Military Review

Iranian observer predicts Russia's success in special operation in Ukraine by spring 2023

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Iranian observer predicts Russia's success in special operation in Ukraine by spring 2023

The latest events around Ukraine indicate that Russia is changing its strategy of action in the Donbass and adjacent territories. This conclusion is made by the author of the Iranian edition of Javan Seyid Nimatulla Abdrakhim-zadeh.


At present, more than seven months have passed since the start of the special military operation of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine and the Donbass. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv direction has managed to achieve some tactical successes that have turned the heads of both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western patrons. But joy over a successful counter-offensive is premature, the Iranian author believes.

The fact is that the situation in Ukraine and the Donbass, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian and, more generally, the Russian-Western conflict, depend not so much on purely military events, but on two most important factors - time and money. The Iranian author wonders why the Russian Armed Forces did not properly prepare for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region?

It is unlikely that the command of the RF Armed Forces was so naive that they did not anticipate the start of a Ukrainian counteroffensive or did not understand that Kyiv could carry out diversionary maneuvers in the Kherson region. So the reason is different.

Seyid Nimatulla Abdrakhimzade draws attention to the colossal US financial flows to Ukraine. This money is sent by Washington to Kyiv with only one purpose - to continue the confrontation and deliver a military strike on Russian positions. To have an idea of ​​the scale of assistance, it is enough to know that Washington has financed Ukraine for $70 billion. That's three times what the US spent in the first year of the war in Afghanistan more than twenty years ago. That is, the United States is investing huge amounts of money in helping Ukraine, naturally expecting that Kyiv will continue to fight with Russia.

As for the actual hostilities, now for Russia, the Iranian analyst believes, it is more important to focus on the Odessa direction, and not on the Kharkov region. It is through Odessa that a significant part of the current maritime communication between Ukraine and the West is carried out. Taking control of Odessa would deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and deal a terrible blow to Ukrainian logistics.

The second important point is the proximity of winter. This is precisely the factor of time, which the Iranian author writes about. The closer the winter, the closer the serious problems with energy resources in European countries. The West will have to reconsider its policy on aid to Ukraine if European governments do not want to be swept away by popular outrage. Winter has always been an important ally of Russia.

It is possible that "General Frost" will not leave Russia this time either.

Drawing a conclusion, the Iranian author believes that Russia, firstly, can regroup forces from the northeastern part of Ukraine in its southwest, aiming at Odessa, and secondly, limit Europe in energy supplies, which will force European countries to already this winter to change their policy. By the early spring of 2023, the Kremlin could make impressive strides in Ukraine.
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  1. Egoza
    Egoza 26 September 2022 09: 27
    +11
    now, according to the Iranian analyst, it is more important for Russia to focus on the Odessa direction, and not on the Kharkov region.

    Perhaps the analyst is right. In the end, during the Second World War, Kharkov was surrendered twice, and then finally taken.
    1. 41 REGION
      41 REGION 26 September 2022 09: 34
      +16
      Quote: Egoza
      Perhaps the analyst is right

      You should always rely on yourself, and not on Frost
      1. isv000
        isv000 26 September 2022 17: 34
        +1
        Quote: 41 REGION
        Quote: Egoza
        Perhaps the analyst is right

        You should always rely on yourself, and not on Frost

        What is what is, we always used the frost skillfully, but this time, on the other side - the Slavs, and this factor works for everyone. It's already set on edge, but I'll say - when leaving, turn off the light, drain the water! When the army then jumps, being dressed out of season, especially the "other legion", then it will be possible to say: Grandfather Frost! Come!
    2. iouris
      iouris 26 September 2022 09: 43
      0
      Quote: Egoza
      Perhaps the analyst is right.

      "It's elementary, Watson!" Where will the Kharkiv region go from this submarine?
      And it would be nice to plant a government in Kharkov ... Well, I couldn’t! Right now, the godfather will tell you why.
      1. Smart ass_
        Smart ass_ 26 September 2022 10: 15
        +2
        And so that this government declared itself the legitimate government of Ukraine, announced the transfer of the capital back to Kharkov, and the task of liquidating the Kyiv junta
    3. Hitriy Zhuk
      Hitriy Zhuk 26 September 2022 10: 03
      +2
      I think he is right.
      Because as long as they are not cut off from the sea, they can deliver something to them, and they can send something floating, well, a "fireship" or something like that. Here are some remotely controlled ones that have already been caught, but they could be much larger.
      Plus, they will beg for a decommissioned submarine and, stuffed with explosives, swim one way.

      Again, Transnistria is nearby.
      1. shikin
        shikin 26 September 2022 13: 01
        +2
        Well, yes. You can't transport as much across a thousand-kilometer land border with Western countries as through one seaport :)
        Do not have illusions.
        1. ratoborets
          ratoborets 27 September 2022 00: 43
          0
          First, the fewer opportunities for the transfer of foreign equipment, the better.
          Secondly, at least grain and many other goods. Only the grain of last year's harvest, thanks to agreements with the Kremlin, will be exported for 10 billion dollars. And the current harvest is another 20 billion dollars. % of the income will go to the budget of the Kyiv regime: to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the purchase of weapons, fuel, kickbacks to loved ones, etc.
  2. Pulkovo1942
    Pulkovo1942 26 September 2022 09: 29
    -2
    It is unlikely that the command of the RF Armed Forces was so naive that they did not anticipate the start of a Ukrainian counteroffensive or did not understand that Kyiv could carry out diversionary maneuvers in the Kherson region.

    The belly button can be torn.
  3. HAM
    HAM 26 September 2022 09: 35
    +5
    Any predictions are a thankless practice, as experience shows, any predictions of the actions of the Supreme are a useless and thankless task ...... there will be a surprise @ ..... we need the result immediately, but he plans "in the long run" ...
  4. art having
    art having 26 September 2022 09: 41
    +2
    Who is against it? To his words yes to God in the ears ....
  5. ramzay21
    ramzay21 26 September 2022 09: 43
    +4
    The Iranian author wonders why the Russian Armed Forces did not properly prepare for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region?

    Many Russians have the same question. For 15 years, a lot of money was spent, tales were told, shows and exhibitions were shown with weapons that had no analogues in the world.
    And as a result, there are no UAVs, the world leader in the 80s, which had seven hundred Tu-143 jet UAVs, today lagged behind Iran.
    First-aid kits are worse than those of the armies of African countries, there are no thermal imagers, all the equipment is 30-50 years old from the USSR. Hence another question. Where did the money go and who will answer for it?
    1. Frost
      Frost 26 September 2022 09: 57
      -3
      Quote: ramzay21
      First-aid kits are worse than those of the armies of African countries, there are no thermal imagers, all the equipment is 30-50 years old from the USSR. Hence another question. Where did the money go and who will answer for it?

      Temple, patriot park, tank biathlon, parades, youth army, all this PR required money. Under Serdyukov, there was no such mess. It was the best defense minister.
      1. ramzay21
        ramzay21 26 September 2022 10: 24
        +2
        Perhaps the best Minister of Defense was Zhukov. And these. Serdyukov was obsessed with optimizations and theft, Shoigu was obsessed with window dressing and theft.
        And we need an honest minister of defense who understands what a modern army is, what a modern army should be like and who is able to build it.
        1. Frost
          Frost 26 September 2022 11: 24
          +2
          Quote: ramzay21
          Perhaps the best Minister of Defense was

          This comrade from Germany exported "in significant quantities furniture, works of art and other trophy property for personal use."
          1. ramzay21
            ramzay21 26 September 2022 20: 08
            0
            And Serdyukov sold the land of the Moscow Region, including managing to sell plots prohibited for sale in specially protected areas.
            In addition, Zhukov, unlike Serdyukov, knew exactly what a modern army should look like.
        2. kuztoday
          kuztoday 27 September 2022 00: 25
          0
          And we need an honest Minister of Defense


          I know who it is, it's Strelkov... feel
      2. Uprun
        Uprun 26 September 2022 11: 22
        +2
        Well, yes ...., Only in the city of Chelyabinsk, under Serdyukov, 3 military schools were closed ..., oops. - tank, automobile and navigators of the VKS, and yes ....., everything is fine .... And who is missing in the army today ......, I wang, that they are not submariners ....
    2. decimalegio
      decimalegio 26 September 2022 12: 40
      0
      Based on the experience of corruption in my country, I can give advice: it is better not to ask questions if we are not satisfied with the answers. wink
      1. Frank Muller
        Frank Muller 26 September 2022 19: 06
        -1
        I would also add: if they still do not give any official answers.
        1. The comment was deleted.
    3. guest
      guest 27 September 2022 00: 09
      +1
      Quote: ramzay21
      Where did the money go and who will answer for it?

      Money "partners" sent to freeze.
      1. kuztoday
        kuztoday 27 September 2022 00: 27
        0
        Because it is perishable .. you need to keep it in the cold. laughing
  6. Uprun
    Uprun 26 September 2022 09: 43
    0
    Well, here's another "advisor", now from behind a hillock ....., the captain is obvious .... For Nikolaev and Odessa, so many "spears have been broken" .....
    1. kuztoday
      kuztoday 27 September 2022 00: 28
      0
      But you can’t stop Donetsk first so that they bombed, and then take Odessa
      1. guest
        guest 27 September 2022 00: 34
        0
        First of all, we can take Berlin, Paris or Washington, but we can liberate Odessa. Secondly, the liberation of Odessa will help at least reduce the supply of weapons to the Nazis and, as a result, they will no longer be able to bomb Donetsk with such intensity.
  7. Prometey
    Prometey 26 September 2022 09: 44
    +3
    On the one hand, the occupation of Odessa will keep the central regions of Ukraine under attack. But on the other hand, there is a huge stretch of communications.
    It is necessary to clean the entire Left Bank. There are no options here.
  8. Crete 25
    Crete 25 26 September 2022 09: 53
    +1
    So many analysts, experts, predictors immediately appeared. And everyone knows everything.
    1. Aaron Zawi
      Aaron Zawi 26 September 2022 10: 03
      -1
      Quote from Kreta25
      So many analysts, experts, predictors immediately appeared. And everyone knows everything.

      Well, yes. And how in winter and spring did he not tell you how to attack a entrenched enemy through the mud and along several routes?
      1. solar
        solar 26 September 2022 11: 31
        0
        He did not know about the spring mud. There is no such problem in Iran, as far as I understand.
        1. Aaron Zawi
          Aaron Zawi 26 September 2022 11: 39
          -2
          Quote from solar
          He did not know about the spring mud. There is no such problem in Iran, as far as I understand.

          Well, the rainy season is present in BV. And there is enough dirt.
  9. Two
    Two 26 September 2022 10: 09
    +1
    hi A simple opinion of a simple Persian observer. There is a place to be ... bully
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 26 September 2022 10: 12
    +1
    Iranian observer predicts Russia's success in special operation in Ukraine by spring 2023
    . Forecasts, forecasts .... there is either faith, or ... what else can be ???
  11. Archivist Vasya
    Archivist Vasya 26 September 2022 10: 39
    +3
    Things will get better with Iranian drones, that's for sure! I need to take more))
    1. Frank Muller
      Frank Muller 26 September 2022 19: 15
      +1
      They will go, and how they will go! If only they sell it again: as if in Persia a new, this time anti-Islamic, revolution does not smell. Americans are masters at such things.
      1. guest
        guest 27 September 2022 00: 13
        0
        Quote: Frank Muller
        Americans are masters at such things.

        Yes, they are now trying to arrange another color revolution in Iran.
  12. Nuka
    Nuka 26 September 2022 11: 22
    +1
    Quote: Egoza

    Perhaps the analyst is right.


    And maybe not right...
    Of course, I would like to believe that he is right, but the events of the last three months allow us to assert that any forecast now is, to put it mildly, unreliable and doubtful.
    The situation, that's for sure, "if you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans."
  13. Frank Muller
    Frank Muller 26 September 2022 19: 26
    -1
    It's easier than easy to judge
    About a war in a foreign country,
    Even if it didn't happen
    To be in that war!