"If at least one Turkish soldier ..."
Was this conversation between Vladimir Putin and the Turkish Prime Minister R. T. Erdogan, or was he invented by creative personalities from the media? .. After all, in the 21st century, the press almost caught up with fiction, the consumption of which in the world is gradually falling.IA "REGNUM" With reference to the Turkish newspaper Aydinlik, it reproduces the recent telephone dialogue between Putin and Erdogan, as if it were transcribed:
- If at least one Turkish soldier crosses the Syrian border, Russia will react very hard.
- This is a threat? For us, this is unacceptable.
- Think as you wish, I said my word.
- This is a threat? For us, this is unacceptable.
- Think as you wish, I said my word.
Attribution dialogue seems unnecessary.
The opinion is expressed that with the last word, comrade Putin put the phone on the lever. Other journalists believe that Mr. Erdogan was the first to throw the phone (and not put it). Finally, third media workers who are skeptical and fantasized, unlike other lively colleagues, are deprived, believe that this blunt, categorical conversation was not.
The reason for the conversation, if it really took place, was, perhaps, an unpleasant incident with an Airbus that took place on the evening of October 10 from Moscow to Damascus and was forced to land in Ankara, accompanied by two Turkish Air Force fighters. R.T. Erdogan decided that there were not only peaceful passengers on the plane, but also a military cargo flying to Damascus, namely: weapons and ammunition. The plane was searched for eight hours, but nothing was found except legal cargo. As a result, carping at the "design" of the twelve boxes. And they were confiscated. The passengers, among whom there were seventeen Russians, did not even think of feeding. People spent eight hours on board, waiting for the gracious permission of the Turkish authorities to take off. Only 18 of October it became known that Ankara recognized: yes, the cargo is legal and legal. This electrical equipment, which is not contrary to international conventions and the carriage of which is not prohibited. You never know it is a "dual purpose." And it does not matter where the liner was heading - let it go to Syria, which Mr. Erdogan, in collaboration with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is dreaming of splitting into flightless and buffer zones. The civilian airbus did not carry any ammunition (and more than atomic bombs and chemical weapons) there.
Belatedly Turkey expressed official regret over the delay of the flight and the inconvenience caused to passengers. Like, we did not know that the Russians were flying there, otherwise they wouldn’t have done so ugly. The information arrived late, and all that kind of other justification.
But the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Comrade Lukashevich saidthat, as citizens who were aboard the liner testify, representatives of Turkish law enforcement officers were rude to them, and even physical measures were applied to the crew members. Therefore, Moscow insists on the need to thoroughly investigate all the details of the incident and obtain explanations from the Turkish authorities. And the Kremlin is awaiting the return of the seized cargo.
Whatever one may say, the Turks did badly: the plane was detained and subjected to illegal search, the passengers were left hungry, they were rude, they used measures, they apologized late ... In general, this whole action with fighters ought to be equated to air piracy. Pirates differ only in that from detectives and prime ministers that apologies do not bring. However, the times are changing, and with them, mores.
The liner is one reason for the current cooling of Moscow’s relations with Ankara. The second reason can be called already long-standing. This is Syria.
Israeli resource Zman.com with alarm пишет that what is happening in Syria more and more resembles a war not only regional, but global in scale.
Turkey, Lebanon, Russia, the United States are already involved in the conflict, there are other, so far indirect participants. And if Moscow and Washington "break their spears in the next diplomatic confrontation," then Ankara "declares itself as an active player in the Middle East arena, who intends to defend its interests and pursue its geopolitics ..."
And indeed: the Turks not only forcibly landed a civilian airliner, referring to their intelligence information on ammunition and weapons on board, but also concentrated large army forces in the area of the border with Syria. Nearly one hundred thousand Syrian refugees found temporary shelter in Turkey. Erdogan, like a year ago, sharply opposes the “regime” of Bashar al-Assad and calls on the Western countries to overthrow him.
NATO and the West, however, ambitious Turkish politicians do not really encourage. Probably, Mr. Erdogan is looking forward to Romney’s coming to power. Before the 6 elections in November, there was nothing left, and there it was within reach of the January inauguration. It is difficult to say what the policy of Romney, who is more concerned with Iran and Russia (enemy number one), can be with respect to Syria; however, Romney has not yet elected. One thing is clear: the United States does not want any power to strengthen in the Middle East. Nowadays, the theory of controlled chaos is in vogue in America, but it does not at all imply anyone's regional domination: this state of affairs would differ significantly from their aspirations of the hegemon of the globe. Americans are not eager to see "powers" on the world map.
By the way, a much more ancient way of subjugating peoples fits into the formulation of just three words: “Divide and conquer” (there are many versions of the origin of this principle of management, it is possible that its author is Comrade Machiavelli). According to this principle, the USA worked in the geopolitical direction earlier, and it worked out quite well for them. There is no longer the USSR or its reinforced satellites from Eastern Europe.
But now the Middle East, along with North Africa, is hitting its democrats. The “Arab Spring” turned against the United States: they’ll burn the stars and stripes in Cairo, they will kill the ambassador and three more Americans in Benghazi, then Iraq will decide to buy weapons from Russia - as much as five billion dollars - and at the same time make friends with Iran, with who quarreled before. And in Egypt in general 87 percent, according to recent survey, they are in favor of creating an atomic bomb, and a little less than a percent believe that Iran is Egypt's best friend. But Israel, an ally of the United States, is not at all a friend.
In such a geopolitical situation, Turkey, with its regional claims, should behave much more cautiously.
Browser Yusuf Kanli считаетthat Turkey - as one of the clear supporters of the creation of a buffer zone in Syria - may eventually be drawn into a war. Why is this necessary? The author, who passed Erdogan's ambitions, does not find the answer. (However, Erdogan and the Turkish people are different concepts, what Erdogan needs is hardly required by the people. We will return to this later). Then the analyst asks another question: is Turkey at all able to occupy the territory of Syria, establish the state of transition to a democratic form of government there and then peacefully withdraw the troops? Probably, the occupying side of Syria is still implied by the West, not Turkey.
Yes, this conclusion suggests itself: after all, Turkey constantly makes harsh statements for NATO and the UN Security Council. And the other day Erdogan in Istanbul even announced the displacement of the center of the world. Where exactly the center is shifting from America, he did not say, but you can guess. But this new center, or one of the centers, is very shy (since the era of multipolarity is coming), the center that is turning to the Security Council, now to NATO, now to the USA ... Here, for example, China, which is much more like a new center power behaves quite independently. If he needs to say something about the islands - he says. It is necessary to bring the warships to the oil-bearing shelf - it leads. It is necessary to build the city of Sansha in the disputed territory - it does just that. It is necessary to expel foreigners from Beijing - in the People's Daily and write about it. And they will say on TV. It is necessary to drop the production of "Toyota" or "Honda" with "Mazda" - will be dropped. This is an independent policy, regardless of its results. Turkey, possessing a fairly powerful army (military spending is several times higher than similar Syrian ones, although Syria has a good air defense system and an army trained in constant battles, and Moscow and Tehran are looming behind Damascus, and more recently Iraq). in statements. She would like to war with the hands of the West, I mean NATO or, in extreme cases, peacekeepers from the UN, and the West would like to do a bloody deed with Turkish hands. There is a vicious circle, and a politician of such a high rank and such great experience as R.T. Erdogan cannot but understand this. That is why he is nervous and makes hot statements - recognizing that no, the center has not shifted and that some people hope that this good old center with coordinates in Washington.
Comrade canli sets Another question: “Will Iran, Iraq and Russia remain indifferent spectators of how the Western world is shedding Turkish blood for the opportunity to occupy Syria?” Would it not be naive of them? ”
Judging by the telephone conversation (which, if it was invented, it was invented successfully), Russia this time will not be naive. And Obama in the White House realizes this, because he does not even go to Syria — well, except with millions of “humanitarian aid” from Hillary Clinton. Even Romney is unlikely to risk going there first - at least in order to annoy major "America's geopolitical enemy number one." Romney understands little in foreign policy, but he has advisers (for example, Mr. Bolton). They will dissuade him from hasty decisions. True, advisers will not give up the role of the hegemon that America should continue to play in the world. But Turkey as a local hegemon-prince and Bolton is not needed.
The collapse of Syria is a geopolitical gateway to Iran. Comrades Asad and Ahmadinejad are aware of such a possible scenario, and therefore they are very close friends, including in the military-strategic sense. Both Assad and Ahmadinejad see what is happening in the region: in Jordan distemper sowed by Islamists (the Muslim Brotherhood, and along with al Qaeda, whose planned terrorist attacks were recently successfully prevented by the local special services), in Saudi Arabia - the crisis of “gerontocracy” with a lot of heirs plus the rapid growth of public debt, which is the most favorable reason for the development of the Arab Spring in the country, and the UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who also sees and understands acted with a statement that the Gulf countries should cooperate in order to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy to undermine power in the entire region. And if Kuwait, which is unable to overpower the Brothers, under the name of the Islamic Constitutional Movement, representing the most powerful party in the state, is unlikely to be able to help with this, then the Saudis (the antagonists of the Brothers) and Bahrain with Oman will side with the UAE - because there "Brothers" are weak. Qatar, however, will be silent, being closely associated with the “Brothers”.
Therefore, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which together supply arms and ammunition to Syria, diverge here.
So, we have not two, but as many as three Middle Eastern "camps": Syria, Iran and Iraq - this is the time; Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are two; UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman - three. Kuwait and Jordan remain on the sidelines, but this is temporary; they will also have to take someone's side: the existence of the “Arab spring” determines political consciousness. For example, the King of Jordan, Abdullah II, will have to either adopt a constitutional monarchy, or oppose the Muslim Brotherhood, which he is ready to put forward an ultimatum about renunciation - and in January, probably, he will. If he opposes them, he will automatically be in the same group with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. And there is a case for Kuwait and Qatar.
Thus, the confrontation between Turkey and Syria, even the supposed one, has a huge impact on the situation throughout the Middle East. If the secular government of Assad is overthrown, and Syria splits into enclaves of Druze, Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis and Christians, plus some Turkish-NATO buffer zones, it will immediately turn into a seething cauldron of religious clashes, which will certainly be used by Islamist radicals, skillfully acting under democratic slogans, but under the black flag. No wonder al-Qaeda and terrorist mercenaries from all over the world are fighting in Syria. They are not fighting for American-style democracy there, so that Hillary Clinton would not think about it. However, earlier she admitted that she did not know who this opposition consists of. Of course, he does not know.
Another global player in the Middle East is Russia. No, it's not about the military base in the port of Tartus or the arms trade. The loss of Syria would mean for Russia a loss and influence in the region, and at the same time a long minus in foreign policy. If the Kremlin embarked on a policy of raising the country's role in world politics, then to miss Syria would mean to suddenly turn off this course. Thus, Putin would have reduced himself to a geopolitical zero, and Obama would have had occasion to declare the success of the “reset”. Therefore, the scenario of the Russian Federation refusing to veto at the UN Security Council is unlikely, no matter how the French and other Monsieur Europeans dreamed of, recently, at a Luxembourg dinner, “disappointed” by the unshakable stance of Comrade Lavrov.
Iraq with its Shiites (Premier Al-Maliki - Shiite) in the event of a total turmoil in the region will not remain indifferent either. The urgent purchase of weapons for large sums and new supply arrangements - with Russia and the Czech Republic - speaks volumes. Iraq is preparing for what may happen. And al-Maliki already dissociated himself from the USA - he saidthat Washington will not be able to block the contract for the purchase of Russian weapons signed by Baghdad:
“Whether it is the purchase of weapons or oil or political consultations, we do not consult anyone on these issues. Our foreign policy is to proceed from our own interests. ”
Curiously, some members of the Iraqi parliament count them.that, armed to the teeth, al-Maliki will ignite the flames of the internal conflict in Iraq, finally become friends with Iran, help Syria and complicate the country's relations with Turkey.
We can not say that they are greatly mistaken. But we must bear in mind that not al-Maliki will be the first, but Erdogan. It just so happened that it was he, with his claims to the great power of Ankara, "complicates the relationship." At the same time, Erdogan harms his own country: encouraging terrorism in Syria and getting refugees from the border, he squandered the budget, undermining a stable economy - which he is considered the father of. Thinking about the future multipolarity of the world, the Prime Minister seems to be not at all multipolarity. If a war begins in the region that encompasses several states, Turkey will not be happy. The wise Bashar Asad has already strategically warned Erdogan, allowing the Kurds on the border with Syria to create their own army. Yes, it can hurt Assad himself, but for now it hurts Turkey.
Dmitry Sedov on this topic пишет:
“However, a real blow to Turkish interests was dealt in July. city of Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad suggested that Syrian Kurds withdraw their army from their cities and villages and even grant them autonomy if they stop fighting in the ranks of the opposition. Assad's proposal was accepted. Syrian troops left the Kurdish territories, and the Kurds gained control over the territory of their residence in Syria and the border with Turkey. The Turkish authorities saw how Syrian Kurds began to hang out the flags of the Kurdish resistance forces operating in Turkey. The situation has radically changed, because yesterday the Kurdish enclaves in Syria were the springboard of the insurgency. Ankara intended to send troops there under the pretext of forming a “buffer zone” of security. And now it is a territory friendly to the Syrian government. Moreover, the Turkish authorities have every reason to believe that the infiltration of Kurdish separatists into Turkey from this territory will increase, including in order to organize terrorist acts.
There is no doubt that Bashar Asad took this bold step and achieved success after consulting with Tehran. ”
There is no doubt that Bashar Asad took this bold step and achieved success after consulting with Tehran. ”
If the Kurdish Workers' Party in Turkey and these new armed forces unite, the boomerang will return and hit Mr. Erdogan, who is so eager for regional hegemony, in the forehead. Approximately the same will return, as he returned to the United States in the cases of Al-Qaeda, raised in the 1980 of the CIA, and in the case of the Arab Spring, which turned into protests around the world on September 11 of the year 2012 - allegedly because of scandalous film "Innocence of Muslims".
If Erdogan calls NATO to fight, do the Turkish people want war with Syria?
October 21 in Hatay Province, Syria Passed the action “No to imperialist interference in the affairs of Syria”, during which a predictable clash took place between the youth wing of the Anti-imperialist Association of Turkey and the police: the administration of Governor Hatay did not give permission to hold a rally before.
Earlier, 20 of October, Turkish public organizations united for the sake of righteousness - the Confederation of Trade Unions of Revolutionary Workers, the Confederation of Civil Service Unions, the Federation of Engineers and Architects of Turkey, the Federation of Turkish Doctors - also held a protest in Ankara. They opposed the Justice and Development Party, led by Erdogan, the policy towards Syria, as well as its economic consequences. Protesters walked through the center of Ankara, unfolding a banner: “War means death, hunger, unemployment and price increases. There are no war-fed PSRs. ” The protest was supported by the Halkavleri organization of public education, the socialist parties and movements, the Turkish Communist Party and the Workers Movement Party. Protesters shouted slogans: "We will not allow war", "Tayyip who has sold out to the Americans", "AKP is an ally of the murderer - the USA", "AKP is away from Syria".
The Secretary General of the Confederation of Civil Service Unions of Turkey, Ismail Hakki Tombul, read an appeal to the press:
“The government of the AKP leads to the impoverishment of the people and, playing the role of a contractor in the imperialists' intervention in the life of Syria, pushes the country into a bloody war. Turkey is guilty of the death of innocent people of Syria. Ankara at the behest of the United States has become a regional military bridgehead and leads a militant policy inflating interfaith clashes. Educated under the influence of large military spending, the budget deficit is being tried to be closed at the expense of the workers ’pocket, introducing new taxes and raising prices.”
The course of neoosmanism, which adheres to the “moderate Islamist” R. T. Erdogan, not without purpose comparing the situation in Syria with the situation in Yugoslavia 1990's, before its collapse, however, Turkey cannot be realized. So считает the chief editor of Russia in Global Politics, Fedor Lukyanov, who recently visited Istanbul at a congress dedicated to the security issues of the Black Sea and Caucasus regions, where, in addition to the main topic, they also spoke about Syria. He said:
“... It remains a very curious impression. There were no politicians there, there were no active diplomats - there were several “former” people, including the former foreign minister, and scientists.
They have a very sour attitude towards the results to which Turkish policy has led over the past year, during the acute phase. The opinion of thinking people is about the same: Turkey overestimated its capabilities and underestimated the complexity of everything around. As a result, Erdogan fell into a position where actions lead to deterioration, and inaction leads to loss of reputation. Therefore, we have to act, despite the fact that the majority of the population, according to polls, does not at all support the idea of a war with Syria, this does not seem expedient to anyone. ”
They have a very sour attitude towards the results to which Turkish policy has led over the past year, during the acute phase. The opinion of thinking people is about the same: Turkey overestimated its capabilities and underestimated the complexity of everything around. As a result, Erdogan fell into a position where actions lead to deterioration, and inaction leads to loss of reputation. Therefore, we have to act, despite the fact that the majority of the population, according to polls, does not at all support the idea of a war with Syria, this does not seem expedient to anyone. ”
The guests of the meeting believe that Erdogan needs to get out of such an uncomfortable and ambivalent position, tempering his appetites and ambitions:
“... the more so because the idea that the Turkish leadership had two years ago, when the Arab Spring began, that Turkey could become a flagship, setting an example of how to combine democracy, moderate Islam and modern development, did not work. It has already become absolutely clear that these countries are taking a different path - not because Turkey is bad or good, but because they have a completely different background ... "
Has got from Lukyanov on nuts and to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mr. Davutoglu:
“... But the most important thing is the credo proclaimed by Davutoglu several years ago, when Turkey turned to a new course, which many outside called neo-Ottomanism. This is a departure from a purely pro-Western orientation towards an attempt to restore influence along the entire perimeter of the borders, throughout the territory of the former Ottoman Empire.
This credo was: “Zero problems with neighbors.” That is, they say, we will pursue such a policy that we will have good relations with all our neighbors, and this is how Turkey will rise to the regional leader. Now it sounds like a joke, because during this period there was not a single neighbor with whom Turkey would have no serious problems ... "
This credo was: “Zero problems with neighbors.” That is, they say, we will pursue such a policy that we will have good relations with all our neighbors, and this is how Turkey will rise to the regional leader. Now it sounds like a joke, because during this period there was not a single neighbor with whom Turkey would have no serious problems ... "
Against the background of a nearly weekly increase in tensions of Turkey’s relations, the economy of which the rulers of the AKP were so proud most recently may suffer.
Davutoglu in January of this year announced that in five years Turkish-Russian trade will reach 100 billions of dollars a year. In July, the same figures were voiced by V. Putin. The turnover of Turkey with Russia, by the way, is now almost 2,5 times more than the volume of trade in Turkey and the United States.
Russia is building nuclear power plants in Turkey. The cost of the four-reactor project - 20 billion. $. A nuclear power plant will cover 10% of Turkey’s demand for electricity, and Russia Calculates on profits of $ 4 billion per year.
Last week, Russian Gazprom satisfies Turkey's maximum demand for gas supplies. Additional gas was needed after the explosion on the night of October 19 on the East Anatolian gas pipeline, after which supplies from Iran stopped. The Turkish company Botas has requested an increase in the volume of Russian natural gas supplies to the maximum daily value - 48 million cubic meters. m, and Gazprom Export added the necessary daily allowances of 16 million cubic meters. m of gas. Russia ranks first among gas exporters to Turkey, followed by Iran and Azerbaijan. It is assumed that if the repair of the pipeline is delayed, then Russia will increase Turkey's gas supplies to 3-5%.
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey Taner Yildiz on behalf of his country expressed appreciation Russia and Azerbaijan for responding promptly to Turkey’s request for increased supplies.
This summer Turkey is already missed 10% Russian tourists. If she gets involved in a war, her tourism economy will cease to exist altogether.
It is not surprising that the Turkish people do not like the policy of Mr. Erdogan. In addition to the internal devastation that his policy is fraught with, Turkey is about to fall into external isolation. Either Ankara alone will have to clear up what is now unwilling to share with her gentlemen who accept the principle of "divide and rule", or Ankara may still have time to abandon Erdogan's ambitious claims to regional hegemony, even if he has lost his political face. However, it seems that this face is already lost before the people - and we must speak about its emergency recovery.
As for the regional hegemony of Turkey, this idea is disliked not only by all its neighbors, but also by the USA, which only see themselves as hegemones.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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