Military Review

In the West, they thought about the impact of the nuclear deal with Iran on the security of the Persian Gulf countries

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In the West, they thought about the impact of the nuclear deal with Iran on the security of the Persian Gulf countries

Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran are now resuming, then subside again, but if it is nevertheless restored, the question will arise of how this will affect the security situation of Iran's closest neighbors, primarily the Persian Gulf countries. A publication on this topic was published in Breaking Defense.


There is no doubt that Iran poses a very significant threat to the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. First, it is a direct competitor in the energy market. Secondly, Iran has a strong influence on the Shiite communities of Southwest Asia, and there are many Shiites not only in Yemen or Bahrain, but also in Saudi Arabia. By the way, Shiites here live in oil-bearing regions, which worries the Saudis so much.

According to John Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the nuclear agreement with Iran will not change the situation in the region much. After all, Tehran will not stop either other missile programs or its expansionist activities in Southwest Asia.

The US authorities have now withdrawn from active discussion of the resumption of the nuclear deal amid attempts to ignite the “Maidan” in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini. Reports from the IAEA that Iran is continuing programs to improve uranium enrichment also do not encourage the resumption of negotiations on the deal. And the US is losing interest in the Iranian issue as it focuses more and more on confrontation with Russia and China.

For America, confrontation with Russia and China is existential, not with Iran. There is one more nuance. Recently, relations between the US and such key Gulf states as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become increasingly cool. First, US President Joe Biden allowed himself accusations and insults against the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, then Saudi Arabia supported OPEC+ in reducing oil production. Now, in Washington, some politicians are already talking about the desirability of withdrawing US anti-missile forces from Saudi Arabia.

Realizing that in the situation of the withdrawal of the Americans, the defense capability of the region will be significantly reduced, the Saudis will buy new air defense and missile defense systems, as well as work on their own nuclear developments. On the other hand, Arab monarchies can take steps to improve relations with Iran. For example, Kuwait and the UAE have recently returned ambassadors to Tehran.

At the same time, some experts admit the possibility of forming a kind of anti-Iranian alliance in the Middle East, by analogy with NATO in Europe. It may include the United States, Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, probably Jordan. It is possible that even Israel may be called, given the improvement in relations between the Jewish state and the Arab monarchies. If Washington wants to maintain its influence in the region, the decision to create an alliance would look like a very reasonable initiative.

However, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, sees the creation of an "Arab NATO bloc" as unrealistic. For example, if the UAE can come to an agreement with Israel, then Kuwait definitely can't, and you can't even talk about Iraq. Saudi Arabia, too, may be wary of entering into an alliance with Israel due to the fact that its image in the Islamic world will then be dealt a crushing blow, and this will play into the hands of Iran.

Therefore, scenarios for the further development of events in the Middle East can be very different and, most likely, they will be greatly influenced by processes taking place far outside the region, including in Eastern Europe and East Asia.
Author:
Photos used:
Wikipedia / Hosein Velayati
18 comments
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  1. rocket757
    rocket757 14 October 2022 14: 37
    +2
    In the West, they thought about the impact of the nuclear deal with Iran on the security of the Persian Gulf countries
    . So they themselves messed up, and now they argue, if only, if only!
    Consider that not a single aggravation of the situation in the world is complete without the influence of the brazen Saxons, and even the gay Europeans, who are climbing somewhere !!!
    1. Barberry25
      Barberry25 14 October 2022 15: 03
      +1
      the joke is not even that the Saxons have a plug in every barrel, but that they always offer to "negotiate" in the end, but they have ALREADY shown that there is no point in negotiating with them - they do not comply with their obligations
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 14 October 2022 15: 10
        0
        A lot of strange things happened in the world ... it feels like nothing is over yet.
        1. Barberry25
          Barberry25 14 October 2022 15: 25
          0
          the spiral of history .. the main thing is for us to prepare and, ideally, that the main storm passes without our participation .. let the Americans suffer without us .. I wonder how soon the refugee riots will begin in Europe.
        2. Alex777
          Alex777 14 October 2022 16: 45
          0
          Quote: rocket757
          A lot of strange things happened in the world ... it feels like nothing is over yet.

          It's only the beginning.
          And the Anglo-Saxons are less and less able to divide and rule.
          If, by some miracle, KSA and IRI level relations,
          then it might be interesting.
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 14 October 2022 19: 46
            +1
            The problem is that the principle, divide and rule, is used by all / any ruling / ruling.
            One hechemon becomes decrepit, to replace him, immediately, another comes.
            The system is so built and has existed for a long time.
            When something can change ... who knows??
  2. Ural_engineer
    Ural_engineer 14 October 2022 14: 40
    -1
    The West thought

    A complete lie, they no longer know how to think. Generally.
  3. Two
    Two 14 October 2022 14: 41
    +1
    hi The "civilized" creations of a nuclear bomb by the Persians are quietly watching! But the stench is already rushing with might and main and they can no longer do anything ...
  4. Alexga
    Alexga 14 October 2022 14: 51
    +1
    Something I think that if you turn off the United States from the world processes, then in almost all regions of the world you can reach an agreement. True, there will be problems with Israel. Although...
  5. Codett
    Codett 14 October 2022 14: 53
    +1
    They thought, well, yes, they rather think they can still arrange a war game, preferably with the wrong hands and cut down the dough, and then they will have to do everything
  6. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 14 October 2022 14: 54
    +2
    some experts admit the possibility of forming in the Middle East a kind of anti-Iranian alliance by analogy with NATO in Europe.
    fool About 10 years ago, it was necessary to think, and not to pick your nose "I'm the coolest!", And now the Bobby is dead, and with the taxi-driven USA at the same table, only occupied Europe can voluntarily sit down. request
  7. Thrifty
    Thrifty 14 October 2022 14: 55
    +1
    We need to be more independent in our actions and lift sanctions from the North Korean state. And if there are also sanctions against the Persians, imposed to please the United States, then they should also be removed immediately, and never be introduced again!
    1. Normann
      Normann 14 October 2022 16: 06
      0
      You do not understand the sanctions against the Russian Federation - this is different, they give us sanctions, and we express concern.
  8. fighter angel
    fighter angel 14 October 2022 14: 58
    +1
    Big hello to cunning Jews!
    Continue to harness even more for staffers, impudent Saxons, Heiropeans and their Bandera sixes !!!
  9. RuAbel
    RuAbel 14 October 2022 15: 06
    +1
    Herace! It's time to discuss the problems in Islam 500 years ago))) And the fact that the Muslims of the Persian Gulf do not want to lose profits from energy sales has nothing to do with it, yeah. There are no former colonizers?)
    1. Normann
      Normann 14 October 2022 16: 11
      0
      You come to the store and say - for some reason you have a very expensive sausage, I decided that you will have enough for as long as I decided, but they do not want to agree, they do not obey. (
  10. ASM
    ASM 14 October 2022 19: 13
    0
    So the agreement with Iran was ready for signing even under Trump. And, all of a sudden, he was just swept away. And how to believe these nonentities? You just need to stand your ground!
  11. IT Analyst
    IT Analyst 16 October 2022 01: 13
    0
    I think Mexico and Venezuela (at the first stage) want to place on their territory universal Iskander launchers to stabilize the world situation and fight the pirates of Antarctica