"Caliber" after opening by American experts: is there any prospect
An interesting opinion came from the other side of the ocean. Our good friend Kyle Mizokami, whom we know from publications in many publications, gave out very interesting material. Interesting, but very controversial, and now I'm going to argue with all the zeal.
Mizokami believes that anti-Russian sanctions will completely undermine Russia's ability to create high-precision weapon and thereby compensate for the already used missiles and shells.
It is clear that today American experts have at their disposal many samples of Russian weapons from the territory of Ukraine, including the latest ones, to the greatest regret.
In the United States, there is an opinion that many types of weapons use frankly outdated electronics and even microcircuits and semiconductors produced by Western countries. From this, many experts conclude that the pressure of sanctions will significantly complicate the production of high-precision weapons in Russia, and even after the end of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine (regardless of the result with which they end), Russia will simply restore the pre-war combat capability in terms of stockpiles of high-precision weapons. can not.
Today, US military experts say that even Russia's most high-tech weapons are based on obsolete electronics and imported parts. Today, according to the United States, Russia is not able to produce enough semiconductors needed to create modern weapons systems. Accordingly, Russia will have to use older microchips, including commercial chips imported from the rest of the world.
Due to what Russia will be able to solve the issue with semiconductors and microcircuits - this is a very burning issue, which is of interest to opponents and is obliged to strain everyone in Russia.
Experts from a very specific resource, Conflict Armament Research (CAR), who study and track weapons, have examined the details of several Russian systems.
At the disposal of the experts were ship-based cruise missiles 3M14 "Caliber", shot down in the Khmelnitsky and Ternopil regions, guided missiles 9M544 from the MLRS "Tornado-S" (were captured in Balakliya), aviation X-59 and X-101 missiles.
All these samples came into the possession of American experts, having been handed over to the Ukrainian military. And the Ukrainians received samples as a result of the successful work of air defense, due to technical problems, or trivially trophyed.
CAR specialists, having studied the electronics of the samples that came to them, were surprised by the number of imported electronic components, ranging from elementary semiconductors to SN-99 satellite navigation receivers.
The Americans came to the conclusion that very many blocks in cruise missiles were produced using non-Russian components and were even able to establish the dates of their production. From 2012 to 2020.
Separately, the blocks of the downed Ka-52 helicopter were investigated. There was also a fair amount of imported parts. Experts, however, did not specify from which manufacturing country the components come from.
CAR on its website says that the company's specialists have identified a total of 144 non-Russian manufacturers of more than 650 unique parts / components from Russian weapons systems used in the war in Ukraine.
In addition to missiles, guided missiles and a helicopter, foreign electronics were found in all captured Orlan-3 and Orlan-10 UAVs, military radio stations, and (especially valuable) electronic warfare equipment and systems. The "Khibiny" and "Zoos" that came to the Ukrainian military also gave a lot of information for consideration for American experts.
Based on what they saw, the US concluded that Russia's high-tech manufacturing sector is relatively underdeveloped compared to other large countries, which means that Russia is forced to import semiconductors and other electronics. Importing chips is not out of the ordinary, but it leaves the Russian military-industrial complex at the mercy of international sanctions aimed precisely at depriving Russia of advanced military technology.
For CAR, the question still remains how European and American chips (and we are talking about such supplies) ended up in Russia. Yes, there is no question of a legitimate sale, most likely, we can say that the sale took place through a number of fictitious shell companies that were organized specifically for the purchase of military equipment or dual-use items abroad.
In this regard, the question can be raised: to what extent can international sanctions undermine Russia's ability to produce new weapons?
Historically, Russia has been very successful in getting its hands on sanctioned equipment. In general, it is worth recognizing that the USSR spent almost the entire time of its existence under sanctions.
And in the eighties, unexpectedly for the same Americans, Soviet submarines suddenly became much quieter. This made it much easier for them to evade detection. The command of the US Navy categorically did not like this and the CIA specialists went into action.
Representatives of this respected at that time structure analyzed this breakthrough in Soviet submarine shipbuilding and found a direct dependence on the sale of CNC machines, coupled with metal processing technologies from the Japanese company Toshiba and the Norwegian Kongsberg. These CNC machines were used to make advanced submarine propellers that reduced the noise the submarine made while underway.
It is clear that neither the Japanese nor the Norwegians could even imagine at that time that their machines were purchased for work in the Soviet Union.
This suggests that in our time everything will be exactly the same.
The only thing that is somewhat surprising in an unpleasant way is the information that the Americans publish openly.
After all, if we take the same Kh-101 strategic cruise missile, which has been in service since 2013. All sources indicate that the missile has been developed since the nineties of the last century and "... has exclusively Russian components, unlike previous generations of these missiles, which had components from the countries of the former USSR."
The Americans testify that this is not the case.
There are two options here. If American experts are lying, then it cannot be said that everything is in order. Of course, the fact that such a weapon fell into the hands of the enemy completely disavows him. In the shortest possible time, the missile will be studied and conclusions will be drawn on how best to counteract it.
If they lied to us (and I think they lied, “import substitution” fairy tales are our reality), then everything is even worse. Because the X-101 will now still have to develop a replacement, a strategic weapon that has been thoroughly studied by the enemy is not a weapon.
But then the question arises: what will the “brains” of the rocket be stuffed with if manufacturers have a limited set of components at their disposal that can somehow be obtained from abroad?
The Americans announced the presence of an imported satellite receiver. Actually, here is the answer to the question of how to neutralize the X-101.
It is difficult to put the X-101 problem on a par with the X-59 problem next to it. The missile has been in service since 1980, and began to be developed in the seventies of the last century. It is no wonder that the electronic part ... is not up to par.
It is clear that over the past time, the X-59 has been repeatedly upgraded. At the disposal of the CAR was the X-59M "Gadfly", equipped with a guidance system "Tekon-1A" with a radio altimeter and TGSN "Tubus-2A" and NAP systems GLONASS / GPS. The appearance in the electronic equipment of the same navigation unit as on other missiles suggests that this is a proven equipment that gives the expected results.
With 3M14 "Caliber" is still more sad. The fact that the rocket aroused interest is understandable. As well as the relative silence of the Americans about it is understandable. In addition to the fact that 3M14 generally got to American specialists, there is no more information, but in itself this is a strong blow to Russia's defense capability. After all, it is one thing to calculate the capabilities of the enemy based on individual data and theoretical calculations, and quite another thing when you have a real sample in your hands.
How in stories with Stinger.
Knowing the architecture of the electronic component of missiles and shells, it will not be difficult for the Americans to develop both countermeasures and calculate further development opportunities.
But we will return to the sanctions.
For half a year, Russia used a very impressive number of cruise missiles and rockets for the Tornado system, missiles for air defense systems. This amount will have to be replaced. Moreover, this requires technologies that Russia may not have. Everything that fell into the hands of their CAR specialists also fell into the hands of the Pentagon. This armament remained in yesterday. The only question is what will happen tomorrow.
“This is late 1990s or mid-2000s technology at best,” said Arsenio Menendez, a NASA contractor who reverse-engineers guided weapon components as a hobby, after examining photographs of Russian military electronics taken by researchers.
In any case, Russia will have to make a breakthrough in the military technologies of the future, since all “modern” developments are a thing of the past. The question is how quickly Russia will be able to get at its disposal technologies that will provide it with the proper level of security.
And to what extent the possibilities for the production of one's own and the extraction of foreign components of electronic systems will satisfy the demand for these components.
While the "Caliber", which was so trumped up in Russia, lies on a table in a research center in the United States, there is still time. But we need to start taking steps forward today.
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