Military Review

Russian oil: the ceiling is getting lower - $62 per barrel, 60

80
Russian oil: the ceiling is getting lower - $62 per barrel, 60



In line, in line...


It makes no sense to finish here Bulgakov's - Sharikov's quote from the pub. And so everything is clear. The oil market due to the global recession may soon become a surplus. However, why then is OPEC in the world, and why is Russia so quickly learning to manipulate the volume of export deliveries.

This is how it is in the market - the seller, the one who has, say, a difficult product, is afraid of burning out much more than the buyer. Based on this, the West is trying to influence one of the world's main oil sellers - Russia. She resists, while only threatening, but she can also move from words to deeds. The conditions of the SVO are quite conducive to this.

December 5 is approaching our oil industry with frightening speed. Opponents have no, or rather, should not have, doubts about this. And they, it seems, manage to pull up seemingly not too interested allies to the dubious idea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbwith a ceiling on prices exclusively for Russian oil.

How else to regard the extremely "unexpected" decision of Turkish President Erdogan not to let oil tankers with Russian oil through the Bosphorus without insurance. It was as if he pulled out of his sleeve that very trump card of insurance, which the Western allies seemed to have successfully squandered.

We do not argue, for the sake of profit, and definitely long-term, it is possible to attract someone who is not at the table. However, it is worth remembering that Turkey is not only a buyer of oil, and with the lion's share of Russian oil. Yes, considerable profits shine there, but if the Russian Urals is too much humiliated, you can lose much more on losses in transit and other services.

On an illegal position or ... who is less?


It is hard to believe that Erdogan suddenly took care of British insurers, who insure at least 80% of the world's shipping. Not only for oil, but also for liquefied gas, we recall. But London, mind you, even without the Turks will remain the main regulator of intercontinental logistics.

That is why Erdogan is not sympathetic to the prospect of going underground. And such a situation can become a very real prospect for Russian oilmen. And let them not be reassured by the fact that so far the real prices for Russian oil are below the notorious ceiling - even the lowest among the currently available proposals.

Recall that quite recently, within the EU, and then the G7 and G20, a ceiling level of $40 per barrel was discussed, which, it seems, pretty much frightened the proposers themselves. The bar of $40 was dropped immediately, and now the ceiling sanctioners are rushing between $60 and $62.

The bargaining over the ceiling seems to be very sharp, and in parallel in Vienna there are working meetings, the so-called "ministerial" ones, within the framework of OPEC and OPEC+. Judging by information leaks, they discuss the possibility of a prompt reduction in oil production and exports.


As you know, the Saudis and their partners are now as loyal as possible in relations with Russia, which cannot but irritate the collective West. But we must not forget that in a sharp drop in the price of oil, which this public is so seeking, in no way is to the benefit of the American oil giants.

The US is not only the world's largest buyer of oil, but also one of the top three oil producers, although Russia may well fall out of this top three. So, the American oilmen quite recently exhaled, counting on the stabilization of high oil prices.

And they even began to engage in the notorious slate again. And what now, they again collapse everything and start the chariot of bankruptcies? It’s easier then to bow to the Saudi princes and again bargain for the size of the “pluses” in notorious deals.

They repeat


Today's Western leaders are clearly thin compared to their predecessors, who fought oil wars with Russia, that is, with the USSR, decades ago. Nevertheless, their techniques are very similar, of course, without taking into account the CBO factor.

This factor, as is well known, led to the strengthening of the dollar, unprecedented since the last millennium. However, why be surprised: the dollar is the currency of the war, and even if there is a big war, then it is almost the only currency. The dollar is growing - American debts are growing, but someday you will have to pay off.

But old Biden, whom Macron, Scholz and the British Sunak are almost under arms, without understanding why, is acting on the basis of President Reagan's tracing paper. Although he still had to remove his own from Afghanistan, and this is another geopolitical pent-up demand.

But after all, against Russia, as the successor of the USSR, there is now a very worthy replacement - a much closer Ukrainian periphery. Under SVO you can not only weapons to heat up the market to the limit, but also to crush the grain under itself, but to do about the same with oil as it was once under Reagan.

Yes, already in this century, the United States more than once or even not twice failed to push the increase in production through the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, which is very symptomatic. But from the reminder, it follows that now it is not just that there is a real battle for the collapse of oil prices.

And under the gun - not only and even, pardon for such unpatriotism, not so much Russia, in the global confrontation between real and financial capital, this fight is perhaps the decisive one. How decisive was once the agreement of the American President Reagan with the Saudi princes.

About what? Yes, that they tripled the pumping of oil from under the Arabian sands. Do you remember the first weeks of the pandemic and the oil war between Moscow and Riyadh? Maybe it was nothing more than a test of the pen, and after this you are still wondering "why the Arabs were not asked."

And in the end, why is oil worse than gas? That one, as a result of a whole chain of absolutely unpredictable, without any irony, events, has risen in price so that gas workers, not necessarily Russian ones, are now paid by everyone, and they pay a lot. The only one who pays a little is the one to whom the same Russia is simply forced not to drive gas because of the loss of transit capacities.

Don't you think that against the backdrop of oil passions, it is the gas market that suddenly seems to be a kind of island of stability? And so, after the harsh ultimatums of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and the statements of Senator Alexei Pushkov, the speeches of our esteemed Maria Zakharova, a diplomat and even a deputy minister, are somehow read differently.

Here is how she commented on the intention of the West to achieve the functioning of the corresponding oil price ceiling mechanism for Russia from December 5:

“The introduction of a mechanism to limit prices for Russian oil can significantly complicate the situation on world markets and will have devastating consequences for everyone.

We have repeatedly said that such measures - the so-called cap on Russian oil prices - are not just a non-market mechanism, they are an anti-market measure that disrupts supply chains and can significantly complicate the situation in global energy markets.

The Russian Federation will not supply oil to those countries that support this anti-Russian provocative undertaking. It does have an anti-Russian focus, but the consequences will be devastating for everyone.”

The feeling that instead of an ultimatum we hear something completely different does not leave us. And this, alas, is by no means legendary:

"No, Russia is not angry, Russia is concentrating."
Author:
Photos used:
static.report.az, communitarian.ru
80 comments
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  1. dauria
    dauria 3 December 2022 04: 26
    +43
    Tfu. From the USSR got "It is necessary to trade for currency". What for ? Under the Union, it’s clear - a tricky two-circuit system, cash, non-cash, and you can change FIG. But with a free convertible ruble, the rule is simple "Any country should sell goods only for its currency. And try to buy for yours too. So strengthens own currency. And to trade for a dollar is to turn the ruble into garbage. If necessary, the ruble can always be weakened by printing and investing in the business or throwing it on the currency exchange. Other countries will stand in a pose - they also want to sell for their own. We go to the money changers (to the currency exchange) and change.
    And forget the slogan "the country needs a currency". Need - go and buy dollars for strong rubles. And not to support someone else's dollar with their oil.
    Tomorrow I will say - our barrel of oil is 1000 rubles, keep the dollars for yourself, at least 60, at least 600. See the effect.
    1. bayard
      bayard 3 December 2022 13: 31
      +21
      Quote: dauria
      do not support someone else's dollar with their oil.
      Tomorrow I will say - our barrel of oil is 1000 rubles, keep the dollars for yourself, at least 60, at least 600. See the effect.

      And you know, if you strain your memory, you can remember that this is exactly what "young Putin" was saying and striving for this back in the early to mid-XNUMXs. It is to trade in oil / gas for rubles and through this to introduce the ruble into the pool of reserve currencies. He often spoke about this then, they even tried to organize oil trading for rubles on the Moscow Exchange ... And somehow it all sunk into oblivion since then.
      From the beginning, the SVO again declared menacingly and decisively - "we trade gas and oil only for rubles" ... they also wanted grain ... and instead "a grain deal with the issuance of the leaders of Azov ... The will of the towers turned out to be rather liquid ...
      And why ?
      They demonstrated weakness in what historically recognized our strength - in the war. request And until this weakness is overcome by newfound strength and reinforced by decisive and unquestionable victories ... we will continue to bend and break.
      Now frosts have risen in Ukraine, the ground is freezing, and our reserves have been trained and make it possible to take revenge for previous defeats, elegantly called "regroupings" and "gestures of someone's good will."
      The will of the Great State during the war DOES NOT HAVE THE RIGHT to be "good". She MUST BE IRON!
      Shut off all deliveries of our energy carriers to all states that support the fascist regime in Kyiv! And no negotiations with the THieves of our assets until they return everything to the last penny and apologize! And no re-export deliveries through spacers!!
      The cold winter will multiply the effect of our counter-sanctions, our potential allies will increase the firmness and decisiveness of the Kremlin’s authorities and stop hesitating (now they hesitated in fear of our capitulation to international attacks), and the People will support such a policy and return from disappointment to the unconditional support of the Kremlin for the sake of decisive and final Victory.
      1. Machito
        Machito 3 December 2022 16: 37
        +9
        And the retirement age to return to its original place.
        1. Eule
          Eule 3 December 2022 18: 32
          -3
          And get the epidemic "covid23Pro"?
          No, it's better for the FIU leaders to just steal money than to kill everyone over 60 with a new virus or something.
      2. Mraka
        Mraka 3 December 2022 20: 57
        +3
        Handsomely. I support.
        But the Kremlin towers will not support ...
        1. bayard
          bayard 4 December 2022 04: 58
          +3
          Quote from Mraka
          But the Kremlin towers will not support ...

          Then a fate awaits them that is many times more bitter than the fate of the Nikola-2 family, the Russian aristocracy and the entire ruling elite of the Republic of Ingushetia.
          And they know it.
          1. dauria
            dauria 4 December 2022 05: 49
            0
            Then a fate awaits them that is many times more bitter than the fate of the Nikola-2 family turned out to be

            Oh-ho-honyushki ... Not all, but a few. An exemplary massacre, and the rest will be inscribed in their ranks. Moreover, these "units" will be handed over for reprisal by their own. Someone will be an overseer here, someone hopes to quietly adapt there. And even the name "Russia" and the flag will be allowed to remain. Why disturb the "people"? It's easier to smoothly turn in the right direction.
            1. bayard
              bayard 4 December 2022 06: 19
              +1
              Quote: dauria
              and the rest will be added to their ranks. Moreover, these "units" will be handed over for reprisal by their own

              This was already the last time, and since then the Anglo-Saxons have regretted more than once that they "did not finish off Russia." Now they want EVERYTHING. Therefore, EVERYTHING intends to take away. And the towers do not agree with this, they are used to it. and therefore they balk. at first they tried to agree on a new one, and when they realized that now they would just be fed to pigs, and after that manure would not even fit for fertilizer, they realized that they had to stand up for their own to the end.
              They would have sold out maybe "for a small share", but they are not given that either. That's why you have to fight. And the towers will have to clean the ranks.
  2. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 3 December 2022 04: 31
    +21
    Life will force the Kremlin to adapt...let's see if the Kremlin leadership will keep its promise not to sell oil below the market price.
    You can't trust his word.
    1. UltraTotenkopF
      UltraTotenkopF 3 December 2022 05: 06
      -4
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      Life will force the Kremlin to adapt...let's see if the Kremlin leadership will keep its promise not to sell oil below the market price.
      You can't trust his word.

      And who's word to believe? Is it something dear to you, oil is not gas, it can be kept in storage, and now, dear, let's imagine what will happen to oil futures if Russia stops deliveries until April 2023, and we can do it twice, just don't forget that the refineries of Germany, Hungary and other EU countries are sharpened for Russian Urals oil, it will not be possible to quickly replace our oil, so in the near future we will see who the Kremlin or gay Satanists in the West will have to adapt to!
      1. rotmistr60
        rotmistr60 3 December 2022 07: 03
        +3
        Business comment, without snot and slogans. It is very rightly noted that
        do not forget that it is for the Russian Urals oil that the refineries of Germany, Hungary and other EU countries are sharpened
        Therefore, let's see how they will get out if Russia fulfills its promises not to sell oil to countries that signed under the introduction of a price ceiling.
      2. Mikhail Krivopalov
        Mikhail Krivopalov 3 December 2022 07: 49
        +18
        Oil is sold not by Russia, but by oil companies that have their own owners interested in obtaining maximum profit, and the interests of these owners do not always coincide with the interests of the Russian Federation.
        1. dauria
          dauria 3 December 2022 10: 02
          +7
          Oil is sold not by Russia, but by oil companies that have their own owners

          It's right. And there is also a border. And the right of the state to determine how and "how much" any product will cross this border in any direction. Up to the name of the seller. Otherwise, we are not a country. So set the threshold. If you want to sell for dollars over a hill, and even not a very desirable buyer, for God's sake, just "unfasten" and go home without pants. And that's it.
      3. werwolf1981
        werwolf1981 3 December 2022 19: 08
        +9
        The authorities have discredited themselves in 9 months, especially, you can’t believe a single word, because they lie all the time
    2. far diu
      far diu 3 December 2022 05: 24
      +8
      So it is being sold at a discount. Now the spot price is $69 per barrel. November 29th was $63, near the ceiling
    3. Kotofeich
      Kotofeich 3 December 2022 20: 05
      +10
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      do not sell oil below the market price.

      And, the price here is not important at all. important principle. If we agree to a price cap, we will be crushed. The ceiling will go down every year. Then ceilings for gas, coal, metal, etc. will be introduced. The West will dictate to us at what price everything should be sold, and, accordingly, how we should live. These are the horses of our economy, we will turn into a colony.
      1. Garik Gorkin
        Garik Gorkin 3 December 2022 21: 10
        +9
        ... we will turn into a colony.

        We have been a US crypto colony for 30 years. An independent country will not keep its money in Western banks, but will invest it in its economy.
        Recently, our 300 billion dollars were frozen, and our Central Bank justified itself, saying that they did not assume that this could happen, although Putin always warned that it was not necessary to keep capital abroad, they could be frozen. Back in his first term in 2002, he said:
        You are tormented by swallowing dust, running through the courts to unlock them!

        But, the recent freeze did not teach our Central Bank anything, they continue to send money to the West so that we will be frozen and confiscated even more.
        Last week, the Central Bank transferred another $16.7 billion to the West, and our gold reserves increased to almost $600 billion.
        Thus, Russia pays not only its own expenses for the war, but also the expenses of the West for the war against us. Those. we are destroying ourselves.
        And it's all because of fifth column, which is based on oligarchs (such as Abramovich) and their pocket officials (such as Siluanova), which sit in all ministries and departments.
        1. Amper
          Amper 3 December 2022 21: 57
          +6
          It is a pity that our guarantor does not know about it! belay About the pumping of gold reserves, the 5th column .. crying How would he hurt them! angry And the whole country forward, to prosperity! yes The wicked people buried him, deceived him, they imposed the seal of ignorance. crying
          1. Garik Gorkin
            Garik Gorkin 3 December 2022 22: 41
            -6
            It is a pity that our guarantor does not know about this

            He knows. But so far it cannot change the situation. In almost all countries, the Central Bank is subordinate to the international mafia (IMF).
            Erdogan failed to nationalize his Central Bank.
            https://topcor.ru/9063-jerdoganu-ne-udalos-nacionalizirovat-centrobank-a-chto-v-rossii.html
            The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also holds foreign exchange reserves in the US.
            https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Список_стран_по_международным_резервам
            1. Amper
              Amper 4 December 2022 13: 37
              +1
              It is necessary to support HIM in the elections of 24g, maybe he can change it! love I really want to thrive and be reborn. feel fellow
    4. Barberry25
      Barberry25 4 December 2022 11: 20
      -3
      according to the sanctions, ships that carry oil more expensive than 60 bucks are not insured .. the problem is that the Europeans themselves said that the Russians have already bought 100 tankers for transporting oil
      1. Maki Avellevich
        Maki Avellevich 5 December 2022 21: 26
        0
        Quote: Barberry25
        according to the sanctions, ships that carry oil more expensive than 60 bucks are not insured .. the problem is that the Europeans themselves said that the Russians have already bought 100 tankers for transporting oil

        will prohibit uninsured ships (in the right companies) to enter the ports of many (except Cuba, S. Korea, etc.)
        countries.
        1. Barberry25
          Barberry25 5 December 2022 21: 58
          -2
          the Turks are already creating an insurance company that will provide insurance for those ships that they need
        2. Rustic
          Rustic 9 December 2022 20: 22
          0
          will prohibit uninsured ships (in the right companies) to enter the ports of many (except Cuba, S. Korea, etc.)
          countries.
          By the way, with insurance the question is interesting. And where is the guarantee that in which case, the British insurance companies will pay us insurance? There is no guarantee. Therefore, we also need to prohibit entry at least into our economic zone (and preferably in A2AD) to all ships that do not have insurance obtained from a trustworthy insurance company. Those. exclusively with our insurance company.
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Comrade
    Comrade 3 December 2022 05: 24
    +4
    Wait and see.
    Let's hope for the best, but expect the worst.
  5. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 3 December 2022 05: 38
    +8
    Quote: UltraTotenkopF
    who's word to believe? Do you

    I can ... I did not make promises. smile
  6. Nikolay Malyugin
    Nikolay Malyugin 3 December 2022 05: 52
    +1
    Look for market mechanisms where there are none at all. Let's say 60 greens per barrel is only for Russians. All insurance companies are connected with business. And they will spit on all the prohibitions, and will promote the promotion of our oil. This will not be long. Even a small increase from our side will be swallowed with pleasure. There is nothing permanent like the habit of working with the same partner.
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Architect
    Architect 3 December 2022 06: 55
    +12
    Quote: UltraTotenkopF
    Is it something dear to you, oil is not gas, it can be kept in storage,

    The Russian Federation does not have oil storage facilities.
    Therefore, wells will have to be closed, which in the future will entail the loss of either part of production or a complete cessation at a particular field.
    After the covid pandemic, many fields have not reached their previous production volumes. Now here's a recap.
    Likewise with insurance. It is unlikely that seaports will want to receive oil and oil products from the Russian Federation without it. All the same, God forbid what kind of emergency with a spill or something else. Given the terrorist attack on SP1-2, anything can be expected from our enemies.
  9. comradChe
    comradChe 3 December 2022 07: 00
    +17
    To the angry statements of our leadership - fie and grind, because even in the conditions of the NWO, it is we who supply the enemy with fuel and lubricants and gas. The information, if anything, is taken from Vesti FM radio yesterday. For your further conclusions, personally, I do not bear any responsibility.
    1. comradChe
      comradChe 3 December 2022 14: 59
      +6
      I'll add a "cherry on the cake." Under the "enemy" I meant Ukraine. How! These are the scraps we have and the goals of two extremely different halves of one Russian people.
  10. Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 3 December 2022 07: 01
    +7
    I suppose that they will sell as before to all Western countries, the USA and other demons. They will not advertise it on TV and in the media, and will use gray schemes with African countries and offshore states. And in the future, this mechanism will be even tougher - only Russia will do something wrong, the United States will demand a price limit of 50,,,40,,,30 per barrel.
    1. Amper
      Amper 3 December 2022 22: 04
      +4
      On the black market, the left product comes with an awesome discount. what For example, the market price of beans is 70 rubles / kg, and the left beans are pushing 30-35, or even 20-25 .. hi They do not talk about this in the market, the goods are scorched. fellow Therefore, it is more profitable to agree with the demand of the administration of the bazaar, if you do not leave there, and sell the beans at the price set for you of 60 rubles / kg. recourse
      1. Oleg812spb
        Oleg812spb 4 December 2022 14: 48
        +1
        And what is meant by the wording "left product"? A product of dubious quality, which is ready to be sold at any price, because Is it not in demand or is a batch of product obtained under some "gray" schemes much cheaper than the current price? In any case, hardly anyone will sell at a loss.
        1. Amper
          Amper 5 December 2022 19: 59
          0
          The left one is a product of good quality that does not have a market administration mark in the passport - ALLOWED for SALE. Law-abiding buyers will not buy it, because they may fall under the administration. No. He buys the black market with appropriate discounts, glues labels, makes passports, pushes in the market. fellow
  11. Battle Toads
    Battle Toads 3 December 2022 07: 03
    -20
    Talk more than a real problem.

    Russia will not sell oil below the market price. This is 10000%.

    All this movement with the ceiling is a problem exclusively for those who introduce it fellow
    1. Aleksandr21
      Aleksandr21 3 December 2022 08: 23
      +12
      Quote from BattleToads
      All this movement with the ceiling is a problem exclusively for those who introduce it


      Here we'll see. Then we are waiting for a bill (well, or amendments to current legislation) on a ban on oil supplies to unfriendly countries + a ban on those countries that introduce such a price ceiling ... because. a lot of words were said from our officials, now it's time to back up all this by law and instruct oil companies not to supply raw materials to the West.

      It will be fair.

      Or maybe there is another story in which Peskov, Novak and other officials will speak on December 5 and say that the West is so and so / bad and that it will go sideways ... but they themselves will not make legislative steps, and oil companies will sell on quiet oil to the West, and through intermediaries, taking into account the current level of $ 60 per barrel.

      + experts on TV will be connected, who will explain to the population that $ 60 is good for the budget, and everything is great and wonderful .... we'll see how it goes.
      1. far diu
        far diu 3 December 2022 09: 07
        +7
        Rather, they will supply friendly countries at 60, and friendly countries will supply excess to unfriendly ones at the market price, but this will affect the cost of Brent and WTI in the direction of lowering the cost of a barrel.
        As a result, the United States, which sold half of its oil reserves at $100-140 per barrel, will be able to recover at a price of $70-80 per barrel, which, in fact, even here the United States will make a profit.
        1. Aleksandr21
          Aleksandr21 3 December 2022 09: 38
          +6
          Quote: far diu
          Rather, they will supply friendly countries at 60, and friendly countries will supply excess to unfriendly ones at the market price, but this will affect the cost of Brent and WTI in the direction of lowering the cost of a barrel.


          Yes, it can be, if the price is artificially kept at $ 60 on the market, then friendly countries will buy at this price ... I see only the only way out of this situation: 1) Reduce oil production (and gas, in theory, is necessary) 2) Make a deficit in the energy market. And wait for the result ... when the West itself makes concessions on this issue. at such prices, there will be no development, but there will be an endless crisis, with high inflation and cosmic energy prices.

          Of course, the Russian budget will lose a lot from this ... but selling resources for next to nothing and supporting the economy of the West (in this way) is also not an option. Today they made $60 each and tomorrow they will make $40 each... as a result, they lose nothing, the volumes of oil / gas from Russia are steadily flowing and supporting the world economy, and we have nothing from this, except for meager profits.
          1. far diu
            far diu 3 December 2022 09: 52
            +1
            An artificial decline in this case will hit China and India, and this is definitely not in the interests of the Russian Federation. They will sell for 60, and those will sell for 70-80.

            And if the Russian Federation decides to make a discount for China and India, then this will be dumping of the Arabs, which is also a minus for diplomatic karma
            1. Aleksandr21
              Aleksandr21 3 December 2022 10: 02
              +8
              So Russia already sells oil / gas at big discounts to China / India, it’s just that this price ceiling will legalize these discounts and throw off even more (if the price is higher), is it in Russia’s interests that such non-market methods?

              The fact that we will sponsor the economies of China / India is, of course, in the interests of these countries, but as for our interest, this is very doubtful.

              The scheme will look like this: oil / gas at a discount - to China / India - Russia receives a small profit (minus the cost) - with this profit we purchase goods in these countries. But for the long-term development of the country, this is a dead end ...

              At the expense of us, other countries will develop and weld on, and we will stand still and buy other people's goods + technology supplies to our country will be controlled ... so can they immediately cut off (conditionally: pipes) and force themselves to be respected?
              1. far diu
                far diu 3 December 2022 10: 12
                -1
                The general moral is that no one will artificially reduce production. Because no one will understand this act, because there are public and non-public agreements.

                No, you can show the middle finger to everyone, only then the whole world will show the middle finger and everyone understands this. Therefore, they will have to agree and sell oil at 60 (and even now it is sold at a discount slightly above this corridor, and not at the market).
                1. Aleksandr21
                  Aleksandr21 3 December 2022 10: 24
                  +8
                  Quote: far diu
                  The general moral is that no one will artificially reduce production. Because no one will understand this act, because there are public and non-public agreements.


                  So we have already been shown the middle finger, and in response we make endless concessions ... i.e. with such a position, there is no question of any long-term victory, because. The West has calculated all the moves, and in order to win it is necessary to go beyond the established rules and break the system ... if they can do this, then why should we adhere to the rules in everything?

                  The only thing we can do (other than using nuclear weapons) is to cut off the supply of resources / raw materials for the world economy, and create an endless crisis in which the world elite will have to make concessions ... while we ourselves study the experience of the DPRK / Iran / Cuba and build economy / industry based on the domestic market and domestic demand + cooperate with neighbors, on market terms.
                  1. far diu
                    far diu 3 December 2022 10: 29
                    0
                    Only the West showed the middle finger, and if we go for an artificial decline, then China, India, and most of the friendly countries will also show it. And is it necessary? I don't think it's necessary, otherwise they would have done it a long time ago.
                    1. Aleksandr21
                      Aleksandr21 3 December 2022 10: 51
                      +6
                      The West simply calculated that the volumes of supplied energy resources/raw materials from Russia would not stop, but simply a redistribution of flows would take place on the market, if earlier (conditionally) American companies sold LNG to China, now they sell it to Europe and at a higher price.. .. who benefits from this? USA/China/India.

                      And if not everything is so simple with China (in the West), but sponsoring the Chinese economy - by Russia, they accepted, then the profits and benefits outweighed the current losses.

                      But with India, the story is more interesting .... Western companies are transferring production there, raw materials / energy will be supplied by Russia, a slave. power - India, but the profits will go to the owners of Western companies - i.e. to the west. Everyone is in the black (except us).

                      Therefore, the approach and methods of Russia need to be changed .... China and India are interested in the development of their economies, and the advantages that they can get from Russia, but regarding our profit in the long term, this is an open question. I note that I am not against trade with these countries, but very much in favor, but on market terms and without concessions at the expense of the Russian economy ...

                      The story is approximately the same with Turkey, we are building the Akkuyu nuclear power plant for them, making a gas hub, giving huge discounts ... as a result, the Turkish economy gets an advantage and can produce cheaper goods, but where will they go then? To the EAEU countries, Asia, Africa, BV, etc. - i.e. they will compete (including) with our manufacturers in the same markets.... is this the right policy? No.

                      Therefore, not all decisions of our government are "wise" and "correct".
                      1. far diu
                        far diu 3 December 2022 10: 58
                        +3
                        You can't argue with you here. That's right.

                        Text is too short
                  2. Eule
                    Eule 3 December 2022 18: 36
                    0
                    Oil from the Russian Federation is about one tenth of world production, that is, the rest of the world will be able to compensate for the damage from the cessation of supplies. But if the existence of the Russian Federation loses its meaning for the rest of the world, the consequences will be simply unpredictable. But in any case, they will be such that those who remain in the Russian Federation will envy both those who left and the dead.
                    1. Dali
                      Dali 9 December 2022 11: 41
                      0
                      Quote: eule
                      Oil from the Russian Federation is about one tenth of world production, that is, the rest of the world will be able to compensate for the damage from the cessation of supplies.
                      And you gr. with what fright for the whole world did they decide to say ?! belay

                      Quote: eule
                      But in any case, they will be such that those who remain in the Russian Federation will envy both those who left and the dead.
                      Dreaming is not harmful, it is harmful not to dream ... laughing gr.Vsepropalshchik ...
      2. Oleg812spb
        Oleg812spb 5 December 2022 23: 58
        0
        If Russia sells at 60, then this will be dumping, forcing other suppliers to lower the price as well. With all the ensuing consequences.
        1. everfreen
          everfreen 6 December 2022 17: 23
          0
          So Russia is already selling URALS at 60 when BRENT is 80.
  12. Gardamir
    Gardamir 3 December 2022 07: 45
    +10
    Do you remember how Gorbachev destroyed the socialist planned economy in order to tell how good it is with the market. And here is the market. Certainly in the short term. you can talk about cars in the yards. But over a long period, you can see how everything sags under the federal market. This is not even stagnation, this is the slow destruction of the country.
    And you can whine as much as you want. how bad it will be for the West with an oil ceiling, you need to think first of all about yourself.
    1. Mikhail Krivopalov
      Mikhail Krivopalov 3 December 2022 07: 58
      +10
      That's bad, people who consider themselves patriots are more worried about life and the economy in the WEST than in their homeland. Even on TV, all the discussions are exclusively in this vein.
      1. Boris55
        Boris55 3 December 2022 08: 46
        -13
        Quote: Gardamir
        Do you remember how Gorbachev destroyed the socialist planned economy,

        And before him, Brezhnev began to trade oil for dollars, although De Gaulle, who then came to the USSR, was ready to buy our oil for rubles ... The CMEA countries were ready to do the same, but dear Leonid Ilyich, oh how he wanted (after giving up the gold standard) to support the US economy...

        Quote: Mikhail Krivopalov
        more worried about life and the economy in the WEST than at home. Even on TV, all the discussions are exclusively in this vein.

        The media shape the worldview of people, not vice versa. People discuss what the media is imposing on them - Means of Manipulating Individuals. Your post only confirms this.
        1. Mikhail Krivopalov
          Mikhail Krivopalov 3 December 2022 09: 29
          +4
          Or maybe it's just easier when someone from outside is to blame and all attention is riveted to this someone from outside. I cannot fight with an external enemy, for me it will make the authorities more visible to him. And if you decide on internal issues, you yourself need to get up from the couch and act.
          1. Boris55
            Boris55 3 December 2022 09: 49
            -6
            The media is one of the tools of ideological power.

            "Freedom from ideologies is self-deception, but not spontaneously psychological, but purposefully cultivated by power conceptual. An ideology can be understood or not understood, accepted or denied, but members of society always face manifestations of this or that ideology, which is a shell of the concept of managing society by the holders of conceptual power.

            You will not deny the influence of advertising on us, will you?
            Ideological "advertising" affects us in the same way as product advertising.
        2. Aviator_
          Aviator_ 3 December 2022 14: 19
          +3
          although De Gaulle, who then came to the USSR,
          De Gaulle did not come then, but much earlier, in 1965, and Brezhnev switched (more precisely, left it as it was) to oil and gas for dollars in trade with the West after 1973.
          1. Boris55
            Boris55 4 December 2022 07: 30
            -4
            Quote: Aviator_
            De Gaulle did not come then, but much earlier, in 1965, and Brezhnev switched (more precisely, left it as it was) to oil and gas for dollars in trade with the West after 1973.

            "In 1966, the President, and in the past General of France, Charles de Gaulle, came to Russia, where he met with Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev."
            https://dzen.ru/media/codexhistory/francuzskii-general-o-staline-6091253387bf2977fcb60ed0

            Quote: Aviator_
            for oil and gas for dollars in trade with the West after 1973.

            “The volume of foreign exchange earnings of the USSR from oil exports is amazing. If in 1970 the USSR’s revenue was $1,05 billion, then in 1975 it was already $3,72 billion, and by 1980 it had increased to $15,74 billion. Almost 15 once!"
            1. Aviator_
              Aviator_ 4 December 2022 10: 27
              +3
              "In 1966, the President, and in the past General of France, Charles de Gaulle, came to Russia, where he met with Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev."
              Can you tell me the date? In the spring of 1966, in a pop performance by Ilya Nabatov (his prototype is Velyurov in "Pokrovsky Gates"), as a child, I heard his numerous options about France's withdrawal from NATO.
              "The volume of foreign exchange earnings of the USSR from oil exports is amazing. If in 1970 the revenue of the USSR amounted to $ 1,05 billion, then in 1975 it was already $ 3,72 billion
              That's right, this is after the doomsday war and the world energy crisis of 1973, I wrote about this.
              1. Boris55
                Boris55 4 December 2022 12: 42
                0
                Quote: Aviator_
                Can you tell me the date?

                June 20, 1966 - the historic visit of the first president of the French Fifth Republic, Charles de Gaulle, to the USSR took place



                One of the issues discussed was the issue of selling oil for rubles.
                1. frog
                  frog 4 December 2022 14: 58
                  +1
                  One of the issues discussed was the issue of selling oil for rubles.

                  But about rubles and other things - where would I read it?
                  About the fact that Charles flew in to talk for his Wishlist in Europe - still there. About the fact that he insisted on a visit, albeit private, to Stalin's grave - yes. About the usual window dressing in Siberia during his visit - too. But for the negotiations themselves (and regarding oil - too)) - how be it is not. If you have it, please give it a favour....
                2. Aviator_
                  Aviator_ 4 December 2022 15: 13
                  0
                  Thanks to. But this issue has not been positively resolved. It is not clear what the French asked for.
        3. frog
          frog 4 December 2022 10: 50
          +4
          And before him, Brezhnev began to trade oil for dollars, although De Gaulle, who then came to the USSR, was ready to buy our oil for rubles ...

          Le grand Charles was ready for a lot. And very quickly it all ended in the Parisian spring, suddenly. Which, suddenly, after the departure of de Gaulle, ended very quickly ....
          As for the hoteliers of the "CMEA countries" and even "dear Leonid Ilyich" a little ... you exaggerate))). Are we polite people?
          Starting with the fact that we, in general, could make pipes ourselves, and ending with the fact that the Union needed the currency. Unlike rubles...
      2. Gardamir
        Gardamir 3 December 2022 10: 03
        +2
        people who consider themselves patriots
        If you don't mind, I'll correct you. "People pretending to be patriots"
        1. The comment was deleted.
  13. rocket757
    rocket757 3 December 2022 07: 53
    +1
    And so everything is clear. The oil market due to the global recession may soon become a surplus. However, why then is OPEC in the world, and why is Russia so quickly learning to manipulate the volume of export deliveries.
    Why can there be a decrease in the consumption of petroleum products???
    Obviously, there is NOT ONE reason!
    The most serious ones can be listed, but a bunch of small ones will remain out of the attention of the majority ...
  14. Mikhail Krivopalov
    Mikhail Krivopalov 3 December 2022 07: 55
    +8
    I don’t understand a little, you can often hear that now is 1941 and the whole country needs to rally to fight the common enemy - the West. But I don’t remember something that in 1941 Stalin would bargain with Hitler about the price for the supply of resources.
  15. Battle Toads
    Battle Toads 3 December 2022 08: 07
    -9
    Quote: Mikhail Krivopalov
    I don’t understand a little, you can often hear that now is 1941 and the whole country needs to rally to fight the common enemy - the West. But I don’t remember something that in 1941 Stalin would bargain with Hitler about the price for the supply of resources.


    So Russia is not trading. The price ceiling is only a headache for the West and not for Russia, let them do what they want.
  16. Architect
    Architect 3 December 2022 08: 35
    +7
    Quote from BattleToads
    . The price ceiling is only a headache for the West and not for Russia, let them do what they want.

    Only the West does not know about it.
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 3 December 2022 10: 14
      -8
      Quote: Architect
      Only the West does not know about it.

      We'll live until Monday.
  17. KSVK
    KSVK 3 December 2022 12: 09
    -3
    Quote: Mikhail Krivopalov
    Oil is sold not by Russia, but by oil companies that have their own owners interested in obtaining maximum profit, and the interests of these owners do not always coincide with the interests of the Russian Federation.

    Can you name AT LEAST ONE oil-producing Russian company where the controlling stake is not owned by the state?
  18. nikolaevskiy78
    nikolaevskiy78 3 December 2022 13: 10
    +2
    The authors dropped out of the review two points
    1) The fact that Washington has been negotiating with the N. Maduro regime for half a year and now the parties have come to a framework agreement that 2/3 of the sanctions are lifted, and new elections are possible in the country.
    2) Scenarios of trading at a discount for Urals oil. Namely, this actual discount in the price formula plays the role of a peculiar function. The de facto discount is in the region of $30+. It turns out that intermediary traders in operations earn a premium to the usual discount of 10-15 dollars. Here, different scenarios are possible when introducing a ceiling, because traders will want to not only maintain margin, but also increase it.
    3) If in this situation Russia rests and begins to reduce production and supply, then under the OPEC + deal, the other participants can quite logically increase this volume without violating the agreement. And here again stands up to its full height No. 1 - Venezuela. Russia is involved in investments there, but these are too large volumes, so Venezuela can also give us raw materials for loans and supply them to the United States - Caracas will not have a deficit. And the oil itself still goes to the USA and ... to Cuba - such are the zigzags of history. And all again within the framework of OPEC +
    And this is only part of the questions on the price ceiling problem.
  19. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 3 December 2022 13: 49
    0
    It is not worth commenting on Padymova and Co. You cannot study the oil market in one day. I spit on it, I take only tops for the day.
  20. alexey_444
    alexey_444 3 December 2022 19: 13
    -2
    As they say, everything that is not done for the better, how many copies were broken about import substitution, until they started to deal with it, how much slipping from the oil needle and that's a miracle, Kosygin would have clapped his hands, it was oil that ruined his self-financing. Finally, the growth of effective managers will wither on small oil revenues, they will have to deal with the real economy, and everyone scolds Putin, oh well done.
  21. odisey3000
    odisey3000 3 December 2022 19: 13
    -1
    Then suddenly, the author’s Turkey became a super hero, in the form of an immortal Kashchei. But as one smart person used to say, there is one for every trickster, well, then let everyone think for himself. Let’s start in order, Erdogan will have elections soon and let’s say, not all in Turkey they love him very much. In Syria, we don’t touch him much, but remember when the Turks shot down our plane, how they were completely crushed, they started to howl. Suddenly nobody needs Turkish tomatoes .. South Stream is beneficial to everyone, including Turkey, where they will take gas that America is lucky. Nuclear power plants, the Kurdish issue. it is necessary for our officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs not to sit on the priest evenly, but to fuss and work, work and work again. Soviet Russia, too, was not despised by anyone in the world at first, so what, it stood and won. There is an example of ancestors to follow. We stand. Moreover, Russia has everything for this.
  22. iouris
    iouris 4 December 2022 00: 34
    +2
    "Russian oil" is a figure of speech. This world now has about 30..50 owners. And this is not your compatriot Friedman, permanently residing in Londongrad on welfare.
  23. The comment was deleted.
  24. Kotofeich
    Kotofeich 4 December 2022 11: 07
    +2
    Quote: Garik Gorkin
    An independent country will not keep its money in Western banks

    And, you can give an example of such independent countries.
    1. Mr. 9mm
      Mr. 9mm 5 December 2022 00: 06
      0
      North Korea.
      The comment is too short.
      1. Kotofeich
        Kotofeich 5 December 2022 18: 21
        +1
        Quote from Mr. 9mm
        North Korea.

        Bravo! laughing I thought so.
  25. iouris
    iouris 4 December 2022 11: 57
    +4
    Non-economic forms of coercion is a method of punishing the losing party in the form of indemnity. Before the start of the WZO, at least three hundred billion greenery was sent to the West. Apparently it was a prepayment. Who sent? The one who foresees everything in time and is not afraid of you.
    Who is the losing side? Considering a business scheme like "Privatization of profits and nationalization of losses", the answer is obvious.
    Woe to the vanquished.
  26. Ivan Slavyanin
    Ivan Slavyanin 5 December 2022 06: 33
    0
    We wait. The hot phase will end soon.
  27. Horn
    Horn 5 December 2022 14: 55
    +1
    We will sell for 60. And if they put up a ceiling of 40 bucks, we will sell for 40. If only "not to lose the reputation of a reliable partner." And then suddenly the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have enough diesel fuel in the operation to dispose of the Slavs.
  28. Igorash
    Igorash 5 December 2022 15: 15
    0
    The problem is not in those who want it, but the problem is in the sole trader ..... And they are well aware of this ... Don't believe me? Well, let's wait.