"Shahed" - "Barvinok" over Russian cities: prospects and options
To begin with: do not rush to search the Internet for a UAV called "Barvinok". He is not there yet. This is just an analogy with "Geranium", as a very common flower in Ukraine, one of the symbols, one might say.
In this material, I propose to consider a hypothetical possibility for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to get at their disposal devices similar to the Shahed and possible countermeasures.
Today we can already safely admit: ideal weapon terror is no longer a cruise missile, but a flying "moped" with a warhead. At the very least, the effectiveness of this miracle weapon is simply stunning, and the price-quality ratio simply makes the manufacturers of the corresponding weapons shudder nervously at night.
What is the success of "Shahed"?
In simplicity. Made from “dung and sticks”, a plastic body plus a simply unique engine, which is based on the famous VW “Boxer” engine that powered such an epic car as the Volkswagen Beetle. The first, naturally.
Based on this engine, Limbach Flugmotoren from Königswinter developed their Limbach L550E, an excellent engine for superlight aircraft and gliders, weighing only 16 kg and producing 50 hp. (almost like the most powerful Zhukovsky motor).
The 550E gained recognition in the world, mainly due to the fact that it had an incomparable ratio of 2,3 kW of power per 1 kg of weight. In comparison, the Rotax 914, used in such serious vehicles as the Bayraktar TB2, has a power of 115 hp. (more than twice as much), but a dry weight of 60 kg, which gives a ratio of 0,98 kW per 1 kg.
Now those who know will object that it is impossible to compare the Rotax resource and the Chinese or Iranian copy of the German motor. And we won't. We do not need it, "Bayraktar", if it is not knocked down, will fly its 200-300 hours, but for the "Shahed" with a one-way ticket, this is absolutely not important.
Yes, I forgot to say that after the attack on the oil enterprises of the Aramco company in Saudi Arabia from the territory of Yemen, Germany generally stopped selling 550E engines for export. But by this time, MD 550 was already being riveted in China, and MADO MD 550 in Iran.
It should be noted that the Iranian copy of the Chinese unlicensed copy of the German motor works quite well for itself. Proven by the CHP of Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine.
So, some plastic for the case, one and a half linear meters of a corner for a stretcher, the cheapest satellite navigation board from Ali Express, a set of drives for control, Orduinka, fifty kilograms of explosives, a detonator - and the most effective weapon of the SVO is ready.
Moreover, the only thing that costs real money in this set is the engine. Everything else can be put in 500 US dollars. A German engine costs between $12 and $17, depending on the batch, but a copy of a Chinese copy, according to many experts, cannot cost more than $5-6.
As a result, we get a drone worth 6-8 thousand dollars with a capacity of 3-4 artillery shells with a caliber of 152 mm.
An economical, but powerful motor allows you to run the "moped" at a very decent distance. Of course, the promised 2 km is under very ideal weather conditions, but from 000 to 400 km the Shahed definitely flies. And it also hits quite accurately, as everyone has already seen.
What is its power?
The main thing is invisibility. "Shahed" is really a huge headache for air defense. For any air defense, not only Ukrainian. In essence, the radar should detect a 30 x 40 x 30 cm cube in the sky. This is not an easy task for the radar, it is very difficult to accomplish.
The same is true for aircraft radars. The best example was the losses of the Ukrainian Air Force, whose pilots flew to intercept the Shaheeds and accidentally became victims of these stupid but effective devices.
We all understand very well that the Shahed does not have an operator, the drone flies along the route laid down in it. The pilot is trying to visually and with the help of radar to find in the sky and attack the "bird", and she just flies into the plane. Finita, "the catapult is salvation," as they sang in the old song about the Phantom.
Dodge in an airplane at current speeds from drone almost impossible. The speed of a modern aircraft is too high and the size of a flying landmine is too small. And the detonator, in general, does not care about whom to blow up the charge, as long as there is contact.
In Ukraine, they have already figured out and stopped firing from machine guns and machine guns at the Shahids flying towards the target. There is a chance to hit, but the charge will still explode, so it’s really better to let it activate on the CHP pipe than on a residential building.
The ideal weapon of terror, Shahed UAV. It’s very difficult to detect, it’s still possible visually when approaching, but here it’s for sure, “whoever didn’t hide is not to blame”, it’s problematic to shoot down, even if he is shot down, he still explodes on something.
The launch is carried out from a mobile ramp on a truck chassis. In general, this launcher can be installed anywhere, which greatly expands the possibilities of application. Programming is simple, by coordinates. The main thing is that there are satellites, according to the signals of which the device is oriented.
Does "Shahed" have disadvantages? Perhaps only one: the impossibility of changing course in flight. That is, where they were sent, they will fly there. This means that moving targets are not for the Shahed, but any static objects of military and civilian infrastructure are welcome.
Indeed, in its simplicity and effectiveness, Shahed is as perfect as a punishing sword.
Moreover, its low cost and absolutely no manufacturability, which allows you to assemble such devices in any more or less suitable size premises, is also a plus! You can collect thousands of such devices and arrange punitive raids anywhere.
Yes, some part will be knocked down. Air defense, aircraft, helicopters, riflemen. But most of it will fly in and explode!
Moreover, with the planes, I obviously got excited. It's not that the Shahed can fly on an airplane, yes, it happened, but an airplane is a very inconvenient thing to deal with such objects.
For all its maneuverability, the MiG-29 is a large and, compared to a quietly rattling drone, even a clumsy aircraft. If the radar does not "grab" the drone's engine, you should not count on IR systems at all, the air-cooled internal combustion engine is generally cold in comparison with a normal turbojet engine of either an airplane or a helicopter. Not every warhead will capture a drone.
Plus the small size of the "Shahed" and the small ammunition load of the aircraft's cannon for such an apparatus. 150 rounds is nothing at all. The 30-mm air gun projectile is not designed for such a target. It just won't notice the plastic in its path. That is, you need to get into the engine. Again, in a 30 cm cube. From an airplane that flies at a minimum speed of 700 km/h.
So-so occupation.
At one time, I already considered the issue of combating drones, and then the conclusion was this: the best means is a low-speed aircraft such as a helicopter or a light aircraft with a piston engine, capable of loitering at low speed, covering a certain area.
The best means of combating a Shahed-class drone is a rapid-fire machine gun with a caliber of 7,62 to 12,7 mm. The ideal is something like the American M134 Minigun or our YakB-12,7. The main thing is to be able to quickly issue a cloud of bullets in the direction of the flying "Shahed". Something will fly in the right place.
M134 Minigun. UAV Fighter's Dream
YakB-12.7. A very weighty argument.
So the Americans very successfully fought unarmored Japanese aircraft in World War II. Guns were not needed, a couple of bullets from large-caliber Brownings were enough, and the song of the samurai was sung.
Quite a viable idea in our times.
The question of detection is the most difficult question. Judging by the reports from the other side, the Shaheds were mostly detected visually, fortunately, the drone flies even more ingenuously than a cruise missile. But at least the Stinger can fill up the CD, but the small rubbish, rattling literally a couple of hundred meters above the ground, is only a bullet.
In general, the developers of detection systems need to start solving the problem that flew on the wings of an Iranian drone. The problem of detecting a small aircraft must be solved, and the sooner the better. Why - it will become clear below.
Why are we not ready for this?
Because there was no such task: to work out the issues of detecting and destroying such aircraft. We had and are armed with flying targets, but this is a little different. The same "Tribute", a simulator of aircraft and cruise missiles, has dimensions of almost 5 meters in length and almost three meters in wingspan. It weighs about 350 kg and flies at speeds from 300 km/h to 700 km/h.
And here is 100 kg, rattling at a speed of 185 km / h, in ideal conditions. And the metal in the design is 17 kg maximum.
We need new ways to detect and track such targets. We need new methods of interception. As Ukrainian practice shows, defeat on the final leg of the flight is ineffective. More precisely, it is effective, but not when it comes to urban development, where an anti-aircraft missile first falls with the remnants of fuel, which, as expected, suits special effects, and then another 50-kg Shaheda warhead is added.
Indeed, it would be better to get to the CHP.
The most embarrassing question of our time
It sounds like this: can the Ukrainians adopt our tactics and start terrorizing our cities?
The answer, unfortunately, is “why not?”. And indeed, drones are produced in Ukraine on their own, approximately on the same level with us. That is, few and not very good. That is why unmanned vehicles are brought to them from all over the world. But they're taking it.
However, not all, not for free and not in the desired quantities. Israel generally refused, despite pressure from you-know-who, to sell its weapons systems to Ukrainians.
And not that “nothing personal, just business”, no. The Israelis have clearly worked the mechanisms that are controlled by the instinct of self-preservation. Nothing personal, yes, but I really want to live. Therefore, Israel chose not to seek adventure in the Holy Land and dispense with supplies to Ukraine.
After all, what did the Ukrainian side want in the main? That's right, Israeli UAVs and air defense systems. But in Israel they soberly judged that everything that would be sold to Ukraine could end up in Iran. But this is just not the alignment that would suit the Israelis, because Iran is an enemy country.
And all Israeli weapons can easily get to Iran, moreover, even in two ways. The first one, the simplest one, will be sold by the Ukrainians themselves. After the Javelin, handed over to Ukraine, tested the hull of the French armored personnel carrier in the center of Africa, this should not be surprising at all. Will sell if the price is right.
The second is through Russia. There, the equipment does not come into our possession for money, but this does not change the essence. In general, in this conflict, technology changes owners with amazing ease. And since the T-90MS ended up in the United States, why don't we share it with Iran, with which we have simply gorgeous relations? Can we?
That is why the very pragmatic Israelis refused. Not every shekel is in profit, as they say.
What would I do in the place of the Ukrainians?
Naturally, I would have stood in line for the "Shaheds" to Iran! Stupid? Well, not at all. Why not buy? Moreover, it is absolutely not necessary directly. There is already a queue. The Armenians were the first to rush, others followed them.
Who prevents Kazakhstan from standing in line and buying a "trial" batch of a hundred pieces? Nobody. A hundred too many? Okay, fifty. For testing and more. Is it difficult to smuggle part of this batch to Ukraine? No. One can only applaud the extent to which today's Kazakh authorities dance the hopak in unison with the Ukrainians.
Yes, and weapons from Kazakhstan have already ended up in Ukraine. Yes, the authorities seem to have turned away that “this is not what you think”, this is a private deal, the state has nothing to do with it ... but the point is the same - Kazakhstan may well become an intermediary in the acquisition of "Shaheds" for Ukraine. And Azerbaijan can. And Georgia. And the one who will be asked from Washington.
And it won't be a very pleasant moment. Today, Ukrainians are hammering the Belgorod and Kursk regions in the old fashioned way. Artillery and missiles. And having at their disposal a "miracle weapon" they can begin to work miracles even at a greater distance from the border.
And here the head will hurt not only in Kursk and Belgorod. The geography of the use of Ukrainian drones can be significantly expanded at the expense of the Rostov and Voronezh regions. But in principle, everything that is within a radius of 500 km, that is, the Oryol, Lipetsk, Tambov, Bryansk regions are also on this mournful list. Yes, and to Moscow, if you start from the forest between Sumy and Konotop, less than 600 km.
Moscow, of course, is covered, as no other Russian city is covered, but it will not be easy for everyone else. But even in Moscow, one should not be calm about what is happening.
The rest will not be easy at all. A new type of strike weapon was born before our eyes, and who said that the enemy, having experienced all the advantages of this type of weapon in his own skin, would not want to respond in kind?
This is a perfectly normal desire. And the methods by which this result can be achieved are quite vital. Well, why not start designing and building drones yourself? In the country, as it were, the situation is not quite suitable for such undertakings. But you can buy, especially since Europe and the United States throw money systematically and regularly. Of course, most of the military assistance is not in monetary terms, but Ukrainians will have enough to buy drones and pay intermediaries.
Not a very good prospect. Here, of course, a lot depends on the suppliers of this equipment, how carefully they will work out their customers. But, again, anything is possible.
Therefore, it is necessary to work out options for protection today. And there are few options. Yes, we have a "Shilka" capable of making a shower of 23-mm shells. We have a ZU-23-2M, which may well work for such purposes. But since you will often have to rely on the visual mode of operation, appropriate training of calculations and spotter observers is necessary.
Or very clear intelligence work is needed (which we clearly cannot boast of now), which will track the movements of launchers with their subsequent destruction. But this, unfortunately, looks a bit fantastic.
As practice shows, the temptation can be so great that the voice of reason (which is already neglected in Ukraine) will not be heard. And then we need to be prepared for the fact that "Shaheds" will also fly to us, who will be called "Periwinkles".
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