Related activities and events
The largest summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization since its founding has taken place. The strategic importance of this event is characterized not only by the largest number of participating countries and the range of issues under consideration, but also by a number of related activities and events. In a short period of time fit: an extremely sensitive counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, a serious outbreak of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a visit by the Roman pontiff to Kazakhstan, a simultaneous visit to Astana by Chinese President Xi Jinping and, as a “bonus”, a two-day military marathon on the Tajik- Kyrgyz border.
For a long time already, international forums have not been held in such a cloud of events, and even in different directions. In this regard, it would be a serious oversimplification to consider the talks on the sidelines of the SCO and their outcomes outside the above context, but most importantly - outside the Russia-led NWO in Ukraine. In addition, along with the long-announced expansion of the SCO organization, it was necessary to show the focus and practical ability to collectively solve complex problems, the main of which, of course, is Afghanistan at the moment. However, along the way, we also saw how the United States de facto excluded Armenia from work in this organization, and its entire “space” was logically occupied by Turkey and Azerbaijan. However, with the explicit consent of the ruling bloc in Yerevan itself.
For the Russian society, the results of the SCO are also important because for an attentive reader and viewer in them, especially in the final press conferences following the results of the negotiations, one can finally penetrate the information fog of the SVO and look at its initial tasks, intermediate results and processes, with which it was accompanied in terms of work with partner countries: India, Iran, China, and Turkey.
First of all, it should be noted the preliminary double visit to Kazakhstan by Pope Francis and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The author in a number of articles has repeatedly emphasized that Russia has rather strongly distanced itself from the problems and issues in Central Asia, fully concentrating on the "Western Front". Back in July, the contours of a kind of form of self-organization of the Central Asian countries became visible during the IV Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, which marked the beginning of the practical work of a new regional format "3 + 2" (Kazakhstan - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan plus Tajikistan - Turkmenistan) under the informal chairmanship of Astana. After the stabilization of the internal situation, Kazakhstan made attempts to take a leadership position in the region, which are supported by a significant package of reforms in the future. There were also noticeable attempts to form separate investment programs based on the resources of the Middle Eastern monarchies.
The visit of the Chinese leader to Astana before the SCO summit was, on the one hand, a form of support for K. Zh. Tokayev before the launch of reforms, on the other hand, it removed one of the most discussed issues in Kazakhstani society from the agenda: the threat of separation of the Russian-speaking population. Now it does not matter that this question is rather hypothetical and frankly provocative, in fact it is seriously shaken up in the media sphere in Russia, and in Kazakhstan itself this is a favorite horse of nationalists.
“No matter how the international situation changes, we will continue to strongly support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, firmly support your ongoing reforms to ensure stability and development, and categorically oppose interference of any forces in the internal affairs of your country.”
This quote from the Chinese leader, albeit taken out of context, is now roaming the Kazakh public.
In fact, we see that China acted as a guarantor of the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan, moving this issue down from the top of the rating. At the same time, ten agreements on economic issues and investments were signed, which broke a pause of several years. Thus, before the SCO, China "blessed" K. Zh. Tokayev for reforms, writing him a kind of "mandate of heaven" in the Chinese tradition.
For Russia, this is important because China, while the Kremlin is busy with the western direction, is taking on the role of Kazakhstan's curator as the center of the Central Asian economic hub. At the same time, the same direct blessing was received from the Vatican, which represents the economic and political interests of the so-called aristocracy. Old Europe. But the role and essence of the pontiff's visit to Central Asia will need to be discussed in a separate article, since the issue is both non-trivial and broad at the same time.
Alternative center for the development and implementation of large-scale initiatives
And now, after such “preparatory work”, after it, meetings begin directly within the framework of the SCO, where the participants initially set the most important task to reach the level of an alternative center for the development and implementation of large-scale initiatives. It is quite logical that the participants also initially chose the Afghan issue as such a trial balloon. Formally, Afghanistan is part of the expanded structure of the SCO, but was not invited as an official delegation for purely protocol reasons, since its current government is not legitimized at the international level.
We have already considered the fact that Afghanistan is artificially put on a “financial diet” by the US, and through the new government in Pakistan, Washington is gradually pushing the leadership within the Taliban to one of the most notorious paramilitary groups. But today, Pakistan itself needs all possible support after the flood. And now, within the framework of the SCO, the President of Russia is voicing specifics on the implementation of the long-frozen TAPI gas project (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). TAPI cannot be carried out in the current conditions without the support of literally all the participants, because such a gas pipeline will require not only Turkmen gas itself, but also Russian gas, which is already in excess of production, as well as free funds and military guarantees.
In addition to the construction of the gas pipeline, the President of Uzbekistan Sh. Merziyoev proposed to create within the framework of the SCO and a special fund for the humanitarian support of Afghanistan, that is, to form just the same mechanism for parallel financing of Kabul, in addition to the United States. However, we note the following phrase of Sh. Merziyoev:
“I would like to especially thank my colleagues for supporting the recent Tashkent conference. Participation in it of the Afghan delegation, representatives of many states and international organizations, including the SCO...”
But this is already a direct reference to the very landmark IV Consultative Meeting, where the new “3 + 2” format was formed for the region. Because the Tashkent International Conference on Afghanistan was held immediately after its completion, in fact, non-stop. And such a formulation of the question suggests that this format will continue to develop, with Kazakhstan as a moderator and China as a regional curator. At the same time, the Uzbek leader called for the formation of an international assistance program for Pakistan.
Thus, we see that the SCO members in a particular direction have really integrally approached solving problems with the support of the “moderates” in Kabul, pulling Pakistan along in this direction and forming a project in which almost the entire region is involved. Such integrality is the very feature that separates regional political and economic forms of organization from geopolitics.
Two full-fledged armed conflicts took place right during the SCO summit - the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Tajik-Kyrgyz. Both conflicts have a different background, but, obviously, already have a different fate. If Armenia, represented by its leader, actually abstained from negotiations with Baku, refocusing on the promises of the White House and the visit of the old Shapoklyak-2022 N. Pelosi, then Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan jointly froze hostilities precisely on the sidelines of the summit. But these issues will be dealt with substantively (the hostilities will probably still flare up in episodes) will begin already within the framework of the same “3 + 2” group, which unobtrusively and without fanfare has become an informal part of the SCO. And in this matter, the group will demonstrate its effectiveness, but without activation within the framework of the CSTO.
Unfortunately, the situations that took place during the SCO and immediately preceding it clearly showed that the CSTO format has finally turned into a nominal structure. At the meeting on Karabakh a day before the summit, no one expressed a desire to form even nominally a peacekeeping contingent, and all the Central Asian states are already afraid to use the Russian armed forces, so as not to pull on the “national question” under the guise of maintaining sovereignty. This is such a stalemate, because no one formally wants to leave the CSTO yet, but does not see the need to use the structure for substantive resolution of issues. Why such a strange position? And because Afghanistan is close at hand. If something really threatening happens on this track, and here you will have to ask Moscow. Not the most "allied position", but a pragmatic one: "After all, we simply do not distract the Kremlin from the most important thing."
Meanwhile, the Kremlin itself was in dialogue with China, Iran and India, and even modest and well-formatted press conferences following the results of the negotiations showed how many underwater threads and ropes were stretched behind the NWO curtain. Each of the three press conferences is unique in its own way and reveals in a special way the international aspects of Russia's campaign in Ukraine.
For Iran, and this was once again officially announced, joining the EAEU is one of the priorities. And this is actually a promising step, since it gets access to a colossal sales market compared to the previous period, close geographically and logistically. The phrase about the "non-negotiability" of the United States and the actual incapacity of the EU, in fact, emphasizes that Iran no longer has the highest hopes for the so-called. "nuclear deal".
An example of a responsible world power...
With India and China, the situation looks much more complicated. The Americans (for example, the first edition was Politico), who closely followed the meeting with the Chinese leader, instantly drew attention to the following words of the Russian leader:
“We highly appreciate the balanced position of Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis. We understand your questions and concerns in this regard. During today's meeting, of course, we will explain in detail our position on this issue, although we have spoken about this before.”
In other words, it is obvious that circumstances develop in such a way that some special separate explanations are required, on which attention should be focused. This is the first episode of its kind since the beginning of NWO. The fact is that the leaders of the countries have repeatedly discussed both the causes of the NWO and its prerequisites, as well as, at least, the framework and general contours of the campaign, and its time limits. The Chinese leader was relatively brief, saying that
“We are ready, together with our Russian colleagues, to set an example of a responsible world power and play a leading role in putting such a rapidly changing world on a path of sustainable and positive development.”
And this emphasis on “responsible power” also sounded rather unusual.
At a meeting with an Indian colleague, we hear similar notes:
“I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, your concerns that you constantly express. We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible.”
And N. Modi's answer:
"I know that this is not an era of war... Democracy, diplomacy, dialogue... I welcome the opportunity to get to know your point of view."
All news The tape was bypassed by Xi Jinping's phrase:
“China is ready to support Russia on issues affecting the fundamental interests of the two countries,”
however, it was not included in the official final transcript and was already transmitted through the Xinhua news agency, as if "from inside" the negotiation process.
If we try to translate all these signals and gestures into a language understandable to the layman, then Russia's largest partners - India and China during the meetings wanted to get an answer to the question of how Moscow sees in specifics not the NWO itself, but its result. Kharkov events of recent days did not add optimism in this matter, from the word "absolutely". And now the answer to one of the main questions in Russian society this year is clear: “What were the initial framework of our NWO”?
And the framework was such that the NWO was indeed not envisaged as a long-term military operation, one of the consequences of which would not only be the formation of a multipolar world, but also the collapse of European industry and demand in the European market. Now it is clear that one of the results of the campaign should have been only the weakening of the grip of that octopus, which we call, albeit rather conditionally, “globalist”, on the neck of European industrial capital. And if in the summer we could explain the delay by changing the format of the NWO, tactics, etc., then after the September events, all this began to raise questions from those partners who substantively support Russia under sanctions pressure, and it has a colossal and boomerang effect on the economies of these states .
All this explains just the fact that Russia, until the very last moment, even causing sincere bewilderment in the Russian society, did not seek to cut the gas and oil threads with the European Union, constantly leaving itself some space for dialogue, even if it put up with growing internal criticism. Of course, our media told us that the EU would “freeze” and experience all the charms of the Middle Ages, but few could have imagined that the leaders of the EU were leading to this, consciously and purposefully. Yes, the rational message for Europe and its certain circles was clear, but the very goal-setting of dialogue as a generally understandable final stage of the conflict was erroneous.
As a result, even the “rational delay” of the operation on our part began to play against not only the EU itself, but also against the economies of India and China, but this, apparently, was no longer included in the plans, and, in fact, could not be included. The position of the EU leadership is not a collective form of schizophrenia, but a purposeful and conscious policy to collapse its own market. The Kharkov events, of course, did not “defeat” Russia, as the Western media write, and some of ours too, but highlighted such a wave of problems in the organization that everything froze in place.
And now Russia finds itself in a very difficult, even stalemate situation - the main partners are ready to lend a shoulder for some time, which, for obvious reasons, is not known, but can be roughly determined logically. During this time, Russia must either achieve its original goals militarily, or reduce the operation to a dialogue. But, given the very goal-setting of the EU leadership, such a dialogue is impossible in principle. Not on terms A, or B, or C.
Therefore, in a conversation with N. Modi, the Russian leader said bluntly, but, leaving himself room for maneuver in the future,
“Unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its abandonment of the negotiation process, declared that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, as they say, “on the battlefield.”
European Broiler 777
The problem is that the EU leadership is behaving like the pilots from the famous Broiler 777 series: “Captain, we are falling! Yes, navigator, of course! ”, And our main partners in the SCO convincingly insist that the Broiler 777 flight should be anything but prevented from touching the ground. In the current situation, this is about the same as forcing a patient to eat by force, only the problem is that the patient is hiding from you with armed guards.
This is a truly unique dilemma - in order to defeat Ukraine in a real time period, it is necessary to kill the EU economy, which (the economy) cannot be finished off, and therefore it is impossible to end the conflict in a real time period. This Gordian knot can be cut either by some very radical military steps, or by freezing the conflict, with the understanding that after some time the war will break out much more seriously and on a larger scale, since Kyiv will build up strength during this time, and it will not do anything else and not necessary.
It is obvious that none of the partners imagined such a lengthy Russian operation in Ukraine, perhaps no one, even the Ukrainian curators themselves, imagined this, but the fact remains, and so far it remains only to nod at themselves.
The SCO summit showed the realistic outlines of a new partnership in the future "Eastern Economic Cluster", and it cannot be said that they are not positive in general. We got less than we planned, but much more than we could have given the scale of the economic turmoil.
Yes, we see Turkish hyperpragmatism when we exchange anti-sanctions partnership for the provision of grain for the Turkish hub (as one of the results of negotiations with R. Erdogan in Samarkand), the cunning position of the Central Asian neighbors and partners in the CSTO in the context of the threat to Afghanistan, but, on the other hand , Iran, China and India are willing to take on some of the burden while Russia is at the forefront and not demand the impossible.
Nevertheless, Russia’s time reserve for solving the “Broiler 777” dilemma is far from infinite, and steps here will have to be taken very harshly and decisively, because if Russia “eats” and “plays” this handicap out of habit, then we will have to live practically alone, spending all the resources to fight the Kyiv psychiatric clinic.