Operational situation in the special operation zone: Opinion of the American Institute for the Study of War

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Operational situation in the special operation zone: Opinion of the American Institute for the Study of War

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) regularly publishes policy briefs on key developments in defense and international politics. Naturally, the first place on the website of the organization is given to the situation in Ukraine. It is curious that in their conclusions, American experts do not hide the fact that they draw initial data from Russian publics. At the same time making their own, clearly propaganda conclusions. Attention is drawn to some confusion and inconsistency in the forecasts and conclusions of foreign military analysts.

Here is what overseas experts write about the situation in the Ukrainian special operation zone as of today.



Moscow may delay the announcement of the annexation of the liberated territories to Russia in order to better prepare the administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for the announcement of the annexation.

Comment. September 30 is already tomorrow, then what does the phrase “may postpone” mean? Apparently, American experts inattentively study the publications and statements of competent persons in the Russian media. Otherwise, they would have noticed that the head of the LPR office in Moscow, Rodion Miroshnik, said that the agreement on the entry of the Luhansk Republic into the Russian Federation would be signed within a week, adding that "there is no point in being in an extreme hurry." The situation is the same with the other three regions.

Several Russian bloggers and prominent war correspondents have said that Ukrainian forces have advanced west, north and northeast of Liman and are working to complete the encirclement of Russian forces in Liman and along the northern bank of the Seversky Donets River in the area.

Yes, the situation in this area is very difficult, but as long as ours hold out, the enemy achieves some success at the cost of huge losses. Military expert Yuri Podolyaka believes that the courage of the defenders of Krasny Liman suggests that the first mobilized reserves will be sent here in order to prevent the Balakleysko-Izyum retreat from repeating. But when this will happen is the big question. The head of the Center for Political and Strategic Analysis, Xavier Moreau, believes that the Ukrainian side will suffer a swift defeat in this region as soon as the green light subsides.

And here is perhaps the most interesting commentary on the “successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” from American analysts:

Ukrainian troops continue positional battles in unidentified places in order to strengthen and improve their positions in the Kherson direction.

Where are these "unidentified places", do they exist at all, and what does "strengthen and improve" mean? According to the intelligence of the Russian Armed Forces, on the evening of September 27, immediately after the end of the referendums, Ukrainian troops left their prepared positions in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Sukhoi Stavok and in a number of other areas on the southern sector of the front. There are no explanations for such maneuvers.

And finally, from far-sighted American analysts, without comment:

Russian troops continue assault operations to liberate the territories of the DPR.



The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War was founded in 2007 and is funded by grants and donations from major US defense industries. American sponsors would do well to check how and what their money is spent on. Given that the conclusions of ISW experts are based on the publications of many world news agencies such as the BBC. Now it is clear how the Western layman learns "the whole truth" about what is happening in Ukraine.
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54 comments
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  1. +6
    29 September 2022 10: 02
    There are a lot of opinions in every American institute
    The correct opinion will be given to those who need it. The Parliament and the Senate will be given the opinion that the leading party orders. And the world community and the domestic market - what the government will order. The truth, the truth and nothing but the truth!
    1. +4
      29 September 2022 10: 09
      Quote from Fizik13
      There are a lot of opinions in every American institute

      As a rule, they have one opinion on Russia
      1. +5
        29 September 2022 10: 33
        Quote: Terenin
        As a rule, they have one opinion on Russia

        The more you shit on Russia, the better the "institute", the more grants.
      2. +2
        29 September 2022 10: 59
        Don't underestimate the enemy. Dangerous
    2. +2
      29 September 2022 10: 11
      . It is curious that in their conclusions, American experts do not hide the fact that they draw initial data from Russian publics.


      And what would they do without Russian publics? I read the public, drew my conclusions, voiced them and supposedly an expert. They also pay money for it. Can everyone who writes posts on this site also be considered experts? what
    3. +1
      29 September 2022 10: 58
      Basically agree. Only the Senate is part of the American Parliament, Congress, its upper house. Our counterpart is the Federation Council.
  2. +11
    29 September 2022 10: 02
    - So can I!
    - Why play something?
    - "Murka! ...
  3. +7
    29 September 2022 10: 04
    Attention is drawn to some confusion and inconsistency in the forecasts and conclusions of foreign military analysts.

    Not otherwise than after studying our comments on VO laughing
  4. 0
    29 September 2022 10: 04
    This institution is in decline. Their analysis is a digest of Ukrainian and our TG channels, and even with a delay of at least a few days.
  5. +2
    29 September 2022 10: 06
    although 30 September remains the most likely date for an announcement to join.

    While the upper chamber, while the lower ... According to my calculations, the Decree will be signed on October 4 winked
    1. -2
      29 September 2022 11: 08
      And in my opinion - October 8~13)
      Could you clarify on what grounds
      Did you name this date?
      1. +1
        29 September 2022 13: 20
        Quote from cpls22
        And in my opinion - October 8~13)
        Could you clarify on what grounds
        Did you name this date?

        Slowly and without delay, taking into account the observance of all formal procedures for document management, review, approval and normal work of Feldsvyaz.
    2. 0
      29 September 2022 11: 13
      They can do it in 1 day. In addition, folk festivals and a concert on Red Square were announced.
      So far, there is only one reason for festivities.
      1. +1
        29 September 2022 13: 24
        Quote: Kesha1980
        They can do it in 1 day. In addition, folk festivals and a concert on Red Square were announced.
        So far, there is only one reason for festivities.

        These are measures to support Russia's expression of the will of the affiliated entities
        1. +1
          29 September 2022 13: 42
          Tomorrow at 15:00 - the signing of an agreement on the entry of new territories into Russia. They ratify at the pace and that's it - festivities.
          1. +1
            29 September 2022 17: 17
            Quote: Kesha1980
            Tomorrow at 15:00 - the signing of an agreement on the entry of new territories into Russia. They ratify at the pace and that's it - festivities.

            Of course, but the final document is the Decree of the President
  6. +4
    29 September 2022 10: 08
    They don’t lie about the Liman campaign .... and strengthening our grouping at the expense of the mobilized is nonsense .... By the time they are sent there, nothing will remain of our defending troops ..... Turn Liman into Stalingrad ? From Belgorod to Vladivostok, not a single combat-ready unit with contract soldiers remains? For two weeks of fighting, they could not saturate with a sufficient number of weapons, both along the front line and along the rear - reserves ...? Campaign Liman really turns red ... from the blood of our guys .... The military tribunal will be over the guilty military commanders or so, quietly for a "deserved" rest ...
    1. +3
      29 September 2022 10: 21
      Quote from uprun
      They don’t lie about the Liman campaign .... and strengthening our grouping at the expense of the mobilized is nonsense .... By the time they are sent there, nothing will remain of our defending troops ..... Turn Liman into Stalingrad ? From Belgorod to Vladivostok, not a single combat-ready unit with contract soldiers remains? For two weeks of fighting, they could not saturate with a sufficient number of weapons, both along the front line and along the rear - reserves ...? Campaign Liman really turns red ... from the blood of our guys .... The military tribunal will be over the guilty military commanders or so, quietly for a "deserved" rest ...

      Everything they write about Liman is taken from our own military correspondents. I will not repeat myself, I have already given a list of reserves transferred to Liman according to the same military correspondents. And do not forget that the Oskol Front must also be held.
      1. -1
        29 September 2022 11: 12
        I wonder what is the main problem there? Still lack of drugs?. Are there no reserves? Played out in a compact army. I think that it was not without the advice of "effective managers"
        1. -1
          29 September 2022 11: 20
          Quote: IvanIvanov
          I wonder what is the main problem there? Still lack of drugs?. Are there no reserves? Played out in a compact army. I think that it was not without the advice of "effective managers"

          Yes, lack of l / s. It is impossible to expose other directions, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated a large group.
          1. 0
            29 September 2022 11: 50
            Here Vladlen Tatarsky writes:
            They called in the morning. A friend was wounded near Drobyshevo.
            Bleeding, our troops, thinned in that area, hold back the superior forces of rabid pigs, making it possible to mobilize.


            He has the same:
            Now they write a lot about the combat training of the mobilized.
            I repeat my question again: who will deal with it? The same people who prepared the army for a special operation?
            The beginning of the assault on Mariupol. The enemy still has Grads and artillery, but the army behaves very carelessly, for which it receives harsh instructions from one wise man.
            Beware, a lot of swearing! More precisely one mat! 18+


            In this regard, it is not clear what is the problem in disseminating the experience of the same Wagner or successful units of the LDNR?
          2. -2
            29 September 2022 19: 03
            Well, my God, well, this is the ABC of strategy - to let the enemy get bogged down well. Well, are you watching art films - "Battalions ask for fire" or "Red Square". With your permission, I won’t involve Sun Eevs Dzy here, we’ll figure it out without him.
            And to lament that the guys are dying. ......... Well, then the soldiers. They're supposed to. Especially when "The whole world is in ruins" is at stake.
        2. +3
          29 September 2022 11: 51
          the army was designed for a small local conflict and not for a war with a millionth group
          1. The comment was deleted.
    2. 0
      29 September 2022 10: 35
      Quote from uprun
      They don’t lie about Lyman campaign ..

      In the Limansky direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are expanding the bridgehead near Redkodub, occupying the villages of Katerynivka and Peski-Radkovsky. Ukrainian formations attacked the village of Kolodezi from three sides: the road from Svatovo passes next to it, which is now the only way to supply the Russian group in Liman. -https://voenchronika.ru/
      1. 0
        29 September 2022 12: 25
        Against the background of what is happening, the phrase Comrade looks like an absolute surprise. Putin: "We haven't started anything yet"
  7. +3
    29 September 2022 10: 13
    Moscow may delay the announcement of the annexation of the liberated territories to Russia

    So far, the "allies" of the United States and Zelensky have begun to save (in their pants) ...
    On October 30, the GDP should turn to the FS - let's see what it puts aside (puts) on the opinion of the American Institute for the Study of War ...
    Already in the Russian media, a proposal was made to disable the transatlantic cable and draw a “tryndets” for the Polish Baltic Pipe ... So they said: “Why not?”
    1. +11
      29 September 2022 10: 18
      They say a lot of things, but in order to win, it is highly desirable, in addition to numerous statements, to do something.
      1. +1
        29 September 2022 10: 41
        Completely agree with you. But for deeds, political will is needed, and not a promise of an early start of some terribly terrible actions and "frightening" waving a finger
      2. 0
        29 September 2022 11: 45
        Quote: Lex_is
        Saying a lot of things

        We also say a lot of things, but this has nothing to do with the case at all.
        You correctly noted that real deeds are important for victory. You won't be fed up with just talking... stop Why are Western politicians and the media so filled with different voices? Why is the RF Armed Forces still using campaign shells?
        Today, for example, one man in the discussion suggested not to raise a fuss, because we have the appropriate special forces capable of really collecting evidence from the places of explosion. It is important not to advertise the further actions of the Russian leadership on retaliatory measures, WHICH MUST BE APPLIED BY ALL!!!
        hi
        1. 0
          29 September 2022 12: 03
          It is important not to advertise the further actions of the Russian leadership

          It is important that these measures take place at all, and not as usual.
          It is highly desirable that they be timely and adequate to the situation, and not 6-7 months late.

          Why is the RF Armed Forces still using campaign shells?
          MO, bl... Wonderful, said people living in their own wonderful world with little connection with the surrounding reality.
    2. -1
      29 September 2022 10: 48
      Quote: yuriy55
      On October 30, GDP should apply to the FS

      yes, there will be a statement, but in the news they write that the Saudis muddied some kind of negotiations with ours, supposedly a complete exchange of all for all (1000 to 7000) + something strange with the military registration and enlistment offices, today the employee’s name was supposed to appear, but he was told that, can wait until October 4 ..... they are stirring up something .....
      1. 0
        29 September 2022 18: 38
        Quote: Tiksi-3
        today the name of the employee was supposed to appear, but

        I had the same. Today he appeared himself, since the summons did not come, they also unfolded it and said, they are recruiting those who are under 35, although in the first days they took everyone
        1. 0
          1 October 2022 17: 34
          Quote: suhorukofal
          Today he appeared himself, since the summons did not come, they just unfolded it and said, they are recruiting those who are under 35,

          you didn’t understand, they handed him a summons and it says to appear on September 29 - he comes, and they tell him - hang up, arrive on October 4
          1. 0
            1 October 2022 18: 02
            Yes, I understand everything. That so far only the beginning of the work of mobilization, or they are overwhelmed with cases and simply do not have time to work out everything. Although I hope that, indeed, the turnover will increase. After all, after all, to this date there is such an event as the entry of new regions into the Russian Federation, they are just now being attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is hope that our leadership will indeed do something to turn the tide of hostilities.
  8. -4
    29 September 2022 10: 17
    ISW bases its findings on the analysis and comparison of satellite imagery from two private companies that own reconnaissance satellites.
  9. +2
    29 September 2022 10: 28
    If you post reports from them, then post the original. Otherwise, it turns out like Russian military correspondents. A summary is taken from them, something is thrown out, something changes and the output is a completely different meaning
  10. -4
    29 September 2022 10: 34
    Quote from uprun
    They don’t lie about the Liman campaign .... and strengthening our grouping at the expense of the mobilized is nonsense .... By the time they are sent there, nothing will remain of our defending troops ..... Turn Liman into Stalingrad ? From Belgorod to Vladivostok, not a single combat-ready unit with contract soldiers remains? For two weeks of fighting, they could not saturate with a sufficient number of weapons, both along the front line and along the rear - reserves ...? Campaign Liman really turns red ... from the blood of our guys .... The military tribunal will be over the guilty military commanders or so, quietly for a "deserved" rest ...

    Ukrainian TG channel writes:,
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue the counteroffensive on the eastern front, and the Russian army is not yet able to stop the advance of the Ukrainian troops. Everything looks strange, because the river plays on the side of the Russian troops, and the narrowness of the front resembles a neck, but so far we are watching how the Ukrainian General Staff is outplaying staff officers from Moscow.
    1. 0
      29 September 2022 11: 19
      Well, if the advantage in drugs is serious, then the crossings can be visited in several places.
  11. -5
    29 September 2022 10: 35
    Despite the fact that the publications of many world news agencies, in particular, the BBC, rely on the conclusions of ISW experts. Now it is clear how the Western layman learns "the whole truth" about what is happening in Ukraine.



    Well! Good experts!


  12. +1
    29 September 2022 10: 51
    I remember Strelkov's carefully ridiculed forecasts and realize with surprise that he was almost always right. Maybe it's time to offer him the place of Shoigu, who has completely failed as Minister of Defense?
    1. 0
      29 September 2022 11: 06
      Yes, the mystery is why they did not hold mobilization fees already in March. The reserve would be ready. The authorities are always one step behind the events, which is sad to say the least.
    2. +6
      29 September 2022 11: 07
      Quote: vet
      I remember Strelkov's carefully ridiculed forecasts and realize with surprise that he was almost always right. Maybe it's time to offer him the place of Shoigu, who has completely failed as Minister of Defense?

      And what did Girkin win? Successfully dumped from Slavyansk ... yes, Donetsk was not allowed to pass him as he wanted ... that's all his achievements. Minusor try to refute.
      1. +4
        29 September 2022 12: 03
        And what did Girkin win?

        Well, to tell the truth, as a blogger and still an expert on what is happening with information "from the ground", he illuminates and understands the situation very adequately. It is quite possible to listen to it.

        Maybe it's time to offer him the place of Shoigu, who has completely failed as Minister of Defense?

        This is God forbid! Firstly, absolutely not his level, and secondly, it is absolutely correctly written about
        He successfully dumped from Slavyansk ... yes, Donetsk was not allowed to pass him as he wanted ...

        But in general, it would probably be possible to mobilize him and send him to the database zone, he himself spoke about this. Well, or let him continue to volunteer and blogging, he is also useful there.
        1. 0
          30 September 2022 05: 02
          Quote: alexmach
          This is God forbid! Firstly, absolutely not his level, and secondly, it is absolutely correctly written about
          He successfully dumped from Slavyansk ... yes, Donetsk was not allowed to pass him as he wanted ...
  13. -2
    29 September 2022 11: 04
    Rodion Miroshnik said that the agreement on the entry of the Luhansk Republic into the Russian Federation would be signed within a week, adding that "there is no point in rushing too much"
    The State Duma and the Federation Council declare that the official consideration of the adoption is scheduled for October 3-4.


    The situation on the Kharkov front requires urgent measures.
    The main question - will the format of the operation be changed in connection with the accession? And if so, why wait?

    1. -1
      29 September 2022 12: 05
      Perhaps there will be an attempt at negotiations in the light of past referendums and decisions will be made based on their results.
      Otherwise, there is no point in urgently holding referendums and then declaring “there is no point in being in an extreme hurry”
  14. 0
    29 September 2022 11: 42
    You have to be a very naive person to believe the statements of "experts" about the huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the offensive. There is no need to attribute everything to the fact that mobilization took place in Ukraine. The human resource in Ukraine is limited, the special operation is in its eighth month, the initiative is with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    Russia actually has an advantage in artillery and in the air, who is Ukraine attacking with huge losses? Stop lying to people about their losses.
    1. +2
      29 September 2022 14: 50
      Stop lying to people about their losses.

      In fact, it is not so much our media that talk about the losses of the VFU as foreign ones. They mean adequate, and not any propaganda. And their numbers are quite impressive.
  15. 0
    29 September 2022 11: 44
    Cho did not understand. It seems like a serious organization, but the information is taken from the public. Really more serious sources are not present?
  16. +4
    29 September 2022 11: 56
    The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War was founded in 2007 and is funded by grants and donations from major US defense industries.

    I read their reviews at the very beginning of the CBO, I must say that they are relatively sensible. Good generalization of information from open sources. Basically, they list facts that our sources are silent about. Yes, the estimates are somewhat biased. But the same VO lost to them in covering the conflict for the last half a year. Found someone to giggle with

    Military expert Yuri Podolyaka believes


    In my opinion, it is correct to write x-perd. Have you already stopped filling in about the "Kramatorsk-Slavic offensive operation"? And about we’re about to start advancing on Kharkov, have we almost begun? And about the fact that "in the Kupyanskaya gut we will now defeat everyone as in the Andreevsky bridgehead"? About the absolute correctness of the chosen tactics?
  17. +1
    29 September 2022 12: 28
    It is a pity that the author does not provide direct links to the original articles.
    Ukrainian troops continue positional battles in unidentified places

    I am more than sure that the adjective "unspecified" in the original is translated as "not subject to publicity."
    And finally, from far-sighted American analysts, without comment:

    Russian troops continue assault operations to liberate the territories of the DPR.

    Why "no comments"? What confuses the author in this phrase? We do not continue the assault operations? We don't continue them? Assault actions are not aimed at liberating the territory of the DPR? Or what?
    1. 0
      30 September 2022 11: 49
      It is a pity that the author does not provide direct links to the original articles.

      These links are never a secret.
      https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-28
      Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian actions in Kherson Oblast on September 28 but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions along the Southern Axis


      On the Ukrainian side, the official representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine generally adhere to the regime of silence regarding the actions in the Kherson Region on September 28, but claim that the Ukrainian troops continue positional battles in unspecified places in order to consolidate and improve positions in the southern directions.
  18. 0
    29 September 2022 14: 47
    ... Ukrainian troops left their prepared positions in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Sukhoi Stavok and in a number of other areas on the southern sector of the front. There are no explanations for such maneuvers.

    Well, why not?
    a) - they "felt" that they would soon be raked, so they gave a tear.
    b) - were transferred to another area of ​​​​the database in order to close the shortage in the personnel of some unwound part.
  19. 0
    29 September 2022 20: 10
    Quote: Terenin
    Attention is drawn to some confusion and inconsistency in the forecasts and conclusions of foreign military analysts.

    Not otherwise than after studying our comments on VO laughing

    In this regard, I propose to stir up something like this at VO so that their experts would be completely at a loss, up to relaxing the bladder in their pants good

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