2.800 in total there, but they have not started working yet.

Finally, it must be said that Israel and the United States now have relations.

Professor Bar-Ilan University Eitan Gilboa, believes that the union of the United States and Israel is beneficial to all. He believes this as firmly as Netanyahu believes that the attack of Iran is in the hands of all Arab states.

Giving an interview to the Voice of Russia correspondent, professor сказал:

“The United States is Israel’s most important partner both militarily and diplomatically. The two countries have very close interests in everything that concerns the elimination of common external threats, such as nuclear Iran. Hence, so close attention in Israel to the election of the American president. ”


Of course, intent. Netanyahu and Barak will not wait, when Mitt Romney will sit on the throne in the White House. However, there is not a tron; in the US there is still Congress. You can still say about the "backstage of the world", but already tired.

The professor is somewhat offended by Obama: he has never been to Jerusalem. In short, Obama pushed Israel somewhere - not to the background, not even to the third.

Well, yes, whether the case of Romney, who not only flew to Jerusalem, but also called it the capital of Israel. Here it is.

But the professor is a smart man. Referring to some analysts, he said that in the event of re-election, we would see the new Obama at the helm of America. This will be a wise president who will "radically reconsider his foreign policy."

However, the professor immediately added that the majority of Israelis are hoping for a victory for Romney.

What is it about? All clear. Obama, once again becoming president, will suddenly show himself as a clone of Romney’s election campaign. And then all the aggressive hopes and military aspirations of Mr. Netanyahu and at the same time Eitan Gilboa will come true.

But somehow it is doubtful that Comrade Obama - if the American people choose him - suddenly began to implement Mr. Romney’s election program.

Also in the 2008 election of the 4 of millions of American Jews eligible to vote, 78% voted for Barack Obama. Recent polls show that even today the Jews of America will remain loyal to the democrats.

It would be nice to have a little more peace in the world and a little less war. This, so to speak, is a minimum program.

In the meantime, both Israel and the United States are preparing for a possible war.

Now there are the largest in stories bilateral military cooperation between Washington and Tel Aviv three-week exercises of the forces of the missile and air defense forces called "Severe Challenge - 2012". It is argued that these teachings are not related to the Iranian nuclear issue. Commander of the US contingent Lieutenant-General of the United States Air Force Craig Franklin says:

“Everything in these teachings is subordinated to the improvement of joint American-Israeli capabilities. This is a command army work. It is not connected with any elections or tensions in the Middle East. We are military professionals who train together to solve defensive tasks. ”


In addition to the Israeli defense, the Americans brought the GCS ultra-modern radar system and the Patriot system.

Maneuvers are held in secret mode. According to Israeli media, the exercise will cost the American side 30 millions, and the Israelis 8 millions of dollars.

In parallel, throughout Israel there are rear service exercises. According to the scenario, an earthquake occurred in Israel. Analysts do not allow ambiguous interpretations of the causes of this very “earthquake”. We are talking about possible strikes from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

John Ray, an analyst with NBC News, reports that about 3500 US troops and about 1000 Israeli soldiers are involved in the exercises.

“Whether we like it or not, - пишет a journalist - but these exercises are held in the midst of two election campaigns and, of course, at a time when a suspicious lull occurred in the actions against Iran.


Martin Dempsey, the head of the United Headquarters Command, however, remarked that the military would not want America to be seen as an "accomplice" of the Israeli attack. And the second side, that is, Israel, also expressed a stormy disagreement with such an assessment of the teachings.

But the analyst believes that neither the United States nor Israel can avoid a protracted conflict with Iran.

For Netanyahu, who is facing the elections, these exercises are beneficial because they emphasize that yes, the United States is still an Israeli ally. This Netanyahu can reassure their voters.

Barack Obama is also on hand, because he refutes some too fervent statements by Mitt Romney, who said earlier that the prevention of the Iranian threat to Israel is an American “sacred duty”.

Thus, no matter how much the journalists want “sensation,” the game is now going around elections, and not at all around the Iranian “nuclear problem.” Candidates make statements, voters shake a whisker, sociologists conduct polls and draw ratings, Ahmadinejad reports on the successes of the peaceful Iranian atom. Everything goes on as usual.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
14 comments
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  1. Норд
    Норд 7 November 2012 10: 38
    +3
    The statements of Ehud Barak vividly remind me of crayfish, which are 3 rubles each, but very large yesterday ...
  2. Fox 070
    Fox 070 7 November 2012 10: 42
    +1
    statements by Mitt Romney, who said earlier that preventing the Iranian threat to Israel is an American "sacred duty."

    I wonder what is his "sacredness"?
    1. Alexei
      Alexei 7 November 2012 11: 32
      +1
      Quote: Fox 070
      I wonder what is his "sacredness"?

      And its "sacredness" lies exclusively in the rigid upholding of their own selfish goals.
  3. Kaa
    Kaa 7 November 2012 11: 19
    +2
    What do “wise American heads say about this”: “Iran, which possesses ballistic missiles and Quds units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, can easily block the flow of 8 million barrels of oil to the world market.” "If Iran uses its elements in the region, these pipelines will be very vulnerable, and in the event of a sharp drop in the supply of black gold by 8 million barrels a day, it will not be so easy to compensate for this shortage. We are confident that the oil price will immediately jump to $ 200. per barrel ". (Currently, the price of North Sea Brent oil ranges from $ 110-112 per barrel). Robinson further noted that in this assessment he did not yet take into account the ability of the Iranian authorities to blockade the Strait of Hormuz or the likelihood of a ballistic missile attack on gas liquefaction plants in Qatar. According to him, “if such a blow is dealt, then South Korea and Japan will be left without electricity (since their power plants operate on the supply of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and several other countries). Robinson further noted:“ In my opinion, the likelihood of a military attack is very great. In this case, blocking oil supplies to the world market (for the Iranians) will not be difficult. "These statements reflected the point of view of Jeffrey Kemp, who had previously stated that" Washington would then be under pressure from its allies to end the war as soon as possible. " Fitzgerald, “from a military point of view, a campaign will be required, at least at the level of Desert Storm.” He recalled: “In 1991, we used sending troops to the region, the territory of Saudi Arabia, and in order to get to the territory of Iran, go through Pakistan or Iraq. And I don’t think we’ll get into Iraq again, because in that case we will have to wage a war on two fronts at once. ”Jeffrey Kemp focused on the strategic consequences of an attack on Iran. According to him, if the US and / or Israel begin military action , “one should expect a tough reaction from Russia, China, Brazil and even India. If the US and / or Israel's military attack on Iran lasts more than a day, the world could witness a catastrophic reaction from Russia and, probably, China. Source: http://www.mignews.com
    1. Karish
      Karish 7 November 2012 12: 47
      -1
      Quote: Kaa
      Robinson further noted that in this assessment he did not yet take into account the ability of the Iranian authorities to blockade the Strait of Hormuz or the likelihood of a ballistic missile strike against gas liquefaction plants in Qatar. According to him, “if such a blow is struck, then South Korea and Japan will be left without electricity (since their power plants operate on the supply of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and a number of other countries)

      Of course there will be consequences, but what will remain of Iran in that case? Will he win the war? You want to say that this should not be taken into account in Iran. Pipelines will be restored, the plants will be the same, oil will drop in price, And what about Iran after the war?
      1. Kaa
        Kaa 7 November 2012 16: 06
        0
        Quote: Karish
        And what about Iran after the war?

        And what about the coast of the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf?
  4. gregor6549
    gregor6549 7 November 2012 13: 37
    +2
    People, why break the spears in vain on issues that we did not influence the solution of, we do not influence, and we will not be able to influence. One thing is clear that if Israel is forced to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities (it is forced, and not because it has nothing more to do), then there will be more than enough victims on both sides. It was the understanding of the inevitability and scale of these victims that led Netanyahu to sharply object from the top leaders of the Defense Ministry and Israeli intelligence. Again, believe in that. that such a conflict will be limited to only two parties can only be naive, and therefore everyone, quietly prepare for the most likely and unbelievable scenarios of this conflict. The interests of all the leading states of the world were too closely intertwined in that region. Few want to fight, but everyone wants to control oil pumps
  5. igor67
    igor67 7 November 2012 13: 52
    +1
    According to analysts, the positions of the presidential candidates are very close on the Iranian nuclear issue. Therefore, in this "Iranian case" the personality of the US Supreme Commander-in-Chief does not play a decisive role. Both candidates promised (as did Netanyahu) to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

    - Israel complied with Obama's request

    This is also understood in Jerusalem. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement is a reminder to the future US president that Israel humbly and patiently awaited the end of the presidential race in America, but after its completion it is time not for words but for actions.

    In Israel, according to observers, everything is ready for war. The military repeatedly practiced all the possible options for military operations, both in field exercises and on computers. The other day, media reported that at the Institute for Strategic Studies of Tel Aviv University, leading Israeli security experts and the military simulated the actions of the parties in the early days of the military conflict between Israel and Iran.

    According to the proposed scenario, the war will begin on November 9, 2012, when the Israeli air force will strike at Iran’s leading nuclear facilities. Experts believe that the attack will severely damage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and permanently disable it. According to the scenario, the USA will not be notified of the strike in advance, and the attack will be carried out without American support. According to analysts, the United States will support Israel.

    In Iran, of course, these messages are also followed, but it seems that somehow they do not take them seriously. Interestingly, earlier, Iranian animators shot a children's animated film "Squat", dedicated to the joint Israeli and US attack on the nuclear center in Natanz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps learns of the evil plans of the enemies and prevents the attack even before it starts.

    Cartoon scripts may well be implemented in practice - and not necessarily the way the scriptwriters saw it. American analyst David Rothkopf said earlier that the war in the Middle East will begin as soon as possible. According to him, the United States and Israel are half a step away from an attack on Iran. An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could be delivered in the coming weeks, if not days. Yuri Bondar, the Russian military expert, candidate of military sciences, agrees with him:

    "Israel is ready to strike Iran - final preparations have been made. Technically and politically, the strike may be struck in the near future. The only snag that can prevent this is not the Americans, not even the world community, but some members of the Israeli government and some military personnel. who may not support Prime Minister Netanyahu. "

    Indeed, in all likelihood, the risk of a major war in the Middle East is greater today than ever. Of course, there is still hope that common sense in both Jerusalem and Tehran will win: Iran will make compromises in its nuclear program, and the Israeli prime minister will withdraw his hand, which is above the "button." Another version left two days we'll see!
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 7 November 2012 15: 41
      +3
      Quote: igor67
      Another version left two days to see!


      I recently read such a scenario with a specific date on November 9th. There are generally planned as many as FOUR (crazy to go crazy, that's all Israel can do)) massive air raids. Well, another regular date has appeared. How many have already been since 2010, when they were supposedly ready too, but disagreements within the leadership prevented it.
      Iran has not attacked anyone for a thousand years. Ahmadinejad has a boneless language, but the Iranian leadership is very cautious. Israel does not threaten any Iranian interests, and collective suicide is not an option.
      Netanyahu managed to divert the attention of the whole world from the Palestinian problem and switch it to the Iranian one. Really fantastic success. Obama, in fact, told him: okay, have fun with the settlements as much as you want, but Adults will be engaged in Iran
      For Iran, there is no difference between the Israeli and American attacks: for him it is one and the same. In both cases, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz (through which almost all of the oil exports of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Iran - 40% of all oil in the world transported by sea.) And a full-scale war will follow.
      This is more than enough for the United States not to attack Iran itself and ban it from Israel. And all the howls of Netanyahu are like the cries of a jackal Tabaki from the cartoon about Mowgli. And we will go north (attack Iran, that is)

      1. igor67
        igor67 7 November 2012 15: 46
        +1
        Ascetic,
        Yes, Vladislav I read about four blows, and then for several days Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas respond, but Israel is silent, buries from 500-1000 dead hi
        1. Ascetic
          Ascetic 7 November 2012 16: 40
          +2
          Quote: igor67
          Yes, Vladislav I read about four blows, and then for several days Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas respond, but Israel is silent, buries from 500-1000 dead


          Igor in my opinion that the ayatollahs that Netanyahu are scumbags worthy of each other, The war is certainly beneficial to someone but not to the people of Israel and Iran. And as for Iran’s nuclear weapons, Russia, too, is extremely uninterested in having a nuclear power at its borders, and believe everything, that would not happen. Because Iran has carriers that can pose a threat to the same Moscow.
          1. Insurgent
            Insurgent 8 November 2012 21: 36
            -2
            All this idiot, we strike, when the strike is delivered, they don’t speak
    2. Норд
      Норд 7 November 2012 16: 39
      +1
      igor67

      Quote: "In Israel, according to observers, everything is ready for war."

      Impunity breeds irresponsibility and permissiveness. The bombed reactors in Iraq and Syria created the illusion of permissiveness for some of the narrow-minded individuals in Israel. You think this time nothing will happen to you? Are not you afraid to play too much to death? Or they haven’t fought for a long time - it’s very itchy ... They are ready for war ... Nu-nu ... Or the old Jewish principle works: once a week you need to chop yourself up. So prick and bomb yourself, darlings, why push the world into the abyss? See how the bomb doesn’t fall off.
      In short, everything is according to Aleichem: "If you can't, but you really want to, then you can."
  6. awg75
    awg75 7 November 2012 13: 58
    0
    after the US election --- 2 months and casting Iran into the Stone Age ... it’s kind of insulting, but on the other hand-- to the bulb
  7. gregor6549
    gregor6549 7 November 2012 15: 51
    0
    Nowhere Iran will not be thrown off at any folding. Where he was and will remain. Between the Middle Ages and enlightenment. all the more so no one there is thinking of using vigorous energy for peaceful purposes. Ayatollahs, the darker the people, the more Ayatollahs are more beneficial to them. Well, there used to be a war between Iran and Iraq. Millions perished on both sides. So what? Was this somehow reflected in the standard of living of the average person in both countries? Not particularly affected. And many, not from the middle, did not notice that war. Richer yes, steel
  8. studentmati
    studentmati 8 November 2012 03: 28
    0
    I want to wish patience, patience and courage to the Iranian people and the legitimate president! You really defend your right to coexistence, which you want to rob some .....
  9. Arkan
    Arkan 8 November 2012 04: 21
    0
    Perhaps only one thing can be said: "Beat the Jews - save the planet!" laughing
  10. alex_ololo)
    alex_ololo) 8 November 2012 19: 03
    0
    Well, about the beat of the Jews, you got excited, we are still not Nazis, like Hitler, and it is even better if no one beat anyone, especially when the whole world could go to a dump.