Part one. We fall and burn
With your permission (or without it), I will state two things at once. It’s just that both of them are the pain of the day for the Russian Aerospace Forces, so one does not interfere with the other.
I, to my great regret, have already spoken about the first part here: The old people will go into battle again?. Check, who is not too lazy, while everything turns out exactly according to the plan I drew.
Russian planes are falling. We are losing pilots, we are losing civilians, we are losing planes. And if planes are a replenishable business (probably), then the flight crew and people in general are not.
Nevertheless, VKS military planes fall with enviable regularity.
April.
Leningrad region. The MiG-31 fighter-interceptor fell, the pilots ejected.
June.
Su-25 attack aircraft crashes near Belgorod. The pilot survived.
Rostov region. The Su-25 is falling. The pilot dies.
Dubrovichi, Ryazan region. Falling IL-76 military transport aviation, the crew of 5 people die.
September.
Crimea. The Su-34 is falling. The crew ejects.
Октябрь.
Rostov region. The Su-24 is falling. The crew ejects.
On the same day, October 9, in the Rostov region, a Su-25 crashes, the pilot dies.
Yeisk. 17 October. Su-34 falls on a residential building. 15 people died.
Irkutsk. October 24th. Su-30 falls on a private house, the pilots died.
December.
Primorsky Krai. Falling MiG-31. The crew ejected.
In total, sad statistics: 9 aircraft and 10 people were lost in 24 months. For non-combat, that is, technical reasons. The reasons can also be disassembled, but there are no pilot errors, there are engine and control failures, the Su-30 crew suffocated from a malfunction in the oxygen system. In general, the picture is clear and understandable.
“The cause of the accident could be a technical malfunction”, - habitually reported in the Ministry of Defense.
Some hotheads have already started talking about sabotage, but no, we will talk about sabotage in the second part of my story.
Let's think about the mournful list of aircraft.
IL-76 - 1 units
Su-25 - 3 units
Su-24 - 1 units
Su-30 - 1 units
Su-34 - 2 units
MiG-31 - 2 units
Aircraft can be safely divided into two groups: old and not very old. Not very old ones are Su-30 and Su-34. The Su-30 has been in operation as a model for thirty years, the Su-34 for about eight.
As for the MiG-31, the youngest of which was manufactured in 1994, everything is clear here. The same applies to the Su-24, the most recent of the Su-24M was released in 1993. That is, in fact, there is an operation of thirty-year-old aircraft. But nothing here, the Tu-95 and V-52 have been serving for seventy years, they are not completely falling apart.
However, it is one thing to stand in the hangar, performing 2-3 sorties a year, and quite another when the aircraft is operated according to the full flight program. There is something to think about, there is room for maneuver, so to speak.
What are people close to aviation talking about today on this topic?
The fact that since the collapse of the USSR, for 25 years, pennies were allocated for aviation. The pilots give the figures of the raid. In the Soviet Air Force, the norm was 180-220 hours per year for a fighter. In the Russian Air Force, for many years it was normal to have 10-20 hours a year. Today in VKS - 35-45 hours. Progress? Yes. But there are nuances.
We have not only old aircraft that began to be exploited harshly in Syria, from which many did not return, but most of them - precisely for technical non-combat reasons. We also have undertrained pilots. I've heard this from many people in the know.
This saving effect has a rather prolonged effect. What if today they brought in tanks of kerosene and made it possible to fly again? Time, everything takes time. Including flight training. And aircraft repairs.
A pilot unprepared to the ideal plus an unreliable aircraft - and here are the results. On the ground, in flames and clouds of smoke.
No, the fact that the pilots were finally given the opportunity to fly more is wonderful. But here the more flights - the more accidents. This is normal and natural. But we also added a war, which is not really a war, but a NWO. True, the letters do not make it easier for pilots, a flight with a full combat load - it is still a flight.
What if there is more than one flight? And not two? And if there are 3-5 of them a day? Everything gets tired: both technology and people. It is easier with people, but with the repair of equipment again difficulties.
We paid a lot of attention to the sabbath that is going on in the industry under the guise of "optimization". And in the aviation industry, things are not much better than in the field of car repair. All the same squabbling over the budget, all the same undercover games.
In the Soviet Union, repairs were carried out exclusively by ARZs, aircraft repair plants. There were more than enough of them, but now ... Now, in the situation with the same Su-30s, which the 275th ARZ in Krasnodar was supposed to repair and modernize, the movements are moving towards capitalizing and modernizing fighters in Irkutsk. Where they release it.
The Su-34 is now being repaired a little closer, in Novosibirsk. Indeed, it is still not Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
That is. to drive a plane for repairs to the other side of the country is normal. But then there is the issue of quality. Not sure. That footage from Stary Gorodok near Kubinka and Krasnodar will rush to Siberia. Not sure.
In general, the situation is very ugly. In the conditions of warfare, equipment is operated much more actively than in peacetime, this is understandable. But with the change in operating conditions, it is necessary to change the conditions for the maintenance and repair of aircraft. Apparently, there are certain problems with this, otherwise why did the planes suddenly begin to fall from the sky in such quantities?
It is clear that the old ones, with a decent patina, which have not received proper maintenance and high-quality repairs for years, cannot behave differently. But, if Russia does not have the financial capacity to replace old aircraft with new ones (as with tanks), which means that it is necessary at least to put the maintenance of old aircraft on the proper level in terms of quality.
However, the reports show quite the opposite.
Part two. We burn and fall
We are burning on the ground, we are falling in the face of the "world community".
Another slap in the face of the Russian army, more precisely, the VKS. Attack at night of the strategic aviation base in Engels. No, just think about it: Base. strategic. Aviation.
These, by the way, are not just Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft, but aircraft with nuclear-powered Kh-55 and Kh-101 missiles. Absolutely the same component of the nuclear triad as our submarine missile carriers or the Yars complexes in the foothill hangars.
This is an attack on our nuclear deterrent. And, it is worth noting, not ballistic or cruise missiles, but a frankly ancient Soviet drone from the Tupolev Design Bureau (called the Tu-141 "Swift" and Tu-143 "Flight"), which in theory could not have flown from Ukraine. However, it arrived. Having passed through the air defense of the country through and through, like a knife through butter.
That is, we can safely conclude that after the attack on the airfields of Saki in the Crimea, Veretye in the Pskov region, Millerovo in the Rostov and Shaikovka in the Kaluga regions, no conclusions were drawn.
The trend, excuse me, was obvious, that Russian aircraft would continue to burn (and 11 units were destroyed in Saki alone), the only question is where this will happen. Happened in Engels. At the airfield of strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Where, judging by the images of the Maxar satellites, how did Russian strategic bombers stand at the parade.
I wonder who could give the order to set up the planes like that? What, I'm not afraid of this word, a military specialist? Half of our strategic aviation in close formation at one airfield ... Who could have thought of such a thing? Who should be punished to the fullest extent?
Where did the commander of the VKS look at all? One general makes pilots learn songs from him, the second arranges a day of open planes to the delight of the whole world ...
Surovikin - commander of the VKS. Here in the lower right corner is the date and time when the screen was taken on the website of the Ministry of Defense. The rest of the questions are not for me, but for the Minister of Defense and the Commander-in-Chief. And yes, no one removed him from the post of commander of the VKS!
I have no comments, as they say. Personally, I understand that this whole circus with tightly packed aircraft, tankers, ammunition did not begin yesterday. But Surovikin was also appointed commander of the Aerospace Forces already in 2017 ...
And as a result, we have strategic missile carriers, a threat to the entire NATO bloc, weapon unavoidable blow, uncovered and unprotected, stand in a heap on the runway. And they can be hit not only with a Soviet drone, but also with a flying aircraft assembled in a garage from Ali-express materials.
In NATO, probably, multi-star generals, neigh like horses. Spilling expensive whiskey on carpets and dropping cigars.
Russia's strategic forces are commanded by incompetent gentlemen.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces are not covered in any way.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces can be beaten with a penny drone.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces are helpless in front of anything from UAVs to conventional saboteurs.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces are not covered in any way.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces can be beaten with a penny drone.
Russia's strategic nuclear forces are helpless in front of anything from UAVs to conventional saboteurs.
The air defense of the Aerospace Forces, and the air defense and missile defense forces are structurally part of the Aerospace Forces with all the ensuing consequences, are unable not only to repel - to detect a threat!
I don't know what the generals are so busy with, I know what the pilots are doing. Abstracts and photo reports. And lawn mowing techniques. Perhaps with her paint.
From Ukraine, places where you can launch a drone comparable to the Shahed, to Engels in a straight line about 700 kilometers. We have considered the option:"Shahed" - "Barvinok" over Russian cities: prospects and options.
Today, the question of a DRG with a drone does not arise, at least in Engels. But so far it is very unclear what was in Ryazan, flew in, and how.
But the issue of sabotage for the future also cannot be removed. Residents of Engels write on social networks that the city has a decent number of refugees from Ukraine. Some of them were seen with Ukrainian flags and pro-Ukrainian yells. Could they have done this? Easy. Moreover, almost all conditions were created for such sabotage on the territory of the airfield. But the main question is: who even bothered to settle the arrivals from the state with which we are at war in the city where such a base is located?
Western media, viewing the pictures of November 28, rightly noted that “The tankers are standing next to the long-range bombers. And the bombers themselves, as you can see, stand wing to wing. That is, it is so close that if an emergency occurs during refueling, the result will be predictable. ("EurAsian Times").
How should the GUR of Ukraine have reacted? They definitely saw the pictures before publication. This is how they reacted. And they brought their agents into battle, which Russia kindly settled in their cities and villages. And these agents, not clover, living on benefits, studied approaches and approaches. Then she came up and took off.
We still don’t know the details in Ryazan ...
And here is such a slap in the face to Mr. General Armageddon. You know, commanding the Aerospace Forces for five years and commanding such things is, as it were, “understanding and forgiving” is difficult.
To be honest, until very recently, I thought that to take and strike at Engels like that is from the realm of fantasy. It turns out not. No fantasy. More precisely, there is fantasy, it is a blow with "Tomahawks" or "Minutemen". This is real fantasy. And reality is the oldest, the same age as me, a Soviet drone, uncontrollable and capable of flying exclusively along the route. Not even capable of maneuvering, flying according to the laid down program. And that's it, fantasy dies and reality remains.
A very shameful reality. Because you understand that if the "Reis" gave us such a plop, then what will happen when the "Axes" fly?
At one time, I said that Surovikin would have to answer very difficult in which case: Difficult choice for General Surovikin. But apparently, they will have to answer a little earlier, and not as the commander of the NMD, but as the commander of the Aerospace Forces. Because, firstly, the "achievements" of the Aerospace Forces are already hinting at their incapacity, secondly, a complete mess reigns at the airfields in terms of security and defense, and thirdly, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine switch off and they launch something at the Kremlin or a country residence Putin, it will be too late.
And everything that was said in this material should have been considered point-blank long before the country climbed into the war. You need to prepare for war, you know. But for this, you first need to recruit military leaders from somewhere who are suitable for something more than putting on each other awards of various denominations.
Well, we'll wait for another tough answer. And we will rejoice at the destruction of a couple more transformer substations. This is how everything will be - they are our strategic bombers, we are their transformers.
But, to be honest, I was shocked by the helplessness of our VKS. I thought there was at least some order. Alas, disappointment here too.