What will they shoot at us with?
It’s not that another win on the Ukrainian side, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine really count on the fact that the supply of air defense systems from Western partners will be able to turn the tide in terms of conquering airspace in favor of Ukraine.
The other day, victory was celebrated due to the fact that the American company Raytheon Technologies supplied NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's joyful news for Ukrainians? Well, if on a global scale, then yes. If you look at the quantity, perhaps the degree of joy will drop noticeably, because the complexes were delivered TWO.
TWO anti-aircraft missile systems, albeit the latest generation. No, to cover some particularly important object with them, this is quite enough. In order to have a serious impact on the situation as a whole - of course not.
The Americans promised to deliver two more NASAMS air defense systems "within a few weeks." Such an incredible speed is due to the fact that most of the components have already been produced and it only remained to assemble the air defense system.
But with regards to other complexes that did not lie in warehouses in the form of parts and components, it took a little longer with them. Ukraine can count on the six promised NASAMS air defense systems to be delivered “within a few months.”
It is worth emphasizing that "several" is both two and eight. Two months is still all right, but eight months already does not look so optimistic and smacks of real zrada. After all, you must admit that the point is not to happily report on the work done and the assistance provided, but to actually strengthen the Ukrainian army. And ten air defense systems, stretched in deliveries for a year - well, this is just some kind of posturing.
And yes, from our side it looks just great. I can only imagine what kind of laughter stands within the walls of Almaz-Antey, where our air defense systems are assembled.
The German allies are also great in this regard. They also contributed to the strengthening of Ukraine's air defense, putting ONE SAM IRIS-T. And promising three more after a while.
Yes, IRIS-T is a very, very serious air defense system. Something between our Buk-M3 and Tor-M2. IRIS-T allows you to hit targets at a distance of 1 km to 40 km and an altitude of up to 20 km, that is, it works further than the Tor, but closer than the Buk. The complex is very good, judging by the numbers given by the manufacturer Diehl Defense.
In total, we get 10 (ten) NASAMS and 4 (four) IRIS-T.
It's a lot? This is very little. Considering the state of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today, forced to use very old missiles that fly to the devil knows where, these 14 complexes will not correct or improve the situation at all.
Of course, both Raytheon Technologies and Diehl Defense are counting on the successful use of their products in Ukraine, and in this regard, receiving orders from other countries for their products. For money, of course.
And it is very doubtful that something will break off to Ukraine in excess of what the Americans and Germans can supply as demo samples of their weapons.
Well, except for the Hawk air defense system, which the United States is thinking of making the Ukrainian military happy...
In fact, the question, by the way, is very serious. This is not about the "Hawk", which is the MIM-23 HAWK, a backronym for the word "hawk" - Eng. Homing All the Way Killer - "an interceptor controlled along the entire flight path", and about its modernization "Improved HAWK" or as it is also called, "Hawk-21".
This is a more advanced and more compact modification of the already modernized complex more than once. In the process of transforming Hawk into Hawk-21, the obsolete PAR and CWAR airspace surveillance radars were replaced with the modern MPQ-64 Sentinel three-coordinate radar.
Moreover, Raytheon Technologies, in collaboration with the well-known Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace, has developed a modern mobile guidance control point, which is also used in the Norwegian NASAMS air defense system.
Work was also carried out to modernize the rocket itself. Significantly improved and strengthened the high-explosive fragmentation warhead, thanks to which the Hawk can hit targets in a circle with a larger radius than before.
The new MPQ-61 HIPIR radar provided the Hawk-21 air defense system with all-round cover for the defended object, including from low-altitude air attack weapons and continuous illumination for MIM-23K missiles.
The fact that the complex is over 60 years old is not an indicator. Here the question is more about how carefully it was modernized. Our S-300 is also quite a few years old, it has been in service since 1975, and is still relevant.
In the same way, the "Hawk" is quite relevant, judging by the way they worked on it.
And there is another very subtle nuance: over the years of production, just a huge number of the complexes themselves were produced, and the number of missiles for the Hawk went over 40 thousand pieces.
What does it say? Yes, that there is where to scrape the barns in favor of Ukraine. There are countries that, like the same Slovenia and Macedonia, losing slippers, will rush to supply their "Hawks" on the condition of receiving at a discount something more modern like the same IRIS-T. Romania, Albania, Italy, the Netherlands - there is someone to ask.
Yes, and the US Marine Corps recently abandoned the Hawks, they probably haven’t been cut yet. But the main thing is that there are a lot of missiles for the complex.
I think they will. They won't go anywhere.
Another question: how much will all this raise the combat potential of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Really serious question.
Probably, many will like my opinion that it is very weak. And here it is worth explaining why.
The fact is that the air defense system is not the Hymars, which can work solo. He arrived, entered the coordinates, fired rockets and went back. Everything is more complicated here.
The modern anti-aircraft missile system is very different from the quad machine gun of the Maxim system during the Great Patriotic War. This machine gun could be placed on the roof of a protected facility, and from there the calculation made attempts to repel attacks from the air.
A modern air defense system cannot work like that. No, to some extent the same "Buk" can, but then it's not worth talking about efficiency.
And a modern anti-aircraft missile division (in our country) and an anti-aircraft missile battery (in NATO) are a rather complex organism called a tactical fire unit, which includes:
- command post;
- multifunctional radar;
- launchers;
- means of communication and interfacing;
- TZM with a second ammunition load of missiles.
And this is the very minimum that is effectively combat-ready. And some air defense systems, like the aforementioned S-300s, generally have regimental equipment. And it additionally includes reconnaissance equipment such as NVO (low-altitude detector) or VBO (all-altitude detector).
The fact that Ukraine received single copies of the NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM air defense systems, and in the future also the Hawks, will, of course, increase the capabilities of the air defense system in the direction where these air defense systems will be located.
But I would like to emphasize very boldly that these air defense systems will have to operate in decentralized control mode, that is, almost autonomously.
At least everyone who has anything to do with the topic already understood what I mean. The fact that all Soviet systems were developed in such a way that it is simply unrealistic to include in their circuits automated control systems and target designation of imported air defense systems. So it will not be possible to "sew" our P-37 onto the F-16, in the same way, any Soviet-style control system (and there are no others in Ukraine) with an American or German / Norwegian air defense system will not work.
It's just that when developing Soviet air defense systems, slightly different principles were implemented than those on which Western weapons systems were implemented.
The Soviet complex of automation equipment for the command post of an air defense formation can control the actions of up to 15 air defense regiments, 5 regiments aviation Air defense and up to 12 RTR and EW battalions. Data on a variety of targets are processed and the issuance of non-search target designation to fire weapons is provided.
How to fit American and German air defense systems into the existing and even operating in Ukraine Soviet-style air defense system, I would not like to answer this question, because I have no idea about the architecture of these systems. But here it is clear that this is generally unlikely.
So it turns out that imported air defense systems, which have even higher characteristics than those in service with the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, cannot be inscribed in the existing air defense target designation system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and therefore are doomed to the role of local air defense systems.
Let me draw an analogy: NASAMS, an excellent air defense system, will play the role of Strela-10 on the battlefield and nothing more.
I have already said that the minimum tactical fire unit, in our case, the battery of the same second iteration NASAMS, consists of 12 launchers of 6 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles each, EIGHT (!!!) AN / MPQ-64F1 radars Improved Sentinel, one FDC control center, one electron-optical camera vehicle (MSP500), and one tactical control vehicle.
This is what will work, controlling a sector of space and destroying all air targets in it at achievable heights.
What can one installation do? Nothing. Yes, it can be used as a teaching aid and develop trained personnel. In theory.
And it will not be possible to practically realize the potential of Norwegian and German air defense systems, since they simply need appropriate automated control systems. At least the battery level.
And then more. Next, you need to update the radar, without them, too, nowhere. Accordingly, they must also be of NATO standards.
Yes, Ukraine has its own production of radars, and the Ukrainians created quite decent radars on the basis of the Soviet backlog, but ... who will need them now?
The fact is that Ukraine does not have its own production of missiles for air defense systems. The Soviet stockpile has been practically shot to pieces; today, missiles removed from storage are used, which pose no less danger to those who launch them. But there is nowhere to go.
Well, NATO has missiles. But they need radars, but this is also a problem. It is doubtful that Ukrainians will be able to master the production of radars for air defense systems of NATO countries, this is already a business and nothing personal. Norwegians, Germans, Americans - they will all be happy to help. For money. And sell your missiles along with everything else.
The factories of the military industry that produced Ukrainian radars can be honored with a moment of silence. You can not even spend Russian missiles on them, the factories will die because Ukraine does not have its own anti-aircraft missiles.
But Ukraine simply has no other choice. Either no air defense systems, or Western ones. The stock of Soviet missiles is rapidly running out, the systems are also being destroyed by the Russian side, so with all the will, there is only one way out: to buy in the West.
It is clear that in Ukrainian transcription it will look like “give us free of charge”, but free of charge cannot last forever.
So in any case, deliveries of individual complexes of NATO countries will not make the weather in the Ukrainian sky. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to switch to NATO standards, there is no getting away from this, except perhaps simply to capitulate, admitting defeat.
However, the price of the issue is simply huge. Even the ancient "Hawk" (modernized) for 18 missiles costs about 200 million dollars. And he won't be alone. And the air defense system will need not only operators, but also engineers and technicians for repair and maintenance.
The issue price is expressed in billions of dollars. For other countries, such rearmament sometimes took decades, but in the current conditions of the war in Ukraine, everything can happen even faster.
Although the feeling is ambiguous. Faster does not necessarily mean that Ukraine, with the help of the West, will rearm itself on NATO systems, no. This is costly, and so much so that partners may not agree to it. Refused with tanks and aircraft, this may well happen with air defense systems. It's also not cheap.
So the transition of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to NATO standards is a very slippery issue.
However, everything will become clear pretty soon. When the last Soviet missiles from old stocks run out.
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