Global dollar - global reserves, global debt and global collapse

Global dollar - global reserves, global debt and global collapse

Your debts are my wealth

Since the idea of ​​weakening the dollar for the sake of reducing the debt burden was first seriously voiced in the United States, not much time has passed - just over five years. It is interesting that in the press, not only business, but also in the ranks of the scientific economic community, such a measure has long been recognized, if not mandatory, then really possible.

However, the official authorities, no matter from which party, did not dare to declare such a thing, because to undermine the credibility of the dollar would mean losing the trust of the voters. Republicans and Democrats put off until later, when a competitor would rule, not even the decision itself, but the very discussion about it somewhere at the top.

But too much has happened since then, and above all the pandemic and the tough confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, and with China over Taiwan. And this was preceded by a real economic war, and unleashed not by Biden, but by Trump on obviously unequal conditions.

WTO, GATT, full control over the global financial system - what else is needed to win? In this war, Russia, it must be admitted, did not win, but so far it has only survived. How things are with China is not easy to say, although the pace of economic growth there has fallen, and strongly. And isn't this the most global of the tasks that Washington is now solving?

Now it is not worth talking about real competition with the leading economies at all, and this, alas, for a long time. In addition, it is necessary to skip forward and the former laggards. The special operation, which in essence is the same small one, but not yet victorious, does not help, although the incomes of a separately selected group of people grow by leaps and bounds on it.

However, who is better or at least easier from this in the current conditions? The question is by no means idle. However, this is not about us at all, and there is very little about our ruble. And even about the 300 billion that were stolen from us, and now they want to legalize this operation in general - in fact, not a word.

Towards the ruble, yuan and rupee

The majority of unbiased economists had no doubts for a long time that the role of the dollar in the international market was simply bound to decline over time. The hegemony of "green", and now - "colorful" or electronic is worse than a monopoly, especially given that too many currencies play no more role than dollar surrogates.

However, the absurdity of the situation when the Europeans were forced to buy European products for dollars, just like the Chinese - Chinese, was noted five years ago by Jean-Claude Juncker, who is now forgotten. Then, we recall, neither more nor less - the head of the European Commission.

The punishment of the euro for excessive independence has already taken place. But the share of the dollar in other people's reserves is still better to reduce. The excess dollar overhang only interferes with the effective movement of capital. If only because no one will ever offer anything really worthwhile, except for American securities denominated in the same dollars.

For this, we have always criticized our Central Bank, but we understood that for all its independence, it would not be able to prove to anyone the validity of other types of large investments. That is why we now have what we have - minus 300 billion in reserve and the continuation of a massive outflow of capital to offshore.

At the same time, the receipt of reserve status by new currencies reduces the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. Such a result was brought by mutual activity in regional trade, which grew not least due to the efforts of those who steer precisely in dollars.

Parallel to all this, there is a camouflage noise about the illegality of selling oil and gas for rubles, and price ceiling games are being played, dangerous only externally. The Fed, as a dollar issuer, is always ready to keep in mind both sanctions packages and political pressure. And everything is done by the hands of the American State Department.

Who's for a dollar, show yourself

The dollar is still the most convenient and seemingly even the cheapest in global circulation. Cheapness, of course, is deceptive, but everyone endures. However, the pace at which the ruble, yuan and the same rupee are now catching up with the dollar in global reserves refutes all old forecasts.

Previously, Bloomberg and the Financial Times gave the dollar decades to retreat, but now they only give years. But until now, everyone considered the dollar stable. The reprisal against the euro added whists to this assessment, but... Too many other factors in support of the US currency have now gone into the red.

You can start with the size of the US economy and their sober assessment. The services and finance sectors, which account for two-thirds of US GDP, are no longer overestimated. This is not the auto industry, not mechanical engineering, and even more so not high technology, although in their part California is still ahead of the rest.

But you won't be fed up with California alone, and after 2008 too many stop taking the dictates of American financiers for granted. Moreover, they also have powerful competitors, both in China and India, and in the Middle East. And the fact how easily Russia left the SWIFT system is also something, yes it means.

The undeniably high role of the United States in world trade, as well as the traditional transparency of financial markets and a coherent monetary policy, clearly speaks for the dollar. With all its nuances and protectionism. Monetary policy is now the most difficult, America did not know such high rates even in the crisis year of 2008.

And all in order to suppress inflation, which earlier, through the same dollars, the Fed and the State Department gave to anyone, but not to the American consumer. You can’t offend him - he is the holder of the lion’s share of the American public debt. A US citizen always knew that his country would pay him off without any problems, if something happened. Always and anywhere in the world.

What is definitely against the dollar is the eternal US deficit in foreign trade, but for decades no one tried to hide it. And even taking it into account, the same simple American firmly believed that this was not a threat at all. Now such knowledge and such belief are called into question, and this is just more important than any counteroffensives of the ruble, yuan, rupee and even the euro against the pound.
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  1. +3
    October 31 2022
    Maybe soon the long-term efforts of the domestic economist Khazin to popularize the topic "The imminent collapse of the US dollar" will come true and we will see this collapse in our lifetime, but while the dollar is still strong and our authorities need to think about how the domestic ruble does not suffer this fate hi
    1. +4
      October 31 2022
      Not very fast, he wrote his book back in 2003.
      1. +6
        October 31 2022
        "Soon your dollar kirdyk" (c) I remember already from the 80s of the 20th century. I have been waiting for 40 years for the smelly green paper to end.
  2. +12
    October 31 2022
    But you won't be full of California alone
    But nevertheless, they have it. And with Rusnano, the money has swelled, neither technology, nor production .. Oh, yes, patents that the whole world is buying up ..
  3. +8
    October 31 2022
    Everything seems to be so, but after reading the article I did not understand what exactly the author said was new or old in detail. Some kind of empty text turned out, what is, what is not.
  4. +1
    October 31 2022
    As long as our star with the kids does not siezhit all of Russia, the dollar will rule in Russia.
    And all our significant goods are sold only for rubles, oil, gas, wood, etc. Otherwise, we will puff under the west ...
  5. -1
    October 31 2022
    Everything eventually comes to an end, because circumstances change. And in our era, the processes have accelerated many times over.

    All over Europe, even in England, coins of Ancient Rome are found ... That was the currency, so the currency, minted in silver and gold! And then it was considered the most reliable, "eternal". It took several centuries for Roman coins to become mere collectors' toys.

    And with the dollar and the US now everything will be much faster. The financial exchange of huge amounts takes place in a fraction of a second, and the dollar itself is now electronic. Well, other currencies are running out!
    That is, the fall of Roman money was due to historical events, when the power of the Empire collapsed, which could no longer give reliable guarantees for the exchange of goods. We see something similar now...
  6. +4
    October 31 2022
    Interestingly, the girls are dancing ... since childhood, I have been waiting for the death of the dollar along with the United States ... reluctance to die without waiting!
  7. +2
    October 31 2022
    I never had someone else's currency in my stash. Maybe I'm wrong, but that currency looks attractive, which is bought all over the world. That banknote that can be exchanged even for a hundred years.
  8. +5
    October 31 2022
    Rumors about the imminent demise of the dollar are a little exaggerated, but this is my humble opinion, the Americans are now pulling all energy-intensive production from Europe, drowning them as a competitor, and based on this, the trade balance will even out, plus their companies are being forced to return production to the USA, in general, industrialization America has been started, the Trump business is alive and well. Something like that wassat am
    1. 0
      November 2, 2022
      In fact, the US is beginning to plunder its European allies. Gnawed like a sugar bone. So as long as there is someone to eat, the dollar will not die.
  9. +8
    October 31 2022
    “For this, we have always criticized our Central Bank, but we understood that for all its independence, it will not be able to prove to anyone the validity of other types of large investments. That is why we now have what we have - minus 300 billion in reserve offshore."

    Authors, and to whom the Central Bank "will not be able to prove the validity of other types of large investments"? Does he have an obligation to do so? or what are we talking about? Or is the argument about the ongoing collapse of the dollar poorly substantiated by the fact that until now, it has stored our reserves, among other things, and most countries of the world still have them?
    1. +2
      November 1, 2022
      Quote: Level 2 Advisor
      and to whom the Central Bank "will not be able to prove the validity of other types of large investments"? Does he have an obligation to do so? or what are we talking about?

      The point is that Russia is a US colony. Then everything becomes clear - sell gold for glass beads, and give them to the buyer for storage laughing How to call people who withdraw money from the economy of their country, for the benefit of the economy of another? And having answered this question, questions about the strangeness of the NWO, the steps of "good will", about the desire for negotiations, disappear by themselves. Loud statements are many, but there are few deeds. hi
    2. -1
      November 1, 2022
      Much has changed since the 90s, for example, the President of the Russian Federation can remove at least the entire leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and then he will appoint after coordinating the candidates in the Duma. The gold reserves of the Russian Federation amounted to about 600-t billion in terms of US dollars. All gold from gold reserves was and is stored in Russia. Foreign exchange reserves were in US dollars, euros, yen, yuan, Swiss francs... That is why it is believed that about 300 billion dollars and euros have been frozen.
      1. +1
        November 1, 2022
        Quote: SavranP
        the president of the Russian Federation can remove at least the entire leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, then he will appoint coordinating candidates in the Duma.

        also remove with the consent of the Duma ..
        The Central Bank is not subordinate, but accountable to the Duma, but not to the President ..
        The Council of the Central Bank - more than half with the formation of England-USA ..
        Have you read the old law on the Central Bank of the RSFSR - in force in the 90s, for this statement?
        Quote: SavranP
        Much has changed since the 90s, for example, the President of the Russian Federation can remove at least the entire leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and then he will appoint after coordinating the candidates in the Duma.

        So, the procedure for appointment by the President and much more, sounds identical to the law of the 90th year on the Central Bank ..
  10. +1
    October 31 2022
    The basis of the dollar is the US economy, the most powerful in the world, which provides purchasing power and, like a magnet, attracts the capital of the whole world. This allows the dollar to be used with impunity as the main weapon of colonization of the rest of the world, and the economic expediency of transferring industry to underdeveloped state formations completes their colonization. As productive forces are transferred abroad, financial, managerial, scientific, commercial, legal and other functions of the service sector are concentrated in the metropolis.
    The EU economy has always been and will be oriented towards the USA, and the Euro-USA transnational monopoly associations strengthen and make this connection inseparable, which does not cancel the intra-class struggle and competition of monopoly associations.
    The growth of the economy and purchasing power of the PRC makes it a competitor, and a different social system and management system predetermine the struggle for markets, raw materials and spheres of influence, which inevitably leads to an aggravation of political and economic relations and an intensification of military confrontation.
    Such a prospect required the repatriation of the US productive forces scattered around the world, which D. Tram began to do, and D. Biden continues to do it successfully even at the expense of affiliated allies in Europe, some of which are trying to balk and defend their interests, incl. and at the expense of the Russian Federation. That is why the EU is pursuing the most aggressive sanctions policy against the Russian Federation.
    Global trends are always accompanied by side effects, many of which take place today in the form of inflationary, political, military and other phenomena.
  11. -1
    October 31 2022
    That's when there is a shortage in the US in the production of new goods, then there will be a shortage in trade and demand for $.
    Availability of individual conversations.
    Here the moment is the ruble, yuan, ruppee.
    These currencies at one time received a "discharge" from the dollar. The question is, will this time never happen again?
  12. +8
    October 31 2022
    I wonder what kind of mugs this information is for? One of the points of modern American economic theory (they do not work there, they are not in vain to all the colonies and semi-colonies of the Washington Consensus) is that the "money illusion" is strong in the behavior of people (even presidents).
    It consists in the fact that we are sincerely accustomed, or rather, we have been taught, to consider money as wealth. In fact, money is a simple product of states to receive everything necessary, and sometimes superfluous, at the expense of society.
    The scheme is simple to the primitive. The US Congress approves a deficit budget. Debt obligations of the State Treasury are issued (once a week!). Some of them are bought by fools with the dollars they received for real material values! What is not bought in exchange for goods is accepted by the Fed, which issues those pieces of paper that are called money in cash and non-cash form. And then no one cares what you will do with these dollars.
    In short, the American dollar is simply the accumulated deficit of the US state budget and its transformation into real material values ​​is of interest to US residents only when they, the state, companies and US citizens need something.
    Therefore, it is ridiculous to talk about the collapse of the dollar until the residents of other countries refuse to accept it in exchange for their products.
    1. +3
      November 1, 2022
      70% of the US public debt belongs to private American companies, the state fulfills all obligations to its companies from and to. No one except repulsed leftists makes any claims. The main foreign holders of public debt are the countries with the largest trade turnover with the United States. The same China, in which 25% of exports are exports to the United States, why would China bring down something there in order to lose a quarter of all exports? China has been fighting back for decades against enterprising assholes, with their proposals to make the yuan a reserve currency, and artificially lowers the yuan for the sake of developing its economy in order to be able to buy dollars at a favorable rate. China is satisfied with the current situation. The only countries that are dissatisfied with the situation are those that have fallen under severe sanctions (which do not work), that do not have the opportunity to use the global financial system normally. And such countries can be counted on the fingers of one hand. So welcome to the club.
      1. +1
        November 1, 2022
        You are talking about the official US government debt, which is more than 30 trillion dollars. China, by the way, at the last, 20th, Party Congress decided to move to the development of the domestic market and get rid of Chimeriki. As there will be further, time will tell. But the US national debt is not the main problem, much worse is the saturation of the world economy with an amount of dollars that cannot even be counted. According to rough estimates by American economists, this figure is more than 300 trillion dollars. The result of uncontrolled manipulation by the Fed after the abolition of the gold content of the dollar. It turns out that all this mass of bucks is not secured by anything and the collapse of the financial pyramid is inevitable.
  13. +3
    October 31 2022
    "Global dollar - global reserves, global debt and global collapse"
    Topic with steady demand. Like toilet paper.
    So there will be constantly feeding on this topic.
    Khazin, Leontiev, Alexei Podymov, Anatoly Ivanov, etc., their name is legion - feeding.
    I treat them with deep understanding.
    If they do not satisfy this simple demand (to write this crap), then others will write it, and they will lose some kind of income.
    No questions for them.
    Those who satisfy this demand "Free of charge, that is, for nothing!" (c) always aroused my unfading, sincere interest.
    We also have such comrades!
    Share, pliz, about the "Global collapse" without material interest. Profitless, so to speak.
    Thanks in advance.
  14. +4
    October 31 2022
    In my opinion, it's too early to bury, the US economy remains one of the most competitive. The country builds civil and military aircraft, ships, has a developed automotive industry, agriculture, semiconductor production, software industry, launches spacecraft and satellites, but it also produces the most oil and gas in the world. The fact that she transferred part of the industry to China does not mean anything, before Mexico was generally engaged in this (maquiladoras), as they came, they will leave.
  15. +3
    November 1, 2022
    If we discard high-minded arguments about global economic processes, about monetary and volatility and other empyreans, that is, we apply a long-known philosophical technique and simplify the issue to complete schematicity, then we will come to one, albeit offensive to many, simple conclusion - the US dollar today a day is the only monetary unit CONVENIENT for an ordinary "small" person as of HERE and NOW. If we ignore what will happen to the dollar after some (from the next second to the next thousand years) time, then it is the dollar that is the money (not the currency - let's not confuse the concepts) that can be converted into a solution to the urgent necessities of life - food , clothes, information, weapons... Try to buy something for a ruble (rupiah, yuan, lira, krone or yen) somewhere in Tanzania, Australia, Indonesia? Have you tried? Happened? Now try to do the same with the dollar. I am not a supporter and admirer of the dollar, but let's face it - today the dollar is perceived by SIMPLE ORDINARY people as a universal means of payment, its currency properties to everyone up to the lilac star. And as long as these green papers can be exchanged for at least something from the Arctic to the Antarctic, he will live in spite of all theoretical economists. Alas...
  16. +3
    November 1, 2022
    Dollar to be. There's nothing to be done. Here and won the duel with the euro and the support of governments, not only national. The absence of a fight against the entrepreneurial lobby, and they just have everything green, and not decorated.
  17. +1
    November 1, 2022
    The dollar will continue to serve as the main currency for international settlements and reserves. Yes, some decrease in its share is possible, but not critical.
    The world has no serious reason to abandon the dollar.
    1. Most countries have gold reserves in dollars.
    The example is simple. China holds more than a trillion US dollars in public debt. The US is their largest trading partner, paying in dollars. China is the last one who wants the USD to collapse.
    2. Settlements in national currencies are possible on a very limited scale.
    The example is also simple. Here we conditionally buy tomatoes from Turkey, and they have gas from us.
    We sell them gas for $100 a year, and they sell us tomatoes for $20.
    If we pay in dollars, then we will find where and how to spend these dollars. Any country will gladly accept them. But if the Turks give us liras instead of dollars, then what should Russia do with them, if we simply have nothing to buy from Turkey with them? An abstract example, of course. Under the gas and tomatoes is understood, in principle, any product.
    We are a country with a trade surplus. Those. we sell more resources than we buy anything else in the outside world.
    What should we do with the excess of national currencies?
    At least we put the dollar in reserves ..
    3. For individuals - citizens, the disappearance of the dollar is simply a tragedy, because the vast majority of citizens keep at least half of their savings in dollars. A tragedy for a private trader = social tension in the country. What authority needs it? Well, apart from us, there is already nothing to lose with the war, sanctions, etc...
    4. Calculations in dollars are just convenient. Everyone is used to it. Everyone knows him, all the schemes and mechanisms have been worked out. Natural inertia of thinking and resistance to the new.
    5. The vast majority of existing multi-year contracts are in dollars. Their revision is simply not profitable and extremely inconvenient.
    6. The US has never in its history defaulted on an obligation. It is the most reliable payer for its debts.
    Etc. etc.
    You can throw a couple of dozen such points in flight.
  18. -2
    November 2, 2022
    Quote: Dmitry Rigov
    In my opinion, it's too early to bury, the US economy remains one of the most competitive. The country builds civil and military aircraft, ships, has a developed automotive industry, agriculture, semiconductor production, software industry, launches spacecraft and satellites, but it also produces the most oil and gas in the world.

    1. Then why does the US have a negative balance in foreign trade? They buy a lot more than they sell.
    2. Why so many debts?
    3. Why do people consume more than they produce?
    4. Why are there not enough of their own oil and gas, and why does the US buy oil even from Russia?
    5. The US own economy provides only a third of the dollar supply. The remaining dollars provide foreign economies ... what will happen if foreigners refuse such a practice?
    6. Why is political pressure and military force playing an increasingly important role in US economic relations with the rest of the world? If you are a competitive subject in the economy, then there is no need to threaten partners and clients with a knife and a gun.
    1. 0
      November 3, 2022
      In the United States, there is literally a cult of consumption, for example, they have almost 300 thousand cars, a little less than in China, the average American consumes many times more resources than the average inhabitant of the world. As long as they can service their debt, there can be no question for them. Foreigners are also not fools to refuse the United States, since their business is willingly credited from the United States. They buy only heavy oil, which they have a shortage of, and sell light oil. Gas is bought in the cold, when it is cheaper to buy someone else's. And they apply pressure only where they have a reason, for example, the intellectual property of the United States is used.
      In general, I might have believed that Americans live unreasonably well if we had our own auto industry and we would build at least a couple of hundred MS-21s a year like a Boeing. And so if we have the most perfect car, this is the Lada Vesta, which will be launched only next year, what can we even talk about? The plant for the production of automatic transmissions cannot be overpowered for several decades.

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