Military Review

US attempts to get its allies to ban the export of microchips to China could lead to a military clash between China and Taiwan

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US attempts to get its allies to ban the export of microchips to China could lead to a military clash between China and Taiwan

In early October, the US Department of Commerce decided that the threat of building or acquiring high-performance microchips for military purposes in China was too urgent. In this regard, it was decided to introduce export controls. In fact, we are talking about a ban on the export of microchips to China. Now the aforementioned American department is focused on forcing its allies to introduce similar measures.


On October 7, the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Commerce issued two new export control regulations prohibiting the export to China of high-tech chips, tools, and components used to make chips 14 nanometers or smaller. The restrictions also prevent US citizens from supporting the development or production of chips at certain Chinese facilities without obtaining a license.

In addition, the new rules affect the "list of organizations" - companies, individuals or research organizations, compliance with the requirements of which the United States cannot verify.

Allowing a foreign adversary to use American or allied technology... just disgusts me. As with other sanctions, if the target country has other ways to survive, they are less effective - hence the need to urgently force other countries to join forces against China.

Alan Esteves, Undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, said during a panel discussion at the Center for a New American Security on Oct. 27.

Alan Esteves added that industry representatives also want the measures to be multilateral, to be clear and consistent. While the current focus is on semiconductors and tools to make them, the rules could be extended to other technologies as China continues to develop and build its capacity to replace banned materials, he said.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that among other, so to speak, American-obedient territories is Taiwan. This Chinese island is one of the world leaders in the production of microprocessors and other semiconductor products. Washington, on which the leadership of this island counts, including in terms of breaking away from China, can force Taiwan to stop selling electronic components to China. Thus, a situation will arise that a part of the state that has high-tech microprocessor production will refuse to supply products to its own state (and de jure the US itself does not recognize the independence of Taiwan).

This is unlikely to silently "swallow" Beijing. This very likely situation could provoke a violent clash between mainland China and its "rebellious" region - Taiwan.
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  1. certero
    certero 28 October 2022 19: 12
    -6
    There will be no war for Taiwan yet. The Chinese look at our special operation and understand that it will be even more difficult with Taiwan
    1. Bingo
      Bingo 28 October 2022 19: 13
      +3
      There is no need for war. The blockade of the island - and all. China can do this without straining. And 66% of chip production will disappear, and with them the entire industry of the USA and Europe
      1. DymOk_v_dYmke
        DymOk_v_dYmke 28 October 2022 19: 24
        0
        Quote from Bingo
        There is no need for war. The blockade of the island - and all. China can do this without straining. And 66% of chip production will disappear, and with them the entire industry of the USA and Europe

        That's what it is.
        Yes, even glaze China Taiwan, the stripes will suffer in the first place.

        As for military potentials, the notorious nanometers of chips play no role at all.
        1. Shurik70
          Shurik70 28 October 2022 19: 43
          +3
          Quote from Bingo
          There is no need for war. The blockade of the island - and all.

          China has experience of joining Hong Kong.
          Simply bought the local government. And they promised the rich that their bank accounts and their company shares would not be touched. And all with joyful songs poured into China. Since China kept its word, Taiwan will also believe it.
          The only obstacle is that the current government of Taiwan is bought by the Americans. This is the direction in which China is now certainly working.
          1. Nickelium
            Nickelium 29 October 2022 01: 47
            -1
            The devil is in the details. Hong Kong managed to be squeezed out because it belonged to the Kingdom, which by that time had become so decrepit that he could not oppose anything more serious than Argentina. Taiwan under the roof of the United States. So this one won't work here. And no one bought Hong Kong. He was simply put before the fact. And their songs are so joyful that they have border controls designed to protect Hong Kong from mainland rogues. There is a suspicion that if Shanghai, Guangdong and Sichuan are granted independence, then they will gladly run away from the Big Brother of China.
            1. Shurik70
              Shurik70 29 October 2022 09: 56
              +1
              Quote: Nickelium
              if Shanghai, Guangdong and Sichuan are granted independence, they will gladly run away from Big Brother China

              In almost any village (not to mention cities and regions) of any country there are people who are convinced that if they separate from the rest of the country, then they (not the village in general, but precisely them) will be better off.
              So in any city, if there is an opportunity to secede, there will be those who will support the seceding with songs.
              Only the Chinese Dragon is not one of those who will allow the "democrats" to tear him to pieces. Heads will be bitten off like that. Which has already been done more than once.
              As for "Taiwan is different" - I have already said that the current government of the island is bought by the United States. So China should just wait for its "democratic" change. What can be accelerated by quite standard democratic methods - black PR, bribery of the election commission, blackmail, falsification of crimes and the truth about real crimes and the physical liquidation of especially stubborn ones (with blaming the right people). All this is quite acceptable to the enemies and even causes their respect - after all, capitalism.
              1. Nickelium
                Nickelium 29 October 2022 14: 36
                0
                Yeah. Blessed are those who believe. A monkey can wait as long as it wants, but it will only wait for its death.
            2. mmaxx
              mmaxx 29 October 2022 18: 58
              0
              In Hong Kong, the term of the treaty under which it was occupied by the British was ending. China has been waiting and waiting for a long time.
              There is no such situation with Taiwan. This is the Chinese Crimea of ​​1920. If you want to decide - decide. If you can't, sit up straight.
              Here they sit.
        2. Duncan
          Duncan 28 October 2022 21: 10
          0
          It is precisely because of the "nanometers", or rather, without advanced technical processes that we do not have our own modern
          drones
          guided bombs
          satellite constellation (intelligence and communications)
          glonass accuracy at the level of military gps
          AWACS aircraft
          Air defense like the Iron Dome, where active heads are in cheap missiles
          MANPADS laser blinding systems on each aircraft

          Talk about unnecessary nanometers from the same source as "we will buy everything."
          1. Nickelium
            Nickelium 29 October 2022 01: 50
            +3
            Well, yes. And hypersound = yes. And it doesn't exist in the US.
            ZHPS is more publicized than Glonass, and which of them is more accurate is unknown.
            The Iron Dome is a publicized Hollywood thing in a narrow area. If this canoe is stretched along the Russian-Ukrainian border, then drones, missiles, and shells will pierce through it.
            1. filibuster
              filibuster 29 October 2022 17: 06
              +1
              The Americans played hypersonic ten years ago, then they considered the weapon expensive and stopped work after the tests. Now they are in a hurry again, they broke through the financing and most likely they will bring it to the series. But all this does not exactly make hypersound a cheap weapon, it did not affect the capture of Avdiivka in any way. But the presence of satellite reconnaissance, AWACS aircraft that would continuously circle for 200 km, would reveal the positions of artillery, MLRS, OTR, air defense would greatly help, as well as the presence of hundreds of attack drones, electronic warfare aircraft, high-precision satellite-guided missiles, etc., it would help to suppress air defense and continue to operate aviation, if not in free hunting mode, then close to it.
              1. Nickelium
                Nickelium 29 October 2022 18: 31
                +1
                Well, the presence of the Hump and Borka-akash and the presence of all of the above are mutually exclusive. Only the total pressure of the West made us reconsider our view of drones and so on. Or have you already forgotten the liberal: "What we don't have, we'll buy!" These things don't happen overnight.
                1. filibuster
                  filibuster 29 October 2022 21: 46
                  +2
                  When were they Gorbi and Borka the drunk?
                  Putin has been in power for more than 20 years, and you all remember Gorbachev, as if in his time the USSR directly filled up the whole world with its microelectronics. Problems in microelectronics, communications, thermal imagers, satellite reconnaissance were also in the USSR.
                  1. Nickelium
                    Nickelium 29 October 2022 22: 01
                    -1
                    Yes, not so long ago, but in terms of time frame - negligible.
                    And Putin - Aladdin or something at once to straighten the jambs of the previous rulers? Have you studied the history of Russia? So they gave away with royal gestures of goodwill easily. But they took it back with a lot of blood. And by the way, did Putin also give away the waters of the Barents Sea? And by the way, Medved gave these territories as a gesture of goodwill for the development of cooperation with Norway in the Arctic region. How is Norway normally developing cooperation with us? But Putin is certainly to blame. Blame Putin and get a plus. Tsipso and the local liberda will not let you lie.
                    1. filibuster
                      filibuster 29 October 2022 22: 22
                      0
                      I understand everything, but I repeat that we don’t have really working AWACS, these are questions for the current leadership, well, how can Gorby and Yeltsin not hide behind.
                      1. Nickelium
                        Nickelium 30 October 2022 00: 01
                        0
                        That is, there is nothing to do with Hump and Yelets, who destroyed the Russian military commissar? Not tired of these rats to justify? They won't even rest in hell.
      2. Duncan
        Duncan 28 October 2022 19: 33
        +3
        China itself produces most of the electronics from Taiwanese chips, while its own take up a small percentage.
        The West only dreams of killing competitors in Taiwan and South Korea, first dragging production from there. This has already happened in Japan.
        1. Bingo
          Bingo 28 October 2022 19: 47
          -1
          China is localizing production. The current economic war began with the production, and most importantly, with the installation on flagship phone models, primarily Huawei, of processors that, in terms of performance, make Samsung and other American ones like a tortoise god. With sanctions - China does not care that Taiwan does not supply them - it does not supply anyway.
        2. Arkady007
          Arkady007 28 October 2022 20: 19
          +2
          I just wanted to ask, where did the Japanese miracle of the 70s go?
          China has swallowed everything in the area. Now everyone owes China, not him. It has not reached the US yet, but it will come very soon.
          Without the US, China will definitely survive, and what the US will do without cheap labor is a very big question.
          1. Nickelium
            Nickelium 29 October 2022 01: 53
            -3
            Won't survive. Markets will immediately shut down. And for China, this is death.
            There is cheap labor in India, Bangladesh, Malaysia and other Papuans. Yes, and the whole mainland at hand - South America. And it will be necessary - the blacks will be harnessed again. So with cheap labor there is no shortage. Everyone wants to eat.
          2. mmaxx
            mmaxx 29 October 2022 18: 59
            +1
            The Japanese miracle ended simultaneously with the Soviet one. The Americans slammed him. There was and no.
        3. VPK-65
          VPK-65 28 October 2022 21: 04
          +1
          The West only dreams of killing competitors in Taiwan and South Korea, first dragging production from there.

          They are stepping on their own rake, they already had production. As soon as production is deployed, you will need again:
          1. Markets (even China with its 1,5 billion population is NOT self-sufficient).
          2. Trade expansion (the more sales in the world, the better - they themselves will have to lift sanctions from those countries on which they imposed them).
          3. Required cheap labor in order to minimize the cost of goods. And the same China sales markets won't give up without a fight.
          PS Of course, all this will not happen quickly, but ... history repeats itself, it's time for the states to be like a rake.
        4. filibuster
          filibuster 29 October 2022 17: 21
          0
          The West only dreams of killing competitors in Taiwan and South Korea, first dragging production from there.


          In this case, who is the West? In microelectronics (chip production) there has long been a colossal division of labor, from a bird's eye view it looks like this: some develop software, others develop equipment for the production of microcircuits, such as ASML, Nikon, Canon, and others design the microprocessors / chips themselves (there are generally tens if not hundreds of companies of the most famous AMD, NVidia, Qualcomm, Apple), the fourth ones organize factories (contract manufacturers) where the largest Taiwanese TSMC produces chips to order, followed by Samsung, UMS, GlobalFoundries. There are also separate companies that are developing individual architectures, cores, IP blocks, such as ARM, MIPS Technologies.

          This has already happened in Japan.


          And what happened to her, they hold second place (albeit by a wide margin) in the lithographic equipment market.
    2. maxim1987
      maxim1987 28 October 2022 19: 16
      0
      they just saw that from the very beginning it was necessary not to crush the boobs and play negotiations, but to act massively and harshly
    3. Felix
      Felix 28 October 2022 19: 18
      +4
      More difficult than? Taiwan is an island, borders are easier to close. In fact, they won't even need to fight - the blockade of all cargo traffic, except for humanitarian aid, can solve the problem of Taiwan in a couple of months. If only because half of America's needs for chips are covered by Taiwan, which means that America will face a dilemma - either a direct military clash with a nuclear power, or the drain of the island.
      1. Nickelium
        Nickelium 28 October 2022 19: 25
        -1
        The blockade of the island will turn into a blockade of China. Sanctions will open it like a tin can. Here it is necessary either to go to storm regardless of the losses, or not to start at all.
        1. Felix
          Felix 28 October 2022 19: 28
          +8
          The blockade of the island will turn into a blockade of China

          To block the economy, capable of feeding one and a half billion citizens??? Are you serious now?
          1. Rustic
            Rustic 29 October 2022 16: 52
            +1
            To block the economy, capable of feeding one and a half billion citizens??? Are you serious now?
            Feed one and a half, and clothe all 4. Such a player simply cannot be crossed out. There will be such an economic crisis that many will be left without pants.
      2. filibuster
        filibuster 29 October 2022 17: 24
        -1
        We saw how China blocked Pelosi's plane.
    4. Duncan
      Duncan 28 October 2022 19: 29
      +3
      China does not need conflicts at all. It grew well economically on globalization. And he had every chance to outgrow the States economically and technologically.
    5. Fizik13
      Fizik13 28 October 2022 23: 49
      -1
      Quote: certero
      There will be no war for Taiwan yet.

      The key word here is BYE.
  2. Thrifty
    Thrifty 28 October 2022 19: 13
    +5
    China will invest another couple of tens of billions of dollars in the development of new processors, and in a few years it will be completely self-sufficient in microelectronics. So, because of the microcircuits, there will definitely not be a war!
    1. smart fellow
      smart fellow 28 October 2022 19: 52
      +4
      China will invest another couple of tens of billions of dollars

      Since 2020, China has begun to implement an extremely large-scale campaign to develop its own microelectronics industry. The goal of the program is to achieve independence from US technologies in 2025 and expand the domestic production of electronic components that the country needs. During this period, the government of the country allocated $ 1,4 trillion for the needs of the electronic components manufacturing industry.
  3. faterdom
    faterdom 28 October 2022 19: 17
    +3
    Taiwan can be blockaded, which China demonstrated after the cap. But will the States want to break through this blockade by force?
    And here is a very big question, and that's unlikely. Pounding show-offs is not fighting with China in the current lineups, having on hand a still premature Ukraine and a staggering Europe.
    1. Nickelium
      Nickelium 28 October 2022 19: 26
      +1
      What did he show? What is he - a paper tiger? China is very afraid of sanctions, and if you show fear, then they will beat you where it hurts.
      1. Nickelium
        Nickelium 28 October 2022 19: 31
        0
        Very much. This economy will collapse instantly if a hail of sanctions is imposed on it. This Russia is so amazing. And all these Chinese and Europeans are terribly afraid of sanctions.
  4. MBRSS
    MBRSS 28 October 2022 19: 17
    +3
    When the Americans build a megafactory for the production of high-tech mikruhs (the money has already been allocated), they themselves will bomb Taiwan.
    1. Bingo
      Bingo 28 October 2022 19: 29
      +2
      They have already built the Vogtl nuclear power plant. Twice. And the money was allocated somewhere else in 2010. And the state is sitting at the end of 2022 without electricity - these are not Hollywood cartoons about green energy
    2. fif21
      fif21 28 October 2022 19: 30
      +6
      Quote: MBRBS
      When the Americans build a megafactory for the production of high-tech mikruhs (the money has already been allocated), they themselves will bomb Taiwan.

      The US has plans to withdraw equipment for the production of chips from Taiwan to the US. It's a question of time . The Russian Federation and China have only one way out, the transition from gray schemes of purchases to the establishment of their own production. hi
      1. Felix
        Felix 28 October 2022 19: 53
        +3
        It's not a matter of time. The capitalist economy does not care about this kind of expediency, the bourgeoisie cares about profit at minimal cost - which means that as long as it is cheaper to produce chips in third world countries with cheap labor and environmentally liberal legislation, production will be there. This also applies to us - as long as it is cheaper to build gray schemes, we will not see any production in Russia.
        1. fif21
          fif21 28 October 2022 21: 38
          0
          Quote: Felix
          It's not a matter of time. The capitalist economy does not care about this kind of expediency, the bourgeoisie cares about profit at minimal cost

          Theoretically yes. But practice - the United States has withdrawn dangerous and harmful production to third countries, mothballed oil production. While the whole world was their colony. But times are changing. Rising unemployment in the United States, the policy of China, the Russian Federation, the Saudis ..... and the United States are forced to increase oil production, invite EU companies to transfer their production to the United States. And they are also concerned about the possibility of obtaining their technologies by competing countries.
          Quote: Felix
          This also applies to us - as long as it is cheaper to build gray schemes, we will not see any production in Russia.

          Well, if Russia wants to continue to be a raw material appendage of the whole world, then yes. But such a country cannot set itself the ambitious goals it sets. hi
          1. DymOk_v_dYmke
            DymOk_v_dYmke 29 October 2022 05: 15
            0
            Quote: fif21
            Well, if Russia wants to continue to be a raw material appendage of the whole world, then yes. But such a country cannot set itself the ambitious goals it sets.

            Apparently he wants to.
            When not words for words sound, but a goal is set, then not only money is rushed to drink, but deadlines are signed, performers and there is a tough demand. hi
          2. Felix
            Felix 29 October 2022 10: 20
            0
            But times are changing.

            They change, yes. But please remember that the US political system is built on periods between elections, and they often have them. Every 2 years. And not a single structure, being in power, will ever agree to a decrease in the standard of living of citizens, because this will mean a decrease in ratings, losing elections and losing power. Among other things, the authorities have a tool that allows them to project the US economic problems onto their satellites through the Fed and uncontrolled dollar emissions - as an example, in the period 2019 - 2020 - 9,2 trillion, 2021 - 2,5 trillion. That is, for 3 years $12 trillion printed and injected into the global financial system. And the world swallowed it. And this creates the illusion that without any problems, simply by increasing the debt, you can hold out until the next election and try to blame the possible collapse of the economy on your opponents.
            Now about production.
            I do not know how the political elite can force the producers to return to their land, while losing a decent amount of profit. Among other things, building a plant is one thing, but training personnel is another. Will they drag hard workers from Malaysia and Taiwan? Well, how many will be taken out, but I don’t think that more than half. Where to get the rest?
            And there is also a problem with the supply of all kinds of rare earth materials (I'm talking about the electronic industry now), which, for example, are quite numerous in China in the form of already developed deposits, but in the states?
            But what about expensive energy?
            And what to do with crazy ecologists?
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 28 October 2022 19: 35
    +3
    From just competition to just war ... very close, in general.
  6. Emergency
    Emergency 28 October 2022 19: 56
    +1
    Only because of this, should I start a CBO on Tan Wan? Cheaper and faster for China to establish their production at home. They are, they can.
  7. febe'omni
    febe'omni 28 October 2022 21: 47
    +2
    WW2 started with sanctions too. any one recalls the rubber boycott for japan? I cant but help and think, is this just the plan. Pieces are failing in place more than just coincidence would make them. The comparison with past events make it seem like this is just a method to escalate. Like the many other escalations occurring right now.
  8. speed4fun
    speed4fun 28 October 2022 22: 12
    +2
    I wonder why the European and American liberals have taken all the production to China? Chips, textiles and all manufactured goods. They destroyed thousands and thousands of jobs in Europe. These idiots are ruling us in Europe. They did it just to make more money and now they say the Chinese are bad. The Chinese will not start a war because their business is selling products to the USA and Europe
  9. Corrosion inhibitor
    Corrosion inhibitor 28 October 2022 23: 49
    +1
    China should also be "banned" from buying chips in Taiwan. In jest, of course.
    But maybe, at least then they will take off the handbrake and move on from preparations to concrete actions ...
    And there, you look, and life will improve. And there will be chips, too, even if you take out buckets, even take them out on a cart - all the same, the supply will not be exhausted.
  10. opuonmed
    opuonmed 29 October 2022 01: 03
    +2
    and in Russia, in the Russian Federation, someone always turns up their e2k architecture and doesn’t give money for Elbrus for their architecture and not for someone else’s !! although everything has been created, there are already elbrus 8sv 16sv even in the development of 32sv! and the money is not issued already 3 times! give the core to others! in general, harm everyone is doing so that the Russian Federation does not have a personal architecture and that they develop and this is sovereignty!
    1. vadimtt
      vadimtt 29 October 2022 10: 01
      +1
      The problem is that the VLIW architecture did not take off even on servers (moreover, VLIW can hardly be called Russian, Elbrus is a Russian microarchitecture), and it’s nonsense to shove such specifics into desktop processors. VLIW still poorly holds the DSP niche, but it's losing out there too. It is probably better to concentrate on RISC V, which is more promising in all respects (and even for number grinders).

      PS: Ask where the main inspirers of Elbrus are working now and what they think about Elbrus and VLIW in particular laughing
      1. opuonmed
        opuonmed 29 October 2022 10: 54
        0
        well, yes, why should we develop the best ready-made and alien and with holes, and then we wonder where the USA and other info about the military and others what they do))) I exaggerate