Why Russia cannot defeat Ukraine from the air in the same way as the US did in Iraq and Yugoslavia
As a result of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the dominance of artillery on the battlefield as the main means of defeating the enemy is clearly visible. In this regard, the question arises, why is this happening? Why Russian aviation does not dominate the battlefield? Why can't we do the same with Ukraine as the US/NATO did with Iraq and Yugoslavia?
The US/NATO invasion of Iraq and the barbaric bombardments of Yugoslavia really looked impressive, and contrary to the opinion of the “jingos” (and there were already then), they ended in a complete and unconditional victory for the aggressor.
"Desert Storm"
If we talk about Iraq, what is the reason? The strength of the US Air Force (Air Force) or the weakness of the Iraqi Armed Forces?
Obviously, in both, and most importantly, in the huge technological gap between the Iraqi Armed Forces and the US Armed Forces. Undoubtedly, the combined power of the US Air Force / NATO was an order of magnitude, or even two, higher than the combined capabilities of the Air Force and air defense (Air Defense) of Iraq.
In addition, the factor of betrayal could play a huge role here.
Firstly, according to some (unconfirmed) reports, the young democratic Russia then transferred to the United States the frequencies of the radar stations (RLS) of the Iraqi air defense, which allowed the electronic warfare (EW) of the US Air Force to ensure their effective jamming and suppression of anti-radar missiles, which even the air defense of Iraq theoretically, it could not intercept in order to protect its radars and anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM).
Secondly, "there is no such fortress that a donkey laden with gold would not take." Again, according to unconfirmed information, the Iraqi army was merged by its own generals for a solid "jackpot". It is unlikely that this will be verified and confirmed, but does anyone have doubts that such a scenario is quite likely?
And all this took place on an ideal terrain for Air Force operations, without mountain ranges and dense forest plantations.
Thus, in Iraq, the US Armed Forces were dealing with an outdated and disorganized armed forces, doomed in advance "to be slaughtered" by their own command, but even in this case, the US spent a lot of resources to achieve a positive result. turn out weapon Iraq is a little more modern, if their Armed Forces were a little more trained and professional, and most importantly, if the USSR / Russia helped them in the same way as the United States is now supporting Ukraine, and everything could have ended completely differently.
"Allied Force"
The barbaric bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), primarily Serbian cities, clearly showed the misanthropic nature of the Western countries, led by the United States and Great Britain. When they say about a special operation that Russia allegedly unleashed a full-scale war in Europe on the territory of Ukraine, then for some reason they bashfully forget about the crimes of NATO in Yugoslavia, and this applies not only to our obvious enemies - they are supposed to be by status, but also to the domestic slop- liberal stratum.
It would seem that on the side of the Serbs, the terrain is not a bare desert, as in Iraq, mountains, forests - all this should have significantly complicated the work of the US Air Force. Yes, and Russia, albeit a little, but changed, and no longer supported the actions of the United States.
On the other hand, the Serbs did not receive any assistance from Russia or received very little, because at that time we were extremely weak both politically and from a military point of view. And the technical level of the Yugoslav Armed Forces was not far from the Iraqi ones, and perhaps even inferior in terms of the number of weapons and military equipment.
The remains of an inconspicuous tactical bomber F-117A, shot down by the air defense of the FRY. Image by wikipedia.org
But most importantly, in Yugoslavia, the United States used a completely different tactic: instead of destroying the Serbian armed forces, they focused their efforts on attacks on civilian infrastructure, that is, in 1999 they did what Russia is now accused of, despite the fact that there is no threat to either the United States or countries Europe didn't exist. By the way, for the first time German pilots, descendants of the Nazis who were not killed in the USSR, again bombed a European country - they again felt the taste of Slavic blood.
Thus, even taking into account the significant quantitative and qualitative superiority of the US and NATO forces, they won a victory in Yugoslavia only due to the destruction of civilian infrastructure. It can be assumed that if the United States had initially decided to limit itself only to military facilities, then the Allied Force operation would have dragged on for many years and would have required the entry of US/NATO ground forces with all the losses in equipment and manpower due in such cases.
Clockwise from top - destroyed by NATO bombings: the building of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the FRY, the bridge in Ostrujnica, the building of Radio and Television of Serbia, the building of the Ministry of Defense of the FRY. Image by wikipedia.org
Special Military Operation (SVO)
With Russian dominance in the air over the territory of Ukraine, everything is complicated. Worst of all, so far there are no signs of improvement in the situation, just the other day (01.12.2022/25/29) information appeared about the flight of two Ukrainian Su-XNUMX attack aircraft and one MiG-XNUMX fighter, presumably in the Artyomovsk direction. There is no information about the actions of the Russian Air Force in the depths of the territory of Ukraine. Apparently, a certain parity has formed - the aviation of both sides is working in the area of the front line and no further.
But is this a consequence of the weakness of the Russian Air Force?
The Russian special operation began with a ground-air invasion, the infrastructure of Ukraine, even the military, was practically not destroyed - such cases were isolated. Moreover, the campaigns to destroy the fuel infrastructure that had begun were somehow quickly interrupted and subsided, as if they had never existed.
Meanwhile, Western accomplices of Ukronazism did not sit idly by. Apparently, the remnants of Ukrainian air defense systems were restored, supplemented by the supply of Soviet weapons from Eastern Europe (and not only), and now Western ones. And all this was integrated into a single information network with the means of intelligence, combat planning and control of the Western countries.
Thus, in order to radically reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, it is necessary to “land” American strategic unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and early warning aircraft (AWACS) hovering over Poland, Romania and the Black Sea, to suppress ground-based radar stations in Eastern Europe, and possibly , as American intelligence, command and communications satellites. Only then will the Russian Air Force be able to calmly suppress Ukrainian air defense without fear of getting an anti-aircraft guided missile (SAM) in the back.
Otherwise, it turns out that the Ukrainian Air Force has information support that is invulnerable to strikes, which significantly increases the effectiveness of their actions, which in many respects neutralizes the superiority of the Russian Air Force in the number and quality of combat vehicles.
Speaking in hindsight, the NWO itself, according to the author, was conceptually built incorrectly from the very beginning. A ground invasion in the existing conditions is obviously a big problem, it was time to see this on the example of the United States in Vietnam, the USSR in Afghanistan and Russia in Chechnya.
Based on the foregoing, the NMD scenario should have been based and developed on the basis of one (albeit extended in time) massive strike. Without prior concentration of forces. Without statements by the President and other things. As an occasion - the day of independence of Ukraine, with the presentation of awards to the next Nazis, the shelling or attack of Donbass, or, for example, a complete ban on the Russian language. But one can talk about the reasons only after the start of the conflict and with the simultaneous presentation of an ultimatum on unconditional surrender.
Alternate history of NWO
No threatened period, no concentration of Russian troops on the border and, as a result, no warnings from Western countries.
In the first three days - one, two or three thousand launches of cruise missiles. The ships fire Caliber from the pier, reload, fire again, and again, and more... Strategic aviation aircraft take off, fire ammunition from maximum range, return to airfields, receive ammunition and target coordinates, take off again. Daggers, Iskanders and Bastions are working on especially important targets. From the territory of Belarus, on areal targets, operational-tactical missile systems (OTRK) "Tochka-U" strike. One or two thousand "Geraniums" (purchased in advance) fill the sky over Ukraine with a characteristic rattling. Then comes the turn of tactical aviation, finishing off the rest of the targets.
Exotic means of destruction are used, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with a conventional warhead и projectiles converted from old cars - kamikaze UAVs carrying tens of tons of explosives.
What serves as goals?
The priority is government buildings, of course, with contents, the buildings of the Ministry of Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) - it is necessary to decapitate civilian and military structures, special services. They are followed by TV towers, cellular communication switches, telephone exchanges, military communications centers. By the end of the first day, Ukraine is blind, deaf and decapitated - no television, no internet, no telephone.
This is followed by a speech by the president, an ultimatum is put forward for complete and unconditional surrender. Western countries receive a warning about the inadmissibility of any interference, any aggressive actions against the Russian population or culture, against any arrests and blocking of funds and property of residents of the Russian Federation. In case of non-compliance - the threat of a preemptive strike, including with the use of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW), against US and NATO bases, first against those located in the countries of Eastern Europe, and then in the countries of Western Europe.
This is confirmed by the clear activation of the RF Armed Forces in the area of TNW depots, which is clearly visible to intelligence satellites of Western countries. Countries with US nuclear weapons (NW) located on their territories are warned that if any activity is detected, a nuclear strike will be launched without delay and without warning.
The second day - strikes on military registration and enlistment offices - mobilization is completely disrupted, strikes on power supply systems, fuel lines and hubs, railway junctions. Electronic intelligence equipment and aircraft with anti-radar missiles hunt for any source of radar radiation. By the end of the second day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing the ability to organize conscription in the largest cities and agglomerations, there is no electricity in most of Ukraine, and fuel reserves are rapidly dwindling. Most of the rail traffic has been interrupted.
Third day. And Ukraine does not capitulate by the end of the second? Without information, communication and light, without sane management and prospects? Now, in our current reality, what is called “a frog in boiling water” is happening - this is when living conditions worsen gradually, and people get used to them. And when, within a few days, citizens of Ukraine from the XNUMXst get into the XNUMXth century, the effect will be completely different...
Well, let's say no - Ukraine did not capitulate. On the third day, the maximum number of bridges, primarily railway bridges, is destroyed, the destruction of railway junctions, electrical networks and cellular networks continues, and the hunt for the remains of disparate air defense systems is underway.
Long-range high-precision weapons should have been used only to destroy the transport and energy infrastructure, communications and control systems, and not at all to destroy a dozen or two mercenaries at the Yavorovsky training ground, who were later brought in by many thousands.
After that it wouldn't work anymore. Ukrainian military-industrial complex (MIC), which in real reality continues to work and supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons and equipment, there would be no or extremely limited arms supplies by Western countries.
After the strikes have begun, it is possible to prepare a ground invasion, but not to climb on the fortifications in the Donbass - why break through them at all? Why not attack from the northwest to cut the Ukraine in half?
And if the strength is not enough to immediately swallow such a piece, then from the northeast, along the Dnieper, cutting off the entire left-bank Ukraine from its western part - in the event of the destruction of bridges turn the Dnieper the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not have had any chances to win it back.
However, we dreamed of something ...
Conclusions
The Russian Air Force was unable to seize dominance and defeat Ukraine from the air, not because of the lack of modern combat and auxiliary aircraft, UAVs and precision-guided munitions, although this factor certainly had an effect, but because the priorities were set incorrectly.
Instead of from the very beginning of the special operation carry out a complete decomposition of UkraineIncluding destruction on the first day of most of its leadership, the RF Armed Forces were drawn into a protracted ground conflict with murky schemes of negotiations and concessions, culminating in partial mobilization with currently unclear prospects.
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