Today, many observers have begun to think and speak on the topic of appeals of the public chambers of Luhansk (LNR), Donetsk (DNR) and Kherson regions to the leadership on the appointment of referendums, the main issue of which will be joining Russia.
The comments are, let's say, ambiguous. From “They have nothing to do” to “What, Belgorod is no longer Russia?” and everything like that.
Snide statements based on attacks on the shelling of settlements in the Kursk and Belgorod regions and the desire of the three former regions of Ukraine to join Russia are really different things.
I managed to quickly contact people who still live, work and fight in the LPR and DPR. In different positions and in different ranks, but it is best to look through the eyes from there. To better understand the situation.
Everyone there is well aware that in the case of joining Russia as subjects of the Federation, Donetsk and other cities will not fly less. And DRG from the Ukrainian side will not stop penetrating. And the war will not stop in one hour.
Everything will remain as before, with one small exception: there is some chance that these territories will not be abandoned, like the Kharkov region, where Ukraine is now carrying out total cleansing of everyone who even a little sympathized with Russia.
Considering that the LPR and DPR have nothing to rely on in this regard, in fact, genocide will begin there. But for some reason, no one is delighted with such a fate there. And the latest "successes" of the Russian army indicate that the likelihood of such an alignment exists.
The situation is really difficult, and Kherson is well aware of this. Therefore, they really want to jump on the train, which seems to be still standing at the platform, but can take off without an announcement. People want to feel, if not safe, then at least be sure that Russia has really come forever, and not like in the Kharkov region.
In the LPR and DPR, the alignment is somewhat different. In general, so many people there already have Russian passports that, in fact, Russia is already there. But legally no. Of the more than two dozen people with whom I communicate, three do not have Russian citizenship, but given that they are generally people of difficult fate, it’s good that at least they gave me a local one.
So Russian passports, Russian numbers and diplomas are secondary. This is so secondary that talking about it is as ridiculous as counting on the fact that Ukraine will not shell Russian territory. It is clear what will happen. Even stronger than before, because earlier they seemed to be shooting at their own territory, captured by the separatists, and now it will be the territory of Russia. So everyone there, behind the "ribbon" is well aware that as it flew, it will continue to fly.
Ready for it.
And first of all, the transformation of the territory of the LPR and DPR into the regions of the Russian Federation. Or republics. At the same time, there is no one demanding protection and defense. Managed for eight years. Not without help, yes, but managed.
What today? It's simple: the supply is like that of Russian units. Not MT-12 "Rapier", but at least "Msta-B". Not the T-62 from the master's shoulder (whoever said that the T-62 is a chic tank - so let it go and fight on it), but at least the T-72B. And the supply of ammunition is human, and not like the beggars are served.
That's what Lugansk and Donetsk need. And as soon as the divisions of the republics become part of the Russian army, normal training and military leadership. This, of course, looks a little fantastic, but it is not harmful to dream even in Donetsk.
So, in reality, the goals of Kherson and Lugansk and Donetsk are different. The former need full-fledged protection, since the inhabitants of the Kherson region do not have such experience as the Luhansk and Donetsk republics. And they need not so much a fish as a fishing rod. More precisely, weapon, and they will be able to apply it there for their intended purpose. Checked.
In Kherson, the situation is different. It's scary there. There were no shots fired for eight long years, where people lived quite calmly. And now, when examples from the Kharkiv region pass before our eyes, and the Ukrainian media quite colorfully show how accomplices and traitors are treated in the former occupied territories, in the Kherson region for some reason they don’t really want such a development of events.
In fact, there are few ways. The first one is to stay on the ground and count on the mercy of the winners in the event of the return of Ukraine. The second is the flight to the republics or Russia. But in Russia, let's put it this way, no one is really needed. Moreover, another wave of people who have lost everything. The third is the Donbass path of development, that is, protecting one's own with all possible forces.
The whole point is that the residents of the Kherson region have practically no chance. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine are no longer the same as in 2014, and there is no such experience as the neighbors. Therefore, it remains only to rely on the Russian army. And feverishly work out any means of protection, including this referendum.
Oddly enough, it is more needed by the residents themselves, primarily in the Kherson region. They should get something like confirmation that they will not be abandoned, like Kharkovites. Therefore, in order to stop the fermentation in the minds of Kherson residents, the right to a referendum should be recognized, as well as its results, whatever they may be.
As for the DPR and LPR, my opinion here is the same as eight years ago: stop fooling people. I still cannot understand what is the meaning of eight years of soaking in hell, distribution of passports, recognition of the republics. Accept into the Federation and give the republics everything necessary for the normal defense of their borders. Not drop by drop, but buckets! And normal advisers, and not what was there until recently.
Actually, there are no options here. Because the Kherson region is a shield in front of the Crimea, and if things go according to the Kharkov or Sumy scenarios there, then all that remains is to dig trenches on the Crimean Isthmus and build bomb shelters in Crimean cities. So-so prospect, given that the readiness of the Crimean population for such changes is comparable to the capabilities of the inhabitants of the Kherson region. They have no readiness, waving flags is one thing, but sitting in the trenches is completely different.
That is, two areas will have to be defended. This is a normal development of events, considering that something went wrong with the offensive. And the fact that the LPR and DPR are able to protect themselves is a huge help.
It is clear that holding a referendum is not so easy. It is better to minimize the crowds of people at the polling stations and try to conduct voting remotely. This, of course, is more difficult than in Russia, but there is already some experience.
How much will this spur military action? In principle, the admission of republics and regions into the Russian Federation can turn the NMD into a conventional war with all the consequences that come from this, although there are more than enough reasons for war anyway.
Another issue (I have already raised this topic) is the division of Ukraine. Rumors have been circulating in certain circles for quite a long time that as soon as the process of rejection of the south of Ukraine begins, similar events may also begin in the west, initiated by Romania, Poland and Hungary, which have their own territorial considerations.
And all three countries have already been seen in certain encroachments. Poland is very actively erasing the borders, "uniting" the two peoples, moreover, the Ukrainian side actively helps in this already at the legislative level.
In Romania, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Marga spoke very frankly in such a way that he voiced his claims to Ukrainian lands. In Hungary, too, they are not sitting idly by, as evidenced by information from a closed meeting with Prime Minister Orban.
There are more and more people who want to cut off a piece from Ukraine, but we are primarily concerned about our own problems related to the LPR, DPR, Kherson and, in a good way, Zaporozhye region.
We are waiting for reports on the holding of referendums and their results. With hope for the future.