Oil prices: why OPEC-plus goes negative again

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Oil prices: why OPEC-plus goes negative again

These days in Vienna, in an atmosphere of not the closest, one might say, on-duty attention from the media, another series of meetings is being held under the auspices of OPEC. Oil managed to rise in price by at least four percent even before October 5, the day when key decisions were made.

Nevertheless, the feeling does not leave that when gas passions flare up more and more, the cartel, one might say, was expected to be in the shadows. And this, despite the fact that the sanctions' games with Russian oil prices remain on the agenda.



However, few people now have doubts that OPEC, even if it does not advertise it, will try to put on the brakes the very idea of ​​regulating hydrocarbon prices by "outsiders". After all, prices were once released not for someone to manipulate them.

It is impossible not to recall that the mechanisms of the notorious OPEC-plus deal provide for the unanimity of its participants, including non-members of the cartel. Interestingly, at the same time, statements have already been made in Vienna, such as "Russia will still regret not joining OPEC."


But this is only from the lips of fellow journalists. However, there are those, and not only in the press, who regularly recall the two-year-old oil war between Moscow and Riyadh. However, as you know, it ended with just a successful resuscitation of still dock-like agreements.

At the same time, in the OPEC oil cartel, expanded, very conditionally, under a plus deal, not one of the defendants even stutters about pre-war agreements and prices. And this is understandable - the special operation still does not have any tangible impact on the oil market.

Of course, it could potentially, and in the future it may well, if the NMD develops not into an ATO - an anti-terrorist operation, which would be absolutely true), but into a large-scale war. Who is interested in the latest scenario? It seems that no one, no matter how much you say about the "hand of Washington" and the intrigues of the CIA and Mi-6.

Just a couple of years later


The pause in face-to-face meetings between members of the OPEC+ agreement dragged on for two years. It turns out that covid is indeed worse than war. However, it should be so - fuel is in demand not only by the warring parties, but also by those who are behind them.

However, OPEC + is already actively analyzing the possible consequences of reducing oil production by 500 thousand - 1 million barrels per day. By October 2, the information leaked to the press - specifically to the Financial Times, and three days before the main summit in Vienna, something will have to be done about it.

The position of Saudi Arabia is understandable - it urgently needs at least some kind of reserve in case of an unexpected surge in demand. And it is quite possible if the events in Ukraine take a really sharp turn. Then there will simply be no extra Russian oil, and by and large there will be no one to close the embrasure.

On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that in December the EU embargo on Russian oil will come into force. And with this scenario, the terrorist attacks on the Nord Streams somehow very clearly fit. Isn't that why Russia is going to Vienna with an unequivocal position - "for a general reduction in production."

After all, it is already known that the revenues of the Russian budget from the sale of oil, as well as gas, have fallen markedly in recent months. Buyers shamelessly use this, knocking out, and without much difficulty, not to say unprecedented - it happened worse, but very serious discounts.


The million barrels per day mentioned on the eve of Vienna 2022 is the largest reduction in production since the spring of 2020 - the beginning of the pandemic. Oil producers simply do not have faith that the economy will not fall into recession. Moreover, the world's central banks are shamelessly tightening their monetary policy.

It seems that it is not with us, but they really "have no money." And even 300 stolen Russian billions do not help. In the US, prices are rising, so are bank rates. And it is not so much ordinary Americans who are paying for this - a gallon of gasoline there is no longer more expensive, even cheaper, than developing countries.

OPEC is trying to be proactive, preempting everything it can, especially with the support of the participants in a positive deal. Well-known industry expert, analyst at the research company Kpler Victor Katona believes that “only OPEC+ can wake up oil prices from their current slumber”.

Give me a million, give me a million


As a matter of fact, OPEC is simply being forced to become like Panikovsky - the “great blind man”. And for the sake of maintaining the oil market, oil producers can do anything. And it is unlikely that there is now at least someone against high oil prices.

More than two years ago, things were different. And one could even say that excess oil revenues are a bigger headache than falling profits. But then, after all, the pandemic and the global crisis, and even more so the threat of a third world war, were considered almost the fantasies of experts.

Now few people will remember this, and the decline in production levels due to fear of a recession is no longer a forecast, but a reality. The recession itself is also a reality, only slightly disguised by the reports of financial structures. But these people will always be able to draw what they need.

With oil, this is unlikely to work - they do not count virtual dollars, but real barrels. Small, no matter what happens there, and not at all necessary - the “victorious” war, by and large, does not solve anything. The notorious warming up of military production by no means guarantees a warming up of the economy as a whole.

Today, global capital has clearly found itself in a dead end, and betting only on money, as the best regulator of everything and everything, does not justify itself. However, someone really doesn’t want to bet on something real, the same Trump was simply “gobbled up” for this. But he and the Republicans may well return.

But is the mighty American economy ready for their return? The economy of services and financial speculation, where the share of the real sector has already fallen to the critical “below 20 percent?”. Alas, there is no need to wait for an answer to this question in Vienna.
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18 comments
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  1. for
    0
    5 October 2022 16: 27
    Outbid, also consumption?
    I’m watching one trucker from the USA (Belarusian) says it’s difficult, but you have to work, not cry (not literally, you don’t feel like looking).
  2. +4
    5 October 2022 16: 31
    I didn’t understand anything from the article ... but according to the situation, the Aierikos wanted to bend the Arabs and asked them to increase production in order to bring down prices. The Arabs sent them and decided to cut production.
    1. +1
      5 October 2022 17: 02
      The Arabs sent them and decided to cut production

      Well, yes, something like this... wink
    2. +2
      7 October 2022 09: 21
      I did not understand anything from the article ...
      And not only you. Me too. Then I looked that the authors Podymov and So. and calmed down. All their articles are written on the principle of "look how smart I am."
  3. -1
    5 October 2022 16: 35
    Lepota...! Russia West oil and gas at a discount, and they are as payment for weapons ukroreyhu for the war against Russia!
    1. +1
      5 October 2022 16: 52
      Quote: EFIM LYUBIN
      Russia West oil and gas at a discount, and they are as payment for weapons ukroreyhu for the war against Russia!

      And not only this is outrageous, everyone has already trampled on the question: "why change strategic raw materials for toxic pieces of paper?" The answer was recently given by the Central Bank - the withdrawal of the currency over the hill has already surpassed the annual forecasts of the Central Bank itself! 300 lard was not enough for our compradors, did you decide to shake mother Russia again?!
      1. -1
        5 October 2022 17: 44
        Well, yes, yes ... do you think that 700 thousand runners with rubles rushed? And no one has yet canceled international trade.
        1. +3
          5 October 2022 18: 51
          Quote: Alexey Sedykin
          700 thousand runners with rubles rushed? And no one has yet canceled international trade.
          Where are the numbers from? Did you take it between the PP - floor and ceiling? Even bureaucrats gave figures 10 times smaller! laughing
          In 2022, a total of $200 billion will be withdrawn from Russia, follows from the report of BCS Global Markets (BCS GM)
          Do not confuse the withdrawal of capital from the country with payment under the contract, do not fool people if you do not understand some things! I wrote in my post about trade with the EU - it makes no sense for us to exchange resources for paper, for which we have nothing to buy in the EU! I remind you, if you forgot - sanctions! With friendly countries, we trade for our currencies, again, if you are not in the know.
          1. -1
            5 October 2022 19: 21
            Why do we only trade with the EU? That's how it is, but I didn’t even know ... but as for the number, I took the average ones because the maximum number is already 2.27 lyama, which is hard to believe.
            1. 0
              6 October 2022 19: 10
              Quote: Alexey Sedykin
              Why do we only trade with the EU? That's how it is, I didn't even know...
              Is it really that hard to understand what is written? Do you think that capital is being withdrawn to India, China, etc.? friendly countries? What difference does it make who we trade with?! Or did your "runners" take out yuan, or rupees, did you mean this currency? I indicated a specific, "toxic" currency, which is the euro and the dollar, they were discussed and do not pretend that you did not understand what currency is being withdrawn from the country, just do not answer!
              1. -2
                6 October 2022 21: 36
                Firstly, for the national currency, trade between countries is just beginning; most of the turnover is still the same dollar and euro. And I doubt that the runners ran with our rubles or yuan ... The withdrawal of capital is just a banal purchase of currency, even if this currency remained in the country, but nevertheless, this is also a conclusion.
                1. -1
                  8 October 2022 21: 55
                  Quote: Alexey Sedykin
                  The withdrawal of capital is just a banal purchase of currency, even if it remains in the country, but nevertheless it is also a conclusion.

                  There is only one conclusion from your post: you do not understand anything about what you are writing about! The withdrawal of the currency from the country does not mean the withdrawal from circulation of the currency purchased by the citizen (if he bought the currency, put it in his wallet, it only means withdrawal from circulation), but his crossing the border with the purchased currency! The withdrawal of the currency from the country means a change of its jurisdiction! I tried not to answer!
    2. 0
      5 October 2022 20: 07
      Quote: EFIM LYUBIN
      Russia West oil and gas at a discount, and they are as payment for weapons ukroreyhu for the war against Russia!

      The world has become too small for global capitalism. Globalism, no matter how it is idolized or hated, seriously rules the world. It is no longer possible to live completely autonomously on the planet. If you export something, then there is no guarantee that it will not get to your enemy.

      The economy of services and financial speculation, where the share of the real sector has already fallen to the critical “below 20 percent?”.

      This is a sign of all "developed capitalist countries".
      Alas, there is no need to wait for an answer to this question in Vienna.

      The question is too complicated. Capitalism is dying, its agonizing body can no longer be saved. And ahead looms either the too terrible silhouette of socialism, or a new post-capitalism, which can be reached only through breaking the entire two-century system.
      1. +1
        5 October 2022 22: 15
        Quote: FIR FIR
        The world has become too small for global capitalism.

        There is a way out. Fly into space and explain to aliens that they, in fact, need democracy, that their banking system is not organized correctly, and there are some extra factories - you need to buy everything on Earth, and not do it yourself - and if not agree, we will now demolish the factories ourselves. To save your environment, of course.
  4. -1
    5 October 2022 16: 45
    And... interestingly, the Operation is already openly called a war, and they make hints... and for some reason they mold it to oil.
    And the rest - everything is the same. The oil oligarchs are getting high. De facto resellers also often work for them. Relatively recently, satisfied oil sheikhs flew around the world, agreed, and looked into Moscow, despite the sanctions ... So it’s profitable for them to keep high prices, and even the level - IMHO, at the limit, so that the economy in the world does not crumble ...
  5. 0
    5 October 2022 17: 05
    Eternal struggle, the buyer wants to buy cheaper, the seller wants to sell more expensive. And here OPEC + wins, making oil a scarce commodity. Target ? The transfer of production to countries with cheap raw materials, the transition of the world's real economy into the hands of countries with raw materials. The time when industrialized countries dictated their terms to raw materials is coming to an end. hi
    1. 0
      5 October 2022 18: 33
      Quote: fif21
      the transition of the world's real economy into the hands of commodity-producing countries.

      I would not talk about the transfer of the economy. Rather, the realization that raw materials are a real lever of influence on the economies of other countries. Europe proudly stamped its foot in relation to Russia, and then the leadership of the countries flew off to beg for supplies of this raw material. why go far there, the same situation with grain. Everyone was hypocritically crying about the poor countries, which threatens them with famine, but as soon as it became possible to ship it, the grain was taken to their relatives.
  6. -1
    6 October 2022 05: 38
    Saudi Arabia is in the best position. In terms of consumption and production. The rest either rob shamelessly or give for nothing. For beads.

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