Uncertain future and known risks: rumors about the delivery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine
Patriot complex on the march
Over the past months, the Kyiv regime has been dreaming of obtaining modern foreign anti-aircraft systems, incl. the advertised Patriot missile system. But all requests to provide American technology were naturally not fulfilled. However, the situation could change, and now the foreign press reports that the United States can supply its air defense systems, and in the very near future.
Offers and rejections
The possibility of the Patriots getting into Ukraine has been discussed almost since February, but no real measures have yet been taken. Moreover, it was directly said about the impossibility of transferring such equipment to the Kyiv regime. For example, at the end of November, another exchange of views on this issue took place between representatives of different countries.
At the beginning of the twentieth of November, the Polish Ministry of Defense came up with an interesting idea. It offered Germany to transfer several of its Patriot air defense systems to the Kyiv regime to strengthen Ukrainian air defense. The German military department predictably refused, and also recalled that such complexes are intended only for NATO countries and should only work in the organization's common air defense system.
However, a few days later, on November 29, the American Bloomberg news agency, citing its sources, reported that the NATO leadership was still studying the possibility of transferring Patriots and a number of other systems to the Kyiv regime. The probability of a positive decision was assessed as high.
On the same day, Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder once again announced that the United States was not going to transfer its Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. Assistance in the field of air defense is provided through the supply of other modern systems, some of which have already come into the possession of Ukrainian formations.
A week after that, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced new plans. Now it is proposed to transfer a certain number of German air defense systems to Polish territory and place them near the Ukrainian border. On December 12, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that the process of deploying the Patriots would begin in the coming days.
The issue is being resolved
Already on December 13, the following news about the hypothetical supply of air defense systems to Ukraine. The American television channel CNN, citing its sources in the state leadership, claims that the US presidential administration is still preparing plans to transfer Patriot products to the Kyiv regime.
At the time of publication, the preparation of plans was in its final stages. The finished document will have to be approved by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden. CNN sources believe that they will allow the transmission of the complexes. The final decision can be made and announced as early as this week, i.е. until December 18th.
Details of the proposed delivery are not given. Modification of the complex allegedly planned for delivery, the number and composition of batteries, etc. unknown. The principles of transfer are also not specified. The equipment can be removed from service with the American army or provided by one of the European states.
Attempts by the press to obtain an official comment were generally unsuccessful. P. Ryder actually avoided answering, saying that the Pentagon had nothing to say about this. Then on December 14, the presidential administration announced that air defense systems would not be included in the next package of military technical assistance. Such statements are ambiguous, and therefore it is impossible to understand exactly what the American authorities had in mind.
AN/MPQ-65A detection radar
Uncertain situation
Despite all the discussions, requests and demands, to date the Kyiv regime has not received the Patriot air defense system. There were deliveries of other anti-aircraft systems, but modern American-made complexes have not yet been transferred. Moreover, it has been repeatedly said that it is impossible to provide such assistance for one reason or another.
However, the situation may change. Recently, Germany and Poland agreed on the transfer and deployment of air defense systems at a new location. Such measures are associated with the current hostilities in Ukraine and the need to strengthen the air defense of NATO's eastern borders. In addition, now the American press claims that the United States is ready to send its air defense systems directly to Ukraine.
Information about the new plans of the American leadership has not yet been confirmed, and it is unclear how true it is. It is quite possible that this is just another "sensation" from a publication with a dubious reputation, and the United States is not going to share its missile systems. Nevertheless, another option cannot be ruled out - Washington may indeed be planning such assistance through air defense.
If plans to send a Patriot to Ukraine are really being worked out, then a number of questions arise. First of all, it is interesting why the US has dramatically changed its position on supplies. I would also like to know how many complexes are ready to allocate, how the supply of materiel will be organized and operation will be organized. It cannot be ruled out that the "Patriots" will not do without American military specialists.
The Problem of Efficiency
Finally, the effectiveness of the combat use of air defense systems, allegedly planned for delivery, is questionable. In general, the characteristics of the Patriot complex of the main modifications are well known. The results of using this technique in various conflicts are also known. All this already allows making preliminary estimates.
Launcher on duty
"Patriot" in all versions is a medium-range air defense system designed to cover important objects and areas with long-term work in one position. The development of the first version of such a complex was completed in the early eighties, and in 1982 it entered service. Subsequently, several upgrades were carried out, and in 2001 the last modification of the PAC-3 with expanded anti-aircraft and anti-missile capabilities began service.
The air defense system includes AN / MPQ-53 and AN / MPQ-65 radar stations. They are designed to detect and track aerodynamic and ballistic targets at ranges of at least 150-180 km. Data from the radar is sent to the battery command post; it may also receive information from other sources. Support is provided for 125 targets with missile guidance on 6 of them.
The air defense system includes several towed launchers with an inclined launch. Patriot uses MIM-104 anti-aircraft guided missiles, four per installation, and ERINT anti-missiles (16 units each). For aerodynamic purposes, the missile launch range is up to 100 km, altitude - up to 25 km. The launch range for a ballistic target is 45 km, the height is up to 20 km.
"Patriot" is intended to combat aviation the enemy, as well as to intercept ballistic missiles and a variety of high-precision weapons. During tests and exercises, the complex repeatedly demonstrated its capabilities and confirmed the design characteristics.
However, the complex has drawbacks that negatively affect the results of combat use. So, during the Gulf War and during the recent events on the Arabian Peninsula, Patriot air defense systems of previous modifications showed low efficiency when working on ballistic and complex aerodynamic targets. It is alleged that in the latest modification of the PAC-3 these issues were resolved, but this has not yet been confirmed in a combat situation.
MIM-104 rocket launch
The ability of the Patriot to effectively deal with Russian aircraft or missiles raises doubts. The fact is that in recent decades, this air defense system was considered as one of the main threats - and its capabilities were taken into account when creating new equipment and weapons. Accordingly, domestic samples have one or another protection against the American air defense system, and are also capable of delivering retaliatory strikes.
As the practice of recent months has shown, the Russian army has a whole range of various means for destroying enemy air defenses. Individual assets or entire complexes can be destroyed by aviation using various missiles, cruise missiles and new types of UAVs, as well as operational-tactical systems. All these means can be applied to the "Patriots", and not without success.
An important factor in this context will be the number of air defense systems delivered and their placement. A small number of complexes will not allow Ukraine to seriously strengthen its air defense and create a previously announced layered system. At the same time, it will not prevent our reconnaissance from searching for the firing positions of the complexes, and striking weapons from hitting them.
Reputation blow
Despite the latest news, the supply of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine is still in doubt. The Kyiv regime wishes to receive such equipment as soon as possible, but the position of official Washington is not yet clear. Obviously, he wants to help an ally and provide him with certain weapons, but such assistance should be consistent with the goals and objectives of the United States, and also not lead to risks.
Apparently, at the moment the Pentagon does not have "extra" air defense systems that could be painlessly transferred to Ukraine. Other countries, too, will not agree to weaken their defenses in order to help a foreign regime. In addition, there are image risks. Advertised foreign weapons do not show themselves in Ukraine in the best way and only cope well with the role of targets for Russian systems. It is unlikely that the US plans to spoil the reputation of its most famous anti-aircraft system and risk future sales.
- Ryabov Kirill
- US Department of Defense, Wikimedia Commons
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