New Year: to expect difficulties in the air or not?
Basically, this is a continuation of the topic covered here: What will they shoot at us with??. The topic, let's say, is not quite simple, because the stock of Soviet missiles for air defense systems coming to the finish line is an all-Ukrainian problem. And, of course, they will solve it, moreover, at the expense of the Western allies.
This is completely understandable, those who could share missiles for the Buk and S-300 are simply gone. Well, almost none. And the Ukrainians themselves have little reason to remain on the Soviet platform. No matter how masterpiece the Buk is, it was made in Russia, which means that it is known inside and out. All strengths and weaknesses.
Of course, knowing is not at all the same as using, but at least in theory this is the case.
Ukraine will simply have to rearm with NATO air defense systems. Simply because there are no missiles for the complexes in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and there is nowhere to get them. After all, if you look at the geography of sales of the Buk air defense system of all modifications in the world, then the situation for Ukraine is so-so: there are countries that have Buk, but they will not sell them even for money. This is primarily Russia, then Belarus, Syria and Egypt. Yes, Venezuela. It is clear why such a list of "unsold"?
And… everything?
In fact, yes. Armenia (6 pcs.), Georgia (12 pcs.), Algeria (3 pcs.), Kazakhstan (3 pcs.), Cyprus (4 pcs.) - this is not serious. You understand, this is for peace, not for war. And not for free, of course. And, of course, there is no money in Ukraine. Only under loans or generally better for free, in the framework of the fight against world Evil, that is, Russia.
Unfortunately for us, the air defense of Ukraine was destroyed only by Mr. Konashenkov and the media engaged by him. There, in pink reports, all the radars were destroyed, the planes burned down at the airfields, the air defense systems were left with scraps that were unable to provide significant resistance to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
At the same time, some “colleagues” from well-known Russian media, talking about successes in destroying Ukrainian air defense, listing what, in their opinion, survived there, give out phrases like “At the same time, a special air operation to suppress precisely the air defense systems of the Russian Aerospace Forces was not carried out.”
In fact, everything is not so great. And it is a pity that such an operation was not carried out, it would be easier for the ground troops to work, having the unconditional advantage of the Russian aviation in the sky.
But alas, the Ukrainian air defense mobile systems are still working, the early warning radars are far from completely knocked out, and the help of the allies who track the takeoffs of Russian aircraft is simply priceless.
And in general, why expose an expensive radar to a Russian missile attack if the NATO satellite constellation will provide the necessary information about take-offs, and the luxurious reconnaissance aircraft of the Boeing E-3 "Sentry" AWACS and RC-135 unit will track where Russian aircraft are flying from a safe distance and already on the route they will be organized a "meeting". As happened with two Su-34s two months ago.
So the lack of a continuous radar field of the Ukrainian military is not very scary, since a maximum of 10 minutes after takeoff they know where Russian planes are flying and in what quantities.
And these planes (as well as cruise missiles and devil-mopeds) must be met with something. Naturally, it is desirable that these be air defense systems capable of doing this.
How can the West help Ukraine?
The list is not very large, but every element in it is worth thinking about. In the previous article, some of this list has already been touched upon, but today we will look, so to speak, in bulk.
1. "Garbage truck", aka "Patriot" air defense system
The issue here is numbers. 150% that PAC-3 does not shine for Ukrainians, but PAC-2 is quite a good long-range air defense system. Universal, able to work both on aircraft and on missiles.
The probability of hitting an aircraft is 0,8-0,9, a tactical missile is 0,3-0,4 with one missile in the absence of interference. The height of the destruction of ballistic targets is up to 11 km, the radius is 20 km against ballistic targets. A target with an EPR of 0,5 m² (missile) will be seen by the Patriot radar for 100 km, an EPR of 1,5 m² (fighter) - for 130 km, an EPR of 10 m² (bomber) - for 180 km.
How bad or good is Patriot? Well, there are statistics on the use of air defense systems during the Persian Gulf War in January-February 1991, when the Patriots repelled attacks by Iraqi missiles on the territory of Israel and Saudi Arabia. 93 missile launches by the Iraqi Armed Forces were registered at various targets. 49 Iraqi missiles were successfully intercepted, 4 were conditionally intercepted (the missile was shot down, but the warhead worked), and 40 missiles hit the target.
В history entered the penultimate launch on February 25, 1991, when the missile was fired at the territory of Saudi Arabia, the interception attempt failed, and the missile definitely hit the building of the barracks of the Dahran air base. As a result, 28 American servicemen were killed and 100 people were injured.
But these are the statistics of work against ballistic missiles. With cruise missiles and aircraft, everything is much simpler. The receipt of such complexes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine would solve many problems, would complicate the life of Russian pilots and rocket scientists, but ...
But the cost of one launch is still about three million dollars. And that, you know, is money.
2. SAM MIM-23B "Hawk" Phase III
The language does not dare to call “Hawk” modern, but the complex has strengths: more than a lot of air defense systems and missiles were riveted to it, therefore there is something to profit in favor of poor Ukrainians. It is a fact. The Spaniards will give it back, especially if the Germans then fit something new to them.
Since the 60s, the Hawk has regularly taken part in second-rate conflicts and had good results. For example, during the capture of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990, Kuwaiti anti-aircraft gunners shot down two Su-22 Iraqi Air Force aircraft and two helicopters. One is actually his.
The range of the "Hawk" is about 40 km, the maximum height of hitting targets is 18 km. That is, practically an analogue of our S-125 "Neva" / "Pechora", that is, antiquity. However, antiquity is nasty and capable of shooting down flying targets. "Hawk" is not very effective against small targets, but in any case, there is a job for him. The main advantage is that it is cheap and no one feels sorry for it.
3. SAM Krotal-NG
"Rattlesnake" if in the most modern modification - it's unpleasant. French all-weather short-range anti-aircraft missile system designed to deal with air targets in the range of medium, low and (importantly) extremely low altitudes.
10 km in range, 6 km in height. 8 missiles are placed on one launcher. Warhead weighing 14 kg, directional. In general, something like our Thor, but it comes with a chic French thermal imager for hunting small targets.
It has not yet been used in battles, but the French believe that a trial by combat is just right. And to test the performance of their air defense system, they sent two batteries to Ukrainians. It is possible that there will be more deliveries, it is not a fact that NG modifications can upgrade something older from one of the operators in exchange for NG.
The complex is quite simple technologically, and therefore the Chinese and Koreans are happy to copy it.
4. SAM "Skyguard-Aspide"
The Aspid is driven by the good Spaniards, who, at the expense of deliveries to Ukraine, decided to rejuvenate their armed forces. That is, this is an Italian variation from Spada called Toledo.
According to Spanish sources, the actual real effective range of the Aspid missile (this is again the Italian version of the American AIM-7 Sparrow missile) as part of the Toledo was up to 12 km, and the reach in height was up to 5,5 km.
The air defense system did not participate in the hostilities, but, apparently, it will have to. The Spaniards willingly change their "Toledo" to NASAMS, so that the Italian air defense systems will still have adventures in Ukraine.
5. SAM M1097 "Avenger"
"Avenger" is a chic cart of the 21st century. But not a machine gun (although, what am I talking about, a 12,7-mm Browning is present in the configuration), but an anti-aircraft missile. Four launch containers with Stingers were installed on the Humvee, the dimensions of the machine made it possible to place a radar, a thermal imager, a laser rangefinder and a Mk.12 Friend or Foe identification system.
The "Avenger", according to the developers, can hit air targets (including small ones) on a collision course and in pursuit at altitudes of 0,5-3,8 km and ranges of 0,5-5,5 km.
A certain number of "Avengers" have already been delivered to Ukraine, but apparently in a stripped-down configuration. It is forbidden to supply the "Friend or foe" determinant of this model to countries that are not members of NATO. But even without the Mk.12, the Avenger poses a threat to aircraft (especially helicopters) due to the fact that, unlike the conventional Stinger MANPADS, the complex has a more advanced set of detection tools.
6. SAM NASAMS-2
The Norwegian-American system is good. The main feature is the open software architecture, which makes it possible to interface the complex with various types of radars and missiles. In the conditions of Ukraine, where all radars are Soviet models, this is especially important.
The complex is very complex. For its correct and accurate operation, training of the personnel of the Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be required, but this is unlikely to be a problem. The only question is time.
A standard AMRAAM missile has a horizontal range of up to 25 km. There is an ER model with a flight range increased to 40 km. It is believed that NASAMS-2, using missiles from other systems, can confidently hit targets at distances up to 180 km.
The complex has not yet had a combat use, so the deliveries to Ukraine have certain goals.
7. SAM SLM IRIS-T
Without exaggeration, this is the most modern and most dangerous complex on the list. The range of missiles is up to 40 km, in height - up to 20 km.
New communication standards and next-generation equipment make it possible to place a command center at a distance of up to 20 km from launchers. The high sensitivity radar is able to detect low-flying small targets with a high degree of probability.
A feature of the battery of three launchers, eight missiles each, is the ability to direct all 24 missiles simultaneously at different targets. So far, this is not available to any air defense system of other countries, including Russian ones.
The IRIS SLM missile is capable of actively maneuvering in flight thanks to thrust vector control. In this, the Italians and Norwegians who worked on the engine achieved impressive success. Infrared homing missiles with forced cooling, which makes infrared homing more accurate and "tenacious" and allows you not to be distracted by heat traps.
Well, the Giraffe-4A radar, capable of tracking the movement of 150 targets, is the icing on the cake.
The complex is very dangerous. The first battery has already arrived at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three more are expected in 2023.
What and how to be afraid?
You will have to be afraid of the complexes themselves, and the possible good training of their calculations. In any case, the most advanced weaponry without well-trained personnel is a pile of metal and semiconductors. For us, the problem is that the Western allies will spare no time to train Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners.
In general, it is worth noting that Ukrainian students are very capable. Well, if they can shoot down modern Su-34 bombers, ambushing them from ZU-23-2 in the back of trucks, then what can we say about what can happen if they are given modern air defense systems at their disposal? Nothing good. For us.
Some unfortunate experts today are blowing bubbles, they say, all this equipment is of short and medium range, that is, it does not pose any danger to Russian aircraft.
I would recommend that they often watch the video of the destruction of aircraft "at close range", from a minimum distance. For a general understanding of the situation.
Today, Ukrainians are using a very unpleasant tactic: SAMs do not turn on their radars and do not identify themselves. Primary data comes from American reconnaissance aircraft and from satellites that track the movements of Russian aircraft and predict their routes. And only when the distance becomes minimal, the radar should be turned on, aiming and launching the rocket. And it's very hard to get away from it. This is taken from the stories of pilots and navigators of our air regiment.
So then a small or medium range, there is not much difference. Here, rather, what is more important is how well the complex can work on any targets, from the Shahed to the Su-34. But this will have to be verified, unfortunately, in practice. Our pilots.
To what extent can the supplied number of batteries solve the problems of rocket attacks on Ukraine? Most likely, batteries will not be able to solve such a problem. They are still too few. Another question is how effectively the Ukrainians will be able to use the air defense systems that have come to them, what tasks they will solve with their help - this is the most interesting question.
But we will receive an answer to it only next year, when all the "gifts" will come to their destination.
Here, of course, I would like it not to reach, but if you look at examples of the past period, there is no doubt that the “gifts” will reach the recipient. To our great regret.
The fact that with the advent of modern air defense systems of the Ukrainian air defense system, the situation in the sky will change is understandable. The only question is how and to what extent. We'll see, there's not much left.
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