Arestovich: There are few Russian troops on the left bank of the Oskol River, they do not have time to create a full-fledged defense line there

Alexey Arestovich, a freelance adviser in Zelensky’s office, who, as you know, announced the Ukrainian counteroffensive in both Kherson and Kharkiv regions, spoke out about the situation in the Kharkiv region. According to Arestovich, Ukrainian troops there are making efforts to reach the Lugansk direction.

A representative of a group of advisers to the office of the Ukrainian president said that this should happen "before the Russian forces have managed to create a fortified line of defense on the left bank of the Oskol River."

Arestovich:

In this regard, there is a race going on there, in the area of ​​the Oskol River. Our troops are trying to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskol, so that later they can take Liman. Or the Russians will create a line of defense there.

According to Arestovich, Russian troops “are few there, and therefore they do not have time to create a full-fledged line of defense”:

There is simply no one to fill it with. Therefore, it is possible for Ukrainian troops to break through these gaps.

According to Arestovich, with the success of the Ukrainian troops, "the collapse of the entire north of the Lugansk region may occur."

Recall that the day before, the Public Chamber of the LPR appealed to the head of the republic with an initiative to immediately hold a referendum on the entry of the LPR into Russia. Public activists in the DPR and the Kherson region addressed their authorities with similar proposals. The Russian authorities have not yet commented on these initiatives.

Comments

[MrFYGY]

That is, we retreated from the Kharkov region, we are sitting on the defensive near Kherson, the Wagnerites are seizing something in the Donbass, with very small forces. What happened to the Russian army after the "good will gesture" in March? No major advances, only retreats.

[Frost]

The contractors throw the latest self-propelled guns and tanks with full ammunition, do not destroy them during the retreat, scatter. Near Balakleya, the contract servicemen left their positions earlier than the Donetsk and Luhansk mobiles.

[dmi.pris1]

People went to a contract for the sake of earning money. They apparently didn’t tell them that they would have to fight ... I note that this does not apply to everyone. But in some parts of the Western Military District, preparations for war were definitely left to chance. Here one forum member warned of criminal liability for discrediting .So who discredits the army? Are not some father commanders and cowardly fighters themselves?

[Pereira]

It looks like the army is demoralized. Separate exploits no longer solve anything. 3 Corps seems to have remained on paper. Not to attack, there is nothing to defend.
Only General Brekhunkov is doing well.
What else will our strategists surprise us with?

[Lionnvrsk]

Quote: Pereira

What else will our strategists surprise us with?

What are yours? Liberty sofas?

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Hoarfrost

The contractors leave the latest self-propelled guns and tanks with full ammunition, do not destroy them during the retreat, and scatter.

You suck as you breathe.

[Pereira]

Is the shameful flight from Kyiv and Kharkov also nonsense?

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Pereira

Is the shameful flight from Kyiv and Kharkov also nonsense?

An organized withdrawal, but the SKA is shameful for the leadership.

[Pereira]

What kind of organized withdrawal is this if the T-90s are lost?
In the Second World War, at least a penal battalion shone for such an organization.

[edmed]

Quote: Pereira

What kind of organized withdrawal is this if the T-90s are lost?

If only, 45 T-72s, about 40 infantry fighting vehicles, in varying degrees of usefulness, 7 T-72 combat-ready already in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[Vend]

It's funny to watch how the trolls try to bring down the work of our guys

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Vladimir_2U

You suck as you breathe.

It doesn't work, unfortunately....

[man]

You suck as you breathe.
Nevertheless, it is a fact, no matter how bitter it is to admit ...

[Zoer]

And you look at the data of the Ministry of Defense on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ratio, at least 2:1, get an answer ...

[t200404]

Campaign she is not. As in principle. They thought there was, they saw it at parades, and it's all cardboard

[Prometey]

Well, at least it says what it is - dill use numerical superiority.

[Quote Lavrov]

But what, the art of war does not consist, among other things, in being able to create this advantage? Why did this become some kind of news for us, given that the 160 thousand grouping was initially involved? Or what, the calculation of the forces of the group did not take into account the fact that it was opposed by a million-strong army? Exactly the same calculation for local superiority in certain areas was made by us. Since similar actions of the enemy came to us ... not even a surprise, because many wrote about the danger, but some kind of expected surprise. And this is with our advantage in artillery and aviation! with our intelligence. How in modern realities can one justify the fact that the enemy has created this advantage? This is a question for yourself - how did you plan the operation, that now there are not enough forces and means, how did you break the concentration of enemy troops, how did you anticipate their deployment, how did you organize defense, including maneuverable.
You can not write off everything only on a numerical superiority. Yes, and according to the same BUSV, in fact, we had to hold the defense up to 3-5 times the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This means that the question is not only and not so much in the number of the enemy. And secondly - in planning!
But the main question is not even this - it is, but have we learned the lessons, taken measures to avoid repeating them? After all, otherwise we will again find ourselves in a situation where we will shrug our shoulders with the words - "well, there are more of them!" - that's the main question. Mistakes, if you learn from them, only make you stronger. And did we learn from the Kharkov "mistake" - that is the main question.

[RED_ICE]

And how much is left of the 160 thousandth group?

[Quote Lavrov]

Only the General Staff can answer this question for sure. According to various estimates + -200 thousand.
I understand the meaning of your question, but it doesn’t work like that, that 160 were introduced and only they are fighting, losing strength - additional forces and means are being transferred, units are being rotated, and so on.

[Trapp1st]

And how much is left of the 160 thousandth group?

How much is left is not clear, for some reason information about the talents of the fathers of the commanders is secret with us.

[Prometey]

Quote: Quote Lavrov

But what, the art of war does not consist, among other things, in being able to create this advantage?

Are you arguing or discussing? Yes - war is not only about who gets more meat. But it is almost impossible to carry out the assigned tasks with a limited contingent in such a territory. In general, I agree with your point of view.

[Zoer]

Quote: Quote Lavrov

But the main question is not even this - it is, but have we learned the lessons,

Removed... Now the mobilization will begin.

[Heaven]

There was not enough strength to advance. Now it turns out that there are not enough forces to create a reliable defense. This estuary has been stormed for 2 weeks already, it was possible to transfer troops from Vladivostok on their own. Since it is of such strategic importance for defense

[Arkady007]

Only mobilization seems to save the situation.
There are no other options.
Accordingly, a change in the leadership of the General Staff will also not hurt.
They have already said their word.

[coinsam]

In this case, Arestovich is "Captain Obvious". Judging by the fact that Ukrainian DRGs are constantly penetrating beyond Oskol, there are few Russian troops there, and it is not known where they will come from.

[Uprun]

My opinion is that you should not rush to conclusions .... Lucy disperses the victory, instills confidence in the heroes and panic on the other side .... Time will tell ...

[Nexcom]

Lucien has such a job - to overclock information. Well, it’s not for him to sit in a trench - they can bang there.

[Ivan Ivanov]

So the Kharkov breakthrough happened due to poorly organized defense and lack of reserves, a fact

[Pereira]

Time has shown that it is irretrievably lost, and Lucy, who disperses the victory and maintains morale, by and large turned out to be right. She achieved the result, surpassing General Brekhunenkov by a head.

[Ivan Ivanov]

Those. the country is big, but there is no one / nothing to fight? While Khokhlyat meat is put on the conveyor. War is an economic and human conveyor. Should work like clockwork. What do we have? And again - the shortage at the front reflects the confusion within society. It is impossible to make serious breakthroughs with such a motley, to put it mildly, society. This has been written about for a long time.

[Quote Lavrov]

Colleague, I have only two questions, if you will. Moreover, I’ll say right away that this is not opposition to your point of view, but only interest in your opinion on issues:
1. What, in your opinion, are the reasons for this very "confusion" in society?
2. How do you see the solution to the problem of this very "confusion"?

[Ivan Ivanov]

The recipes are all old - military economics, military propaganda. As h.o.k.l.s show, the agitprop base can be anything, even the most ugly. Personally, I'm closer to the socialist. Those who disagree with the line are at least eliminated from influential positions. The economy is built with the expectation of a potential enemy, if the goal is to win. In my opinion, the Spanish Republic lost precisely because of a lack of organization.

[Quote Lavrov]

Thanks for the answer. Very interesting thoughts. But new questions have also arisen:
1. Excuse me, but WHO will organize and conduct propaganda? And what values ​​will we protect? Those values ​​that in fact belong to a couple of dozen families, and we will be called upon to stand up for them while they continue to rule the national wealth? Or how will it be - their values ​​separately, and the values ​​of the rest of the people - separately? And the second defend the country for themselves and for that guy?
2. Yes, the problem is that sometimes an open opponent is much better than one who yells loudly about what a patriot he is! The enemy will point out your own mistakes to you, but such a "patriot" will work on your ass to the last, and then he will be the first to tear you apart, if a stronger power appears.

The Republic lost not only because of a lack of organization, but only because the tops of the various participants believed that victory was already in their pocket and began to save their strength for the subsequent struggle among themselves and share the power that had not yet been received.

[SKVichyakow]

Quote: Quote Lavrov

Thanks for the answer. Very interesting thoughts. But new questions have also arisen:
1. Excuse me, but WHO will organize and conduct propaganda? And what values ​​will we protect? Those values ​​that in fact belong to a couple of dozen families, and we will be called upon to stand up for them while they continue to rule the national wealth? Or how will it be - their values ​​separately, and the values ​​of the rest of the people - separately? And the second defend the country for themselves and for that guy?
2. Yes, the problem is that sometimes an open opponent is much better than one who yells loudly about what a patriot he is! The enemy will point out your own mistakes to you, but such a "patriot" will work on your ass to the last, and then he will be the first to tear you apart, if a stronger power appears.

The Republic lost not only because of a lack of organization, but only because the tops of the various participants believed that victory was already in their pocket and began to save their strength for the subsequent struggle among themselves and share the power that had not yet been received.

Your comment is blocked. There is no way to like.

[Ivan Ivanov]

The set of values ​​is also standard - socialist, liberal-bourgeois, nationalist, monarchist.
I think that the former are closer to most citizens. What would you protect?
In our situation, yes, there is a group of owners of national wealth, but the survival of the country as such is at stake, the enemy is serious, in case of loss they will be dismantled for spare parts, with no chance of restoring the existing one or building any other state.
With a closed opponent, there is experience in fighting, the main thing is the desire to use the experience. Now you can begin to get rid of personnel on the principle of active support / non-support of the NWO. Eg. at h.o.h.l.o.v, a unit is assigned to each oligarch. The same Akhmetov bought 300 for the army! drones. What did you buy, how did our business captains from hundreds of Forbes help? Kadyrov's cry about self-mobilization was supported by .. 2 heads of regions, the rest remained silent. This is a simple, clear criterion.

[SKVichyakow]

Quote: IvanIvanov

Now you can start to get rid of personnel on the principle of active support / non-support for HR

And how do you think, in reality, they will get rid of those who do not support?

[Ivan Ivanov]

Good question. Knowing the manner of our president's actions, this can only happen after a very serious kick.

[SKVichyakow]

Quote: IvanIvanov

Good question. Knowing the manner of our president's actions, this can only happen after a very serious kick.

I think hardly. He has the main American system of checks and balances. The entire financial block should have been replaced after the arrest of our accounts by the West, replaced? No. Then the balance of power would change.

[Foundling]

Probably writing from a trench? Or at least all the accumulations were transferred to the front.

[Pereira]

We have banned the state ideology. global pluralism. What do you want?

[Silver99]

The Russian army has always been shown as highly mobile, having transport aircraft and a huge fleet of vehicles, amphibious assault ships, it is not just strange, but shameful for the command of the RF Armed Forces to give excuses that someone does not have time somewhere, you can even transfer troops from Syria, not to mention territorial part of Russia. It's all about bad leadership.

[Quote Lavrov]

No colleague. The question of command is secondary. The right question, to paraphrase the classic a little - "and who put them in charge of the subdivision?" By what criteria were they chosen, how was the training carried out, how was professional suitability and the level of compliance with modern realities controlled, how were their reports that we were ahead of the rest ....

And now, let's just extrapolate these issues not only to the military command, but to all other areas of the country's activity. And we draw conclusions for ourselves.

[Two]

Something again does not converge between the speeches of the "talking head" and reality! Oh it doesn't fit...

[Smart ass_]

The funny thing is how respected members of the forum immediately believed the propagandist of the enemies, and began to vividly discuss that in fact everything is bad in the Russian army.

Moreover, they forget that the USSR was destroyed precisely by such sentiments. As "everything is bad in the Soviet Union, but good in the West."

[Pereira]

Yes, they believed the propagandist of the enemy. But in fact, our army is approaching Lvov.
Don't trust your enemies!

[Smart ass_]

And your task was to take Lvov?
Do you know how the quality of management is assessed from the point of view of management theory?
The result is subtracted from the goal vector.
It turns out the error vector. The larger the error vector, the lower the quality of control.
If there was a goal to capture Lviv by September 20, obviously, it was not achieved.
And if the goals are demilitarization and denazification, then it seems that they are being systematically achieved.
Weapons are destroyed, Nazis too.

[nik-mazur]

Sofa analnytics, of course, burn with napalm. The Russian grouping of 150 thousand people, consisting of paratroopers, marines, PMCs, Chechen volunteers, SOBRA, OMON, Cossacks plus republican formations, thrashed the enemy for five mobilizations. But all this is not a shield, the command does not understand anything, it is necessary to mobilize, because the Ukrainians returned a piece of the Kharkov region (which, in general, is not a priority in terms of strategy).
Not a single expert came up with the question: what for do we need mobilization, if even our army is not particularly involved?

[Ludoman]

Sofa analnytics, of course, burn with napalm. The Russian grouping of 150 thousand people, consisting of paratroopers, marines, PMCs, Chechen volunteers, SOBRA, OMON, Cossacks plus republican formations, thrashed the enemy for five mobilizations.

Yes, at least 10, still mobilized. The USSR lost 4 times more people than Germany and still won.

But all this is not shield, the command does not understand anything, it is necessary to carry out mobilization, because the Ukrainians returned a piece of the Kharkov region (which, in general, is not a priority in terms of strategy).

Well, yes, what is the significance of Izyum from the point of view of strategy, which was taken with battle and losses and we need it for an attack on Slavyansk, what is the significance of the rest of the Kharkov region, which we needed for an attack on Kharkov. If you have not understood yet, then we can win only by capturing the whole of Ukraine, and this is even theoretically impossible without mobilization.

Not a single expert came up with the question: what for do we need mobilization, if even our army is not particularly involved?

Apparently because the experts, unlike you, have not yet lost touch with reality. The entire army is involved, except for the units that are on rotation and replenishment and conscripts, and not only the army, there are also a bunch of Russian guardsmen and PMCs.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

The entire army is involved, except for the units that are on rotation and replenishment and conscripts

Oh, I kindly apologize - is it okay that I'm talking to you while sitting, Comrade General? By the way, what position do you hold in the General Staff, what are you being told about the state of the entire army?

Quote: Ludoman

... at least 10, they will still be mobilized. The USSR lost 4 times more people than Germany ...

That is, from your point of view, Ukraine is the USSR, and Russia is Germany? The fact that the Soviet army lost four times more people than the Wehrmacht is also an indicative bell.
The option that there will be no one to mobilize in Ukraine, as I understand it, is not being considered ...

[Ludoman]

Oh, I kindly apologize - is it okay that I'm talking to you while sitting, Comrade General? By the way, what position do you hold in the General Staff, what are you being told about the state of the entire army?

And what position do you hold that you claim that not all?

That is, from your point of view, Ukraine is the USSR, and Russia is Germany? The fact that the Soviet army lost four times more people than the Wehrmacht is also an indicative bell.

From my point of view, you understood what I meant, and there is nothing to distort here.

The option that there will be no one to mobilize in Ukraine, as I understand it, is not being considered ...

No, it is not considered unless you are going to launch a massive nuclear strike on Ukraine. Ukraine currently has a population of about 35 million people, so that you understand, fascist Germany lost 1939 million people from 1945 to 7,5, and the scale of the war was completely different then.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

What position do you hold

And I use open sources and therefore do not make categorical statements and do not pretend to be a specialist who knows what is there and how it really is.
Your turn to report, where do you get the information that the entire Russian army is unsuccessfully trying to stop the advance of millions of hidden ones?

Quote: Ludoman

Ukraine currently has a population of about 35 million people.

Less than 35 million lived in Ukraine until February of this year. There is a suspicion that now much less. Accordingly, Ukraine cannot afford to lose seven and a half million, like Germany. Moreover, Ukraine will not even be able to mobilize that much.
Although, what does Germany have to do with it, I still did not understand ...

[Ludoman]

And I use open sources and therefore I don’t make categorical statements and I don’t pretend to be a specialist who knows what is there and how it really is

What is it from? From TV?

Your turn to report, where do you get the information that the entire Russian army is unsuccessfully trying to stop the advance of millions of hidden ones?

Also from open sources. Do you know that all the ground forces of Russia has 280 thousand people, including conscripts? There are, of course, the Airborne Forces and the Marines, but there are not many of them. I remember here on VO there was even an article about how much we can really involve a person in a war, find and read it. There are not any millions of dill, but there are definitely a lot more of them now fighting than us.

Less than 35 million lived in Ukraine until February of this year. There is a suspicion that now much less.

The population of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022 is 41. This is without Crimea, but with the DPR and LPR. So before the start of the war, there were about 167 million refugees, by the way, do not forget that in Ukraine it is forbidden for men to leave the country, so the refugees are mostly women and children, and not combat-ready men who can be mobilized.

Accordingly, Ukraine cannot afford to lose seven and a half million, like Germany. Moreover, Ukraine will not even be able to mobilize that much.

Of course he can’t, but the fighting is now on a much smaller scale. 2-2,5 million people will be able to, not at the same time, of course. We can't kill so many without mobilization. By the way, Germany, with a population of 70 million, mobilized
17 people.

Although, what does Germany have to do with it, I still did not understand ...

This is for example, so that you understand that with the scale of the war that is now going on, we will not be able to kill as many dill as Ukraine can mobilize. So the mobilized will not end.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

2-2,5 million people will be able to, not at the same time, of course. We can't kill so many without mobilization

Well, when they put up, then it will be necessary to deal with mobilization. Now, what's the point in freaking out?

Quote: Ludoman

we will not be able to kill as many dill as Ukraine can mobilize.

Why can't we?

Quote: Ludoman

The population of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022 is 41. This is without Crimea, but with the DPR and LPR.

Funny joke.

Quote: Ludoman

From the tv

Where from?

By the way, what's up with your agenda? Have you already collected your duffel bag or are you waiting for the mobilized to replace you?

[Ludoman]

Well, when they put up, then it will be necessary to deal with mobilization. Now, what's the point in freaking out?

And the fact that mobilization will take many months and it needs to be carried out in advance does not bother you? Apparently in our government the same geniuses work.

Why can't we?

Because our contractors will be killed faster than they are all mobilized by Ukraine. If you are not aware, then we are suffering serious losses that cannot be replenished by volunteers.

By the way, what's up with your agenda? Have you already collected your duffel bag or are you waiting for the mobilized to replace you?

As soon as mobilization is announced and another summons is sent, I am ready to fight.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

Because our contractors will be killed faster than they are all mobilized by Ukraine.

So far, 150 thousand of our contract soldiers have mowed down so much of the enemy that he needed five waves of mobilization.

Quote: Ludoman

If you are not aware, then we are suffering serious losses.

I don’t know, because this data is not available in open sources, and I don’t have the necessary clearance.
But how do you know what losses we are suffering?

Quote: Ludoman

As soon as mobilization is announced and another summons is sent, I am ready to fight.

And now what prevents you from going to war on the first agenda?

[Ludoman]

So far, 150 thousand of our contract soldiers have mowed down so much of the enemy that he needed five waves of mobilization.

Isn't it possible to learn to think at least 2 steps ahead? You have tactical thinking, but you need to look strategically.

I don’t know, because this data is not available in open sources, and I don’t have the necessary clearance.
But how do you know what losses we are suffering?

Unlike you, I have friends who fought there and are still fighting there, even 1 friend was already wounded by shrapnel, recovered and went to fight again. So I know what's going on there.

And now what prevents you from going to war on the first agenda?

That the arguments are over? We have transgressed to the main argument of idiots. There are many reasons why I won’t go as a volunteer, I’m already tired of listing them to such clever people, but I’m ready to fight on mobilization because I am a patriot. And there is something I have already sniffed gunpowder, so I'm not a couch mobilizer.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

You have tactical thinking, but you need to look strategically.

The employees of the General Staff can look and think strategically. And in principle, this is not available to civilians, due to the lack of information and the necessary competencies. That is, they can look and think, of course - who will forbid them - but only theoretically. But there is no way to plan. And even giving advice is pointless.

Quote: Ludoman

Unlike you, I have friends

Indeed, how could I have missed that only you have acquaintances who have been on the front line and know all our strategy. You probably chat with the officers of the General Staff every day in the smoking room. Or maybe even ... you intersect with Himself?
Well, judging by the above and the fact that you know everything about me, you probably work in the special services and in considerable ranks?

Quote: Ludoman

There are many reasons why I won't volunteer... I'm not a couch mobilizer.

I already understood, you can not make excuses.
I just didn’t understand why or why the summons was sent to you ...

[Ludoman]

I already understood, you can not make excuses.

make excuses? These are not excuses, but my position. And fair.

I just didn’t understand why or why the summons was sent to you ...

They sent me a summons to offer me to volunteer at the military registration and enlistment office.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Ludoman

to offer in the draft board to join the volunteers.

Military commissars broke off.

[Smart ass_]

Yes, they either pee in their pants and want to see their mother, or they post all this on purpose.
This is the basis of psychological warfare - to demoralize the enemy.
When I see a demoralizing comment, I immediately understand that it’s either a stupid person, or a mother’s son, or an enemy.
And maybe all together))
In any case, they thereby deprive themselves of the pleasure of living and breathing to the fullest.

[nik-mazur]

Quote: Clever_

they either pee in their pants and want to see their mother

By the way, the mobilization expert who answered me briefly mentioned in one of his comments that he was sent a summons. The context was such that the entire Russian army is already in Ukraine, unsuccessfully trying to hold back the advance of five mobilizations, so we are rowing everyone in a row. But also unsuccessfully, because no one wants ...

[chingachguc]

Dill public shows a prisoner from Wagner, captured in the Kupyansk region. I don't know if it's true or not. But if true, Wagner is occupying more and more new sectors of the front. And this speaks of a deep crisis in the Russian Army, which is unable to fight for real. PMCs - the core of the new Russian Army?