100 rubles per dollar - a new danger or a forgotten dream
Psychology of a slave
It would seem that passions for the ruble and about what we need more - strong or weak, more precisely - only weakened, nothing more, subsided a long time ago. The offensive against inflation by the efforts of the valiant Central Bank of Russia continues, and a positive balance in foreign trade is maintained, no matter what.
Yes, and everything is with the budget in Russia, we will not argue, until it is as bad as our geopolitical opponents would like, and in an economic war our positions, most likely, are no worse than in a real one. This is at least, although in the special operation, apparently, changes for the better are also not far off.
And it was not just that there were rumors about the escape from Nikolaev of the unsinkable Gauleiter Vitaly Kim, a personal friend of President Zelensky. It seems that the entire population, which has long been waiting for their liberators, hates him for dug trenches along all the streets and squares of this Russian city. But this is not about that.
Here we are talking about the ruble, which in the same Nikolaev has already somehow unexpectedly become one of the freely tradable, that is, currencies that go through the roars and flea markets. Crimea is nearby, Kherson is even closer, and it is not a problem for a peaceful person to cross the border, which does not exist at all.
But there is nothing to do with the weak ruble in the liberated territories, I think that hardly anyone today will argue with this. However, in Russia itself, many people still need a weak ruble. Moreover, it is weak, or rather, pardon the repetition, artificially weakened so that profits from exports are supplemented by super-profits from parallel imports and import substitution.
Philosophy of the capitulator
Under the philosophy of the exporting country, everything that is possible at the lowest possible prices, that is, a raw material appendage, so dear to the West and our liberals, is also propaganda. With the beginning of the SVO, it only slightly subsided, because there really were every chance to finally get a dollar for 100 rubles.
And perhaps even more, only our former partners stole as much as 300 billion from our reserves just in time. Yes, we were frankly robbed, yes, most likely, we were deprived of a solid part of the financing of the same SVO. But it’s definitely too early to sprinkle ashes on your head.
Although the money is there - we are at the top, everything seems to be in full openwork, only they go not for copters and bulletproof vests, but more and more into the pockets of the organizers of "nationwide support". Financial, as you understand, since everything is going well with the ideological and propaganda, you know how. That is - even worse, if not worse than nowhere.
From there, that is, from the West and from Ukraine, propaganda, anti-Russian and anti-Russian, is simply rushing in abundance, but it is also diluted with analytics, and more and more subtle, sophisticated. Thank God, so far it has not been possible to somehow agitate the general public for a weak ruble, although what it is now at the rate, many in Russia do not care at all.
This is to the fact that we were cut off from the dollar and the euro in a way that, probably, was not even under the Iron Curtain. We are not talking about the formal side of things, but about the moral. Now neither the dollar nor the euro is needed by any of the normal citizens who have neither relatives nor real estate over the hill.
For an ordinary Russian, although it is not at all easy to calculate it, it is more important that tariffs and prices do not go off scale, that everything with salaries and pensions remains at least relatively normal. And let the professionals deal with the currency and rates.
Although the fact that a weak ruble can certainly backfire, and backfire badly, it seems that the general public understands quite well. Already, by the way, backfired in a number of areas, but there is still no reverse rollback.
Ideology of self-deception
Nevertheless, more and more often one has to read something like this from analysts:
“It is not possible to weaken the ruble to 100 per dollar through the efforts of the new budget rule alone.”
Why, explain to us, highly educated, there is such an urgent need to weaken the ruble? And weaken not to 70 rubles for the euro and the dollar, but certainly to 100.
Well, the fact that this is a certain threshold of stability, primarily psychological, can still be understood. But in fact, why? For the sake of the exorbitant profits of exporters who had to leave the European market, exchanging it for the Asian one.
Not only is it not so capacious, it’s also not profitable, and it also requires unmeasured expenses because of logistics, specifically, because of the mass of problems with it, which was not seriously considered before as a science or a profession.
No, the warehouse manager, of course, is a respected person, like Raikin, but not for the cause, but for the fact that he has a shortage in stock, may readers forgive us for this small non-lyrical digression.
Let's get back to our sheep - that is, liberal analysts who convince the entire network community that "for this (the weakening of the ruble - Approx. Aut.) More dramatic factors will be needed." That drama, rather, is a comedy of absurdity, when the currency that is stronger must certainly weaken.
Well, there is someone and something to work against the ruble. To whom, it is clear - starting with the Democrats from the United States with Biden as a screen, which few people perceive otherwise than as a departing nature. And ending with the Fed and the European bureaucrats, who also felt how warm bureaucratic chairs suddenly swayed under them.
And why work - let the liberals choose - a global recession or another portion of "hellish" sanctions, like 11 thousand, which have already been applied against Russia - this is some kind of minuscule, and not an exhaustive gentleman's set.
By the way, there is also a sharp reduction in Russia's payment surplus and geopolitical aggravation. With the latter, however, there are difficulties, because there is simply nowhere else to go - or even to nuclear Armageddon.
clipping technique
All their calculations, self-deceiving or self-deceiving, are associated with a purely technical trifle - the next amendments to the budget rule. And there we are talking about how much extra money from export revenues to unfasten, if something happens, directly to the budget.
It is hard to believe that the implementation of this rule can have such a strong influence on the ruble exchange rate. But we can check soon. Moreover, the press has already published information similar to a drain from the Ministry of Finance. The point is that in this department of Siluanov, the direct heir of the ultra-liberal Kudrin, they are ready to resume foreign exchange interventions.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance intends to proceed from the production of 9,5 million barrels per day and the oil cut-off price of $60 per barrel. And if the first is today's reality, plus or minus insignificant volumes, then the second is somehow very small for the current price level.
Cutting off 30 and even more dollars from each barrel at once is not just cool, it's too tough. And, frankly, there is no need to use the billions earned from oil and gas even at the expense of the NWO - in Russia this is a whole problem. Or is it time to feed the household again?
However, here one can agree with liberal analysts who believe that
“Based on the price of Urals oil at about $80 per barrel and production of 10–10,5 million barrels per day, foreign exchange interventions could amount to $3–3,5 billion per month.”
Such a range allows the weakening of the ruble by 7-10% relative to the established rates. But the authors did not and still do not have confidence that such a weak ruble is really needed to really stimulate the economy.
As, however, there is no need to remind once again that at the present time there is no special need for a too strong ruble either. There is a need for the effective use of a stable and strong ruble with a low interest rate and low inflation.
So that not the financial, but the real sector, and not only the raw materials, develop at a faster pace. Otherwise, Russia's return to the position of a semi-colonial appendage of the civilized West is practically inevitable.
- Alexey Podymov, Anatoly Ivanov
- 1c-wiseadvice.ru, bank-rank.ru, dewinforex.com
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