The analytical program "However," with Mikhail Leontyev 25 October 2012
On Sunday, Ukraine will elect a parliament. At first glance, to understand the Ukrainian scenario is extremely difficult. Lots of lots. They are all completely different. The result is a little predictable. In fact, everything is, in a sense, much simpler.
According to various polls of Ukrainian sociological services, which, it should be noted, almost all are extremely engaged, the ruling Party of Regions is leading. The united orange opposition lags behind somewhat. All the polls, one way or another, show a noticeable increase in Freedom - in effect the Nazi-Bandera party, popular in the western regions. However, the hit of the famous boxer Vitali Klitschko, which is predicted to be the place of the third force, if not the second, is certainly considered to be the hit of the current election.
Regionals in the future parliament may be blocked with the Communists, who will surely overcome the five percent barrier. Moderate Natsik from the united opposition are already blocked with the unlimited from "Freedom". Ukrainian voting is always a stalemate between East and West. In this stalemate, any supposedly “third force” receives a trump card in its hands. It is especially interesting if this is such a force.
The propaganda of the “Blow” is fully built on the distilled populism and image of the great boxer Klitschko, a tough fighter for all the good against all the bad things that bring order in Ukraine with one blow, tired of corruption, politicking and sluggish crisis.
Ukrainians are tired of the current government. And before that, they were so disappointed in the orange ones that even the martyrdom of Tymoshenko, who is in prison, is not at all for what was to blame, did not return them to their previous popularity. Both semi-official "old" coalitions for any polls are gaining a little more than 20 percent. That is, Ukraine, tired of both blue and orange, exhausted by the triumph of democracy, is ready to choose a concussion.
What it was - Ukraine will find out later. If he wants. In the case of a stalemate, Klichkovtsy, who are in themselves quite orange, will nevertheless open bargaining. They will trade by themselves. That is, at the same time, with the voices of the hit Ukrainians. The Ukrainian government is always a coalition of clans. In principle, the same.
Formatting these coalitions is a real bargaining! - will start after the election. And it is clear that being hit on the head in this bargaining is a very convenient resource.
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