Military Review

The President of Serbia warned of the beginning of a global conflict at the end of the year. What is behind this prediction?

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The President of Serbia warned of the beginning of a global conflict at the end of the year. What is behind this prediction?

The world is entering another era of instability, which is accompanied by wars, political, economic and social crises. The feeling of growing anxiety and tension is growing, so some European politicians are starting to talk about the rolling down of the geopolitical situation and the likely start of a global conflict. In particular, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has stated several times in his public speeches over the past week that in the next two months we will all witness a global conflict. This forecast of the President of Serbia will be discussed in this article.


"We will witness a great world conflict"


“I suppose that from the phase of a special military operation we are approaching a major military conflict. The question is, where are the borders, and will we slide down after some time, and maybe in a month or two, into a big world conflict, which has not been since the Second World War”,

- said Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in an interview with RTS on September 20.

And already on September 22, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Vucic again confirmed this thesis.

“I don’t see anything good in the foreseeable future, nothing good happens in the world, if you ask me if the fighting will stop, the war will not stop and will not end soon. It will only get harder, and when I told you this 100 times, you called me “drama queen” and “crazy”, but in the end it turned out that all this was true. I am guided by the logic of iron determinism, I build facts, I am too serious a person to talk nonsense. The geopolitical world situation is going down and we will be witnessing a big, big world conflict.”

Obviously, Vucic is referring to the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine into a global military conflict between Russia and Europe and, probably, with the United States. There can be no other interpretation of his words. How real is this threat?

Can the military conflict in Ukraine escalate into a world war?


It is obvious that the special military operation in Ukraine has not gone according to plan for a long time (which provided for the quick surrender of Kyiv and the change of power in Ukraine), and, in fact, has grown into a full-fledged war. In parallel, there is a proxy war with the European Union and the United States, which provide military and financial support to Kyiv, without directly taking part in the military conflict.

The Russian army cannot take control of the whole of Ukraine, which is being pumped up with modern Western weapons, and it also fails to reach an agreement with Ukraine, due to the fact that Zelensky’s power is actually based on the bayonets of the United States and Britain, and he does not make independent decisions.

The Americans, who are far beyond the ocean, are generally indifferent to the problems of Europe, and even more so to the fact that the Ukrainian people are being turned into cannon fodder in pursuit of their global political goals. In their opinion, Russia should inflict a strategic defeat so that “the rest would be discouraged” from speaking out against the “world community” and its world order.

For this reason, Moscow decided to raise the stakes - to announce a partial mobilization (which was inevitable, given the acute shortage of personnel at the front), to hold referendums in the LPR, DPR and in the liberated territories of Ukraine, despite the fact that military operations are still ongoing in these territories. actions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that

“In case of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, to our people, we will use all available means of protection, and this is not a bluff”

- it was in the context of the possibility of using nuclear weapons – is also part of the political bargaining and raising the stakes on the part of Russia. According to what scenario can events develop in the future?

The first script – Russia annexes the territory of Novorossiya (i.e. LPR, DPR, Kherson and part of Zaporozhye region), after which the military conflict is temporarily frozen. The Armed Forces of Ukraine may still try to attack in the next two weeks, while the Russian Armed Forces have not yet received replenishment in the form of reservists, however, starting from mid-October, it will be difficult to conduct active offensive operations for meteorological reasons, therefore, an agreement on a temporary ceasefire may be concluded.

There is an opinion that the exchange of Azov fighters and mercenaries sentenced to death, which not without reason outraged the patriotic public (there was a question - is this “denazification”?), may be part of these behind-the-scenes agreements to freeze the conflict. However, the freeze may be short-lived, and in the spring hostilities may resume with renewed vigor. In winter, Moscow will expect the collapse of Zelensky's power and the increase in public tension in Europe caused by the economic crisis, but so far it does not seem that the EU is ready to act contrary to Washington's policy, despite economic losses. And the power of Zelensky, as mentioned above, rests on the bayonets of the United States and Britain.

Second script - Russia annexes the LPR, DPR and the liberated territories of Ukraine, however, it is not possible to achieve any agreements with Kyiv and the West (primarily the United States), so a real escalation of the conflict may occur in the near future. If Kyiv does not stop attacking Russian territory, then the Russian Federation can not only start inflicting massive strikes on thermal power plants (what we saw were only “flowers”), but also use tactical nuclear weapons (TNW).

Some experts and Telegram channels are seriously discussing the use of tactical nuclear weapons, especially after the words of the President of Russia, and even name the alleged targets - the Yavoriv test site and military training grounds and supply bases in Western Ukraine. However, the use of nuclear weapons will open a Pandora's box that will be difficult to close.

Firstly, this will be a precedent – ​​no one has used nuclear weapons since the Second World War, and if Russia successfully uses it, then why can't others do it in the future? For this reason, in order to prevent such precedents, as an example to others, most countries of the civilized world (including China, which, as the situation with Taiwan has demonstrated, is currently not ready for a serious escalation with the United States) will break off relations with Russia under pressure from Washington, as a result which would put her in complete isolation.

Secondly, the reaction of the West to the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unclear. The expectation that the United States and the European Union will then stop supporting Ukraine, and that it will capitulate as a result, may or may not work. The world may be on the brink of nuclear war.

Third scenario, according to which Russia manages to negotiate with the US and Europe, which will help Kyiv to conclude an agreement with Moscow, at this stage seems the least likely, but it cannot be ruled out. Theoretically, the Kremlin has the opportunity not to recognize the referendums, for example, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, and to recognize them only in the LPR and DPR, if the West offers something in return, and conclude some kind of behind-the-scenes agreement. However, at the moment there is no basis for such an agreement, no ground for compromise.

History moves in a spiral (as a conclusion)


«History moves in a spiral, because it never repeats itself, but each time it enters a new phase in a different form than the one that had a similar phase of the previous cycle.

- so wrote the Italian philosopher and historian Giambattista Vico in his fundamental work "Foundations of a New Science of the Common Nature of Nations". He noted that this difference is due to the nature of the previous development, each time creating something new.

At the moment, the world has entered a new era of instability, the result of which, apparently, may be a new political reformatting of both Europe and the world. This was already the case during the First and Second World Wars. Unfortunately, the risk of the situation slipping into a global conflict, which Serbian President A. Vučić is talking about, cannot be completely ruled out, it exists, and it is growing. The military conflict in Ukraine is escalating, and the United States and its allies, who actually control the Ukrainian political elites in manual mode, show no signs of readiness for a compromise, because they believe that Russia can be crushed.

Perhaps, those who have read the likely scenarios for the development of the conflict, it will seem that the author is overly pessimistic, but the author only pointed out the possible options and the risks associated with them. Whether these risks are exaggerated or not, only time will tell. In any case, Russia needs to complete the military operation in Ukraine as soon as possible (and preferably without the use of nuclear weapons, for the reasons indicated above), because the longer the military conflict drags on, the more Ukraine will be militarized. Why? Here am I I will quote from an article in the Russian edition of Anti-Fascist, which answers this question:

“At present, the Democrats have pushed through decisions on long-term contracts between the Pentagon and key enterprises of the US military-industrial complex for the supply of weapons to Ukraine. After the contracts are signed, it will take some time to transfer money to the main military contractors, and then the process of deploying additional industrial space and capacity to increase the production of military equipment, weapons and ammunition will begin. It will take a year, plus or minus, to install production lines and train personnel. Well, a maximum of one and a half. And then a deadly cargo will flow into Ukraine in a powerful stream.
What does this mean for Russia? One simple thing: delaying a special military operation can lead to sad consequences for the RF Armed Forces. I want to remind those who have doubts how the United States increased military production during the Second World War.
By 1943, America was flooding with equipment and weapons of its allies. And this despite the fact that at that time a large number of American ships with military cargoes to Europe were sunk by shark flocks of Nazi submarines - the Kriegsmarine of the Third Reich. Now the delivery of military supplies from the United States to Europe is completely safe and without restrictions.
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  1. Adrey
    Adrey 27 September 2022 16: 10
    -5
    Captain (president) obvious ...
    1. Sergey Averchenkov
      Sergey Averchenkov 27 September 2022 16: 45
      -2
      Of course, it's obvious, but it's not bad to remind those ... who are over the hill.
  2. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 27 September 2022 16: 14
    +12
    ... the Kremlin has the opportunity not to recognize the referendums ...

    Nothing could be worse than this. What will be the consequences then? no matter which side you look at.
    Interestingly, the author himself suggested or advised who.
    1. ViktorBiryukov
      27 September 2022 16: 51
      +11
      The reptilians did not instruct me, you don't have to worry about that :) I'm just discussing various options without unnecessary emotions. This option is unlikely, but it cannot be completely ruled out. As for the consequences... How many such illogical and absurd decisions have been made before. For example, while I was writing this article, today it became known that the Federation Council would not hold extraordinary meetings to adopt laws on the entry of new regions into the Russian Federation and the next meeting would take place only on October 4, although earlier there was information that the Federation Council would meet September 29th. Therefore, we will look.
      1. Reptiloid
        Reptiloid 27 September 2022 18: 04
        +1
        Quote: Viktor Biryukov
        The reptilians didn't instruct me, don't worry about that :) ......

        But where can you find them? hi
        A short time after the start of the SVO, one of the political scientists (online) considered the option of a compromise (among other options), that is, freezing, at the request of Europe or Kyiv ... There were words about this
        strategic defeat

        True, the option with tactical nuclear weapons was not considered at all then.
        1. Plate
          Plate 27 September 2022 19: 43
          +4
          Quote: Reptiloid
          True, the option with tactical nuclear weapons was not considered at all then.

          It's impossible to see it. In history, there were no cases of mass use of nuclear weapons. When considering such options, there is simply nothing to build on when making social and political forecasts. As the author correctly wrote, this is Pandora's box. What's inside, no one knows.
          1. Sergey Averchenkov
            Sergey Averchenkov 27 September 2022 20: 16
            0
            There is a first time for everything....
            1. Sergey Averchenkov
              Sergey Averchenkov 27 September 2022 20: 26
              0
              And so ... I calculated how many characters are needed to satisfy the moderators, although the moderators may not be in business here ... But anyway, I calculated - 30. I know that the ellipsis has only three dots, but I added dots before until the message gets through. Got 30.
      2. Sergey Averchenkov
        Sergey Averchenkov 27 September 2022 20: 14
        0
        Thanks for the analysis. I liked.
      3. Zakirov Damir
        Zakirov Damir 28 September 2022 11: 53
        -2
        Quote: Viktor Biryukov
        The reptilians did not instruct me, you don't have to worry about that :) I'm just discussing various options without unnecessary emotions. This option is unlikely, but it cannot be completely ruled out.

        I fully support! Turn on LDNR, but Zaporozhye and Kherson are not - they fought and left!

        Well, since we have already considered such an option, we cannot rule out a situation in which "the upper classes cannot, but the lower classes do not want to." For example, the forced change of the top political leadership of the Russian Federation, the restoration of all economic ties with Europe and the entry of the population of the Russian Federation into the LGBT community. No wonder they say that everything comes through our ass!

        My version is no worse than your multi-variant ones and can be safely included in the continuation of your topic. And the people on the forum will vote!
      4. free
        free 28 September 2022 17: 59
        0
        shark flocks
        better wolf packs
    2. AAC
      AAC 27 September 2022 17: 11
      -3
      The Kremlin is cruel. But this is required by politics.
  3. Corsair
    Corsair 27 September 2022 16: 15
    +7
    Judging by the undermining of the three lines of the Nordic Streams, Europe was left with no choice, the only question is whether we will respond to this, does this give us the right to sink ships with LNG or other resources without identifying ourselves.
  4. Doctor
    Doctor 27 September 2022 16: 15
    +5
    Secondly, the reaction of the West to the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unclear. The expectation that the United States and the European Union will then stop supporting Ukraine, and that it will capitulate as a result, may or may not work. The world may be on the brink of nuclear war.

    The most likely option is the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine. Then a "limited" nuclear war awaits us.
    1. ViktorBiryukov
      27 September 2022 16: 27
      +10
      It is possible (and even highly probable) that this will be the case. Unfortunately. That is why I am writing that it is very dangerous to use tactical nuclear weapons. And those who call for this do not think about the consequences.
  5. VLR
    VLR 27 September 2022 16: 24
    +12
    It seems that humanity needs regular bloodletting and even craves it. People over 50 should remember what the fear of a new war was like in the 70s and 80s. XX century, how powerful was the anti-war movement.
    Wars were allowed somewhere in "wild" Africa or Asia. But no one could even think about hostilities in Europe - until the events in Yugoslavia, which came as a shock to many, but at the same time broke the barriers.
    And now the situation has gone completely out of whack. Everyone in the West is eager to fight - not only politicians, but also the townsfolk, in all seriousness there are talks about the use of nuclear weapons, it seems that they are already looking forward to it. In general, given the speed of escalation, the Serb's forecast does not look fantastic. An alarming situation in the world. In fact, no one is interested in Ukraine anymore, it was written off as scrap, ordered to become a "sacred victim" - and, most surprisingly, many Ukrainians happily agreed.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 27 September 2022 17: 20
      +5
      Quote: VlR
      People over 50 should remember what the fear of a new war was like in the 70s and 80s. XX century, how powerful was the anti-war movement.

      The people of the West have been propagandists for 30 years, preparing for war, and they already perceive war as a common occurrence.
      1. Reptiloid
        Reptiloid 27 September 2022 18: 20
        +2
        hi the West has long dreamed of the destruction of Russia.
        Who owns the heartland owns the world

        But after all, they called the Heartland, owned by Russia! That is, they could not even imagine this option and immediately formulated it in such a way that it was some kind of no man's land. There was a short period of time
        peace-friendship-gum

        Is over. It can be seen how tired they are, despite the benefits of "friendship" with Russia
  6. EFIM LYUBIN
    EFIM LYUBIN 27 September 2022 16: 31
    +4
    The senile Clinton, when she was US Secretary of State, claimed that it was possible to win a "limited" nuclear war! Then the US political establishment took it as crazy. I now have more than half of the US Congress want it! 60 years ago, during the Caribbean Crisis, the Pentagon called for a nuclear bombing of the USSR - politicians in the United States were in the majority against it. And now it's the other way around because of the utter illiteracy and stupidity of the US political elite, which is supported by the same idiots in Europe and the World.
    1. lubesky
      lubesky 27 September 2022 16: 41
      0
      Quote: EFIM LYUBIN
      The senile Clinton, when she was US Secretary of State, claimed that it was possible to win a "limited" nuclear war! Then the US political establishment took it as crazy. I now have more than half of the US Congress want it! 60 years ago, during the Caribbean Crisis, the Pentagon called for a nuclear bombing of the USSR - politicians in the United States were in the majority against it. And now it's the other way around because of the utter illiteracy and stupidity of the US political elite, which is supported by the same idiots in Europe and the World.

      And now the Pentagon asks not to go crazy senile politicians from the skulls and the ivy league. What an irony...
  7. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 16: 35
    +3
    The Russian Federation can not only start inflicting massive strikes on thermal power plants (what we saw were only “flowers”), but also use tactical nuclear weapons (TNW)

    Special meaning in approx. TNW is not. Is it possible to bombard large targets in the western part of Ukraine with TNW charges, and then observe fat strings of refugees, first to Eastern, and then to Western Europe. What then to do with these devastated semi-infected territories? The destruction of three gas pipelines in Danish waters indicates that someone is stubbornly and uncompromisingly pushing for such a development of the situation.
    1. Ozark
      Ozark 30 September 2022 12: 11
      0
      I believe that the nord stream interruption is about denial. First, it denies Russia control and any revenue. Second, it denies European prosperity and will drive lots of businesses to America. And Europe will freeze and starve without gas and industry.
  8. t-12
    t-12 27 September 2022 16: 40
    +6
    we will use all available defenses, and this is not a bluff

    Only "partners" can not believe it. Many times they heard ominous statements about strikes on decision-making centers, about the death penalty for the Nazis, and so on. But there are no blows, the Nazis are released. And now the "partners" can decide that they can even bang around Moscow, nothing will fly in response.
    1. Glory1974
      Glory1974 28 September 2022 10: 15
      +2
      And now the "partners" can decide that they can even bang around Moscow, nothing will fly in response.

      I agree with you. Impunity breeds permissiveness. Our leadership threatened a lot, but did nothing. This prompted the partners to aggravate the situation.
    2. matsur
      matsur 29 September 2022 11: 57
      +1
      Quote: t-12
      we will use all available defenses, and this is not a bluff

      Only "partners" can not believe it. Many times they heard ominous statements about strikes on decision-making centers, about the death penalty for the Nazis, and so on. But there are no blows, the Nazis are released. And now the "partners" can decide that they can even bang around Moscow, nothing will fly in response.

      That's why I always call for less f***ing in the media, please excuse me. Yes, it happens in the comments too. Never say what you're going to do. And if you say, do it.
      Do not shout now in the media that Europe will freeze - this is not so likely. No need to say that we will finish ours by "such a deadline." Here are less words and more action. After some words of our top, then even the bottoms turn red.
  9. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 16: 45
    +2
    Quote: Arzt
    Secondly, the reaction of the West to the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unclear. The expectation that the United States and the European Union will then stop supporting Ukraine, and that it will capitulate as a result, may or may not work. The world may be on the brink of nuclear war.

    The most likely option is the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine. Then a "limited" nuclear war awaits us.

    So they want overseas, but I think that after the first strike on the Russian Federation, a comprehensive retaliatory strike on real decision-making centers and their military bases will definitely follow. For a tactical nuclear weapon in Russia will be the very leading-disarming one that the United States has been dreaming of for a long time.
    1. matsur
      matsur 29 September 2022 12: 24
      0
      Quote: Former soldier
      Quote: Arzt
      Secondly, the reaction of the West to the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unclear. The expectation that the United States and the European Union will then stop supporting Ukraine, and that it will capitulate as a result, may or may not work. The world may be on the brink of nuclear war.

      The most likely option is the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine. Then a "limited" nuclear war awaits us.

      So they want overseas, but I think that after the first strike on the Russian Federation, a comprehensive retaliatory strike on real decision-making centers and their military bases will definitely follow. For a tactical nuclear weapon in Russia will be the very leading-disarming one that the United States has been dreaming of for a long time.

      Leading and disarming, I think, is possible if there are no allies left near the border of the Russian Federation. The buildup of Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, press China to the nail and that's it. A preventive strike in places where you can reach and a large number of anti-missile systems and the nuclear stock of the Russian Federation will cease to be a trump card. And there are not very many other trump cards. Create, then deliver to the troops - this is not fast. It is possible and quickly, but not with the current colossus of control. And she's not going anywhere. Ukraine alone will not end the matter. If you merge now, it will be worse later. IMHO.
  10. Aleksandr97
    Aleksandr97 27 September 2022 16: 47
    +5
    To increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is not necessary.
    A possible provocation with tactical nuclear weapons is needed only for one thing - the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine ...
    In the current situation, the use of nuclear weapons on our part does not make sense, but the "destroyer MAN" is very visible !!!
  11. svp67
    svp67 27 September 2022 16: 52
    +7
    Can the military conflict in Ukraine escalate into a world war?
    We tear away four regions from Ukraine, declaring them our territory, with all the ensuing consequences for the defense and protection of these territories, and at this time, simultaneously with us, Polish troops enter the territory of the western regions and take them under their defense, here you have it a situation that at any moment is ready to become the prologue of a world war
    1. Reptiloid
      Reptiloid 27 September 2022 18: 11
      +1
      Sergey, hi please tell me what you think about the fact that there is talk (on the net) --- to give the Westerners to Poland and let them mess with them? Say, in vain they didn’t do this before, wouldn’t there be many problems? At the same time, there are directly opposite opinions.
      1. svp67
        svp67 27 September 2022 18: 18
        +2
        Dmitriy hi
        Quote: Reptiloid
        please tell me what you think about the fact that there is talk (on the network) --- to give the Westerners to Poland and let them mess with them?

        The question is very difficult. By giving up these areas, we deprive ourselves of access to Transcarpathia, but maybe it’s worth it, since any country that takes the western regions of the Outskirts for itself will get a huge bunch of problems for many years
        1. Reptiloid
          Reptiloid 27 September 2022 18: 34
          +2
          I feel, Sergey, you have an established opinion. hi
          How did I think? The tsarist government did not solve this problem. The Bolsheviks did not solve it either, they only coaxed the Westerners with various improvements. And they didn't decide. And today's can somehow decide? Big doubts.
          The zapadenschina was spreading all over Ukraine, and maybe now it is creeping into Russia? After all, they are talking about "internal Ukraine."
          That is, I did not find the answer for myself.
        2. Frank Muller
          Frank Muller 28 September 2022 00: 20
          0
          And the Transcarpathian Rusyns now, in any case, will not return to Russia: at least a fifth of the population of this region have Magyar passports and, in which case, the Hungarians will “return” to themselves what they lost after WWI, and then after WWII. After all, "pioneers". In addition, it has already been reported that a column of Hungarian armored vehicles (during exercises in this region) proceeded through Ukrainian territory and went back to Hungary. Warning? So, worrying about Transcarpathia is pointless - a cut piece.
          As for the Carpathian region, the Poles will take it themselves - Ukraine will have nowhere to go. And by the looks of it, they'll get a headache. The degree of pain of this "migraine" will depend on how flexible the policy towards the freedom-loving Hutsuls they will pursue.
    2. Glory1974
      Glory1974 28 September 2022 10: 18
      +2
      simultaneously with us, Polish troops enter the territory of the western regions and take them under their defense,

      There are already photos of ballots on the Internet on the entry of the Lviv region into Poland. The Poles urged their citizens to leave Russia. What is this if not preparation for the introduction of troops?
      1. svp67
        svp67 28 September 2022 12: 25
        +2
        Quote: glory1974
        .What is this, if not preparation for the introduction of troops?

        Yes, as you might think, no, this is different ... drinks
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. Dilettante grandfather
    Dilettante grandfather 27 September 2022 16: 56
    +6
    There is a fourth option. It's unlikely, but:
    Russia annexes the territory of Novorossiya (i.e. LPR, DPR, Kherson and part of Zaporizhzhia region)
    и NOT stops active. DOES NOT go for deals with the West, which include various options for "sharing" Ukraine. Databases continue without the use of tactical nuclear weapons. (I must say right away that for me personally, this would be the most preferable option.). The Armed Forces of Ukraine will sooner or later exhaust all the possibilities for conducting active hostilities, Europe is not able to provide arms supplies for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to the lack of energy resources necessary for production. In general, I suspect they will soon have no time for the Zelensky clique. In this situation, we can negotiate after the liberation of most of Ukraine, and from a position of strength. We agree not to complete denazification if all these Avakovs, Yaroshis, Arrestovichs and other adherents of Nazism in Ukraine are handed over to us. For the tribunal. If the West agrees, having received all these criminals, we leave part of the territory to the Poles. At the same time, in addition to the current republics, the entire Black Sea coast, with access to Transnistria, should become our territory. The remaining territory of Ukraine should be completely demilitarized, receive the status of a neutral state, without the possibility of deploying any military formations there. It is possible to establish international control there, but without the participation of NATO countries and the United States. With our unconditional opportunity to inspect any corner of this territory at any time.
    Utopia, of course. But I personally would like just such a development of events.
    1. Beregovic_1
      Beregovic_1 27 September 2022 23: 22
      +6
      So, unfortunately, it won't. As mentioned above, Europe was left no room for an agreement. SP1 and SP2 are blown up. If the Ukrainians, at the command of Washington, blow up the Ukrainian gas transportation system, the Europeans are left without gas at all. And there is nothing good for us here. Impoverishment = creation of a social basis for war. In other words, the main thing is to gather a protesting crowd, and sending the crowd in the right direction is a purely technical issue. We are being pitted against Europe. We will not use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but we will use them in the case prescribed in the doctrine - when sovereignty is threatened or it is impossible to win with conventional weapons. Which, in the event of a war with all of Europe, is likely. God forbid I'm wrong
      1. ada
        ada 28 September 2022 01: 46
        +5
        Quote: Beregovyhok_1
        ... God forbid that I am wrong

        Don't be mistaken. I confirm.
        With minor assumptions, it fully corresponds to the materials of the political information of the mid-80s, I don’t remember the name of the topic exactly, but by analogy with modern military fashion, such as "Challenges and threats to the world coming from the imperialist military at the turn of the 20th - 21st centuries" wassat Not a joke (explain, just in case). So say something bad about the analysts of state institutions and the USSR Ministry of Defense. There, only on the issues of oil production there were a few inaccuracies, a deficit was predicted from 1995, if my memory serves me right (I believe, an error in modern production methods). Everything else is calculated correctly. Destruction of all kinds of pipelines and redirection of flows - so finally zero to zero. Then I also became interested in what kind of crap a "product pipeline" was, and the people neighed (cadets, wild people), like - food goes through pipes. laughing Now no one is laughing.
        Then, I dare to assure you, it is enough to assess the direction and venues of the activities of operational, combat and other training of the NATO Allied Forces (widely represented in the media, they love it, well, they love it), to draw all sorts of arrows and lines on the map, well, to finish drawing ours. Voila.
        Yes, I almost forgot, NATO is the United States, but the United States is not NATO, the United States will be distanced from a major regional conflict in the European theater of operations until an indefinite moment until it feels that it is time (it is written on the forehead), if it does not become by this moment small-island tip of S-AK (this is a joke).
    2. Frank Muller
      Frank Muller 28 September 2022 00: 26
      +3
      : I would also prefer this scenario. But you yourself said: Utopia! Moreover, all the "mutnyaks" arranged by the current government completely exclude this utopia.
    3. stankow
      stankow 28 September 2022 10: 17
      0
      Why utopia? This is exactly what happened in East Germany.
  14. Timofey Charuta
    Timofey Charuta 27 September 2022 17: 02
    +1
    Question from an amateur for those who understand.

    There will be no Russian gas in Europe. Let's say. The Americans seemed to be going to flood Europe with their liquefied gas. One of the goals of this whole canoe. I read that somewhere in Europe they even built (are building) the corresponding terminals. Well, how about this?

    And developments in the North Sea - what is there?
    Another question - on what gas are countries such as England remote from Russia sitting? Nord Stream did not seem to be pulled there. Denmark is turning something around with its gas production in the North Sea, too. So can everyone start pumping gas from there together? Not?

    Thanks for the convincing answer without being smart, without snot and screams.
  15. parusnik
    parusnik 27 September 2022 17: 06
    +6
    There is only one conclusion: few people will live until retirement. Redistribution of the world. Until the complete annihilation of mankind. Back in Soviet times, then a member of the Komsomol, and now a foreign agent sang:

    I did not believe the promises and I will not believe in the future,
    Promises to believe no longer make sense.
    But to tell you the truth, I’d just like to see
    See what will happen to our world in 20 years,
    What will happen to the world in 20 years.

    Maybe all people will live in one big country,
    Above which there will be eternal sun light.
    After 20 years, no one will remember the war,
    If only something will be with us in 20 years,
    If something happens in 20 years.

    Twenty years is a long time and you will understand in 20 years,
    What is darkness and what is light.

    After 20 years, people will forget what lies are,
    If only something will happen to them in 20 years,
    If something happens in 20 years.

    I would give everything in the world and ask for one thing
    So that only with us something will be in 20 years,
    To have something in 20 years.
    Not fused ...
    1. ViktorBiryukov
      27 September 2022 17: 39
      +7
      Wars were never started with the aim of destroying humanity - no one aspired to this. Wars were often started because the strong wanted to become even stronger. This did not always work out, sometimes the strong eventually weakened, and completely different ones turned out to win.

      At one time, the Gallic leader Brenn, when asked by the Romans, by what right did the Gauls take land from their rightful owners, answered: “We carry our right at the end of our sword. The whole world belongs to the strong! So, politics has always been guided by the right of the strong. At all times.
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 27 September 2022 18: 08
        +7
        At one time, the Gauls did not have nuclear weapons.
        At one time, about 110 years ago, they wrote in the world press that a world war was not possible, because everything in the world was so closely intertwined that there was no point in unleashing a world war and pacifist sentiments were strong. However, the war began. And ended with a 20-year truce. It will end everything that the survivors will tell their grandchildren about carpets of planes, flying dragons bursting with fire, about sleighs that drive themselves, a magic apple on a plate, sitting by the fire in a cave .. smile
        1. Dilettante grandfather
          Dilettante grandfather 28 September 2022 04: 59
          +1
          At one time, the Gauls did not have nuclear weapons
          So they didn’t need it, they had Asterix and Obelix instead of nuclear weapons. laughing
        2. Glory1974
          Glory1974 28 September 2022 10: 24
          +1
          110 years ago, they wrote in the world press that a world war is not possible, because everything in the world is so closely intertwined,

          they also said that with the invention of machine guns, war was impossible. Then they said that aviation would bomb everything and a ground war did not make sense. Then they said that nuclear weapons make war impossible.
          But many already doubt it.
      2. Dilettante grandfather
        Dilettante grandfather 28 September 2022 04: 57
        +2
        Wars have always started and are starting with a simpler goal. For the purpose of profit. Why did the crusaders ride on their tours? Rob. All these "we will free the temple of the Lord" are just excuses. And the Gauls took away the land from the owners not just like that, but in order to get profit from these lands. wink
  16. Nikolay Malyugin
    Nikolay Malyugin 27 September 2022 17: 17
    -1
    You can talk about nuclear war. But few people are psychologically ready to start it and press the nuclear button. But what about the Christian faith, which is everywhere at the forefront. Or has it already turned into hypocrisy? According to religion, God created life on Earth, and it is up to him to decide when to spend Judgment Day. And then the earthly creatures decided to take care of this. And I'm sure they will shout, "The hand of God is with us."
    1. Mwg
      Mwg 28 September 2022 18: 46
      +1
      "But few people are psychologically ready to start it and press the nuclear button." - And when did the elves do anything with their own hands? They will give it back to the Sumerians, and those in a cocaine frenzy will still be able to press.
      Well, the elves will throw a tantrum in the most "truthful" media that this is Russia. And they are all in white, as always. And here we are going to fuck each other and further.
      No need to talk about God in vain. He has no hands but ours.
  17. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 17: 19
    +3
    Quote: Timofey Charuta
    Question from an amateur for those who understand.

    There will be no Russian gas in Europe. Let's say. The Americans seemed to be going to flood Europe with their liquefied gas. One of the goals of this whole canoe. I read that somewhere in Europe they even built (are building) the corresponding terminals. Well, how about this?

    And developments in the North Sea - what is there?
    Another question - on what gas are countries such as England remote from Russia sitting? Nord Stream did not seem to be pulled there. Denmark is turning something around with its gas production in the North Sea, too. So can everyone start pumping gas from there together? Not?

    Thanks for the convincing answer without being smart, without snot and screams.
    [Center]

    1. Terminals have been built, they are able to accept large volumes, but few people carry it to Europe. Contracts for delivery to other places have already been signed. It takes several years to expand production and redistribute flows.
    2. In the North Sea, production is declining. Norwegians and Scots do not want to feed Europe, otherwise they themselves will have to starve.
    3. England gas from the North Sea.
    It looks like it's black.
    1. Timofey Charuta
      Timofey Charuta 27 September 2022 17: 46
      +1
      Thanks again for your reply. Briefly and clearly. That's pretty much what I thought myself.
  18. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 27 September 2022 18: 02
    0
    By 1943, America was flooding with equipment and weapons of its allies.
    belay Would you like to rave? The most massive WWII tank? And the plane? E-34 and IL-2. How can you overwhelm something great? fool
  19. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 18: 33
    +1
    Quote: Mavrikiy
    By 1943, America was flooding with equipment and weapons of its allies.
    belay Would you like to rave? The most massive WWII tank? And the plane? E-34 and IL-2. How can you overwhelm something great? fool

    The most important supplies for us were: stew, egg powder, armor plate, gunpowder and trucks.
    1. Grim Reaper
      Grim Reaper 27 September 2022 20: 09
      -1
      Quote: Former soldier
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      By 1943, America was flooding with equipment and weapons of its allies.
      belay Would you like to rave? The most massive WWII tank? And the plane? E-34 and IL-2. How can you overwhelm something great? fool

      The most important supplies for us were: stew, egg powder, armor plate, gunpowder and trucks.

      Also penicillin. For gold, by the way. They did not sell us the secrets of production
  20. ivan2022
    ivan2022 27 September 2022 18: 52
    -1
    Quote: Former soldier

    The most important supplies for us were: stew, egg powder, armor plate, gunpowder and trucks.
    Are you a WWII soldier?
  21. Vladimir M
    Vladimir M 27 September 2022 19: 31
    +3
    I don’t understand what everyone is talking about tactical nuclear weapons? Firstly, in order to use nuclear weapons, you need to have eggs, and given the fact that we are constantly transferring "red lines" - this is hardly possible from Russia. Secondly, where can nuclear weapons be used in Ukraine? where and what goals in Ukraine can be for nuclear weapons? Tactical nuclear weapons are against a company stronghold or battalion defense area. Using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is like using them against yourself. But the Anglo-Saxons can easily organize a provocation at a nuclear power plant.
  22. zenion
    zenion 27 September 2022 19: 34
    +1
    It is very reminiscent of a person who climbed a tree, but cannot come down. But for such cases, there is Khoja Nasretdin, who comes to the rescue. Only he knows how to take a man out of a tree. Came and took charge. Bring the rope. Throw the rope up. Tie a rope around your chest under your arms. So, five people take the rope. As soon as I give the command, pull with all your might. Pull. The man was pulled off, he fell and was killed. Khoja said strangely, but I saw how a man was pulled out of a well in this way. What happened to Ukraine is not the way to pull it out of the well. This is the way a person was removed from a tree, where he climbed, but failed to come down. Maybe it's better to cut down a tree, or blow it up. And the use of nuclear weapons is the same way to get and capture Moscow in three months, or to liberate Ukraine from Ukrainians in two weeks. That is, to promise the people that in ten years everyone will live in such a way that it will be better, as when there was no life at all and it will be like with the creature that crawled out of the water onto land.
  23. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 20: 01
    +1
    Quote: ivan2022
    Quote: Former soldier

    The most important supplies for us were: stew, egg powder, armor plate, gunpowder and trucks.
    Are you a WWII soldier?

    And what do you think?
    My parents were starving during the war. They told. My grandfather told my mother about the very poor food at the front. In the winter of 42-43, I lost both feet. I listened to the stories of the neighbors of the front-line soldiers through the fence of the living. There were many more in the 60s. The fathers of my 2 closest friends were front-line soldiers. My father did not have time for the war. He worked at a military factory from the age of 13. Most often he recalled hunger, malnutrition. I won’t scare you with the percentage of deliveries of armor plates, gunpowder and vehicles, read the Soviet reports. Fantasies of any Corned beef 80s-90s, etc., do not read. Don't waste your time.
  24. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 20: 24
    +1
    Quote: Vladimir M
    where can nuclear weapons be used in Ukraine? where and what goals in Ukraine can be for nuclear weapons?

    I am against it, but bridges, railway nodes can be demolished for a long time.
  25. Former soldier
    Former soldier 27 September 2022 20: 32
    +4
    Quote: Grim Reaper
    Also penicillin.

    I can’t say anything about penicillin, but I’ve heard about the widespread use of streptocide for the treatment of wounds. The people treated him with great respect. They cleaned it, sprinkled it, and lo and behold, it does not rot and healed.
  26. Frank Muller
    Frank Muller 28 September 2022 00: 49
    0
    After the so far "inexplicable gaps" at SP and SP - 2 and the subsequent statements by Matvienko on the postponement (from the end of September to October 4, in addition, it is not said what year) of considering the results of the referendums "On the accession of regions to Russia", one gets the impression that events begin to develop according to the third scenario. The grounds for a "world" (or actual surrender, announced by another "good will") are quite obvious: they will try to prevent catastrophic losses in profits, on which the business of the Russian elites is based. there is no one to direct them centrally, the predominantly philistine psychology in society will accept any decision of the authorities, and the numerous gendarmerie will cope with the most decisive speeches.
    1. Glory1974
      Glory1974 28 September 2022 10: 31
      +1
      one gets the impression that events are beginning to develop according to the third scenario. The grounds for a "world" (or actual capitulation, announced by another "good will") are quite obvious: they will try to prevent catastrophic losses in profits, on which the business of the Russian elites is based.

      This is probably the most plausible scenario. The behind-the-scenes trades between Moscow and Washington do not stop, either a voluntary withdrawal, or a grain deal, or promises not to destroy the infrastructure, or an exchange of "Azov" 1 to 4. But as a result, Putin reports that we were once again deceived, they did not keep their promises, violated the agreement, etc. The elite still hopes to reach an agreement, the United States realized that they could play on this. And that's it, there are no limits for aggravation. Whatever the United States does, ours will not answer, they will wait for an offer to agree.
  27. Former soldier
    Former soldier 28 September 2022 07: 58
    0
    Quote: svp67
    Can the military conflict in Ukraine escalate into a world war?
    We tear away four regions from Ukraine, declaring them our territory, with all the ensuing consequences for the defense and protection of these territories, and at this time, simultaneously with us, Polish troops enter the territory of the western regions and take them under their defense, here you have it a situation that at any moment is ready to become the prologue of a world war

    It turns out that you still have to hit tactical nuclear weapons in "our" Ukraine, if Polish (NATO troops) appear in it, like bedbugs in the couch. Although the West has a move - to declare this a private initiative of Poland, not NATO.
  28. Former soldier
    Former soldier 28 September 2022 08: 15
    -1
    Quote: Frank Muller
    After the so far "inexplicable gaps" at SP and SP - 2 and the subsequent statements by Matvienko on the postponement (from the end of September to October 4, in addition, it is not said what year) of considering the results of the referendums "On the accession of regions to Russia", one gets the impression that events begin to develop according to the third scenario. The grounds for a "world" (or actual surrender, announced by another "good will") are quite obvious: they will try to prevent catastrophic losses in profits, on which the business of the Russian elites is based. there is no one to direct them centrally, the predominantly philistine psychology in society will accept any decision of the authorities, and the numerous gendarmerie will cope with the most decisive speeches.


    Transfer / do not transfer joining Russia, at least declare any actions of "good will" and even "surrender" with the withdrawal of troops will no longer stop the expansion of anti-Russian actions by the United States. Where their limit is hard to imagine. So far, since 2014, we have not seen a single step back by the West or a stop or a hint of reconciliation. They were not stopped even by the threat of using nuclear weapons without a bluff.
  29. stankow
    stankow 28 September 2022 10: 10
    0
    The author makes a division into Russia and the "civilized world". Clearly...
  30. Aleprok
    Aleprok 28 September 2022 10: 37
    0
    In addition to Lend-Lease equipment, a human mobilization resource is also needed, which must be trained to use and maintain it, and even restore the damaged one. The question will arise with the resource, because. the most rabid are gradually disposed of, many ordinary people understand that they are destined for the fate of a bargaining chip for the interests of the overseas hegemon. That is, in addition to equipment, NATO will also begin to supply human resources, first in the form of all sorts of PMCs, etc., and then, as a result, they will fit in in the form of the Polish and Romanian armies, there are plenty of scumbags who want to fight with us. So we can't count on an early victory for the time being. Everything can start to change with the deterioration of the economic situation around the world and especially in the GAS. Let's wait and see, it's coming soon.
  31. Altmann
    Altmann 28 September 2022 17: 37
    +1
    The peoples of Europe are indifferent to war unless war comes to them. Well, the war is coming, slowly but surely. A nuclear strike will already be a hopelessness and Russia will be morally disabled for a hundred years. I don't know what will happen and how, but if Russia does it quickly, Russia will win. As always, the United States will benefit from this, they will build not only the destroyed Ukraine, but also Europe to the Urals. Well, I hope nothing like this happens! am
  32. opposite28
    opposite28 28 September 2022 17: 53
    -2
    “I suppose that from the phase of a special military operation we are approaching a major military conflict. The question is, where are the borders, and will we slide down after some time, and maybe in a month or two, into a big world conflict, which has not been since the Second World War”,
    A subtle allusion to the thick circumstances associated with the Kosovo problem, the search for answers by analogy with the events in the Donbass region, thoughts out loud according to Vučić, nothing more.
  33. place
    place 28 September 2022 18: 00
    +1
    The true meaning of the events of the last 30 years is hidden from the general public. The same, for example, as the meaning of the expansion of the capital of Russia, Moscow, to the borders, strongly reminiscent of the lessons of life safety in their outlines. It remains only to pray to God for mercy, for it is said; "Pray that THIS does not happen in winter."
  34. Kargapoltsev Alexander
    Kargapoltsev Alexander 29 September 2022 12: 53
    -1
    The fact that the Ukrainians will not meet our flowers even I knew at least 4 months before the start of the NWO - I just talked with a rather moderate and sane resident of Kyiv at work. If I, the small insect, knew, then our intelligence and everyone who was supposed to know could not help but know. They knew that nothing would go according to any plan and it would be like today.
    But they started. To the detriment of oneself (at the risk of ending up like Gaddafi with the muzzle of a gun in the anus) and to the detriment of the country - substituting under the scenario of Berkemi al Atomi, that is, under complete destruction. Us with you by the way.
    There is only one conclusion, as well as in the film "Ivan Vasilyevich Changes His Profession" beloved by the people - the tsar is not real, a puppet obediently fulfilling the will of the dark forces. The goal is the complete destruction of our state and people.
    Conclusion from the conclusion: we have nothing to lose, now only to the end, victory or death. Defeat and agreements will mean the change of the President, the withdrawal of nuclear weapons and the destruction of the country.
    Therefore, if in the near future you hear about an agreement and peace not on our terms, do not rush to rejoice, peace is not always good
    perhaps this with a high degree of probability will mean the end. I'll be glad to be wrong.
  35. Deon59
    Deon59 30 September 2022 09: 04
    -2
    Everywhere you look it’s bad for Russia. And this is all the result of the policy of the current leadership of the country. Some people fled abroad, well, people don’t want to die for the interests of Miller and Sechenov, for the Chelsea club, for the home of the mustachioed cockroach in America. Yes, and the rest have no choice great. The motherland must be defended, and the snickering army of officials, deputies and oligarchs will have to be defended. The police and the National Guard are larger than the army, but they are not called up, they are not called up who did not serve, but who are the children of the chiefs or who paid off. And as a result, ordinary people who must die again go to war.
  36. ivan2022
    ivan2022 2 October 2022 19: 09
    -2
    Quote from Deon59
    Wherever you look, it’s bad everywhere for Russia. And this is all the result of the policy of the current leadership of the country. Some people fled abroad, well, they don’t want to ..

    Many people want to go abroad. Cut the dough and leave. Long before the start of the 21st century. Since the time of Peter Why? Because the Russians are not able to nominate worthy people from among their people. Basically. And the further you go, the worse it gets.

    Who can - knocks. Who can not, scolds the country's leadership. Bringing order to the country is an impossible task