Military Review

East China Sea - the third front of the third world

20
East China Sea - the third front of the third world



Causes and consequences


We have already written about the problem of the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. But it turns out that the conflict is gaining new momentum. And we must start with the fact that the disputed archipelago is called differently in different languages.

Senkaku is its Japanese name. But even in China and Taiwan, where standard Chinese is used, there are also different names. In China it is called Diaoyu, in Taiwan it is called Diaoyutai. This is already disturbing.

Three countries actually claim the archipelago at once. And this despite the fact that it is uninhabited. In fact, these are bare rocks. But its strategic importance cannot be overestimated: the rocks are quite suitable for placing weapons.

De facto, the situation is similar to the status of Crimea, the DPR, the LPR, and a number of other Ukrainian territories that have come under Russian jurisdiction. That is, the islands are formally assigned to Japan, but not all countries recognize this. The most important thing is that the neighbors do not recognize this: China considers the islands to be its own, but, moreover, even Taiwan, which is unequivocally oriented to the West, also claims them.

On the one hand, this does not prevent Taiwan from cooperating with NATO, which Japan is a member of, on the other hand, the tension between the two clearly pro-Western countries does not disappear anywhere. However, given the increasingly aggravated relations between NATO Turkey and the other members of the alliance, this should not surprise anyone.

The older generation still remembers the case of Deniz Gezmish, who was hanged for a terrorist attack on an American military unit in Turkey. And those who are younger must have watched a movie about it, and also admired the adventures of Polat Alemdar from the movie "Valley of the Wolves" with clearly anti-American overtones.


But one thing is Gezmish and his executed accomplices, and another thing is the confrontation of three states at once because of some rocks in the middle of the sea. And obviously no one is going to fish there, as it was in past centuries. They are needed for others.

Japan squeezed out - China returns


Conflicts began immediately after the conquest of the islands by Japan in 1895. Then a new participant in the dispute appeared - Taiwan. Initially, it was about fish resources and potential oil and gas reserves. But economically practical, the Japanese did not really want to exploit these resources.

Modern military technologies make it possible to use these islands not for economic, but for military purposes. Considering China's construction of anti-submarine barriers in the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands can be considered another frontier of the country's maritime militarization.

Historical China's memory keeps memories of the Second World War very well, when Japan "checked in" in the Chinese border regions no worse than the Germans in Belarus. Therefore, it is hardly worth waiting for any attempts at China's dialogue with either Japan or Taiwan, whose sovereignty it does not recognize.

Implicit Russian trace


In autumn, another aggravation of the conflict took place. Then two ships of the Chinese coast guard entered the territorial waters of Japan. There, what is most interesting, a Russian frigate entered.

Is this another Japanese fake against the backdrop of the ongoing dispute over the Kuril Islands, or is it really that the Russian General Staff inadequately assessed its forces and decided to wage war on two fronts: is Ukraine not enough? Although formally the Russians and the Chinese did not violate the inviolability of the Japanese border.

But according to international maritime laws, approaching territorial waters by 12 nautical miles is equivalent to an invasion. Both the Chinese and the Russian sides could not but know and understand this. It is another matter, however, that such laws of maritime law were once lobbied by the United States, but this does not change the situation.

What is written with a pen cannot really be cut down with an axe. Naturally, when all this happened, Tokyo filed a diplomatic note with Beijing. It is not entirely clear why Moscow did not submit it, but, apparently, against the backdrop of the “Kuril conflict”, Japan does not really want to aggravate the situation. Who else is there to sell right-hand drive "car-designers"?

Mercantile interests can sometimes prevail over patriotic ones. But the Japanese Ministry of Defense, in a statement the day after the invasion, also mentioned Russia. True, in a very mild form: it seems like, quite possibly, the Russian warship was moving away from the epicenter of the typhoon, and therefore approached the Chinese.

Moreover, other details of the incident were revealed. The Japanese themselves admitted that a Japanese poaching vessel was operating in the border zone. About the Chinese, the Japanese side hinted that they were catching him. That is, the pre-war situation is canceled?

The ubiquitous Americans


Yes, it was not there. American experts immediately delivered their verdict: China and Russia are protesting against the US-Japanese alliance, and, of course, this is connected with the NWO in Ukraine.

In fact, with such statements, albeit unsupported by actions, we are talking about a multilateral military conflict in the region. Theoretically, on the one hand, Russia and China can participate in it, on the other hand, Japan, the USA and Taiwan. South Korea's position is unclear, but it doesn't take a great strategist to figure out which side it will take. Certainly not Russian or Chinese.


Japan is currently the main Asian ally of the United States. China, in fact, is not going to support either Russian interests in the region or American ones - it is for itself, the population, the army and fleet and that's enough. Taiwan is essentially a puppet in the hands of NATO. A kind of "decorative China".

In this situation, anything can happen, up to a full-fledged war. Another major war in the world - until recently, no one imagined that the Russians would grapple with the same Slavs - the Ukrainians. And in the region, the population is different both in cultures and in mentality, the Japanese, the Chinese, the Americans, and, finally, God forbid, the Russians, they don’t understand each other without an interpreter.

Prospects for Russia


In May of this year, Chinese and Russian fighters in the area of ​​the islands already performed exercises, however, without entering Japanese territory. At the same time, talks on regional security were being held in Tokyo at that time, in which China and India, friendly to Russia, also participated.

Russia is certainly behaving irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict from which it is unlikely to get anything. But another thing is that the further strengthening of NATO forces in the East China Sea will not bring anything good to Russia either.

Therefore, apparently, the best way out for the Russian General Staff is to take an example from the ancient strategy: if you want peace, prepare for war. But it’s better not to get into it too quickly: as we have already found out, China is a rather dangerous “ally”.
Author:
Photos used:
ocdn.eu, news-postseven.com, road2riches.ru
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  1. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 22 December 2022 05: 03
    0
    Russia, of course, behaves irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict

    what Nothing like that ... our frigate just peacefully sailed by.
    And the Chinese can be advised the same thing that they advise us in the Ukrainian conflict. smile
    Solve the problem diplomatically peacefully.
    And then look what cunning.
    It means that we are offered to put up with the Nazis of Ukraine, but they want to deal with pro-American Taiwan by force.
    1. Civil
      Civil 22 December 2022 08: 08
      0
      Something I did not notice that the PRC in the last 40 years climbed somewhere to fight. People are busy with the economy. And there are amazing results. From this a strong army and foreign policy successes.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 22 December 2022 05: 22
    +7
    On the one hand, this does not prevent Taiwan from cooperating with NATO, which Japan is a member of.
    Japan is not a member of NATO. Yes, there are not NATO bases in Japan, but US bases. NATO and the US are not synonymous at all, so the presence of US bases on the Japanese islands has nothing to do with US membership in NATO.
    1. Doccor18
      Doccor18 22 December 2022 06: 50
      +6
      hi good morning!
      Quote: parusnik
      Japan is not a member of NATO.

      Some strange article came out, don't you think?
      It is very doubtful that a serious outbreak will break out in the East. No benefits, only losses for everyone (except the Democrats). But ... if we assume for a second that it will break out, then under no circumstances will our country be able to stay on the sidelines. Too much is now tied to the east, and there will only be more ...
      1. Aleksandr21
        Aleksandr21 22 December 2022 08: 15
        0
        Quote: Doccor18
        It is very doubtful that a serious outbreak will break out in the East.


        Someday it will flare up, of course, not today and perhaps not even tomorrow, but ... China is growing and rearming, Japan has returned to the path of militarism, Taiwan - like it or not, but you have to spend money on defense ...

        And regarding the strange message of the article, I actually caught the thought of the authors:

        Russia is certainly behaving irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict from which it is unlikely to get anything.


        those. taking into account the forces and capabilities of the Pacific Fleet, arranging a "test - the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces" is not the best idea .... even taking into account the help of an "ally" who is not sure that he will come to the rescue. It’s another matter when the Japanese Navy invades our territorial waters (to the same Kuril Islands), yes, we simply have to react and expel the violators ... otherwise it’s not worth pulling the mustache, a stronger enemy (excluding nuclear weapons).

        If there was a commotion around the disputed islands, more neighbors would join in (Vietnam, Indonesia and others .... there are many islands, many disputes in the East China Sea) and we definitely shouldn’t go there.

        There is also a message about Taiwan, they say, let the PRC decide its own "internal issues" and here I also agree 100%, there is no special help from the PLA in the Donbass ... I hope that ours will maintain the same line of behavior regarding Taiwan and will call on the parties for dialogue and world peace.
        1. Doccor18
          Doccor18 22 December 2022 08: 28
          +4
          Quote: Aleksandr21
          And regarding the strange message of the article, I actually caught the thought of the authors:

          Russia is certainly behaving irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict from which it is unlikely to get anything.

          But where is Russia "breaking in"? They just want to support (serve) the Chinese, because now more and more of our trade depends on them. Everyone understands everything perfectly, incl. and the Japanese, and therefore limited themselves to protocol "antics" ...
          1. bath
            bath 23 December 2022 12: 08
            0
            Don't you know that these countries at the beginning of the war imposed sanctions against Russia at the behest of the United States?

            If you team up with China to contain them, is that an attempt to please China without regard to your own interests?
            1. Doccor18
              Doccor18 23 December 2022 12: 43
              0
              Quote from: wanna
              If you team up with China

              Is China uniting with someone? Didn't hear. Here are their banks and some companies refuse to work with us, it was...
        2. Pantsuy
          Pantsuy 23 December 2022 19: 06
          -1
          Quote: Aleksandr21
          taking into account the forces and capabilities of the Pacific Fleet, arranging a "check - the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces" is not a good idea.

          And what to check there - and so any knowledgeable person understands that our Pacific Fleet against the Japanese fleet is like a mouse against a cat. Even in the era of Tsushima, there was no such shameful imbalance.
      2. kor1vet1974
        kor1vet1974 22 December 2022 08: 47
        +1
        Some strange article came out, don't you think?
        Around, one NATO.
      3. Mihail0221
        Mihail0221 22 December 2022 08: 52
        +2
        Some strange article came out, don't you think?
        Good morning. hi Now there are a lot of strange articles on VO. What is it for...?
        Here are some more suspicious phrases:
        Is it really that the Russian General Staff inadequately assessed its forces and decided to wage war on two fronts: Ukraine is not enough, or what?

        Here is another phrase
        Russia is certainly behaving irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict from which it is unlikely to get anything.

        And here's the last for a snack, so to speak
        But it’s better not to get into it too quickly: as we have already found out, China is a rather dangerous “ally”

        What did we find out? Where? When? request why in a pejorative form of the phrase.
        What am I talking about. Another article is another provocation against Russia.
  3. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 22 December 2022 06: 01
    -2
    Quote: parusnik
    Japan is not a member of NATO. Yes, there are not NATO bases in Japan, but US bases. NATO and the US are not synonymous at all, so the presence of US bases on the Japanese islands has nothing to do with US membership in NATO.

    What little things ... is it stopping the Japanese from helping the Ukronazi regime and imposing sanctions against Russia. smile
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 December 2022 06: 29
    +3
    Russia, of course, behaves irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict
    What is Russia's irresponsibility and how does it "get" into a conflict that is still exclusively political? Is carrying out previously planned joint exercises a "climbing" into a conflict? This means that the United States holding joint exercises with South Korea and Japan is normal, and holding Russia-China exercises is irresponsible. Authors, do you think that this is an objective and normal assessment of what is happening?
  5. KCA
    KCA 22 December 2022 07: 11
    0
    Yes, everyone loves to tease a potential enemy, was there a lot of indignation in the "civilized world" when a British ship got into our waterways, or when an American nuclear submarine got in?
  6. kor1vet1974
    kor1vet1974 22 December 2022 08: 28
    +3
    But another thing is that the further strengthening of NATO forces in the East China Sea
    And who is there in the East China Sea, a NATO member?
  7. far diu
    far diu 22 December 2022 10: 32
    0
    If it bombs there, then capital from Asia (financial, industrial, human) will be actively dumped in the United States. As a result, the US will simply solve all its problems at the expense of Eurasia.

    I think in China, not idiots in the government are sitting to make such a gift to the Americans, otherwise if they do this (they start an invasion of Taiwan), then by 2030 the United States will be at its peak and China will not live then.
  8. runway-1
    runway-1 22 December 2022 14: 31
    +1
    this does not prevent Taiwan from cooperating with NATO, which Japan is a member of
    ?? belay
  9. ODERVIT
    ODERVIT 23 December 2022 10: 16
    +1
    Maybe I missed something, but it would be nice to get an explanation on Japan's membership in NATO. Is this a significant "blunder" for a serious publication?
  10. bath
    bath 23 December 2022 12: 04
    0
    Russia is certainly behaving irresponsibly, getting into a regional conflict from which it is unlikely to get anything.


    If it were a time of peace, you might think of your national interest in such terms.

    But now these countries or regions are blacklisted by Russia's "List of Unfriendly States".
  11. Terrible ensign
    Terrible ensign 25 December 2022 10: 59
    0
    Hmm, when did Japan join NATO?..