Military Review

Forecasts-2023: says and predicts Bank of

47
Forecasts-2023: says and predicts Bank of



Listen without obeying


"Military Review" has repeatedly provided its pages for not always accurate, but invariably bright forecasts of foreign analysts. And some of them, for example, Steen Jacobsen from Saxo Bank, almost never missed ("Shocking" forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich, Trump will not choose).

However, his prediction of the “perfect storm”, which has become legendary in its own way, eventually turned into a pandemic and a special operation.

What will happen next, hardly anyone will say with absolute accuracy, but it seems worth listening to those who made mistakes only due to insurmountable circumstances.

So, before ending everything with the Saxo apocalypse, let's see what analysts from large structures have already promised us - Bloomberg, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and the like. It is clearly too early to dive into the details - the time for global forecasts has not yet come, but ... The fact that the leading strategists of the main, at least by name, overseas bank - of America, are already recommending investors to stop buying American shares and take profits, which does it mean anything.


Especially against the backdrop of countless stock exchange records that no longer inspire anyone, since this is nothing more than a bubble, and the protracted growth of the dollar. The latter is simply scary, since it almost guarantees a loss in all trade and sanctions wars, increases the cost of public debt, and, moreover, takes place in conditions of unprecedented inflation for the United States.

On this occasion, it cannot be said that if for developing economies, such as in Russia, balancing under the mark of 10% annual inflation is like a pellet for an elephant, then for a developed economy, as in the States, this is already a real danger. When you can fall into hyperinflation and just do not come back.

Recession or war?


The way out of such a financial and economic impasse can be either a global crisis with the restructuring of everything and everyone, or war. Not necessarily big and not necessarily small and victorious. By the way, is that why Russia was so diligently forced into a special operation in order to solve all its own problems through a foreign war?

However, this is still not about that. Here about the weaknesses of the US economy, the leading, and even the most advanced in the world. It is not advanced, but skewed, and not only towards the most advanced industries, although there are big doubts about this, but also towards services, and not the most necessary ones, if they are ready to be honest to the end there, overseas.

Agree, what's the point in legal and financial services, as such. With their help, if only it is easier to deal with a neighbor or competitor, but neither one nor the other gives anything real to a person. If only a solid, even excessively solid increase in the country's GDP.

That's exactly what they give. Yes, and even half the world is hooked on the same services. Compared to them, legal and financial - British insurance, which is now on everyone's lips - the most necessary and certainly in-demand services. Let's not talk about logistics at all - even in the USSR there was always a "respected person" for the warehouse manager.

Returning to the stock exchanges, primarily the New York one, we note that our analysts do not admit that the strong growth of the indices is not at all an indicator of the brilliant prospects for the economy, but nothing more than a bearish rebound. The term was used by Mike Wilson of Bank of America. He has no doubt that the time has come for sales, and it is very important that they do not lead to a collapse.

The S&P500 index, the most significant for all analysts, will fall to the level of 3 points no later than the Christmas holidays. The holidays, by the way, may well play the role of a damper in case of a bad start to 000. However, this does not negate the craving of experts for truly terrible forecasts.

Scary, even scarier


The scariest one will, as you might expect, come from Steen Jacobsen, whose Saxo Bank is doing quite well thanks to his ability to foresee horrors. However, we will complete our short review with them, but for now, the floor is for other experts, as well as for reports from companies from the real sector.

In the real sector, everyone or almost everyone is simply preparing for mass layoffs. This has already been announced at the headquarters of PepsiCo, and we are talking, among other things, about cleaning the offices, and this is almost the worst sign.

No less deplorable are the prospects for the auto industry, where Ford started talking about plans to lay off up to 40% of employees. Where the current Democratic administration plans to attach them, it would be nice to ask the best of the anti-crisis managers in stories - Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Also, by the way, a Democrat in the party.

But he died a long time ago and did not leave direct recommendations, since he was a man of action. It is also bad in the most advanced industries, where the United States is among the leaders. For example, the well-known Amazon, with its supposedly deep business diversification, is already in full swing with a campaign of previously planned layoffs.

Further without details - a list, and only those who do not hide anything. Ilonmask's Tesla and Twitter, and Intel, along with Apple, as well as Google, Microsoft and others, from those that are smaller, did not remain silent about the layoffs.

It is not entirely clear why information about layoffs in American giants is defiantly ignored on Russian stock exchanges, while continuing to invest "in America." It is unlikely that they are such patriots, but apparently they think that if there is a rollback, then without fail with a subsequent renaissance.

For those who do not want to be scared, such specific information - the volume of transactions in foreign securities on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange in November amounted to 3,5 billion dollars. For the information of panicking and all-weeping people, this is 41,65% more than in October. Optimists, and nothing more.

Not all that is gold


And then let them only try to complain that they were not warned. They warned us, and how, especially from Saxo Bank, which we respect. They decided to speak out about a whole series of unlikely and underestimated events in 2023. And they started, oddly enough, with gold.


It seemed that who cares about him now, but let us remind you that a more unsinkable protective asset in the world has not yet been invented. Let it not rise in price, but it will not fall in price very much, that's for sure. Saxo Bank has little doubt that increased demand for gold in 2023 will push the gold price up from its current $1 to $800 an ounce.

And then even better - geopolitical instability will not go anywhere, but will also be accompanied by powerful inflationary pressure. Now the world's leading economies are taking all sorts of measures to mitigate the negative effect of rising commodity prices, but this will not help next year.


Deferred inflation may turn out to be much more dangerous than prolonged inflation for months and even years, which the bank's analysts do not doubt. Against such a background, the conservative policy of states will consist precisely in fleeing to gold and reorienting from the financial sector of the economy to the real one.

Not only the chief Saxo economist Steen Jacobsen, but also former US President Republican Donald Trump also warned about this.
Author:
Photos used:
investing.com, autoparus.by, pikabu.ru
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  1. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 11 December 2022 05: 47
    +9
    I don't have dollar savings... so don't give a damn about all these forecasts and the US itself with its banks.
    Let them boil themselves in their own juice.
    Welcoming the New Year with the wish of a speedy collapse of the US economy... which is the source of the troubles of the peoples of our planet.
    1. fa2998
      fa2998 11 December 2022 09: 34
      +7
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      the US itself with its banks is deeply spit.

      As soon as there are problems with our economy, our press immediately begins to look for negativity abroad. I think it would distract people. And with the US economy, it has been "buried" for 2 centuries, already who buried themselves in the graveyard. hi
    2. dauria
      dauria 11 December 2022 10: 20
      +7
      I don't have dollar savings...

      Sheep don't either. However, the wool is sheared from them punctually. "At least a tuft of wool from a black sheep" wassat They will find a way to pluck us, don't worry.
      1. Lech from Android.
        Lech from Android. 11 December 2022 11: 16
        +2
        Everyone is sheared now... both sheep and wolves...
        Wolves also cry. smile
        I liked how they cut Friedman's hair... but he resisted so much, so he resisted ... anyway, he turned out to be without wool, that is, greenery ... hehe, the bankrupt was naked.
    3. Plate
      Plate 11 December 2022 15: 42
      +2
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      I don't have dollar savings... so don't give a damn about all these forecasts and the US itself with its banks.

      The USA is still the center of the world economic system. Even if you do not have dollar savings, you either directly or indirectly use imports, so the collapse of the United States will definitely affect you. And on me.
      But that doesn't change your wish.
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      Welcoming the New Year with the wish of a speedy collapse of the US economy.
  2. Leader_Barmaleev
    Leader_Barmaleev 11 December 2022 06: 06
    +12
    Well, eternal values ​​are returning to their place - salt, matches, kerosene, cartridges. I don’t have savings in foreign currency, but I have a large plot of land and a full safe of weapons of various lengths and calibers - everything is legal, everything has permits. We survived perestroika with a shootout, and we will survive this minor trouble, and there, you see, we will improve relations with both the Schengen Emirates and Apacheia. In short, we will live good
    1. Lech from Android.
      Lech from Android. 11 December 2022 06: 35
      +3
      The main weapon of an optimist is a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
    2. Raccoon Raccoon
      Raccoon Raccoon 11 December 2022 10: 54
      +3
      Wow, thanks for the reminder! It will be necessary, as soon as I receive a pension, to drop into the store for cartridges. And let the wife grumble, the extra hundredth 12/76 bandolier does not pull. Expensive, of course, but the food will remain.
      1. Leader_Barmaleev
        Leader_Barmaleev 11 December 2022 11: 50
        +1
        Expensive, of course, but the food will remain.
        Now it seems that it’s expensive, but when the time comes for a varied and interesting one, there WILL ALWAYS BE FOR FOOD. wink
        1. gromit
          gromit 11 December 2022 12: 57
          +5
          It will not.
          You have legal trunks.

          Opening the state of emergency law:
          e) ... temporary seizure of weapons and ammunition from citizens is allowed ....

          So by the interesting time you will be unarmed, or under investigation for trying to "lose" the gun. And possibly shot.
          1. Leader_Barmaleev
            Leader_Barmaleev 11 December 2022 13: 25
            +1
            So by the interesting time you will be unarmed, or under investigation for trying to "lose" the gun. And possibly shot.
            As one good friend of mine cosmogonist says (a drunkard, of course, but uuuuum) - since the Universe is infinite, everything is possible in it. And he's right. But we still don’t let things take their course - in the event of a big nix, we completely organically become either a structure of the people’s militia (not to be confused with the police), or a territorial defense cell, which is less interesting, because all old farts. Specifically, I can head a burn hospital for civilians until the age of 75, but here it’s easier to shoot yourself right away. In general, options are possible.
            1. gromit
              gromit 11 December 2022 16: 10
              +1
              Not only will you not let things take their course.

              We look at how the situation developed in those countries where the nix took place. Africa, Latin America, Middle East.
              All positions for regulating order, distributing the benefits of civilization, humanitarian aid and, accordingly, arbitrariness, violence and robbery were occupied by the same people as before the nix.
              Former military, former cops, former officials.

              We have the military, the National Guard, police, MChS, Kadyrov, Wagner.

              Which of them does your "people's militia" want to deprive of the difficult burden of maintaining order?

              There are few proletariat and peasants in the country, but there are many security officials. And they all want to eat well.
              "They shed their blood for you!"
              1. Silhouette
                Silhouette 16 December 2022 19: 39
                +1
                Quote from Gromit
                There are few proletariat and peasants in the country, but there are many security officials.

                There is no proletariat in the country, and the peasants have long since grown old or degenerated. A proletarian is a person who has nothing but qualifications. This is according to Marx. If there is property (an apartment, a house, a car), then it is no longer a proletarian, but a private owner who has something to lose besides his life. It's time for you, my friend, to get out of the captivity of Marx's illusions and delusions. And we do not fool our brains.
          2. dementor873
            dementor873 12 December 2022 01: 02
            0
            If during mobilization everyone traveled, then during an emergency, all the authorities will drape abroad, who will deal with this? They are not able to issue subpoenas normally, but here you have to go by address.
            1. gromit
              gromit 12 December 2022 08: 15
              +2
              Fuck you know the history of your native country.

              Do you think radios were confiscated in the USSR during the Second World War by going to addresses and begging?
              Each receiver before the war was subject to registration and on June 25 they simply announced:
              "failure will be considered under the laws of war"
              And handed over as cute.
    3. dauria
      dauria 11 December 2022 10: 58
      +1
      I don’t have savings in foreign currency, but I have a large plot of land and a full safe of weapons of various lengths and calibers - everything is legal, everything has permissions

      Cut the flies right now. Even Jews in civilian life figured out to unite in detachments, and not to protect only their cellar with a double-barreled gun.
      Those who come to gut you will come in a big gang. And they will even call their gang "the most just state."
      1. Leader_Barmaleev
        Leader_Barmaleev 11 December 2022 11: 47
        0
        So you may not believe me, but firstly - I am a Jew, and secondly - a group of comrades is already a close-knit, quite a fighting unit and is actively working not to cut down flies, but to involve like-minded people. And thirdly - we do not have double-barreled shotguns, except perhaps as elements of collections. So we will survive this trouble winked
        1. dauria
          dauria 11 December 2022 11: 53
          +2
          is actively working not on cutting down flies, but on involving like-minded people.

          Look, do not "work out" for a prison term, like-minded people. laughing This already looks like an "organization", revolutionaries are pinball players.
          1. Leader_Barmaleev
            Leader_Barmaleev 11 December 2022 12: 07
            +1
            Everything is thought out wink There are no meetings, no hierarchy, no campaigning, we coordinate all movements with the head of the Civil Defense of Emergency Situations, on a voluntary basis we teach schoolchildren how to survive in extreme situations, for which we have all sorts of candy wrappers from the mountains and regional administrations. We do not advertise ourselves and do not promote ourselves, but we do not keep quiet either. So everything is fine - we are not revolutionaries, we are the very good that always defeats all evil. And goodness must be with fists.
          2. bk0010
            bk0010 11 December 2022 12: 25
            +3
            Quote: dauria
            It already looks like an "organization"
            The police and the FSB also look like an organization, but for some reason they are not imprisoned.
  3. Doccor18
    Doccor18 11 December 2022 06: 22
    +6
    Forecasts-2023: says and predicts Bank of

    What can the bank predict there? The caviar on the banker's sandwich will begin to run out, and the noose will tighten even more on most...
    Against such a background, the conservative policy of states will consist precisely in fleeing to gold and reorienting from the financial sector of the economy to the real one.

    To gold, of course, but back from financial-speculative to real is doubtful. It is much easier to close, sell, move a factory to the cheap south / east than rebuild the industry in your own country ... Such global injections will pay off for decades. And who can now predict what the world will be like in twenty years..?
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 11 December 2022 08: 08
      +1
      Quote: Doccor18
      The caviar on the banker's sandwich will start to run low

      Let the zucchini be planted. There will also be caviar. )))
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 11 December 2022 08: 10
        +6
        Quote: Egoza
        let zucchini

        Are they bankers? laughing
        They will most likely transfer everyone else to squash. By the way, the process is already in full swing ...
  4. Nikolay Malyugin
    Nikolay Malyugin 11 December 2022 06: 32
    +2
    The bourgeoisie has no epithets. Be it in America, in Africa, or in Antarctica. It's just that the American bourgeoisie has more experience. A recession is a step that may not be. And then a fall. Perhaps with consequences. It is hard to say which bourgeoisie will win in the world. But there will be many jubilations.
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 11 December 2022 06: 49
    +11
    She is not advanced, but skewed
    In Russia, firm and slender. In the New Year, not 25 jobs will probably be created, but as many as 000. Like a Phoenix from the ashes, the province will be reborn. smile
    1. Lech from Android.
      Lech from Android. 11 December 2022 06: 52
      +1
      Quote: parusnik
      The new year will probably create not 25 jobs, but as many as 000. Like a Phoenix from the ashes, the province will be reborn.

      For the Chinese, right?
      For them, 50 million is a conversation about nothing.
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 11 December 2022 07: 02
        +9
        No, for the Russians, 25 jobs have already been created for them. smile
        1. Pilot
          Pilot 11 December 2022 07: 53
          +11
          Quote: parusnik
          No, for the Russians, 25 jobs have already been created for them. smile
          No, so far they have created only for 300 thousand .. God forbid, if such “workers” are created for 25 million, it’s better that we somehow find employment ourselves, without the care of those in power.
          1. parusnik
            parusnik 11 December 2022 07: 58
            +5
            God forbid if such places are created for 25 million.
            God forbid if people will work, but for now, 300 will be enough, why spoil? smile
      2. bk0010
        bk0010 11 December 2022 12: 26
        +1
        Quote: Lech from Android.
        For them, 50 million is a conversation about nothing.
        What 50 million? Just 50.
    2. Dimy4
      Dimy4 11 December 2022 09: 37
      +3
      ...no longer 25 jobs, but as many as 000.

      Is this... 50 million or only fifty? I judge by my area and the factory where I worked. So don't take this question as a complete dupaka. I judge by our life in the outback.
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 11 December 2022 10: 23
        +4
        I put a smiley, I put it .. I also live in the outback, like mushrooms after the rain .. various shops are closing, people don’t have money to make purchases .. Merchants leave the market, but these are trifles, I just keep quiet about other things.
  6. yuriy55
    yuriy55 11 December 2022 08: 30
    +8
    As long as the dollar is the world's means of payment, and the ruble will be punched in the face, we will continue to live like those "father" and "son" - in ... the Motherland ...
    Total global oil production in 2021 averaged 77 barrels per day.

    With an average oil price of $60 per barrel, the Fed can easily print $4 billion a day - they continue to buy/sell oil for dollars, don't they?! And on the Moscow and St. Petersburg stock exchanges, prices for Russian goods are set ... No one will tell you in what currency?
    Don't care about the forecasts of the Banks of...2023 is a pre-election year. All Russians should receive the most complete assurances of the lowest respect for the authorities towards the people ... For the next 12 years of “bourgeois happiness” are at stake ....
  7. Illanatol
    Illanatol 11 December 2022 09: 20
    +1
    Quote: yuriy55
    With an average oil price of $60 per barrel, the Fed can easily print $4 billion a day - they continue to buy/sell oil for dollars, don't they?!


    Not this way. First, oil is a consumable material that is disposed of rather quickly (turning into exhaust, for the most part).
    Secondly, the main issuer of dollars (as well as other currencies) is not the Fed, but the banking system as a whole. Thirdly, such a money supply is only 1.7 trillion dollars a year. Given the total cost of all payment instruments (including derivatives) - a drop in the ocean.
  8. Dmitry Karabanov
    Dmitry Karabanov 11 December 2022 09: 29
    +3
    With a puppet and the IMF - Nabiullino-Siluan - in Russia it will definitely only get worse. Yes, under Stalin there was no such garbage!
  9. Maks1995
    Maks1995 11 December 2022 09: 45
    0
    In general, again, "experts" predicting "the dollar will collapse tomorrow" got into a puddle. With impunity.
    According to the article, it is getting more expensive. On the stock exchanges, Amer's papers are also invested in it. Are they all idiots? Oh hardly...

    Well, layoffs ... And who is easy now? The HPP allowed all the negative consequences to be attributed to Russia. They will endure. Yes, we will endure.
    - There is no money, but you stay there ... good mood - Immortal!
  10. steelmaker
    steelmaker 11 December 2022 09: 48
    +1
    , "Isn't that why Russia was so diligently forced into a special operation,"
    It is disgusting to read such statements of grunts.
    "She is not advanced, but skewed,"
    The US budget for 2023 is over $7 trillion. It's something in the author's head that warped.
    "The volume of transactions in foreign securities on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange in November amounted to 3,5 billion dollars. "
    You shove your securities ....... away, and give people decent wages, pensions! Russia will not get these billions anyway.
    "Geopolitical instability is here to stay,"
    Someone on this instability is not sickly rose. To whom is the war, and to whom is the mother dear. From this instability, that Putin, that Baidon, some "sweets". Russia's interests here and does not smell! Therefore, this is SVO for a long time!
  11. Stas157
    Stas157 11 December 2022 10: 11
    +1
    . the volume of transactions in foreign securities ... ... by 41,65% more than in October. Optimists, and only

    There is simply nothing to trade. The Russian market lies. And foreign still somehow walks. For speculators, it is more attractive.
  12. Andrei Rimsky
    Andrei Rimsky 11 December 2022 14: 02
    -4
    Nobody benefits from the collapse of the US economy. For no one can offer the world anything instead of them. Everything advanced in technology comes from there. Expecting the collapse of the United States do not understand that much of the comfortable, safe, painless, effective that surrounds us in life comes from the United States. The Chinese are not able to replace it. I’m generally silent about Russia, our science has been spinning and spinning so far only in the military sphere, in the civilian industry we are not creating anything advanced and massive. The mentality does not allow.
    Therefore, the United States as a storehouse of minds must exist. Yes, they are aggressive, cocky, cruel, cynical, but this is the price for their exclusivity. And she is.
    1. Eule
      Eule 13 December 2022 09: 54
      -1
      Quote: Andrei Rimsky
      this is the price of their exclusivity. And she is.

      Which is a combination of subtropics where it doesn't snow every year like in Texas, gun rights that drag along a layer of knowledge and civil rights that you don't really realize from here, low taxes, and everything else. The United States has existed since the 1780s under the same Constitution. They do not have outdated laws that would drag their tails from who knows what time.
      In order to catch up with the United States, the Russians need to break through the Isthmus of Panama with thermonuclear charges, expand the Suez Canal with them so that circumpolar and circumequatorial currents arise, and on the territory of the Russian Federation the climate would become like in the United States - subtropics with high yields and no snow at all.
    2. your vsr 66-67
      your vsr 66-67 17 December 2022 15: 29
      0
      Nobody benefits from the collapse of the US economy. For no one can offer the world anything instead of them. Everything advanced in technology comes from there. Expecting the collapse of the US, they do not understand that much of the comfortable, safe, painless, effective that surrounds us in life comes from the US.

      And what do you use "comfortable, safe, effective, etc." from the USA? iPhone? Or something else?
      So we will live without iPhones and other "efficient" ones! After all, they lived in the USSR without all this, and lived well! I watched a few episodes of Admirals of the District. And what can be seen there, especially young people. Nightclubs where girls of easy virtue are depicted on a pole, well, you know what. Drugs. Alcohol.
      Not a single scene in the film is complete without alcohol! Whether it be women or a general with a colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs! Is this your "effective" from the USA?
  13. faterdom
    faterdom 11 December 2022 16: 27
    +2
    My strategy is to stock up on tools and consumables. It's still possible.
    Useful.
    We have the experience of the holy nineties.
    How to live without money, and what to do when there is ... nothing to do.
    How to boil lard in onion peel, salt and freeze.
    We are not bloggers, God forgive me...
    And in America people will get used to it. Well, not all of course...
    Well, they didn't fit in, as Gaidar and Chubais used to say.
    Let's not worry too much about them - at home we have our own affairs in bulk.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  14. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 11 December 2022 18: 07
    0
    $ 3000 per troy ounce is fantastic! And then how much will other metals cost? It's just that Western rating agencies need to trim the sturgeon. Tesla cost more than Toyota, the top of "wisdom" to believe in it. But it was possible to cut down money on this, and from thin air.
  15. Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 11 December 2022 19: 39
    0
    these forecasts and analysts are nonsense - they never guessed anything, did not predict, did not foresee
    1. filibuster
      filibuster 11 December 2022 20: 28
      +2
      These forecasts are at least worth something, when the forecaster mortgages his property under these forecasts, history knows several such people who predicted the onset of a mortgage crisis and exaggeratedly shorted the market, in the end they turned out to be right in their analysis / forecast and earned a lot of money.
  16. Nitten
    Nitten 13 December 2022 04: 09
    0
    I'll probably buy some gold ... For currency.
  17. Eule
    Eule 13 December 2022 09: 48
    -1
    Layoffs, as well as the construction of new industries, are the norm in the United States. In their subtropics, the price of the walls and roof of the plant is lower, and it is more profitable to build a new plant for a new production line and chain than to cram new equipment into the existing warm buildings, which is 2-3 technological levels more perfect than the one for which the plant was built.
    The simplest example - under the transmission on the ceiling of the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, you need a lot of columns supporting the roof and shafts.
    Under the closed boxes of machining centers - you need a single volume in order to carry boxes with blanks and semi-finished products over the aisles with a hoist.
    In the 18th century, machine tools did not need water inlet and outlet for cooling, compressed air lines and oil mist air extraction. Now, without them, little works.