Military Review

Depleted stocks and limited production: the negative consequences of military assistance to Ukraine

Depleted stocks and limited production: the negative consequences of military assistance to Ukraine
A batch of American grenade launchers before being sent to Ukraine. Photo by the US Department of Defense

Over the past few months, a number of foreign states have been providing military assistance to the Kyiv regime. He is given various military equipment, weapons and ammunition from the presence of his own armed forces. These processes naturally lead to the depletion of existing parks and reserves, and the scale of this problem is gradually increasing. At the same time, it is not possible to correct the current situation in the current situation.

Aid volumes

A total of several dozen countries, mainly NATO member states, provided this or that military-technical assistance to the Kyiv regime. At the same time, the largest volume of supplies falls on the United States. They provide a wide range of weapons, ammunition and equipment of various types.

On November 20, the US State Department published the latest supply statistics of recent months. So, since February, more than 88 thousand tons of weapons and various property have been sent to Ukraine with a total value of approx. 21,5 billion dollars. Military transport was involved in transportation aviation, sea vessels and vehicles.

A large number of weapons and compatible ammunition have been delivered. USA shipped approx. 180 towed guns and more than 1 million shells of various calibers and types, incl. precision munitions. For 38 MLRS M142, several thousand rockets were transferred. Anti-tank missile systems (about 110) and man-portable air defense systems (about 1400 units) are supplied in large quantities. More than 10 units were provided as part of several aid packages. small weapons and 70 million rounds.

Another American cargo. Photo US State Department

Back in the summer, Pentagon officials first mentioned that the current supply volumes are a potential threat to the US military. Weapons and ammunition for transfer are being withdrawn from their own units and depots, resulting in an apparent reduction in fleets and stocks. In the future, this could lead to a drop in the combat effectiveness of the armed forces, incl. within a full scale conflict.

It was also noted that such a “expenditure” of property exceeds current production volumes. It was not possible to make up for the losses within a reasonable time. At the same time, the US leadership planned to continue helping the Kyiv regime, which should have led to a further reduction in stocks and exacerbation of existing problems.

Other NATO countries and their foreign allies also provide this or that assistance, although its volumes are inferior to American deliveries. However, the United States is openly putting pressure on its allies and demanding that they increase their assistance to the Kyiv regime. Complaints about the lack of products, even for their own defense, do not pay attention.

Problems persist

Despite all the fears and warnings, the United States and other countries continue to send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine - which leads to a predictable deterioration in the stockpile situation. As a result, now the military and political leadership of foreign states not only draws up plans to help the Kyiv regime, but also draws attention to their own problems.

US military transport aviation makes a big contribution to the supply process. Photo US State Department

Halifax, Canada hosted the Halifax International Security Forum last week. One of his main topics was the depletion of NATO's stockpiles of weapons and measures to prevent further deterioration of this situation. According to the Army Times, during the forum there were several interesting statements about current problems and difficulties, as well as about the prospects for the current situation.

Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, noted that now, when allocating aid to Ukraine, one has to take into account the risks to one's own security. He also described the root cause of such problems. According to the admiral, for many years the stocks of various armies were, at best, half as much as required. This was done due to the lack of military-political risks or due to lack of funding. As a result, many countries in the field of security adhered to the tactics of "just-in-time, just-enough" ("when needed and how much is enough").

The Chief of Defense Staff of Canada, General Wayne Eyre, revealed his vision of the problem. According to him, the command has to constantly calculate and determine which materiel can be sent to Ukraine, and which should be left to itself in case of unforeseen circumstances. With all this, it is necessary to take into account the possibilities of the industry for the production of new products.

Not so long ago, General Eyre was at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems enterprise and got acquainted with the production of 155-mm shells. He noted that a lot of suppliers are involved in the production of ammunition, and it is not easy to organize such production. At the same time, the Canadian army needs a large number of shells: to date, it has transferred approx. 25 thousand artillery rounds.

One of the first M777 howitzers for Ukrainian formations. Photo by the US Department of Defense

The commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Sweden, General Mikael Byden, also complained about the current situation. According to him, over the past 30 years, the Swedish army has faced constant cuts. She had enough time, but not enough money. However, now new tasks have been set, the budget is increasing, and the situation should improve.

Production restrictions

Despite the increase in funding, another problem remains related to production. According to M. Buden, all countries expect that industry will be able to satisfy all the requirements of the armies within a reasonable time. However, the demand for military products already exceeds the possible production volumes.

It must be taken into account that not all NATO countries and friendly states have a developed defense industry. Owners of such industries will be able to replenish their stocks and restore parks, while other countries will have to wait in line - and getting the desired products is still not guaranteed.

At a forum in Halifax, Dutch Defense Minister Onno Eichelsheim said that his department is already looking for ways out of the current situation. Together with several other countries, the Netherlands is negotiating with European arms manufacturers and trying to agree on an increase in the rate of production of all necessary products. Whether the desired results will be achieved is unknown.

One of the first episodes of the use of the M142 MLRS. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

Exits from the situation

In general, the current situation is quite simple. The United States and other countries are actively supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, and their industry does not have time to make up for such “losses”. All this leads to a constant reduction in stockpiles and the emergence of new security threats. It should be noted that this situation is not hopeless - although obvious solutions will not suit the American leadership.

The easiest way to protect the armed forces from a shortage of weapons is to stop supporting the Kyiv regime. Recent months have shown that all measures and efforts of this kind are at least useless. By refusing to allocate new aid packages, foreign states will be able to save money and reduce the risks for their own armies.

Another way out is to expand the production of the necessary products. However, increasing capacity takes time and additional investment. Whether the US and its allies will be able to find the necessary resources is unknown. At the same time, the general situation is not conducive to optimistic forecasts.

Such rearmament programs may face new challenges of various kinds. We can already talk about the beginning of the economic and energy crisis, which is sure to hit the defense industry as well. At best, these events will lead to a rise in the cost of products and an increase in the required costs. However, more serious consequences are possible. In particular, some contractors and contractors may face fatal problems.

Natural result: foreign armored vehicles are destroyed. Photo UNM DPR

Uncertain Future

How events will develop in the near future is unclear. The military and political leadership of the United States is ready to continue to support the Kyiv regime financially and with the supply of materiel. The Pentagon's warnings about the depletion of its own reserves and insufficient production capacity have so far been ignored.

Whether other countries with smaller reserves and more modest economies will be able to continue similar assistance is unknown. The US will put pressure on them to achieve the result they want - regardless of the negative consequences for the "allies". These countries are already trying to find ways out of the current situation, but so far there is no talk of a successful solution to the problems.

Thus, foreign states helping the Kyiv regime have already faced a number of serious problems, and the situation continues to worsen. The simplest way out of the current situation does not suit them, and maintaining the current course is associated with new problems. What this policy will eventually lead to, only time will tell.

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  1. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 23 November 2022 06: 34
    Why worry about them! They gave the ukram everything for nothing, especially when they got rid of obsolete weapons. The US military-industrial complex, first of all, will receive an additional incentive to work and will themselves upgrade their entire arsenal and all NATO countries. The threat from them will only return!
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 23 November 2022 06: 43
      Quote: Vladimir61
      They gave the ukram everything for nothing, especially when they got rid of obsolete weapons.

      In addition, the production capacities of the "partner" countries are several times higher than those of Russia. And they don't fight at the same time.
      1. Civil
        Civil 23 November 2022 07: 15
        Well, now the "help" will end, and then we will go on the offensive?
      2. Eule
        Eule 23 November 2022 11: 59
        And they just know how to build factories and organize production. During the Second World War, there was a multiple increase in the production of all types of ammunition, aircraft, weapons, and everything in general. So whining for the press can be overlooked.
      3. paul3390
        paul3390 23 November 2022 12: 32
        the production capacities of the "partner" countries are several times higher than those of Russia

        There are aspects here. Westerners also have their own problems. And if we say in the production of aviation and ships we definitely can’t compete with them, then let’s say in armored vehicles - I don’t think that our capacities are much worse. As well as ammunition. And air defense. In these areas - the Soviet Union was traditionally strong, and if not everything has been stolen by highly efficient owners - there are chances ..
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 23 November 2022 12: 56
          Quote: paul3390
          let's say for armored vehicles - I don't think that our capacities are much worse.

          Hi! hi Worse. Tanks are only one UVZ. Ammunition is also worse. Air defense agrees, but not the level of the Union.
          1. paul3390
            paul3390 23 November 2022 13: 46
            Unfortunately, it is now difficult to judge who can produce what and how much.. Capitalism, sir. But - in the same USA, tanks do not produce anything at all! Only the old chickens. Of course, they are whipping that the type of power is mothballed - but how realistic it is to launch them after 20 years of inactivity is an interesting question. What is left of the technological chains and, most importantly, of trained personnel .. There is an opinion that, in fact, nothing. And it is not very clear whether mattress covers will be able to abruptly resume the production of heavy armored vehicles. And so - in many positions. Eurogay capacities are generally hardly visible - well, how many Leclercs and Challengers were produced there over the decades - a couple of hundred each? Germany - yes, it was once an extremely serious player, but now? Something doubts gnaw ..
      4. meandr51
        meandr51 Yesterday, 01: 45
        So it seems. It will not be possible to expand production and find resources quickly.
    2. zloybond
      zloybond 25 November 2022 18: 37
      I think the author drowns wishful thinking. It’s just that he’s a little superficial so sparing without delving into the topic. BUT, in fact, if you look at the budgetary allocations of military contracts in the European Union, then on the portals you can see a boom in the production of military enterprises. As well as a colossal write-off of the balance of military depots - zeroing (ideal disposal) is underway instead of spending states on real disposal costs. Those. they ideally spend only on logistics. Instead, judging by their reporting, updating inventory. So: aFtor zhzhOt !!!
  2. Aaron Zawi
    Aaron Zawi 23 November 2022 06: 38
    Well, they're in no hurry. They will gradually rearm and replenish warehouses. It is not their soldiers and officers who die and come home disabled.
    1. Aerodrome
      Aerodrome 23 November 2022 06: 43
      Depleted stocks and limited production: the negative consequences of military assistance to Ukraine
      I don’t believe in this “Yaroslavna’s lament” there is this goodness, it’s stocked up for more than one war,
    2. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 23 November 2022 06: 44
      Quote: Aron Zaavi
      It is not their soldiers and officers who die and come home disabled.

      This is called a competent multi-move, and not what is presented to us from the TV screens.
      1. Klaus8691
        Klaus8691 23 November 2022 07: 25
        With our "multi-move" and "myesche-beginner" we will soon find ourselves at the starting lines. And our dead and crippled fighters for him are so, associated costs ...
    3. Stas157
      Stas157 23 November 2022 07: 06
      . So, since February, more than 88 thousand. t weapons and various property with a total value of approx. 21,5 billion

      This is about 15 railway trains. For 9 months, this is complete nonsense. Our deliveries are much larger. It should be every day according to the composition, or even not one at a time.
  3. next322
    next322 23 November 2022 06: 47
    And does the Supreme Commander and the General Staff know about the supply of weapons to Ukraine from Poland? If he knows, then what measures is he taking? supply routes?
    1. Klaus8691
      Klaus8691 23 November 2022 07: 12
      Never! To whom the war is, to whom the mother is dear! Only the wallets are even more stuffed ...
  4. Galleon
    Galleon 23 November 2022 06: 59
    The author forgot to say that for the indicated reason, the dollar will soon collapse and a civil war will begin in America. laughing
  5. gafovec
    gafovec 23 November 2022 07: 03
    I remember that in the spring there were the same articles about the BEGINNING of a shortage of ammunition among the Ukrainians and NATO ... Then there was a series of our "gestures of goodwill", "regroupings", "straightening the lines of military contact" ...

    What's again??? Need to prepare for new "difficult decisions"?
  6. bdfy_bdfy
    bdfy_bdfy 23 November 2022 07: 21
    this is the second article on this topic today, you can talk about it endlessly reassuring yourself, but the Ukrainian arms express works like a Swiss watch, and the Aerospace Forces simply does not work.
  7. Skif84
    Skif84 23 November 2022 07: 33
    And I like such articles, from the series a little more and everything will end, you just need to be patient. The author gave a lot of arguments and arguments in favor of his idea, about the depletion of weapons stocks, the only thing that confuses me is that there is no figure anywhere on how many of those stocks NATO has and how many of these stocks have been delivered in percentage terms. For example, on BTT, enemy voices slander that less than 7% of what is being mothballed was delivered during the nine months of the war. For shells for supplied artillery systems - 5% of the total stock. Somehow this does not look particularly like a depletion of reserves.
    1. FoBoss_VM
      FoBoss_VM 23 November 2022 08: 32
      Here they are exactly like "have not started yet" wassat
  8. FoBoss_VM
    FoBoss_VM 23 November 2022 08: 31
    Crying of Yaroslavl ... Tensions at the front from these crocodile tears did not decrease, which means they found a way out. And they will continue to look for him, they have no way out. Just like ours... Either win or lose
  9. Illanatol
    Illanatol 23 November 2022 09: 04
    Quote: Vladimir61
    They gave the ukram everything for nothing, especially when they got rid of obsolete weapons.

    Much was given for free. As for the "obsolete" ... Would you be kind enough to give a more modern analogue of the "jevelins", "stingers", M777? And the West German air defense system, which even the Bundeswehr itself has not yet received into service?
  10. Illanatol
    Illanatol 23 November 2022 09: 09
    Quote: Ingvar 72
    In addition, the production capacities of the "partner" countries are several times higher than those of Russia. And they don't fight at the same time.

    Production facilities in Western countries belong to private capital. And private owners decide what to use them for. Their highest priority is their own benefit, not the wishes of Zelensky or even Biden.
    Fortunately, there are other clients who already have to pay a penalty for the failure of contracts.

    In addition, not only production capacity is needed, but also raw materials, energy and skilled labor in abundance, as well as the absence of problems with logistics.
    It's not all smooth sailing lately.
  11. Shamil88
    Shamil88 23 November 2022 10: 20
    For half a year now I have been hearing these tales about the depletion of the West’s arsenal, this is apparently designed for old people and people who come home after work turn on federal channels, and there Europe with Khokhlami will soon freeze, weapons are running out, etc., which means we will win soon, but in fact thanks to Gazprom and uninterrupted supplies to partners, all gas storage facilities in Europe are filled to the ceiling, Ukrainians do not feel shell hunger, and each time they are given more and more and more modern, the economy and industry of the West can easily provide all the necessary three such Ukraine without straining
    1. Thorvlobnor IV
      Thorvlobnor IV 23 November 2022 12: 16
      Poor, unfortunate NATO, which began to run out of 155mm shells. And the fact that the RF Armed Forces began to run out of living soldiers, which urgently required the start of a feverish mobilization of everything that a machine gun can hold in their hands, is not a problem, no.
  12. Maks1995
    Maks1995 23 November 2022 10: 41
    How many notes have not been written yet - and they send rubbish, and stocks run out, and Ukraine is tired of the West, and Zelensky will be removed, and they are stuffed with drugs, and they plundered everything, and we all hit, and everyone fled / fled / plundered / shot ... but help is still coming, and ukraine resists "remote accession"

    It is logical that at first they give something older, does not require bureaucracy when decommissioning, super-training, there is no danger of revealing secrets, and in small doses - in order to have time to process ...

    Well, the military-industrial complex is already enjoying the new golden rain ...
  13. AdAstra
    AdAstra 23 November 2022 11: 22
    Is it from the same opera that without gas they will freeze, etc.?
  14. km-21
    km-21 23 November 2022 13: 16
    Depleted stocks and limited production: the negative consequences of military assistance to Ukraine

    I would equate the replication of such disinformation with sabotage and information sabotage. The West, without any problems, is able to supply Kyiv with more than enough weapons to successfully confront Russia. But so far it does not do this for political reasons. And we, instead of realizing the true capabilities of our enemy, are trying to console ourselves with illusions about his (the West's) weakness. Instead of being as mobilized as possible, we peacefully relax. Guys, stop relaxing, otherwise this will all end very badly.
  15. Bogalex
    Bogalex 23 November 2022 17: 33
    These processes naturally lead to the depletion of existing parks and reserves, and the scale of this problem is gradually increasing. At the same time, it is not possible to correct the current situation in the current situation.

    Why would "correction of the current situation in the current situation is not possible"? Have European factories forgotten how to produce weapons in order to fit into the author's concepts?
  16. Bogalex
    Bogalex 23 November 2022 17: 40
    Again, an article from the cycle "they are doing badly and will be even worse."
    It is a pity that there is no answer to the question "is everything good with us and when will it get even better?". Better so that at least all the sorrows of the last months are beaten off.
  17. Canna Steinfeldgrubber
    Canna Steinfeldgrubber Yesterday, 00: 10
    What are you mourning here ... Poor Americans .... poor Germans ... and others like them. They will update their fleet of equipment with a bang, replace the assortment in warehouses. Vpk will be raised. And not Ukraine, as you think, but Russia will pay for all this. At least even from frozen accounts. They will find a tool for this.