Military Review

The National Interest wrote about "possible scenarios" for further Russian military actions in Ukraine

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The National Interest wrote about "possible scenarios" for further Russian military actions in Ukraine

The successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) in the Kharkiv direction gave a boost of optimism to both Kyiv and its Western allies. However, yesterday news about the forthcoming referenda in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Kherson region, the liberated part of the Zaporozhye region pretty spoiled the mood of both the Ukrainian authorities and the West. It is not for nothing that French President Emmanuel Macron tried to call Vladimir Putin yesterday - they did not connect.


In a rapidly changing political situation, Russia has several possible military scenarios, writes the American magazine The National Interest. Each of them should alert the Western world in its own way. Let's consider them in order.

Scenario one. Russian troops, which will receive new reinforcements after the referenda, will launch an offensive against Odessa. If Odessa is lost, Ukraine will lose access to the Black Sea. This will be an economic and, consequently, a political disaster for the regime of Volodymyr Zelensky. For example, how will Ukrainian grain be exported? You will have to forget about access to the sea, and without the sea, Ukraine will turn out to be “stubby”, much less interesting to the West.

Scenario two. The Russian Armed Forces will launch an offensive with fresh forces in the north of Ukraine, which will lead to cutting off the Kharkov grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the main forces and getting it into an environment with subsequent destruction. After that, it will no longer be difficult for the Russian army to advance deep into Ukraine.

Scenario three. Russia will strengthen its military presence in all areas, announcing mobilization in the country. Now the main problem of the Russian special military operation is the lack of personnel. Many military experts throughout the entire period of the special operation urged the Kremlin to announce a partial mobilization and draft the missing number of military personnel into the army. According to some estimates, we are talking about 300 thousand people. With such forces, Russia would already be able to inflict a quick defeat on Ukrainian troops and take control of much larger territories.

Of course, mobilization will require a certain exertion of forces and economic resources. But on the other hand, it will allow to radically change the situation at the front. Concerns about the general nature of mobilization seem to be groundless: State Duma deputy Alexander Borodai recently said that general mobilization is not needed, the problem will be solved by the call of military specialists. The fact that there will be no general mobilization was also announced by Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov, who is a deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, and previously held the position of Deputy Minister of Defense.

Finally, the fourth scenario is the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Having decided on such a scenario, Russia will not only destroy most of the Ukrainian army and political leadership, but will also demonstrate to the West that it is “not joking” and further confrontation could end very badly.

Judging by the fact that the Western press has already begun to worry about the implementation of these scenarios, the West understands that all the resistance of the Ukrainian army is largely such because Russia is conducting a special operation far from being at full strength. Not too long ago, President Vladimir Putin reminded the West that "we haven't even started yet."

If Russia fights with other forces and at a different pace, then there will simply be no one to resist very quickly in Ukraine. A few dozen self-propelled guns or SPAAGs from Germany or France will not help, and Western airsoft fans and other "wild geese" will completely forget the way to Ukraine.
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 21 September 2022 08: 47
    +3
    The National Interest wrote about "possible scenarios" for further Russian military operations in Ukraine
    Yes, everyone is interested...
    1. Shurik70
      Shurik70 21 September 2022 08: 59
      -1
      Yes, don’t care, all the same, all their scenarios of newspaper experts are justified in only one thing - NOTHING GOOD shines for them
      1. Trapp1st
        Trapp1st 21 September 2022 09: 25
        +9
        NOTHING GOOD for them
        The profit is made, the Russians are killing the Russians, so it's still a question...
        1. Arbeiternegast
          Arbeiternegast 27 September 2022 22: 58
          +1
          Yes, to the point. The West needs this, why risk a white bone, if there is an organizer cue talent, for troubles.
  2. Nexcom
    Nexcom 21 September 2022 08: 51
    +11
    Concerns about the general nature of mobilization seem to be groundless: State Duma deputy Alexander Borodai recently said that general mobilization is not needed, the problem will be solved by the call of military specialists. The fact that there will be no general mobilization was also announced by Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov


    Well, to be extremely frank, they also promised not to raise the retirement age. So let's see what will happen in reality ....
    1. Nexcom
      Nexcom 21 September 2022 09: 11
      +1
      All announced PARTIAL MOBILIZATION. From today. So far, it will affect the reserves. Just Putin V.V. announced the signing of the decree.
      1. lopvlad
        lopvlad 21 September 2022 09: 29
        0
        Quote: Nexcom
        declared PARTIAL MOBILIZATION.


        it was initially clear that Putin was on the path of Ukraine when the most important thing would not be to fill the units with cannon fodder. To really increase the power of the army, specialists who had served "in boots" were needed. In Russia, the vast majority of artillery and missile systems are not involved due to a lack of specialists and their You don't catch any of the homeless on the street.
        1. Yngvar
          Yngvar 21 September 2022 12: 14
          +2
          Not only artillery systems! Communications and control, air defense and missile defense, and indeed all high-tech systems, the collapse and destruction of military medicine! A catastrophic lack of junior officers - platoon and company! Loss of the quality of training l / s in the troops! "Thank you" to the "reformers" for the collapse of military education and the Army as a whole!
          That's mobilization! And this, as I understand it, is only the first wave!
    2. lis-ik
      lis-ik 21 September 2022 09: 19
      +7
      Quote: Nexcom
      Concerns about the general nature of mobilization seem to be groundless: State Duma deputy Alexander Borodai recently said that general mobilization is not needed, the problem will be solved by the call of military specialists. The fact that there will be no general mobilization was also announced by Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov


      Well, to be extremely frank, they also promised not to raise the retirement age. So let's see what will happen in reality ....

      In general, I would not particularly hope for a radical change in the situation, the main thing is lacking, the desire and determination of the authorities.
      1. Akuzenka
        Akuzenka 21 September 2022 10: 52
        -1
        In general, I would not particularly hope for a radical change in the situation, the main thing is lacking, the desire and determination of the authorities.
        It seems to me that you do not have enough continuation - does not want to lose profits.
      2. lopvlad
        lopvlad 21 September 2022 13: 02
        +1
        Quote: lis-ik
        lacks the main thing, the desire and determination of the authorities.


        I subscribe to these words. From the very beginning, the SVO resembles a sluggish schizophrenia with a constant eye on what the West will say and what it will do.
        And the main thing is that after several weeks of the NMD, when it became clear that Kyiv was not thinking about any surrender, the critical infrastructure of the enemy had not been liquidated so far, and the defense industry had not been transferred to a military footing at the beginning of the NMD.
        After all, it was initially clear that there was a lack of precision-guided munitions, and over the past more than six months, it was possible not only to actually increase their production, but also to build several new factories.
        In the end, what we have is what we have.
  3. marchcat
    marchcat 21 September 2022 08: 51
    +15
    Cutting off Ukraine from the sea, in my opinion, will be a paramount task. This is the deprivation of arms supplies and the import of goods that bring profit to the regime.
    1. shm_kv
      shm_kv 21 September 2022 09: 05
      0
      By sea, deliveries go to 3 countries, from where railway communication to Ukraine is usually carried out together with passenger trains. So, a significant part of the territory will have to be cut off. But it is easier to destroy the transport and energy infrastructure.
    2. Illanatol
      Illanatol 21 September 2022 09: 08
      +2
      A fair amount of weapons goes to Ukraine through Poland.
    3. novel66
      novel66 21 September 2022 09: 10
      +1
      This is the deprivation of arms supplies and the import of goods that bring profit to the regime.
      I would repeat after the epic hero
  4. konstantin68
    konstantin68 21 September 2022 08: 51
    +1
    Everything will be that way. There is only one end for puppets. It's only a matter of time and effort. All scenarios are good, I don’t even know which one is better. wink
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 21 September 2022 08: 59
      +6
      Quote: konstantin68
      All scenarios are good, I don’t even know which one is better.

      The main thing is that at least one scenario is completed!
      1. novel66
        novel66 21 September 2022 09: 13
        +4
        Looks like the director is confused. lol
        1. NIKN
          NIKN 21 September 2022 09: 44
          +2
          Hi Roma! hi The director has nothing to do with it, there are a lot of advertisements, and the plot is not visible behind the advertisement. wink
          1. novel66
            novel66 21 September 2022 09: 48
            +2
            Hi Kolya hi chase after advertising - you will disappear as a creator
  5. Uprun
    Uprun 21 September 2022 08: 52
    +5
    All scenarios are good, it just needs to be coordinated with the General Staff of the Russian Ministry of Defense, and about tactical nuclear weapons - only Westerners on the border with the Psheks .... where the logistics of supplying weapons ... but the first and second are in priority, the third and fourth are the reserve ... Campaign flat ones have already come up with everything for us ...., well done .....
    1. Uprun
      Uprun 21 September 2022 10: 01
      0
      Mustache, the third scenario has already started ....., we are waiting for the execution of the first two ...., the fourth one is in reserve ....
  6. Two
    Two 21 September 2022 08: 53
    0
    hi Yula in "What, where, to whom;" starts to unwind. stage of waiting for progress!
  7. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 21 September 2022 08: 54
    +1
    news about the upcoming referenda in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kherson region, the liberated part of the Zaporozhye region
    Yes, we will hold an online referendum in Odessa.....
  8. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 21 September 2022 08: 55
    0
    Russian troops, which will receive new reinforcements after the referendums, will launch an attack on Odessa

    By depriving Ukraine of Odessa, Russia will close all the routes of the NATO fleet to the Black Sea, securing its borders.
    1. Uprun
      Uprun 21 September 2022 08: 59
      +3
      No, there is still Bulgaria and Romania ...., Georgia breathes in the back of the head ...., Turkey controls the strait .... let's not wishful thinking, geography is a good thing, who taught at school ....
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 21 September 2022 09: 26
        0
        Quote from uprun
        No, there are still Bulgaria and Romania ...., Georgia breathes in the back of the head ...

        But this is not near Crimea and Odessa, and they are under the gun, but not Russia, but Georgia, and so it breathes every other time, how long to block Sukhum-Batum-Poti.
        1. Uprun
          Uprun 21 September 2022 09: 58
          +2
          Just in case .... Romania borders on the Odessa region exactly opposite the Crimea, well, geography is ... even crack ...
          1. tihonmarine
            tihonmarine 21 September 2022 10: 11
            0
            Quote from uprun
            Just in case .... Romania borders on the Odessa region exactly opposite the Crimea, well, geography is ... even crack ...

            Geography cannot be thrown away, that's for sure, but still at least in Romania, and not near Odessa itself.
  9. Dilettante grandfather
    Dilettante grandfather 21 September 2022 08: 57
    0
    The use of tactical nuclear weapons is extremely unlikely. The best scenario is a symbiosis of the first and second. True, the forces for both at once, most likely, will not be enough.
  10. APASUS
    APASUS 21 September 2022 08: 59
    +3
    Fortune telling on coffee grounds, and there is also the option that winter is on the nose and Europe will try to negotiate with the Russians, at the expense of Ukraine.
    There is also an option..............
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 21 September 2022 09: 29
      0
      Quote: APASUS
      winter is on the nose and Europe will try to negotiate with the Russians, at the expense of Ukraine.
      There is also an option....

      What are the options, when they themselves shivered in their pants with joy, supplying the Nazis with weapons and were thrilled with happiness, cursing the Russians. The option is simple, as in the "Station for two" - "On my own, on my own, on my own...."
  11. Mouse
    Mouse 21 September 2022 08: 59
    +4
    writes the American magazine The National Interest

    Of course, they can write at least a hundred scripts ... and Russia, as always, will do everything in its own way ... bully
  12. opposite28
    opposite28 21 September 2022 08: 59
    0
    Concerns about the general nature of mobilization seem to be groundless: State Duma deputy Alexander Borodai recently said that general mobilization is not needed, the problem will be solved by the call of military specialists.
    The newly minted deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, represented by Boroday, has a clear "gift" of sobriety and farsightedness. A true "healthy lifestyle" activist. With care for the younger generations of the population of the Russian Federation in every Russian home. Donbass offspring of fresh ideas.
  13. Mikhail Drabkin
    Mikhail Drabkin 21 September 2022 09: 00
    -1
    —-Aleksey Nikolaevich Kosygin told the reporters "Don't tell me what is and what will be." Meaning the unconditional goals by which he measured his subordinates. Red director and Stalinist minister.

    —- With regard to the NWO, the opposite is true: “Keep silent about the future, but report the situation in real time.” The future, as you know, either the shah dies, or the donkey dies ...
  14. Elysium
    Elysium 21 September 2022 09: 02
    +1
    Emmanuel Macron yesterday tried to get through to Vladimir Putin - they did not connect.
    laughing
  15. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 21 September 2022 09: 08
    +1
    It is not for nothing that French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday tried to get through to Vladimir Putin - not connected.
    It's a telephone conspiracy! Theirs or ours? If they have, then they may be cold. And if we have, then they are simply tired of Macron. After all, he is ringing the same thing "Russia owes the world, Europe, France, me" request
  16. alexleony
    alexleony 21 September 2022 09: 15
    +3
    Scenario number three has begun to be implemented, the rest will follow later, if necessary.
  17. HUMANOID
    HUMANOID 21 September 2022 09: 19
    +1
    Russians harness for a long time, but they go fast .It seems the president signed a decree on partial mobilization.Now we will hear a howl from the west overlapping the sound of air raid sirens
    1. connoisseur
      connoisseur 24 September 2022 20: 04
      -1
      Russians harness for a long time
      , and then they often change their minds about going at all ... laughing
  18. dimbasic
    dimbasic 21 September 2022 09: 19
    0
    The 3rd option has become a reality. I wonder how many people are mobilized? 500 thousand? 1 million? and more?
  19. Alexga
    Alexga 21 September 2022 09: 21
    0
    In my opinion, the first option is interesting, cut off Ukraine from the sea, go to Moldova and, thus, solve the problem of significantly weakening Ukraine. Everything is clear here. But I want to talk about the fourth option. For a long time now, the Western press has been talking about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Why? I think the answer is something like this. Why do they want to see it applied? Nobody knows what it is or how it works. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not indicative. Peaceful cities with wooden-paper buildings could burn out from a match. The civilian population without means of protection. Chernobyl is also not an example. Explosion of a reactor with 32 tons of active radioactive material. Infection of large areas. How all this affects a person has not been studied practically from the word at all. Yes, thousands of X-rays are deadly, but this is at the reactor and above it. So? It is fashionable to talk about an increase in the incidence due to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Cancer and more. But cancer cells were destroyed by radiation. And secondly, in Belarus, a radiological reserve has been created in the zone, and both animals and birds live and feel very well there. And we are not much different from animals. Yes, there during this time a herd of cows was created from those that were left during the evacuation. I'm not talking about Fukushima. At the moment there is no clear picture of what happens after a nuclear explosion. That's why there was a desire in the West to look at it. The main thing is not at home. And Ukraine is the very place, a large territory, not included in any protective blocks. And there are no defenders in the world, everyone has their own interests. Yes, I forgot about the exercises in the Totsk camps. Then the tanks went through the epicenter of the explosion after 2 hours. And nothing, they were successful. I had a conversation with direct participants in those events. So there are a lot of supporters of the fourth option overseas. I apologize for so many letters!
  20. Oorfene Juice and his wooden soldiers
    Oorfene Juice and his wooden soldiers 21 September 2022 09: 24
    +1
    Life crosses out all speculative scenarios.
  21. alex-defensor
    alex-defensor 21 September 2022 09: 34
    0
    French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday tried to call Vladimir Putin - they did not connect

    Ah ... but it’s all some young telegraph operator’s fault laughing
  22. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 21 September 2022 10: 01
    +1
    Quote: Trapp1st
    Russians are killing Russians, so that's another question...

    The Russians are killing their enemies.
    1. Uprun
      Uprun 21 September 2022 10: 10
      0
      Solidarity, in the Second World War, the Vlasovites were not stroked on the head ....., the enemy has no nationality, because it is just an enemy ...., you are not him, he is you .... because he is an enemy.
    2. Zaurbek
      Zaurbek 21 September 2022 10: 18
      0
      Depending on which bell tower to look at. With ours - Yes ... with the EU and the USA - the natives cut each other .... they don’t even need the victory of one of the parties. The process is important.
      1. Uprun
        Uprun 21 September 2022 11: 00
        0
        And to me, ps .. ps ... to the EU bell tower ... and the EU is already going sideways, part of the economy will collapse ... and they don’t want to live like we did in 90 ..... so they buzz on their government...
        1. Zaurbek
          Zaurbek 21 September 2022 11: 09
          0
          In this case, yes .... you need to take care of your safety ....
  23. nik-mazur
    nik-mazur 21 September 2022 10: 15
    0
    Scenario one. Russian troops, which will receive new reinforcements after the referenda, will launch an offensive against Odessa.
    The most logical and most likely development of events. A hundred from Kherson and Zaporozhye will be added to the already existing one hundred and fifty thousand, plus the Donetsk and Luhansk military will become part of the Russian army and another hundred and a half or two from the reserve. Almost half a million is obtained, and this is not counting the rest of the army, not involved in the operation. It is quite enough to go to Odessa, especially considering that we have already reached Kherson.
    Then press from south to north. Kharkiv in such a situation will have practically no meaning for anyone, and it will be easier for Ukraine to leave it than to keep it.
    On the other hand, it is possible that it is precisely because of the obviousness of such a scenario that it will not be implemented - as it were, it is undesirable to do what the enemy expects ...
  24. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 21 September 2022 10: 15
    0
    For example, how will Ukrainian grain be exported?


    As far as I understand, it will be grown mainly on the territory of the Russian Federation ... There the main regions for grain are Nikolaev, Odessa, Kherson .... Zaporozhye
  25. rocket757
    rocket757 21 September 2022 10: 28
    +1
    . It is not for nothing that French President Emmanuel Macron tried to call Vladimir Putin yesterday - they did not connect.
    . What to talk about with them?
    Maybe events will start returning to the logic that should have been from the very beginning .... LET'S LOOK.
  26. Mitia68
    Mitia68 21 September 2022 21: 12
    0
    Weird. Wanted to read the original.
    I went to The National Interest website and carefully looked through everything - there is no such article there!
    Does anyone have a direct link?
    1. Mitia68
      Mitia68 21 September 2022 21: 50
      0
      All. I found it myself - it turns out to be an article from September 19:
      https://nationalinterest.org/feature/west-won’t-russia’s-next-move-ukraine-204873
  27. Yuri Sotnik
    Yuri Sotnik 23 September 2022 14: 34
    +1
    Option five, everything will turn into a long-term positional conflict, similar to the Afghan one, and we will be stuck 20 km from Donetsk, for 15 years. help to the Ukrainian people.
    Option six: Armed Forces of Ukraine, being strengthened by the received weapons and mob. the reserve will continue to cut our flanks, they are good at it so far. And drive the invading army from its territory. We, as usual, will announce that everything is according to plan ...
  28. Munhausen
    Munhausen 24 September 2022 17: 33
    0
    A fifth option could have been proposed. Offensive on all fronts and the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In general, foreign analysts often come up with good ideas themselves. As in this case with the rationale for each of them.
  29. connoisseur
    connoisseur 24 September 2022 20: 31
    -1
    It is not for nothing that French President Emmanuel Macron tried to call Vladimir Putin yesterday - they did not connect.
    I wonder why they connected before? Not enough brains to understand what Macron is? The freak revels in his "uniqueness" - what kind of perverts and in huge quantities the West has not demonstrated to us, and the geranthophile Makroshka is still alone (among the presidents). So he shows off like a fly on glass, and our gentlemen indulge him ...
  30. Eug
    Eug 24 September 2022 21: 04
    0
    As for me, the most likely direction is still Odessa. By November - the time when the "grain" agreement expires - some of the mobilized (say, those with experience in military operations) will have time to prepare, as needed (and ready) new units will replenish groups in different directions.